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Jimmyshivers Week 10 ACC Football Picks

Jimmyshivers Week 10 ACC Football Picks

Finally had a big breakout week, going 9-3 and making back a big chunk of my deficit.  Over the last 2 weeks, I’ve gone 12-5 and cut out over 50% of the red ink in my ledger.  I really like this card this week, and may once again have a lot of plays.  Best of luck guys!

ACC Football PIcks YTD:  32-37 -17.36 units

Grabbed the first 4 here on the open @ BetOnline.com (tweeted them as I played them).

Week 10 ACC Card:

***** Virginia Cavaliers +14 -110 

*** Maryland Terrapins +7 -110 

*** Virginia Tech Hokies -2 -110 

*** Texas Tech Red Raiders -2.5 -110 

*** Boston College / Wake Forest Over 52 -110

*** San Jose St Spartans -19 -108

*** Duke Blue Devils +13.5 -110

*** Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners +32 -108

*** Texas Christian Horned Frogs +4.5 -105

*** Southern Cal / Oregon Under 72.5 -110

*** UCLA Bruins -2.5 -110

 

Write-ups forthcoming..

***** Virginia Cavaliers +14 -110

My first  5-star play of the entire season finds me backing a team that has yet to cover a game this year, but it’s in a fantastic spot and a really good match-up.  I just don’t see how NC State should be laying 2 TD’s to anyone in this league right now, they just aren’t the kind of team that blows people out (their 3 wins over BCS-conference teams are by a combined 6 points) and are coming off an absolute heartbreaker of a loss to UNC where they blew a double digit 4th quarter lead over their arch-rivals and lost control of the ACC Atlantic.  I have to wonder where their heads are at this week.

For NC State it’s been a season of close calls, and they don’t do the important things to extend leads like run the football well (2.83 yards per carry versus FBS schools ranks 114th nationally) or get ‘unexpected’ points (0 defensive of special teams scores versus FBS opponents).  For a Virginia team that’s really struggled with turnovers and special teams play this season (-16 turnover margin) it’s important to feel they have a chance in the turnover battle, and an NC State team thats 78th nationally in TO margin in the hundreds in kick and punt returns isn’t very likely to exploit them.

Virginia is coming off a bye, and they spent a lot of time in the off week working on the execution issues that have plagued them this season.  Their issues with consistency stem from the fact that they are a fairly young team and they have had a hard time finding a steady rotation at several  key positions.  I felt like in the last game they finally committed to the quarterback who gave them the best chance of winning in Alabama transfer Phillip Sims.  I’m looking for Virginia to stick with Sims the rest of the way and I think it they should have some success throwing the ball against a State secondary that has drastically underachieved this year and actually rates as one of the worst teams against the pass in the ACC.  The Cavs have outgained their last 4 opponents and if they take care of the football they should have success moving the ball.

Virginia has had a ton of breaks go against them, and I believe that this is a talented team with decent coachign that is still playing hard (last two losses by a single score) and this is a definite buy-low point.  Last year they also struggled out the gate, going 0-3 ATS before the bye week only to rally the next week and upset GT as 7 point underdogs (and a 4-2 ATS finish).  UVA was favored by 5 in this match-up last season, and though they lost that game a 19 point swing is pretty  drastic.  I’m an NC State fan, but also realistic here and this is a team that has overachieved and could easily be 3-5 and in the Atlantic cellar.

