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SabertStxVii Week 10 College Football Picks

SabertStxVii Week 10 College Football Picks

Been an unreal season so far, with an undefeated 7-0 week last week. I was just curious what my YTD numbers look like from last week of October to this past week, including last years bowls. From Week 8 on my YTD record is 94-50 (65%), + 88.5* units. Sustainability, albeit tough, is very good to have. Below are my Week 10 College Football Picks.

DISCLAIMER: I am currently analyzing and writing my picks from the Virgin Islands. I should be able to respond to comments until Friday morning, where I may have limited access to internet.

Where I wrote Week 10 plays

I was really surprised on last weeks opening lines and had to spend a lot of time making sure I wasn’t completely on the wrong side. There were numerous teams that I thought should have been favored and weren’t (Ole Miss, Indiana,  Syracuse, and more that I didn’t post). Seems very unlike the books this late in the season to seem so off.

Undefeated weeks are obviously really nice, but I think its almost easier to have weeks without winning one.  Have to enjoy them while you can and just attempt to stay consistent.


 Week 1: 5-3 +4.5u , Week 2: 6-2 +10 u, Week 3: 3-3, -.5u, Week 4: 5-2, +6.5u

Week 5: 4-2, +5.5u, Week 6: 7-2, +9u, Week 7: 5-2, +4.5u, Week 8:  6-3, +6* units

Week 9: 7-0, +14* units

Overall: 48-19 + 59.5* Units


Week 10 Picks

2* units, Pittsburgh +16.5 vs Notre Dame

1* units, Ole Miss +14 vs UGA

1.5* unit, LSU +10 vs Bama

2.5* units, Indiana -1.5 vs Iowa

2* Units, Northern Illy -34.5 vs Mass

2* Units, Florida -17 vs Missouri

1* Unit, Tulsa +8.5 vs Arky


 

2* units, Pittsburgh +16.5 vs Notre Dame

I will say it here before I even get into this, I was pretty off on this Notre Dame team. I am super impressed with the players, and maybe even more impressed with Brian Kelly. I should have known better as I lived in Cincy during his era there. The guy is coaching them to wins. One of my good buddies is on the ND staff and I have been talking shit all season about this team. They are straight getting it done.

With that being said, I don’t think they cover this spread. Against a decent defense, I just don’t see them putting up enough here to cover. Only a few of Notre Dame’s wins have been “commanding.”

This Pitt team is so different than the team that lost to a AA squad then got ran off the field vs. Cincy early in the year. Tino Sunseri has been ballin the past few games. Will he struggle here? Yes of course. But, he is a veteran within the college ranks. He has two solid running backs that will command the respect of the neatly ND front 7. I think if we get 17 from Pitt here, we cover, and I think it will happen.

One of the real reasons I am against ND here, is they are a statistical outlier within my system. Exactly how I view ND is how my spreadsheet looks at them. Because of how they have performed this year, I have them beating PItt by 7-10, but with how their stats correlate to winning and scoring, Pitt looks as though they’ve been more successful. In the Top 5 stats, Pitt ranks 7, 25, 84, 31, 8. ND ranks 63, 47, 38, 96, 81 respectively. In the Top 15 Pitt’s average rank is 52 while ND is 66.

So why has ND won? Brian Kelly. In my coaching system, I have Brian Kelly ranking much better than Pitt. I don’t expect them to lose this game, but I do expect for it to be close. This is a classic letdown spot (which I honestly don’t put much into) for ND, they are coming home after being 8-0 and taking down Oklahoma on the road (a team that I think is overrated). I think Pitt has some weapons they will be able to utilize here and a defense that will keep it relatively close.

Final Score

Pitt 17, ND 27


 

1* unit, Ole Miss +14 vs UGA

Can’t believe I am doing this again. It has been an exciting season as an Ole Miss fan and I am thrilled with how they’ve done. They’re 3 losses come against Bama, A&M and Texas. They could have limited that to two losses. I said last week, that I wouldn’t be on the Rebs again this weekend. Happens that I am.

Ole Miss has it, you all have heard my analysis on them like 7 times already this season. I honestly think they cover here if they don’t give up a TD to UGAs defense. I have Ole Miss with the better coach and the better correlation stats.

UGA is honestly a bunch of studs, and one of my pre-season picks to win the National Championship. There is still an outside shot of that. They are super athletic on defense, and their offense has tons of weapons. I honestly don’t see Ole Miss stopping them much. This play has more situational value in my mind.

UGA is off a HUGE win. A win that could save their season. They are coming home, and its always tough to play between the hedges. Ole Miss is a team that doesn’t give up. Freeze will keep these boys in it. He will have some plays up his sleeve. I don’t expect Ole Miss to win, but something we need to be cognizant of is teams that are 1 win away from a bowl game. These boys want this bowl game bad. They’ve had a rough few years, and it shows in their effort this season.

