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GoSooners College Football Picks for Week # 12

GoSooners College Football Picks for Week # 12

GoSooners College Football Picks Week #12

Last Week: 3-4
Season: 43-42

 

Ohio State (+3) over Wisconsin **

USC (-3) over UCLA **

LSU (-18.5) over Ole Miss ***

Marshall (-3) over Houston ***

Kansas State/Baylor (OVER 74) **** (Best Bet)

Florida State (-31) over Maryland **

North Carolina St. (+17) over Clemson **

Rice (+4) over SMU **

Bowling Green (-2) over Kent State **

Utah ML (-115) over Arizona **

 

 

 

LSU (-18.5) over Ole Miss ***

I like the way this LSU team is trending upward this late in the season. With their QB Mettenberger getting more confident by the week, I think this LSU team is going to be a handful for here on out. Especially with a shutdown defense. Miss State found this out last week in a game that LSU had every right to throw in a clunker after a tough Bama loss..But if it didn’t happen last week, I don’t think it will happen this week against similar strength competetion.. The Rebs suffered a devastating come from ahead loss last week to Vandy. The worst kind. Especially since they needed that game to become bowl eligible. Now Freeze has to try to put his team back together emotionally and head out on the road to a tough venue. I’ve won some nice money on Ole Miss this season. But the bottom line is they are still a team who hasn’t beaten anybody with a winning record. And it’s this time of year where attrition starts to come into play for the lower and midlevel conference teams, while the cream of the crop teams with better depth (LSU) starts to rise to the top. I think Ole Miss will have problems scoring here while Mettwenberger continues to improve since his Bama coming out party. I look for a 35-10 type of game.

 

Marshall (-3) over Houston ***

Saber has a nice writeup of this game in his thread. The only thing I will add is even both defenses are bad,  we are getting the better QB (Cato) playing at home with a Marshall team who is at least have the appearaces of the more stable program right now, against a Houston team who is dealing with injuries and looks like they are trending downward. I see this kind of thing happen year after year with teams with new head coaches who are dealing with team injuries.  With this being Levine’s first year as a HC anywhere, I’m not sure he’s really got the experience to get his team back on track. Especially on the road. Two out of Houston’s last 3 losses have been blowouts. Which is almost never  good this late in the season.

 

Kansas State/Baylor (OVER 74) **** (Best Bet)

My first 4 star play of the year. I think everything here sets up for a very high scoring affair. First off, there are two teams in the Big 12 who have zero defense. And that is WV and Baylor. They both have to outscore their opponents to win. And it hasn’t worked out too good for either team since the winning score is usually in the 50’s. Almost every team has had their way with Baylor’s D. The only team that didn’t play to form against Baylor was Kansas a couple weeks ago. But keep in mind that the new Kansas QB was getting his first start in that game, and KU still rushed for over 250 yards on Baylor. So you can probably imagine what Klein and this KSU team can do to them. The only other bad offensive team in the conference Iowa State still gained over 550 yards on Baylor. So it wouldn’t surprise me if this was a 400+ yard rushing night for KSU in this game. KSU might possibly be without Lockett on offense, but I don’t think it will matter when KSU is gashing this team for 10+ yard runs. It should be noted that KSU’s stud FS is probably going to be out too. This could be a bigger blow to the Cats since he has been the main reason why the Cats haven’t allowed the long pass plays this year. KSU is still somewhat of a bend but not break pass defense. They allow 243 ypg and Baylor passes for a league high 375 ypg. So Baylor will most likely get their points too. If this line had made it up to 14 I would have seriously considered taking Baylor and the points. But with this total staying pretty stable this week, I much prefer the over in what should be a 49-35 type of game.

Ohio State (+3) over Wisconsin**

Good situational spot for OSU coming in off a bye week. And Wisconsin having already clinched their divsion. What have they got to play for? OSU can’t go bowling, so they are shooting for an undefeated season. Wisky getting WAY too much love for skulldragging a bad Indiana team last week. This week Wisky will be playing against a defense that will actually get off the bus. Something tells me Wisky QB Phillips isn’t going to have the rookie luck that he had last week in his first start. The Buckeyes will break him in right. Meyer sending a message for next year. They will be the team to beat. Plus in my opinion a big coaching/QB mismatch. This line looks too good to be true, and it might be a sucker’s bet. But I’m taking it anyway. This looks like a close game.

 

Florida State (-31) over Maryland **

With the amount of injuries that Maryland has endured, Edsall probably can’t get this season overwith fast enough. Maryland was never a good offensive team to begin with, but it has now hit rock bottom. When you can only score 10 and 13 points against Clemson and GT the last 2 weeks, you’ve got some serious problems. You can tell this team is wearing down in the closing stretch. And now the best team in the conference with the best defense is coming to town. FSU got a scare in their Thursday night road game against VT. I don’t think they will mess around in this game. I look for them to be all business in this early kickoff. The reason I usually don’t give this many points on the road unless there is a clear advantage for the favorite on both sides of the ball.  Clemson beat Maryland last week 45-10. FSU’s offense is similar in strength to Clemson, but with a much better defense. I don’t see Maryland’s LB/QB having any success whatsoever against this FSU defense that hasn’t given up more than 7 points in any game against teams with similar strength offenses. And this is the worst of them all.  FSU wins in a 42-3 type of game.

