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Pezgordo’s Week # 12 College Football Picks

Pezgordo’s Week # 12 College Football Picks

Pezgordo’s College Football Picks – YTD: 73-58 ATS 

5-6 last week. I went 4-4 on posted picks and 0-1 with the newsletter ML parlay selection. I really blew it with my two late adds last week and I have been chastised by Trentmoney for turning a winning week into a loser. In this case Trent is 100% correct as the two late adds were “marginal” selections, at best.

Pezgordo’s Week # 12 College football Picks

North Carolina State +17

Good write-up here from jimmyshivers on this game.

Tennessee +4

I used this selection as our weekly SEC video pick (8-3 YTD) at SECPRESSPASS. A few quick reasons why I like the Vols this week. Despite their current bad run in the SEC and Vandy having a really solid team, Tennessee still has a lot more talent than Vandy. Second, the Vols can still gain bowl eligibility by beating Vanderbilt and Kentucky, so there should be no reason why they aren’t motivated to play this game. Lastly, they own Vanderbilt, especially in Nashville where they haven’t lost since 1982. In what I believe will be a very close, hard fought game, I will take the 4 points.

Purdue – Illinois U 51

The Illini offense is hapless. They are the worst offense in the Big 10 averaging 278 ypg and in conference play they have scored 7, 14, 0, 17, 22 & 3 (10.5 ppg). Defensively they aren’t much better ranking 9th in ypg allowed. However at home they are only allowing 26.77 ppg in Big 10 play and they held Penn State, Indiana and Minnesota under their offensive YPG season avg. The Boilers are only avg 18.83 ppg in Big 10 play and have scored no more than 28 points in a single conference game. We also have two of the worst QB’s in the league (Purdue is 9th & Illinois is 11th in pass efficiency. The Illini are 11th in the Big 10 in rushing and Purdue is slightly better at 7th. And for good measure, these are the two worst red zone offenses in the Big 10.

Iowa State – Kansas U 48

I watched Kansas last week against Texas Tech and came away a little bit impressed. They actually played pretty solid D and they can run the hell out of the ball. Based on my run numbers I actually have Iowa State’s run D ranked a little higher than Texas Tech’s. It is the Cyclone pass D that is not doing very well. With KU’s inability to throw the football (they rank last in the Big 12), hopefully this is a good match-up for Cyclone defense. Statistically these are the two worst offenses in the Big 12 with the two worst pass efficiency QBs (by far) in the league. These two also rank 8th and 10th in offensive red zone efficiency.

Ohio State +3 (Best Bet)

Good write-up here by GoSooners. Also some good info about Urban Meyers ATS record following a bye week. Based on my numbers I have this game more or less even, but I really like the QB advantage for Ohio State and just because you beat up on Indiana, Minnesota, Purdue and Illinois, that doesn’t all of a sudden make you a good team. Wisky has played three BCS teams with a pulse this year and they lost to all three of them. They also should have lost to Utah State.

Ole Miss +18.5

Sabert and I discussed this game at length yesterday and from a statistical standpoint I like Mississippi’s chances to stay within this number. Ole Miss scored 10 at Georgia and 14 at Alabama. LSU is allowing 17 ppg in SEC play and have allowed 10, 14, 21 & 17 to offenses that are not as (statistically) good as the Rebels. So I think Ole Miss will get a few scores in this game and wouldn’t be surprised to see them score between 13-17 points. The LSU offense is starting to find itself the past two weeks, but they still are not build to score 30+ points, an amount they have surpassed in one SEC game this season. And that final score last week (37-17) was misleading (100 int return w/ Miss State about to go in and make the game 30-24). On the other side of the ball the Ole Miss D is allowing 29 ppg in SEC play, but they have also played the three best offenses in the league (allowed 30 to A & M, 33 to Bama and 37 to UGA). I think LSU will need to score at least 35 points in this game and that is a number their offense has yet to attain in any SEC game this season. Also, for whatever reason, Ole Miss plays LSU tough in Baton Rouge (despite only 1 win in their last 5 trips to Baton Rouge, they’ve outscored LSU 124-120 and the 4 losses have been by an avg of 3.5 ppg).

Washington – Colorado U 55

My “only one team will score” theory didn’t work out last week with the Buffs at Arizona. However, I will admit that I had no idea that Arizona’s defense was that bad. Way back in May I made a futures wager on ASU +7.5 against the Cats (game is in Tucson next Friday), and I am feeling really good about it after watching the second worst tackling team I have seen all season (unfortunately Colorado is by far first). But this week we actually have a legit defense in Washington. In their last 3 PAC 12 games, against offenses that were much more potent than Colorado’s, the Huskies have allowed 17, 13 & 15 points. The UW offense has been struggling all season, averaging a little less than 19 ppg. I’ve got to believe that even if the produce their best offensive effort of the season (vs BCS competition), they still only score in the mid-30’s.  Also, the UCLA-CU total was lined at 59 (and went under 42-14). UW has nowhere near as explosive an offense as UCLA, but the UW defense is every bit as good (if not better) than the Bruins.