I think this one could be close, but Ole Miss covers.

Final Score

Ole Miss 27, UGA 37


 

1.5* units, LSU +10 vs Bama

Bama is super impressive. BY FAR, the best, complete team in the nation. I describe them as a well-oiled machine. They just execute. It starts in the trenches, where Bama dominates. The books have to be so annoyed with Bama because they just crush any spread Vegas sets. Are these two teams THAT much different?

To start, this also BY FAR the best D that Bama has faced. The difference in these teams is how well McCarron manages this offense. Bama can get a play action set up, where LSU struggles to do that. The stats do not favor LSU that much here honestly. In last years national championship game, Bama scoring started with 5 FGs. They didn’t score an offensive touchdown till the game was already over and Les has LSU D playing super aggressive. The game before that, LSU went into Bama and won. These teams aren’t THAT much different.

This will be a frustrating game to watch if you place this bet, because Les is a clown of a coach, but smart. Coming off of a bye, he’ll have a few packages to surprise Saban.

This will be the typical Bama/LSU game. Defensive, tough, well coached. I expect LSU to try and stick around with their D to get a few scores to make this one a bit interesting.

When it comes down to it, this is LSU chance for a national championship. With 1 loss, they have to beat Bama here for a chance to get to the SEC title game. They know it. The game is at home, and they are coming off of a bye. Rested, and ready. They have been ready to play this game all season, and they had to sit around last weekend and lick their chops. They should keep it closer than we think.

 


2.5* Units, Indiana -1.5 vs Iowa

Iowa opened as the favorite here; once again, like last week, the wrong team in my opinion. Indiana is a decent team that has been in every single game they’ve played. They got their first B1G of the season last week so they are over that hump. They also are 3-5 with probably 3 more winnable games. This one is a must.

They should have opened as the favorite. They are playing at home vs a crap Iowa team. The correlations have the Hoosiers being almost twice as good as Iowa has been this year. Indiana is also better coached. I think they win this one, and anything under a field goal is a solid line.

Indiana can move the ball and score in the red zone. Both teams protect the ball well. Iowa SUCKS throwing the ball, and in key situations (Red Zone, 3rd Down). Another reason why I like Indiana is their defense. They get in the backfield and make stuff happen. They are 11th in TFL and 31st in sacks.

Indiana wins this one at home; this team is not done fighting.

Final Score

IU 38, Iowa 34


2* Units, Northern Illy -34.5 vs Mass

Mass is baddddddd. I faded them last week and I will continue to do so here. Northern Illinois offense is very powerful. They move the ball quick and they score a lot. They are averaging 38 PPG and thats against everyone thats better than Massachusetts. Mass is giving up too many to count.

Mass is on a tough road trip, traveling from Mass to Tennessee last week, and now from Mass to Illinois. Northern Illy is sitting at 8-1, and in contention to win the MAC. They won’t overlook this game. Last week they had a terrible 1st Q vs. W Michigan and came back to win this one by 14. I expect them to come out blazing here and not stop.

Northern Illinois is a very efficient team. They are good in the RZ, and they pick up 3rd down conversions. Their offense should smoke this Mass defense. Their defense is not great, but they have been good enough for the amount of time they are on the field (which is a lot, because their offense scores quickly). They are aggressive, and get in the backfield and rank highly in sacks and TFL.

I think N Illy scores in the 50s here, Mass should not score more than 14.


Final Score

NI 55, Mass 14


2* Units, Florida -17 vs Missouri

Sure, Florida’s offense had a tough time last week. Georgia’s defense is VERY good. They get a banged up Missouri team, at home in the Swamp. They will be looking to get back on track and prove how good they are.

The offense runs through Driskel. He can make or break this team. He should  be handing the ball off as much as possible, and letting the OL pound the trenches against this Mizzou DL.

Missouri has James Franklin back in this one. He will be starting in the Swamp. He got some taste of action last week against UK, Leading the Tigers to 16 points. It won’t be easy here. Florida still in my mind has the best defense in the country, or is at least on par with that of Bama. They will eat him alive. Every single one of the DLmen are quick enough to contain him, and he never has been that accurate of a passer.

I really think Missouri struggles here to score an offensive TD. Teams with MUCH better offenses such as Tenn, A&M, SC, Georgia only scored 17, 20, 11, 17 respectively on this defense and 3 of those games were played away from the swamp. Missouri should not break double digits in this one.

