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Pezgordo’s Week # 10 College Football Picks

Pezgordo’s Week # 10 College Football Picks

Pezgordo’s College Football Picks – YTD: 60-51 ATS 

9-3 last week. I went 8-2 on posted picks and 1-1 with newsletter exclusive picks, which included losing the newsletter ML parlay pick. I hate losing this pick. I am now 2-1 with posted ML parlay picks, but 8-2 overall on them for the season. I vow to get back on track this weekend. I was 3-0 in PAC 12 selections last week and I believe I am 9-1 the last two weeks with totals (all unders).

Beating the closing line

Last week I beat the closing line in 10 out of 11 games and my overall closing line value for week # 9 was +1.00. By beating the closing line I won the Miss State – Alabama under, which closed at 44.5 (38-7 final score).

After 9 weeks I have beaten the closing line in 82 of 108 games (75.93%), I have matched the closing line in 13 other games and I have wagered on the wrong side of the closing number in 12 games for an overall closing line value of +1.22.

Pezgordo’s Week # 10 College football Picks

Georgia Tech – Maryland U 49

This game opened at 51 and when I went to hit submit the line had already changed on me. Maryland has the second best D in the ACC and more importantly they lead the league in run defense. Outside of the Virginia game, the Georgia Tech offense is averaging a little less than 1 ppg vs what other team’s allow (Maryland is allowing 22.29 ppg vs teams that average 23.50). The Terps will be starting a scholarship LB at QB who last played the position in HS.

Mississippi State +7

Some good debate on this game in our weekly sides & totals to consider. I used this game as our weekly SEC video pick.

Virginia +11

Jimmyshivers has a great write-up about this one here.

Washington – Cal U 52.5 (1.5 units)

Two QBs that rank in the lower half of the league in pass efficiency (UW sitting last at 103.94). Neither team runs the ball well either. Cal is avg 153.63 ypg on the ground against teams that allow 197.88 ypg & UW is only avg 114.29 ypg. To make matters worse (or better for the under), it was discovered late yesterday afternoon that Cal’s best offensive player, WR Keenan Allen was “hurt badly” in last weeks game at Utah. This is a HUGE loss for Cal.

Stanford – Colorado U 51

I got this one at 53. It has crossed the key number 52, but currently sits on another strong number 51. I really only see one team scoring much in this one and that team (Stanford) is struggling on offense. Cardinal QB Josh Nunes is 8th in the conference in passing efficiency with a 120.0 rating and has completed just 52.6 percent of his passes. In a narrow victory over Washington State last week, he was 7 of 15 for 136 yards. He has been so ineffective this season that Stanford will be giving redshirt freshman Kevin Hogan 12-20 snaps this Saturday in Boulder. As a comparison, the UCLA total was lined at 59 in Boulder (42-14 final), Stanford averages 6.5 less than UCLA on offense, but is better defensively by nearly a full TD.

LSU +10
Alabama – LSU U 42.5

Maybe this total is too obvious, but I just don’t see a lot of scoring in this game from either team. This will be the third game these two teams have played against each other in the past year. They are very familiar with each other’s strengths and weaknesses. In the previous two games there was 1 TD scored, and that was in garbage time in the NC game when the game was already decided. McCarron is having a monster season, but this will be the best defense he has faced by far this season. Mettenberger has been a huge disappointment this season at QB for LSU.

ECU +3.5

Another better defense getting points. Houston has won 4 of their last 5 games. But none of those teams had a winning record and their combined W-L record was 17-29 (36.96%). Despite being thought of as a passing team, ECU has the better offensive pass numbers averaging 7.48 yards per pass attempt vs Houston’s 6.69 and 134.89 pass efficiency vs Houston’s 120.65. ECU just does a lot of the little things a little better than Houston does. Game looks like a pick ‘em on paper, so I’ll gladly take the FG+.

Michigan State +2

I jumped the gun early on this one and only got +1. OpeningLine and I have had a pretty good debate on this game here. Getting the best defense in the Big 10 at home plus a point looks like value to me.

Pitt +17

I figured the Irish homers would drive this one back to 17, so I waited. Sabert has a good write-up on this game here. My actual number vs competition has Notre Dame favored in this game right around 16.5 points. But as Sabert suggests, there are a few “intangibles” that are in Pitt’s favor. Like Sabert, I really don’t put too much emphasis on this being a classic letdown spot for Notre Dame. But I do like having that intangible in my favor. Also, in 8 games the Irish have still only managed to score more than 20 points on 3 occasions, and two of those were against defenses that are not as good as Pitt’s (Navy & Miami). It is just asking a lot for a team that averages 24 ppg vs BCS competition to cover a 17 point spread.

 


 

Oregon -7

I got this one earlier in the week, but with the line currently sitting at 8.5 to 9, I wouldn’t advise wagering it. So unless the number comes back to 7/7.5 I will not count it among my weekly selections. Just tough for me to “see” how USC’s depleted DL can slow down the Oregon offensive Death Star. The Duck D is also a lot better than most people think.  And with Kansas State and Notre Dame passing the Ducks in the BCS, I don’t think Chip takes his foot off the pedal. If possible Oregon will run this score up.

 

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15 Responses to “Pezgordo’s Week # 10 College Football Picks”

  1. Seth says:

    Good luck. I really like the LSU +10 and Under 42.5 picks. I don’t understand why LSU is a double-digit dog at home. I’d say LSU’s HFA is one of the best in college football. Also, the total doesn’t make much sense. Last year, both totals closed at 41 and I’d say LSU’s offense has taken a step back for sure. Are they assuming Bama scores all the points? I don’t like LSU to score more than 14 and if I like the cover it goes without saying that the under will hit as well.