Utah PK (-115)

 

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25 Responses to “Pezgordo’s Week # 12 College Football Picks”

  1. SabertStxVii SabertStxVii says:

    Pez, I know you are the king of unders…what is the thought of Army vs Temple? Almost too bad of defenses that some silly scores might happen?

    Both teams run the ball a TON, eating up clock, and both teams kinda suck in the red zone and capitalizing. Thoughts?

    • Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

      Sabert, my numbers and correlations suggest over, mainly because these two D’s suck. Army is a strange team, sometimes they score a lot of points, sometimes they struggle, but they always seem to allow a lot of points.

      The Temple defense is terrible. I think Army beats them and I will take it a x closer look at the side.

  2. GoSooners GoSooners says:

    I like the Tennessee play. Thinking about getting that one too.

    • Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

      GS, I used the Vols as our weekly SEC video pick (8-3 YTD). I’ll have a short write-up on them later today or tomorrow and the video should be up soon.

      Hopefully Dooley can get them focused enough to play well. Motivation shouldn’t be a problem as they can still become bowl eligible w/ a win over Vandy & UK next week.

  3. doug says:

    Pez BOL with ALL or your action this week. Its almost time for a Strong weather total under. The SE part or the nation might hold a wind or rain under this week. You are most certainly the King of unders.
    I myself like that Kansas home dog, along with Baylor another Big 12 home doggie.

  4. PSUJustin says:

    Great website guys, I’ve followed your picks every week as of probably a couple of months ago. I play with a local and wanted your opinions… I’m taking Northwestern(+7), UCLA(+4), Miami(-7), Ohio State(+3), Oklahoma(-14) and LSU(-20). I think they are solid picks any thoughts?

    • SabertStxVii SabertStxVii says:

      Justin — thanks for following. I think you have some quality picks. I’ll comment on a few.

      I think OSU can win, therefore obviously cover. I am looking at taking them myself. Wisco has been beating up on crap teams and Urban has an extra week to prepare and something to prove.

      I like Oklahoma too. They have a good pass defense, and SHOULD absolutely torch the WVU defense if Landry has any amount of time.

      I think you definitely got the better of the LSU number. I think this one can be close. If Ole Miss scores 2 TDs I think you’re in trouble, although LSU should be able to grind away points.

      The others I haven’t looked at too much to comment.

    • Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

      Justin, we’re glad you like the site and thanks for the comment/question. My first suggestion would be to skip OU & LSU at those numbers. OU is currently -11 and you can get LSU -18. That doesn’t mean they won’t cover those spreads, but you want to avoid bad numbers as much as possible.

      I like Ohio State this week and I’ll write-up a brief summary of why I like Ole Miss, but it is mainly comes down to the combination that the Rebels should score 13-17 points, LSU has struggled on offense all season and Ole Miss has traditionally played the Bayou Bengals tough in Baton Rouge (for whatever reason).

      I will be looking at both USC/UCLA and USF/Miami today, but must admit I lean Trojans and Bulls. UCLA is greatly improved this year, but I don’t know that they are improved enough to beat the Trojans. Plus there is a big QB mismatch w/ Barkley vs the frosh Hundley.

      • PSUJustin says:

        Thanks for the suggestions. Hopefully it works out. My pick sheets use NCAA and NFL games. Only specific NCAA games are listed so I take the ones I think would hit. Here are my 2 tickets worth of picks.

        Ticket 1 (5 Team pick 15 to 1 odds) – Miami(-7), UCLA (+4), Green Bay Packers (-3), Cinci Bengals (-4), New Orleans Saints (-7).

        Ticket 2 (10 team pick 150 to 1 odds) – Northwestern (+7), Clemson (-19), Oklahoma (-14), Wake Forest (+24), Ohio State (+3), Tampa Bay Buc’s(-3), St. Louis Rams (-4), Indy Colts (+10), Baltimore Ravens (+3), Chicago Bears (+6).

        I know you guys don’t dabble in NFL games on your site but i just added those anyway. I understand the lines move but these are established Tuesday Morning and handed out. I like my odds on most of those picks but for what was available on the card i took the best options. I’ll let you know how they play out Tuesday morning.

        Good luck on your picks guys.
        PS. I left off the LSU pick based on your words of wisdom.

        P.S.S. I’m a huge PSU fan and follow the Big Ten like crazy. If you ever need some write-ups on big ten games, I could help you out if you’d like. I don’t have professional software just 20+ years experience in watching big ten games.

        • Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

          BOL this weekend Justin. I hope the Ole Miss game works out for me and I didn’t get you off a winner.

          When you get a chance send me an email at: pezgordo@saturdayedge.com. We have a few other Big 10 guys that are interested in contributing their insights and ideas about the conference, and I am thinking of some ways we can do that this off-season and for next season especially.

          Perhaps we could do a weekly Big 10 article like OpeningLine does w/ his weekly trends and situations.

  5. wes says:

    Pez,
    I’d like to get your side perspective on Illinois – Purdue this week.
    I have been fading the Illini most of the year but now they are getting 7 at home against a bad team in Purdue. I watched them the last 2 weeks and they have the talent to win this game IMO. Do you think vegas has over compensated the line here making a 4-6 team with a bad defense a TD favorite on the road?

