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Who to bet on Week #12: Sides and Totals to consider

Who to bet on Week #12: Sides and Totals to consider

Who to bet on Week #12: Sides and Totals to consider

Well for the first time in 7 weeks TSE didn’t have a winning week on the site. But thanks to a fine week by our ACC capper jimmyshivers, we managed to go 19-19. We certainly had our share of bad beats this week. The FSU – Va Tech total, Penn State and Ole Miss were tough losses, but there will be “bad luck” weeks throughout the season. Unfortunately luck, good and bad, plays a much larger part in winning than anyone of us would like to admit. 

Below are some of the games that we are considering betting on this week and a few reasons why we like a particular side or total. Please feel free to join in the discussion and offer your feedback, we would definitely like to hear about how you are viewing a particular side or total. Last week we had some really good debates going on several games. This type of back and forth can be very helpful to keep perspective moving into the weekend, so please share your thoughts.

Pezgordo

Purdue – Illinois U 51

The Illini offense is hapless. They are the worst offense in the Big 10 averaging 278 ypg and in conference play they have scored 7, 14, 0, 17, 22 & 3 (10.5 ppg). Defensively they aren’t much better ranking 9th in ypg allowed. However at home they are only allowing 26.77 ppg in Big 10 play and they held both Indiana and Minnesota under their offensive season avg. The Boilers are only avg 18.83 ppg in Big 10 play and have scored no more than 28 points in a single conference game.

Iowa State – Kansas U 48

I watched Kansas last week against Texas Tech and came away a little bit impressed. They actually played pretty solid D and they can run the hell out of the ball. Based on my run numbers I actually have Iowa State’s run D ranked a little higher than Texas Tech’s. It is the Cyclone pass D that is not doing very well. With KU’s inability to throw the football (they rank last in the Big 12), hopefully this is a good match-up for their defense. Statistically these are the two worst offenses in the Big 12 with the two worst pass efficiency QBs (by far) in the league.

North Carolina State +17

This number kind of stood out to me. Clemson has been rolling up offensive numbers and has been a covering machine all year, but the Wolfpack should be able to move the ball on them. Statistically we have two defenses that are more or less even.

Stanford +21

Ducks are hurting big time on defense, especially along the DL. The Cardinal are really physical on offense and will test the young duckling DL, which could lead to some long, sustained drives. New Stanford QB Hogan definitely looks like an improvement over Nunes at the position, and the Ducks are also hurting in the secondary. So much so that they are considering using the Black Mamba at cornerback this week. I don’t know that anyone can stop the Oregon offensive Death Star, but the Cardinal front seven is by far the best Oregon will see all season, so it should at the very least be able to slow it down …. a little.

Washington – Colorado U 55

The game is currently lined at 54.5, but I won’t take it for anything less than 55. Yeah my “only one team will score” theory didn’t workout last week as far as Colorado and Arizona were concerned, however, I didn’t realize how bad the Arizona defense was. They looked like the Colorado D, only in different uniforms. UW on the other hand has a legitimate defense. Also, the UCLA-CU total was lined at 59 (and went under 42-14). UW has nowhere near as explosive an offense as UCLA, but the UW defense is every bit as good (if not better) than the Bruins.

ASU -21

The Devils should become bowl eligible this week as I doubt they have much trouble with the Cougs in Tempe. Last weeks UCLA – WSU final was pretty misleading as the Bruins held a 44-14 lead before taking their foot off the pedal. After 4 straight defeats to ranked teams, I doubt ASU will be as benevolent. With their big rivalry game coming up against Arizona, ASU needs to lock in that 6th win to become bowl eligible and I got to think they know this is their best chance to get it.