Final Score

UF 34, Mizzou 10


1* Unit, Tulsa +8.5 vs Arky

Arky has been much improved since the beginning of the season. They hung with Ole Miss till the end last week, with the Rebs winning on a last second FG. TW has been the TW we expected. Moving the ball, but throwing some picks here and there. Arky is 3-5 and in serious trouble if they intend on making it to a bowl. Tulsa on the other hand is sitting at 8-1 with their only loss coming to a strong Iowa St team.

I first like Tulsa here because this is the super bowl effect I have talked about earlier in the year. They know Arky is vulnerable, and it goes a long way for a program like Tulsa (money, recruiting, ego, etc) to beat an SEC team. I think they get darn close. My numbers have Tulsa winning this one outright, but I think that they are a bit skewed from earlier in the season.

Arky has been actually decent in some of the stats that matter (YPPass, Pass Yds) but they have been downright terrible in everything else. Tulsa sucks in the correlation matrix because it loves teams that pass, which makes sense. They run the ball and do it well. Tulsa has been good in the RZ on both offense and defense, and I expect them to hang in this one just long enough to cover. They are obviously so much better coached than Arky.

Tulsa’s Pass D sucks, but on the contrary, they lead the nation in Sacks per game and are 2nd in TFL per game. That stat basically says their DBs are aggressive and around the LOS. TW is a good QB, so he should be able to get some things done here, but I he is also prone to turnovers, which I think this pressure will cause.

In the end, a team playing with the super bowl effect and still playing for a season that matters, that picks up a lot of 3rd and shorts, should cover this game and could even surprise Arky for the win.

Reason not to lay the ML: If the game is close at the end, Tulsa sucks at passing and Arky doesn’t.

Final Score

Tulsa 31, Arky 38

 


For analysis, commentary, plays and randomness, follow @mtsabert on twitter.

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25 Responses to “SabertStxVii Week 10 College Football Picks”

  1. OpeningLine OpeningLine says:

    Double check that Texas A&M play. They are 7 point favorites on the road, not dogs. Otherwise I also took Indiana and Ole Miss. I’m leaning LSU, but probably won’t pull the trigger.

  2. Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

    What’s up Sabert. I hope you are enjoying your vacation. Liking Pitt myself this week, waiting to see if it goes back to 17.

    • SabertStxVii SabertStxVii says:

      Pez — agreed 17 is a better number that could come into play here, and it looks like it already went back there.

      A lot of value plays for me this week, hopefully the book isn’t in for another tough week.

  3. Mike says:

    Thanks sabert! Drink a cold umbrella island cocktail for me

  4. Tim says:

    Pitt is one that absolutely jumped off the screen to me. When you hear announcers saying that “after this weekend, with the exception of Notre dame, we could see 3 of the unbeatens fall”…insane.
    Like you, I don’t think Pitt will win, but they are certainly good enough to cover (public perception value).
    LSU is strictly a value bet. 10 at home for a top 5 team.

    • SabertStxVii SabertStxVii says:

      I definitely think that ND has been overhyped by the media to this point and that has helped them a bit get to where they are, but it is somewhat deserved. I think Pitt has the ability to stay within the spread here, and there is quite a bit of value in it.

      You are dead on about LSU. 10 points, rivalry game, home running dog. Saban may burn us though.

  5. Falcon says:

    Saber do u have a lean in thursdays Vatech/Mia game?

    thanks

    • SabertStxVii SabertStxVii says:

      Falc — put a bit of analysis in a comment to FA down a few from yours. Lean VT, but not a lot of conviction on that one. Could be a close game.

      Thanks and best of luck.

  6. tom says:

    so ,does this mean texas a & m is NOT A PLAY anymore?

    • SabertStxVii SabertStxVii says:

      Tom — apologies for any inconvenience. Obviously when I thought I saw them at +7 and saw some of the comments between Trentmoney and others on the Week 10 sides to consider page, iit was a play. At -7, I don’t think that it is a play. I do still think that Miss St. is overrated, but this could be a tight game.

  7. wes says:

    Sabert,
    I love all the plays except Indiana. Iowa’s main issue in getting owned lately is not being able to run the ball. Finally, against Indy they will run for 4 -8 yards a clip on 1st down. IMO Iowa will controll the clock on offense, set up play action, and make enough stops on defense to get a win. Congrats on your season so far and keep it rolling buddy!
    Wes

    • SabertStxVii SabertStxVii says:

      Wes — you are definitely right on Iowa. They are a run heavy team. If they are picking up that much on 1st down, it may be a long day for Indiana. A few reasons on the contrary though while I still like Indy:

      1. Iowa’s #1 RB Weisman, who helped them turn around their season, is doubtful for this game. Even if he does go, he is banged up. That hurts their running game.
      2. Indiana can throw. I am a pretty big fan of taking teams that pass very well vs. one dimensional running teams. If those things you said about Iowa don’t happen, and they don’t set up the play action and pick up first downs, they are in BIG trouble here. They don’t have the ability to come back in a game.

