Pezgordo’s College Football Picks – YTD: 60-51 ATS
9-3 last week. I went 8-2 on posted picks and 1-1 with newsletter exclusive picks, which included losing the newsletter ML parlay pick. I hate losing this pick. I am now 2-1 with posted ML parlay picks, but 8-2 overall on them for the season. I vow to get back on track this weekend. I was 3-0 in PAC 12 selections last week and I believe I am 9-1 the last two weeks with totals (all unders).
Last week I beat the closing line in 10 out of 11 games and my overall closing line value for week # 9 was +1.00. By beating the closing line I won the Miss State – Alabama under, which closed at 44.5 (38-7 final score).
After 9 weeks I have beaten the closing line in 82 of 108 games (75.93%), I have matched the closing line in 13 other games and I have wagered on the wrong side of the closing number in 12 games for an overall closing line value of +1.22.
Georgia Tech – Maryland U 49
This game opened at 51 and when I went to hit submit the line had already changed on me. Maryland has the second best D in the ACC and more importantly they lead the league in run defense. Outside of the Virginia game, the Georgia Tech offense is averaging a little less than 1 ppg vs what other team’s allow (Maryland is allowing 22.29 ppg vs teams that average 23.50). The Terps will be starting a scholarship LB at QB who last played the position in HS.
Mississippi State +7
Some good debate on this game in our weekly sides & totals to consider. I used this game as our weekly SEC video pick.
Jimmyshivers has a great write-up about this one here.
Washington – Cal U 52.5 (1.5 units)
Two QBs that rank in the lower half of the league in pass efficiency (UW sitting last at 103.94). Neither team runs the ball well either. Cal is avg 153.63 ypg on the ground against teams that allow 197.88 ypg & UW is only avg 114.29 ypg. To make matters worse (or better for the under), it was discovered late yesterday afternoon that Cal’s best offensive player, WR Keenan Allen was “hurt badly” in last weeks game at Utah. This is a HUGE loss for Cal.
Stanford – Colorado U 51
I got this one at 53. It has crossed the key number 52, but currently sits on another strong number 51. I really only see one team scoring much in this one and that team (Stanford) is struggling on offense. Cardinal QB Josh Nunes is 8th in the conference in passing efficiency with a 120.0 rating and has completed just 52.6 percent of his passes. In a narrow victory over Washington State last week, he was 7 of 15 for 136 yards. He has been so ineffective this season that Stanford will be giving redshirt freshman Kevin Hogan 12-20 snaps this Saturday in Boulder. As a comparison, the UCLA total was lined at 59 in Boulder (42-14 final), Stanford averages 6.5 less than UCLA on offense, but is better defensively by nearly a full TD.
Alabama – LSU U 42.5
Maybe this total is too obvious, but I just don’t see a lot of scoring in this game from either team. This will be the third game these two teams have played against each other in the past year. They are very familiar with each other’s strengths and weaknesses. In the previous two games there was 1 TD scored, and that was in garbage time in the NC game when the game was already decided. McCarron is having a monster season, but this will be the best defense he has faced by far this season. Mettenberger has been a huge disappointment this season at QB for LSU.
Another better defense getting points. Houston has won 4 of their last 5 games. But none of those teams had a winning record and their combined W-L record was 17-29 (36.96%). Despite being thought of as a passing team, ECU has the better offensive pass numbers averaging 7.48 yards per pass attempt vs Houston’s 6.69 and 134.89 pass efficiency vs Houston’s 120.65. ECU just does a lot of the little things a little better than Houston does. Game looks like a pick ‘em on paper, so I’ll gladly take the FG+.
Michigan State +2
I jumped the gun early on this one and only got +1. OpeningLine and I have had a pretty good debate on this game here. Getting the best defense in the Big 10 at home plus a point looks like value to me.
I figured the Irish homers would drive this one back to 17, so I waited. Sabert has a good write-up on this game here. My actual number vs competition has Notre Dame favored in this game right around 16.5 points. But as Sabert suggests, there are a few “intangibles” that are in Pitt’s favor. Like Sabert, I really don’t put too much emphasis on this being a classic letdown spot for Notre Dame. But I do like having that intangible in my favor. Also, in 8 games the Irish have still only managed to score more than 20 points on 3 occasions, and two of those were against defenses that are not as good as Pitt’s (Navy & Miami). It is just asking a lot for a team that averages 24 ppg vs BCS competition to cover a 17 point spread.
I got this one earlier in the week, but with the line currently sitting at 8.5 to 9, I wouldn’t advise wagering it. So unless the number comes back to 7/7.5 I will not count it among my weekly selections. Just tough for me to “see” how USC’s depleted DL can slow down the Oregon offensive Death Star. The Duck D is also a lot better than most people think. And with Kansas State and Notre Dame passing the Ducks in the BCS, I don’t think Chip takes his foot off the pedal. If possible Oregon will run this score up.