I realize that 14 is no longer widely available, I would take UVA as a 4-unit play down to +10 and a 3-unit play down to plus 7.  Given the situation and match-up, this is an extremely losable game for the Wolfpack and getting more than a score just offers good value.  I’ll be taking a shot at the moneyline as well.  NC State 31 UVA 28

*** Maryland Terrapins +7 -110

I don’t care if it’s Ralph Friedgen is playing QB for Maryland, Georgia Tech should not be laying a TD on the road in the ACC  right now to anyone with a good defense.   Georgia Tech is in absolute defensive disarray right now, allowing 40+ points in 4 of their last 5 games and last week getting completely kept out of the endzone offensively against BYU.  It’s a tough blow for Maryland for sure to lose their last scholarship QB, but I think it offers a bit of a strategic advantage this week in that a poorly drilled Georgia Tech defense has no idea what to expect from Maryland’s offense.  Maryland has the 3rd ranked rushing defense in the country (only allowing 2.27 ypc) and I just don’t see how a Georgia Tech offense that’s struggling with consistency and in the beginning stages of a QB controversy is able to move the football.  I get that people are wary to back Maryland without a quarterback, but it’s not like they had a great offense in the first place.  The Terps will find a way to get the ball into the hands of Stefon Diggs here, and they’ll make enough plays to put up some points and cover the number.  Georgia Tech is reeling, and it’s hard to see them pulling away here.  I’ll be taking some ML here as  well with the better team getting a  full score at home.  Terps 20, GT 13

*** Virginia Tech Hokies -2 -110

Not afraid to play the road chalk on Thursday night again, I think Miami is massively overvalued and is playing  a team that’s a tough match-up for them.  While VT is a couple of notches below what we’ve come to expect from Frank Beamer and company, they fit the same kind of profile (physical teams who like to run the ball with strong defensive fronts) of the teams that have given the Canes the most trouble (FSU, Kansas St and Notre Dame).  Both teams are coming off a bye here so the short  week isn’t too much of a distraction, and I don’t see how the Hokies can afford to look ahead to FSU next week as they are still chasing bowl eligibility and the ACC Coastal division leaders.  Miami has one of the worst defensive fronts in all of major college football (5.3 ypc allowed this season, only 6 sacks vs FBS) so it looks like a good match-up for a Hokies line that really struggled early but has improved lately (4.5 ypc in last 3 games).  I just see Miami getting whipped up front on both lines and the Hokies having good success moving the football here.  I’m not a big trends guy, but a good one that Pez sent me is that Frank Beamer is 25-4 ATS in the month of November since 2004.  Virginia Tech 36 – Miami 30

*** Texas Tech Red Raiders -2.5 -110

I played this one immediately on open, and got a fantastic price (I recommend playing this one up to -6.5).  My numbers made Texas Tech -16.5 here, I just see the Longhorns as a team that’s reeling right now.  Texas is having its annual crisis of consistency and is going to Lubbock for a really tough match-up.   Texas Tech is a team that makes very few defensive mistakes (only 18 plays allowed of over 20 yards this year) and to beat them you have to be able to move the football consistently.  Texas has decent offensive splits, but when you consider they’ve only played one top 40 team in total defense this season (#19 Oklahoma) who held them to 289  yards and 2 offensive scores (most of which came in garbage time) you realize that it’s a bit of a misleading statistical identity.   What we do know is that this is a defense that’s really struggling, as they’ve allowed 50, 63, 48 and 36 to the top 40 teams in total offense they’ve faced.  Texas Tech has an offense that can both run and throw the ball well (ranks #10 in total offense), and teams with good balance are really tearing up this defense.  I feel like Texas Tech isn’t a fluke, their a good team who got rolled by a freight train last weekend.  For a  Texas team going the wrong way (and a seat heating up for Mack) it’s going to be very tough to hang close on the road this week.  Tech 38, Texas 22.

*** Boston College-Wake Forest Over 52 -110

After a couple of weeks backing off the Boston College over train due to tough defensive match-ups, its time to hop back on.  Boston College is an excellent over team against defenses that are not top 25 caliber, because they throw the ball a ton and actually have a couple of pretty good playmakers in the passing game.  Wake Forest has struggled offensively but I look for them to be improved this week now that they have their most critical offensive play maker back (Campanaro) going against a really porous BC defenses.  Both these defenses are really poor in some stats that I consider key in getting overs; they both rank in the bottom 10 nationally of red zone trips allowed per game, they both rank below 100th nationally in 3rd down percentage conversions allowed, and neither team is in the top half nationally in forcing turnovers.  In short these are two teams who don’t do a good job at getting the other team off the field, and they both let their opponents into the red zone often.  This total is kept lower due to Wake’s offensive struggles, but matching up against a porous BC defense is a pretty good cure.   Wake 34, BC 31.