 


 

OpeningLine

Early Leans

Here are some games I like at first glance. I still have to do a little more digging before I lock them in, but I am definitely leaning in these directions:

Air Force -22.5

This play is very uncharacteristic for me. I really don’t like taking spreads over two touchdowns, especially with a mediocre team laying the points. This one may be an exception to the rule as Air Force will take on a struggling Hawaii team making the trip to Colorado on a shortened week (game is played on Friday). Air Force’s triple option attack ranks #3 in the country in rushing, and Hawaii’s defense is #115 at defending the run, giving up a generous 5.0 yards per carry. The pathetic Hawaii offense ranks 2nd to last in yards per play. The only time the Warriors covered this season was a 44.5 spread to USC on week one. Air Force should shred Hawaii on the ground in Colorado Springs. Also, the temperature is supposed to be in the 30’s and 40’s for that game, something the Hawaii players may have problems adjusting to.

Rutgers +6.5

Rutgers had a terrible performance against Kent State three weeks ago, and they struggled for three quarters against Army last week. Still, I think they have a more than capable defense to keep this game against Cincinnati close on the road. Nova and the Scarlet Knights’ offense cannot afford turnovers, something that has plagued them in recent weeks. If Nova comes out poised, I could see him having success against the Bearcat’s secondary in similar fashion to what Teddy Bridgewater did to them. I will probably hold off on this play until there is more information on the status of Rutgers RB Jawan Jamison. Currently, he is listed as 50/50 with an ankle injury. If he is ready to go, I see good value at +6.5, and I might even play it if Jamison is out and the line goes up. 

More to be added…

 

 

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8 Responses to “Who to bet on Week #12: Sides and Totals to consider”

  1. Trentmoney says:

    Illinois also held penn st under their conference avg at home
    what-you didn’t read my newsletter article last week…??
    hahaha

    • Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

      You are absolutely correct. I was just looking at ppg, but now that you mention it, they held Penn St, Indiana and Minny under their season avg’s for yards per game and yards per play.

  2. Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

    I will definitely be looking at Rutgers this week. They have the better defense. Surprisingly they don’t have the better overall run numbers, mainly because Cincinnati has such a solid run game, but I certainly wouldn’t be surprised if they ended up being the running dog in this game.

  3. Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

    From USA Today: RB Jawan Jamison suffered a minor sprain to his right ankle and missed a series and a half against Army. He was limping in the locker room, but expects to play next week.

    From The Star Ledger (11/13/12): Running back Jawan Jamison didn’t practice today due to his sprained right ankle and his status for Saturday’s game against Cincinnati remains uncertain, Rutgers coach Kyle Flood said.

    “Jamison didn’t go today so we’ll have to re-evaluate him” Wednesday, Flood said. “I still say 50-50.”

    “We’re not thinking about big picture. We’re not thinking about three games. We’re thinking about Cincinnati. And if (Jamison) can help us beat Cincinnati this week, he’s going to help us.”

  4. OpeningLine OpeningLine says:

    Stanford got steamrolled by Oregon at home last year with a much better team (and superstar QB). Stanford has dropped down a peg or two this year, while Oregon is still top 5 caliber. I know the Ducks are beat up in some areas, but is that enough to keep them from flattening Stanford like they did last year?

  5. Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

    McGloin’s Comments about the bad calls in the Nebraska game:

    There was a controversial call during Penn State’s loss when officials ruled that tight end Matt Lehman fumbled at the goal line. Replays showed that it looked as if the ball had broken the plane of the goal line before Lehman fumbled, but even after reviewing the play, the original call was upheld.

    And McGloin wasn’t afraid to tell everyone why he thought the call wasn’t changed.

    “We’re not going to get that call here,” McGloin told reporters after the game. “We’re not going to get that call ever, actually, against any team. It doesn’t matter who the refs are. That’s the way it is.”

    While he doesn’t come out and say it directly, it’s obvious that McGloin is intimating that Penn State won’t be getting any calls due to the Sandusky child-abuse scandal that led to the school being punished by the NCAA.

    Now, while I’m not so sure I buy McGloin’s feelings that the scandal is affecting the way officials rule games, it’s impossible to pretend that the Sandusky mess doesn’t leave a cloud hanging over the program in the minds of some.

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