USC (-3) over UCLA ***

Not what I would call a good matchup for UCLA with their weak pass defense going against one of the best QB/WR combos in the country. Although by the numbers USC’s defense isn’t much better, the teams who have given them the most problems have been the spread teams like Zona and Oregon. The Trojans always seem to do a better job against the more conventional offenses. I also think USC’s numbers are a bit skewed in comparison to the Bruins since USC has had the tougher in-conference schedule having to play the two top teams Oregon and Stanford, where UCLA to this point has avoided those teams.. This won’t be a runaway by any means. These two teams are pretty close because of UCLA’s ability to run the ball. But at just a FG I prefer to take my chances with the Trojans to get the cover.

 

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8 Responses to “GoSooners College Football Picks for Week # 12”

  1. Snow says:

    Wisc as slight favorite after last week’s blowout has trap line written all over it. Begging for public money, and seems to have gotten it. I like OSU here too.

    • Jackson says:

      Full disclosure, I like OSU in this spot as well, but I would argue the other way that OSU is begging for public money. An AP top 10 ranked team as an underdog against an unranked opponent has the smell of a sucker bet on OSU. If that is the case, then call me a sucker!!

  2. GoSooners GoSooners says:

    For some odd reason the line movement is screaming Wisky. But I don’t care. In half of Kansas State’s games this year the line movement has begged you to take the other side. All I can say is how’d that work out? As for this game, both Pezgordo and my numbers have these teams at even. But I still feel that the situational factor/coach/QB all favor OSU in this spot.

  3. Tribetimenow says:

    Posted this on the RX:

    I lean towards the under in that one (now 53) Both running teams (OSU 8th, Wiscy 17th), stop the run (Wiscy 13th, OSU 16th), and can’t pass the ball (OSU T-98th, Wiscy 108th). Wiscy has a good passing defense. Not sure Wisconsin can exploit OSU’s pass defense.

    Any lean, GS? Best of luck this week.

  4. GoSooners GoSooners says:

    Tribetimenow, Pezgordo might be able to give you a better idea about this total. But it looks to me like Wisky doesn’t have the kind of offense that gives OSU problems. Especially with a backup QB. All Phillips basically had to do last week was hand off. Of the 71 plays they ran, 64 of them were running plays. So the Wisky QB was basically just a game manager and nothing more. OSU has the horses up front to stop the run. We’re talking about Wisky going from playing a team who gives up 252 ypg rushing to one who gives up just 108 ypg. So Philips will have to make plays. And the one unknown in this game is if he is capable of it. My guess is he’s going to have problems given that Meyer has had two weeks to prepare his defense for him. Wisky is an old school Big 10 team like a Michigan St. and they are good on defense. So I would have to lean to the under in this game.

  5. GoSooners GoSooners says:

    We’ve got two games tonight. I don’t have an opinion about the Ohio/Ball state game, but I did put a half a unit down on Northern Illinois. I’m still trying to decide if I want to make it an official play. I hate messing with weekday games, especially MAC games. But NIU looks right now like a very strong team, and the class of the MAC. While the offensive numbers of these teams are similar, what seperates them is NIU’s superior defense which ranks 45th in the country to Toeldo’s 106. I also prefer to go with the hot NIU team who has won 6 games in a row ATS and playing at home for the last time.

  6. Seth says:

    “These two teams are pretty close because of UCLA’s ability to run the ball. But at just a FG I prefer to take my chances with the Trojans to get the cover.”

    USC actually has the better YPC in rushing by almost 1/2 yard, granted USC has 313 attempts to UCLA’s 450. Silas Redd will also be coming back for this game.

  7. GoSooners GoSooners says:

    Seth, I think with all things being equal, USC having the better QB is a solid advantage for the Trojans. And as much as I don’t care for Kiffin, I also feel it is still an intangible advantage in game preparation in big games for a third year coaching staff as opposed to a first year coaching staff. But USC better watch out after this year. UCLA has some real talent on that team. And Mora appears to be doing everything right. BOL this weekend.

Trackbacks/Pingbacks

  1. Betting on College Football - Week 12 Quick Hitters - The Saturday Edge - [...] being favored in this matchup. GoSooners addresses this in his write-up and pick of the game here. Pezgordo also…
  2. Pezgordo’s Week # 12 College Football Picks - [...] write-up here by GoSooners. Also some good info about Urban Meyers ATS record following a bye week. Based on…
  3. TSE College Football Picks – Week # 12 Summary - [...] GoSooners [...]

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