***  San Jose St Spartans -19 -108

My numbers have Idaho as the worst team in the country, and they just look like a team in complete disarray.   Their coming off a bye week that was anything but healing, as the Vandals fired coach Robb Akey and kicked their starting QB off the team.  The firing of the coach was seen as a a divisive move, with a player getting suspended after tweeting about the motives of the Athletic Director.  Now they have to play a pretty good San Jose State team that needs a win to go ahead and lock up bowl eligibility.  It just looks like a situation for Idaho to go ahead and pack it up  on the season, they’ve lost their last 2 by 83 points and their last loss completely eliminated them from bowl consideration.  San Jose State is pretty explosive offensively (top 20 in plays over 10 and 20 yards) with a passing attack that should exploit an awful Idaho secondary. They should have plenty of space to operate against  a Idaho defense that allows 73% of Red Zone possesions to go for TD’s (114th) and ranks 118th nationally in plays allowed that go for 20+ yards.  San Jose has won 4 games by more than 10 points against FBS teams, and each of those teams would be double digit favorites in my opinion at Idaho.  I just see a total mismatch here and expect this one to be over early.  Would play this one at anything under -21.  SJS 47, Idaho 10.

*** Duke Blue Devils +13.5 -110

Taking the home dog with an offensive pulse here in a game that should see plenty of  points.  Knew Duke was in trouble last week, it was a bad match-up in an awful spot for them, but this week finds them going against a Clemson defense that’s prone to giving up big plays (Tigers 109th in plays allowed over 20 yards) which gives them a good chance to move the ball consistently.  Had  to wait to make this play as the health of QB Renfree was in question, but he practiced yesterday and looks good to go for the weekend.

This line is a little funny, in that just last week Clemson was actually laying less on the road to a Wake Forest team that Duke beat in Winston-Salem.  Clemson does get a little extra rest this week but they find themselves on the road for the second straight week going against  a Duke team that is 5-0 SU and ATS at home.  Obviously this is a huge step up in opposition from Memphis and FIU , but it’s nice to back a team in prime time thats playing well at home.  Two weeks ago Duke was catching DD at home to a team with a very similar profile to Clemson in North Carolina and beat them outright after covering wire to wire.

Both these teams are playing very well and are a combined 14-5 ATS, but overall Clemson has really struggled with stopping decent offenses from moving the ball.   By my numbers, these are two very similarly ranked defenses and the offensive edge isn’t enough to expect Clemson to cover as DD chalk on the road again.  For a Duke team that still has their sights set on making it to Charlotte in December, this week offers a great chance to put the beat down in Tallahassee behind them and face forwards.  I’m expecting a tight game, but Clemson is also the kind of team who could leave the backdoor open if we need it. Clemson 37, Duke 31.

*** Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners +32 -108

Think there’s some value fading Louisiana Tech this week, I feel like their overpriced on these big numbers with a really weak defense that’s going  to give up a lot of yards and points.  You have to take UTSA’s numbers with a grain of salt since their in a transition year and have played more FCS games than normal, but they’ve played a couple of pretty good WAC teams (2 of which, SJS and Utah State, I’d argue are better than LT) and stayed within this number even with their backup QB.  This week UTSA get’s their starting QB back (Eric Souza, 58.7% completions 11-1 TD/INT ratio) so should be able to move the ball against an LT defense that’s far from top shelf (28 points allowed in every game but 2 this season).  Louisiana Tech has what originally looked like an impressive collection of OOC scalps in Virginia, Illinois and Houston (combined ATS: 5-18-1) but those are three of the biggest underachievers in the country this year.   Aside from the absolutely hapless Idaho (covered in the San Jose St write-up) LT hasn’t covered this  number all season.  If we aren’t covering this game late Louisiana Tech has the kind of defense  to leave the backdoor wide open (over 500 yards allowed per game this year).  I’ll take more than 4 scores against an overrated opponent with little to play for here.  LT 44, UTSA 27

