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College Basketball Value Betting Week of 3/2/15

College Basketball Value Betting Week of 3/2/15 Its hardly ever a good idea to blindly fade or bet for certain teams but there is opportunity to gain value betting against public perception. In last weeks article on who to buy and sell the teams suggested to buy went 2-2 while only one of the teams on the sell list underperformed. Iowa State was 0-2 last week ATS on the sell list but both Wichita State and Villanova were...

CCons College Basketball Pick 3/1

YTD record 4-3 UConn +1.5 The UConn Huskies face a ranked 23-5 SMU team at home today. This matchup is exactly two weeks since the SMU mustangs beat UConn by 18 points at home in the last matchup between these two teams. SMU has won seven straight road games and their last five overall. UConn is one in four ATS in their last five games. So why do I like UConn today? UConn needs a quality win to bolster their resume for the...

College Basketball Value Betting Week of 2/23

Now that we are in the final weeks of the college basketball season, there is solid value betting against public perception. Last week I gave out three teams to buy and three teams to sell. The three teams I suggested to sell (Arizona, Kansas, and Oklahoma) went a combined 1-5 ATS for the week. Like I advised the lines on these teams would be inflated giving us value betting against them. The teams that I gave a buy rating...

College Basketball Value Betting Week of 2/17/15

Down the stretch of the college basketball season is one the best times to find value betting against public perception. Public perception is engrained in bettors, which creates opportunity for those who know how to find it. Just like the stock market, the goal is to buy low and sell high. So here are some teams I’m buying and selling this week 2/17/15:   Sell #7 Arizona Wildcats - They have covered 8 of their...

Ohio State is the Clear National Champions

In last week’s preview, we talked about how Ohio State’s stats vs. Alabama represented “the boxscore of a champion” because of advantages at the point of attack, in third down conversions, and defense (holding Alabama well below its norms). We also talked about how Oregon’s blowout of Florida State wasn’t representative of what’s normally considered championship style football because champions don’t allow over 500 yards…and...

Previewing Oregon vs. Ohio State for the National ...

Previewing Oregon vs. Ohio State for the National Championship  Here in the extended interlude between the National Semifinals played on New Year’s Day, and Championship Night set for Monday January 12, let’s review the key stats from the Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl to see if they provide any hints about what to expect when Oregon battles Ohio State for college football supremacy… ROSE BOWL STATS Final Score: Oregon 59, Florida...

Previewing the College Football Final Four

Previewing the College Football Final Four College football’s long awaited National Championship tournament is imminent! Oregon will take on Florida State Thursday in the Rose Bowl, followed immediately by Alabama vs. Ohio State in the Sugar Bowl. The two winners will meet Monday night January 12 in the Cowboys cathedral in Texas to determine a champion. Here’s a quick look at what may be linchpin statistical factors in both...

Using “Conference-Only” Stats to Get Accurate Read...

Using “Conference-Only” Stats to Get Accurate Reads As a stathead, probably the most disappointing element of the “debate” this season about who belonged in college football’s Final Four was the absence of discussion about statistics. It’s as if everyone decided looking at stats was just too complicated, so let’s just follow some simple rules: Any undefeated Power 5 team gets in (Florida State) The SEC champ gets in...

“Analytics” and the Final Four

“Analytics” and the Final Four  If you’re involved with college football handicapping, or “analytics” in general, you were probably very frustrated this past weekend by the mainstream media discussions of the selection process for the national championship tournament. It wasn’t anywhere near a complete discussion. The networks generally had pundits who each voiced their opinion…and they kept repeating variations of that same...

How Big a “Pretender” is Florida State?

How Big a “Pretender” is Florida State? The Florida State Seminoles are providing quite a conundrum for the championship tournament selection committee. On one hand, a team that went undefeated in a Power 5 conference should obviously be included in the Final Four if they win this week’s ACC Championship game over Georgia Tech. It would be unprecedented to rank a team like that out of the championship contending mix. On the...