  2. Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

    Thanks Seth. You bring up a good point that I should have included in my write-up and that is typically, favorites and the under are correlated (obviously sometimes more so than others). So in this case as you point out, if LSU covers than most likely the under is going to hit.

    I think the total is a little higher than 41 because everyone has seen Alabama’s offense put up a lot of points against some mediocre defenses. LSU’s D is holding teams below their offensive season avg’s by almost 11 points and no one has scored their season average against them.

    Alabama’s D is doing even better, holding teams to 18.05 ppg below their offensive season avg.

    Just looks like points will be hard to come by in this game. I’ll say something like 23-16 or 20-17 either way.

    Best of luck this week(end).

  3. doug says:

    Wash and Cal total now 51.5. It sure looks to be the right side of this matchup to be under. I see you have this play valued at a little higher level than others? You Really like this one this best??

    • Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

      Doug, on PAPER this game stands little chance at going over. Unfortunately they’ve decided not to play the game on paper and instead they are going to play in Strawberry Canyon at Memorial Stadium (My attempt at humor).

      But seriously, of all the things I look for in an under, this game qualifies in every category. I have one set of numbers saying 44 and another set suggesting a range of 31.5 to 50.5.

      I have two sets of correlations that lean heavily towards the under. We have two of the (statistically) worst QBs in the PAC 12, neither team runs the ball particularly well, and Cal will be w/o their best offensive playmaker Kennan Allen (who would have easily been the best player on the field tonight).

      Defensively neither team jumps out at you, Cal is allowing 28 ppg and UW is allowing 30 ppg. However we also have to take that into the context of who each team has played. Cal has played 5 teams that average over 30 ppg. They are actually allowing 28 ppg to teams that avg 31.14 ppg … so on average they are holding teams below their offensive season avg by a FG …. UW avg’s 16.14 ppg.

      UW has also played 5 teams that avg 30 or more points per game, including the PAC 12′s top 2 offenses (OR & AZ). They are allowing 30.14 ppg, but that is against teams that avg 34.39 ppg. So on average their defense is actually allowing fewer PPG vs what their opponents avg than Cal is …..Cal only avg’s 22.75 ppg on offense.

      The main point is that although neither of these defenses are statistically dominant, they are also not as “bad” as their stats suggest. Both D’s will be taking a major step down in the offensive firepower they’ll be facing tonight.

      Plus the fact that the only offensive playmaker that would have been on the field tonight isn’t playing can only be a good thing. Cal now had to rely more on QB Zach Maynard w/o his favorite target to throw to against a Husky D that just held Oregon State to 17 points last week.

      Of course with all that being said, there is always the chance that we get a game like Cal played last week against a weak Utah offense wherein the Utes barely had 300 yards of offense but produced 49 points (21 directly off turnovers or special teams and 4 short fields).

      Nothing kills an under like ST’s or defensive scores and short fields. But I believe the “odds” of that not happening a second week in a row are in our favor.

  4. doug says:

    Pez thanks so much for all your logic. Yes they do play these things on the field, shame but true.
    So Under it is…..BOL to all.

  5. Navycross says:

    Hope you held off on your play on Pitt…after their starting RB, LB and their best receiver were charged with assault today I can’t see the team allowing them to play Saturday.

    • Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

      Nope I made that play as soon as it went back to 17. I don’t think it’ll have much effect on the line or the game. Graham was/is good, but the frosh Rushel Shell is a stud.

  6. OpeningLine OpeningLine says:

    Pez,

    I’m looking at taking Miss St, but I’ve held out so far hoping that the line will go up to 7.5 eventually. Any chance that will happen, or should I just be happy with the +7?

    • OpeningLine OpeningLine says:

      Also, since I know what side you are on in the Neb-MSU game (haha), how do you feel about the under, 44.5?

    • Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

      OL, I don’t think it gets to 7.5 …. and/or if it does it happens right before kickoff. Earlier in the week I was waiting to see how the line would move hoping to also get +7.5, but then it went down to 6 / 6.5, so when it got back to +7 I took it.

    • Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

      My numbers and correlations say under, but my gut thinks it might go over. I can see both teams getting into the 20′s. But there is no way I would play an MSU game over (7 of 9 have gone under, 1 over and 1 push).

      So my only consideration would be under. 45 is a key number, so at 44.5 I would wait for 45 or pass.

      • OpeningLine OpeningLine says:

        If you had to pick a side on Cal-Wash, what would it be? Washington usually bad on the road, but the public is all over them. However, the spread has held at Cal -4 for the most part.

      • Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

        If I had to I’d take UW +4. Mainly because I think it is going to be a low scoring game and these two teams look pretty even.

        Statistically I have this one about dead even …. slight lean towards Cal offensively, but w/o their best player on the field tonight, that advantage is nullified.

        Memorial Stadium is usually a good HFA, ASU hadn’t won there in years. But Cal has already lost 3 games there this year and the UCLA win was just a “bad” game from Hundley.

        24-21 either way

  7. Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

    Well sometimes it pays to be lucky too. Eight turnovers in the UW-Cal game, three in the RZ. And that doesn’t even include 3 more turnovers on downs.

Trackbacks/Pingbacks

  1. Betting on College Football - Week 10 Quick Hitters - The Saturday Edge - [...] #117 in total yards, and 2nd to last in points per play. Pezgordo has more insight into this game …
  2. TSE College Football Picks – Week # 10 Summary - [...] Pezgordo [...]

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