*** Texas Christian Horned Frogs +4.5 -105

write-up forthcoming

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12 Responses to “Jimmyshivers Week 10 ACC Football Picks”

  1. Greg says:

    Fellow State fan here Jimmy. I’ve followed you on twitter for a few weeks (I’m @BojanglesSweetT)and I’ve seen you refer to your spreadsheet numbers a couple of times now. As a bettor who is trying to become more analytical, what can you tell me about how you develop your numbers in excel so that I may get started on my own?

    • jimmyshivers jimmyshivers says:

      Hey Greg,

      For me using excel for college football is something I’ve done for a long time, but just in the past 2 weeks I’ve really stepped up my efforts to develop an automated way of looking at the 124 FBS teams. First of all, I highly recommend http://www.cfbstats.com/, they have a ton of sortable stats for every team that are easy to import into a spreadsheet.

      If your looking at their stats, I recommend sorting by ‘vs. FBS’ to remove the bloated stats from playing the early-season FCS games that are ultimately irrelevant to a teams statistical identity. Then you want to pick a few stats that you think are ultimately relevant (a few of the ones that I import include 3rd down conversions and red zone success for both the offense and the defense). Stength of schedule is important as well, and I like the rankings provided by teamrankings.com for this purpose.

      After I’ve imported the stats and sorted alphabetically within excel to get just one team on each line, comes the hard part. You have to toy around with your stats to make the normalized, for example I take the offense and defensive 3rd down % and divide by 3 (60% becomes 20.0). I then add up all my offensive stats and defensive stats separately and subtract the d stats from the o stats to get an overall power ranking.

      If you have any specific questions I’d be more than happy to address them, admittedly I’m pretty new to some of the excel commands. I don’t trust my numbers alone, but they do give me a place to start and see opening line value (by running my numbers early sunday I knew to be ready to jump all over those Texas Tech and Virginia lines). Hope this helps Greg

  2. Brett says:

    Jimmy- the MAN!! You guys are rockin. How did you get textech @ -2.5? I have it @ bookmaker as -7

    • jimmyshivers jimmyshivers says:

      Appreciate it Brett,

      After weeks of watching the lines I like move against me, I decided to get more proactive this week and play some openers (Betonline.com releases lines around 4:30 – 4:40 pm). I had already ran my #’s for the week and felt like that one offered a ton of value. It quickly popped up to 3.5 before going all the way to 7. I also liked Texas A&M @ the -2.5 opener but regrettably decided to pass.

      FWIW, I would play Texas Tech all the way up to 6.5 here, my numbers have them by 16.5 and Texas is (once again) just an absolute mess. Best of luck

  3. Big Daddy says:

    Jimmy love your insight on here, twitter, and BTB forum. I respect your opinion and seeing your confidence within the NCST/VU game I took a look at it myself.

    What are your thoughts on how bad VU has played on the road this year? I was looking at the H/A splits and the stats for VU defense on the road were staggering. Their competition on the road has been tough so the numbers could be misleading, but I was wondering your thoughts on that. I wish I could have got the 14, but its down to 10 at my book.

    Also you did point out how bad NCSU has been on the ground, and VU run defense has not been great against the run. Do you think NCSU could take advantage of that?

    Not questioning you by any measure, just a few questions. Just a beginning handicapper trying to get better in the college game. Thanks and keep up the great work.

    • jimmyshivers jimmyshivers says:

      Not sure what the BTB forum is BD, but I appreciate the support. Addressing your points..

