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Tips for Capping Bowl Games

Tips for Capping Bowl Games As Old Dominion and Eastern Michigan have accepted bids to for the Popeyes Bahamas Bowl, its time to start Capping College Football a bit differently than the regular season.  All of the tools involved capping teams still apply, but some other elements come into play.  Power Ratings still apply, and even though I have Old Dominion -2 against Eastern Michigan on a neutral there are many other...

VIDEO: College Football Handicapping – Start with ...

Here is our very first video, College Football Handicapping – Start with the Fundamentals. The video is based on this article written last year by Jeff Fogle.        If you enjoyed the video, please subscribe to our YouTube Channel. We’ll be adding more videos as we head towards kickoff, and we will have a weekly video pick during the...

Rush to Judgment: Common Sense Handicapping for th...

Rush to Judgment: Common Sense Handicapping for the Running Game One of the best starting points for handicapping an individual college football game, or for generally understanding a team’s approach to winning, is to look at how often they run the ball. In college football, there are a handful of teams who rush as much as 80% of the time. On the other end of the spectrum, there were 15 teams last season who rushed 43% of...

Handicapping Turnovers in College Football

Turnovers are a monkey wrench that can derail the best laid handicapping plans or analytical assessments. Because that happens a fair amount of the time in college football, you’ll often hear variations of “turnovers are random,” “turnovers are more about luck than anything else,” and “you can’t handicap turnovers.” In terms of the exact specifics, it’s true that you can’t handicap when and where turnovers are going to...

Betting Spreadsheets 102: Breaking ESPN’s ga...

This Betting Spreadsheets post assumes a basic level of familiarity with Microsoft Excel. I would suggest opening Excel and trying to replicate what I explain below. If you run into issues, feel free to contact me. I just started using ESPN to bring in box scores to my database. I never wanted to use them in the past because it required a lot of manual work to get each individual gameid. If you pay attention to website...

College Football Stats – Focus on what they ...

Focus on What Stats MEAN, Rather Than Numbers Before the college football season starts is a good time to focus on evaluating the statistics that you’re about to see accumulated on a game-by-game basis.  What’s been considered a recent “analytics revolution” in the world of sports hasn’t really taken hold in college football. Sure, there have been advancements in strategy, and some new stats that strive to evaluate players...

Be Flexible, and SMART With Power Ratings

Be Flexible, and SMART With Power Ratings  Many handicappers use Power Ratings or Computer Ratings to get a quick assessment of teams when evaluating college football. It’s important not to be blinded by those ratings when contemplating erratic teams who rarely play to their projections.  A great example of this phenomenon is the Baylor Bears of 2013. Under head coach Art Briles, Baylor is a high octane team that loves to...

Halftime Wagering – Second Half Betting Stra...

Halftime Wagering – Second Half Betting Strategies  Last week we talked about creative ways to bet underdogs using first quarter and first half options in college football. Seems natural to move to strategies for attacking second half pointspreads this week.  One of the main points of that discussion was that “live” situational underdogs often fade in the second half because they run out of gas, or because their...

Getting Creative With Underdogs

It’s common knowledge in the sports betting industry that recreational bettors prefer betting favorites to betting underdogs. They feel more comfortable investing in the superior team. They believe there’s “insurance” because a favorite can struggle for a half or three quarters before pulling away at the end to cover the spread anyway. And, they’ve probably fallen prey to media hype that usually surrounds the superior team...

College Football Handicapping – Start with t...

Start with the Fundamentals When Handicapping College Football Because the college football betting markets are still largely influenced by overall power ratings and team quality perceptions, you can find meaningful edges if you dig a little deeper to study the strengths and weaknesses of offenses and defenses.  It’s common in this sport to find games that are priced within a field goal or a TD where one team actually has a...

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