    • PSUJustin says:

      My 2 Cents:

      Illini rank 121st in scoring offense, and they are allowing 31 point per game (91st in def.). Illini are giving up nearly 400 ypg while only gaining 270. They run first and stick with it but Purdue has a solid d line. I don’t see them being able to score enough to cover. Purdue has been slumping lately and just barely beat Iowa last week 27-24 (even though Iowa is fading to). Purdue is averaging over 400 ypg in there last 3 so they should be able to move up and down the field against the terrible Illinois d.

      There is no way i would take this game but if you have to i suggest Purdue (-7).

  6. Trentmoney says:

    Tennessee could have gone bowling with a win in the final game last year vs a HORRIBLE kentucky team
    they didn’t go bowling

    vandy hasn’t beaten tenn since 2005, meaning no one on vandy has beaten tenny…last year they lost in OT by a 90yd int TD return…game notes say they haven’t won in nashville since 1984

    you don’t think they will be motivated??
    and now you’re counting on dooley to motivate his team??
    Vandy on 4 game winning streak
    Vols 1-13 in SEC over last 2 yrs, winless this season

    good luck
    you’re gonna need it…
    hahaha

    • Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

      I never suggested Vandy wouldn’t be motivated. I am sure they will be, especially since the Vols own them and Dooley celebrated last year saying as much.

      Phil Steele says UT has won 14 straight trips to Nashville (last loss ’82).

      Vols may only be 1-13 in the SEC over the last 2 years, but we know who they beat.

      I still think it will be a close, one score type game.

      • Trentmoney says:

        Tennessee game notes say 1984
        If they’re as bad as their team then Phil might be right
        otherwise i would defer to the SID

        hard to put good, hard-earned cash on that team right now
        and as i said, they should have been motivated last year and we saw what happened…

        Agents whispering in their ears:

        “Stop listening to Derek Dooley
        Start listening to Benjamin Franklin”…

        good luck bro

      • Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

        Derek’s swan song. He’s going out a winner. HA!

        Unfortunately it looks like the Tennessee SID is as bad as their team:

        Dec 01, 1984 Tennessee AT Vanderbilt (W) 29 – 13
        Nov 26, 1983 AT Tennessee Vanderbilt (W) 34 – 24
        Nov 27, 1982 Tennessee AT Vanderbilt (L) 21 – 28

        URGH!

        • Trentmoney says:

          my bad…it says a win would be 15th consecutive since 1984…that usually means they lost then but he meant including 1984

          that’s a good sign for you…ineptness in the SID dept usually trickles down to the field
          hahaha

  7. Seth says:

    Hey Pez, would love your thoughts on USC. I posted mine in Sabert’s thread so I won’t overlap too much, but I really like USC to win and cover. They have the advantage in several key categories and where UCLA does have the advantage, it isn’t by much. Add in the fact that this is essentially the reason Matt Barkley came back, I just don’t see this team not playing super motivated. Sure, UCLA will be motivated, but they are led by a freshman at QB and a first-year coach. The fans will be 50/50, so HFA is kind of a wash to me (USC is closer to Pasadena than UCLA). USC -3 is a great number to me. I think I remember seeing this at the Nugget for -17sh in July.

    • Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

      Seth, I’m working on this game as we speak. My numbers have it a little closer than I expected. I have USC -1.5 using overall numbers. But using just PAC 12 numbers I have USC -7.5.

      But I do like some of the intangibles you mention, especially Barkley v Hundley. Hundley is good, but Barkley and the Trojans have a lot more experience.

      I’ve always felt that HFA is more than just the crowd. It is familiarity with the surroundings, home routine vs travelling, etc. But definitely agree that the Bruin HFA is minimized in this situation.

      With the Rose Bowl possibly on the line, I am definitely leaning Trojans right now. Would really love to see it go down to 2.5, but really doubt it does so.

      • Seth says:

        I’ve been watching USC for several years. They usually don’t win the close games, so that is why I like the spread. I think they either win by 2tds or lose.

  8. OpeningLine OpeningLine says:

    Wisconsins O-Line is playing a lot better now than they were early in the season. Having said that, they will start a 3rd string QB against the #6 team in the country. If the game is close down the stretch (or Wisky falls behind), it may be a tough spot for the inexperience QB to come back from.

    Also, Wisky’s D is average at best. Ohio State (and particularly Braxton Miller) used a much needed bye week to rest up and focus their attention on this game. The three points are nice to have for insurance, but I like OSU outright in this game.

  9. Seth says:

    Hey Pez, if you have time would love to know your thoughts on BYU -3. I’m familiar with the explosiveness of SJSU’s passing attack but I think BYU can get pressure on their qb. However, this line looks like a trap.

    • Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

      Seth, I got BYU +2.5 on a neutral field, so the line looks pretty accurate. Because BYU struggles to score, I’d be hesitant to lay the FG on the road. Mormans definitely have the defensive edge.

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