      BOL this week my friend. Thanks.

  8. Fa says:

    Hammer – Do you like any of the Thursday night games this week? I’m leaning Vtech tonight.

    • SabertStxVii SabertStxVii says:

      FA you animal.

      Here is my opinion on the Thurs night game.

      Both teams are coming off of a bye and a tough loss. Miami lost to FSU and VTech to Clemson. Both expected. Both teams are sitting at 4-4 and need this game to stay above .500 and get closer to bowl eligibility.

      I have VTech as a 6 point favorite in this game, but the standard deviation between the performance you get from both of these teams is very high, and that is why it was not an official play. If both these teams come out and play the best game of the season, VT should win this one, and most likely cover.

      VT should be a good team and what they have done this season is underachieve. Logan Thomas is a freaking joke and people were talking about him being a 1st rd QB draft pick and in competition with Barkley. Both of them have fallen IMO. VT has turned things around finally since they have established some sort of running game.

      Miami on the other hand is young, and what we have seen is about what we have expected. Some moments of brilliance and 5 star recruits making big plays, but I saw some ridiculous stat that something like 40% of Miami’s roster is Frosh or RS Frosh. Thats tough.

      I think they could stay in this game because it is a Thursday night game at home, but gun to my head here I take VT. Beamer is good on Natl TV and actually really good away from home.

      Final Score

      VT 38 Miami 34

      • Bobby says:

        Don’t forget that Thomas’s entire O Line are freshman. QB’s tend not to do well with an inexperienced offensive line who almost gets them killed every time they drops back. lol

  9. ken says:

    lsu is at +8 for me now, should i lay off?

    • SabertStxVii SabertStxVii says:

      I don’t see value unless its at 9+. At 9 I’d play it for 1 unit, at 10, 1.5. This game is really just a value play. I think it could go either way, but the public loves Bama and the book needs to get the upper hand with this team I think.

      LSU is underrated, but also one dimensional. We need Mettenberger to do something here to keep LSU D off the field. Off the bye, I think they’ll have a few packages of quick passes to get him in the game.

  10. SabertStxVii SabertStxVii says:

    All — I will have a few more weekend plays coming later.

    Thanks.

  11. MoMoney says:

    Any thoughts on Tulsa (+7.5)? I haven’t seen anyone talking about this game. I am leaning towards Tulsa in this one and actually think they have a chance to win outright. Any thoughts you guys have would be appreciated.

    • SabertStxVii SabertStxVii says:

      MM — you are right. I had this one circled to check out at beginning of the week and had a play on it, just needed to do the write-up. They could easily walk away from this game, but I actually think Arky is just a bit too good to give this one away. Tulsa should cover.

  12. Swampdonk says:

    How bout Minnesota hosting Michigan.. gettin 12.5 when I could see them winning by a FG. Michigans offense seems to stay at home when they travel while Minnesota defends their place really well. The +12.5 is jumping out at me but I am super tempted to take ML +370. Thoughts?

    • Riley says:

      Minnesota has struggled against Michigan recently (haven’t beat them since ’05) and they got killed 58-0 last year.

      Minnesota has been good at home this year but they haven’t been tested there (biggest test an 8 pt loss to NW). I’d love to see Minnesota win (I’m an alum), but there are a ton of wild cards in this game that make this a tough game to play.

      Phillip Nelson looked great against Purdue in the first half, but this will only be his 3rd start and he didn’t complete a pass in the second half vs Purdue. Minnesota is also awful against the run so if Denard is healthy, he should have a huge game.

      Personally, I think there are too many unknowns for this to be a good play. There are better games out there.

      All that being said, I made a small play on Minnesota but only cause I know I’ll be watching the game.

      BOL

  13. Dave says:

    FYI on your Pitt/ ND bet. I do not know if any of these players will play or not. Good luck this weekend

    http://www.post-gazette.com/stories/local/neighborhoods-city/3-pitt-football-players-charged-with-assault-660311/

  14. marv martin says:

    Thanks for shifting me from Temple to Pitt last week.
    And I should have paid closer attention on that So Fla Syracuse game, where I got beat right at the end.
    Kudos on a great season. Keep up the good work

Trackbacks/Pingbacks

  1. Betting on College Football - Week 10 Quick Hitters - The Saturday Edge - [...] in the season, you may want to brace yourself for Saturday night. Saber has a write-up on this game …
  2. Pezgordo’s Week # 10 College Football Picks - [...] Irish homers would drive this one back to 17, so I waited. Sabert has a good write-up on this …
  3. TSE College Football Picks – Week # 10 Summary - [...] SabertStxVii [...]

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