      UVA has some ugly box scores on the road so far. Digging a little deeper, they were in two of their 3 road games for awhile (they lead Duke at the half and were moosed badly by TCU throwing for a very late score) before things broke against them. The Georgia Tech loss was wholly ugly but it was against a GT team that was playing well at the time and not the train wreck you see before you. Obviously it’s a bit troubling that they didn’t cover this 14 number in their 3 road games, but I’m giving them a bit of a pass on that here as I’ve seen some positive signs of increasing stability the last couple of weeks.

      At the number 10, I would still play UVA, but only for a 4 unit play. I feel that this is a one-score game and anything more than that represents value on the dog here in my opinion.

      Looking at UVA against the run, the numbers aren’t really that bad, they’ve allowed 4.3 yards per carry in their FBS games and they’ve actually been pretty consistent, allowing 5.0 ypc to only two teams (GT and surprisingly Duke). I’ve already talked about States troubles on the ground, and they took another hit this week when they announced one of their RB’s (James Washington) is done for the season. Considered with the removal of Mustafa Greene, their actually pretty thin at running back. I don’t see much success there.

      I appreciate the comments BD, I really do appreciate the questions and feedback. The best way for us to learn is to share information and gain insight into how each other thinks. Feel free to comment any time, and best of luck this weekend.

      • Big Daddy says:

        Thanks. Just got down on VU +10.

        Is there anyway I could contact you through email? This is my second year really wagering seriously and have a few questions about developing power rankings after reading your response to the earlier comment about power rankings.

        I understand if you don’t want to give it out and it makes sense, thought I might as well try. If not, do you know anybody else I could contact or talk to about developing my own power rankings? I could always ask the questions on here, if you thought that would be better.

        Again thanks for all the work you’ve been putting out this year, helping me make a few dollars!! Let me know on regards to power rankings. I think you can see my email through me commenting on this, so you could always just send me an email there, and I completely understand if its not gonna work out for x reason.

  4. OpeningLine OpeningLine says:

    Virginia Tech (especially their defense) has been bad on the road this year, suffering double digit losses at Pitt, UNC, and Clemson. I don’t think Miami is as good as Clemson, but they might be in the same conversation as Pitt and UNC. Then again, big coaching edge to VaTech, especially coming off the bye. We’ll see if Beamer can turn them around.

    • jimmyshivers jimmyshivers says:

      I agree that VT has definitely struggled on the road, but they’ve actually played a pretty good group of teams (0-4 away from B-berg with games atUNC, Clemson and Pitt with a neutral with Cincinnatti). I vehemently disagree that Miami is in the same conversation with UNC or Pitt, Carolina played an awful game down there (15 penalties, couple of key red zone mistakes) and still went for nearly 500 yards and pulled of a W at Miami. If I’m wrong (it’s happened a lot this year), I’m willing to pay to see it Thursday night.

      On a bit of an unrelated note, VT’s coaching staff has been steadily slipping for several years it feels like. Each of the past 5 years I’ve lowered their ranking in my preseason numbers. The continuity that was once their strength has lead to a culture of comfort and stale ideas. Special teams, which was once a strength for them, has faded significantly and has actively hurt them on several occasions. I just feel like the Coastal division is pretty weak and VT will do what they always do which is close strong enough to get routed in Charlotte.

  5. Trentmoney says:

    i was thinking the exact same thing about duke when the line was 14/14.5 but didn’t want to play it until i got confirmation about renfree…now at current price i will pass unless it gets back to 14

    good luck

Trackbacks/Pingbacks

  1. Pezgordo’s Week # 10 College Football Picks - [...] Jimmyshivers has a great write-up about this one here. [...]
  2. Betting on College Football - Week 10 Quick Hitters - The Saturday Edge - [...] due in large part to a big line of scrimmage advantage for the Hokies. His write-up can be found …

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