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Pezgordo’s Week # 9 College Football Picks

Pezgordo’s Week # 9 College Football Picks

Pezgordo’s College Football Picks – YTD: 51-48 ATS 

6-5 last week. I again went 5-5 on posted picks, but nailed the newsletter ML parlay pick, needing an absolute miracle finish out of Ohio State to preserve the win. I started Saturday out 5-0 and then faded hard with some questionable picks (Kansas & Southern Miss) and some bad luck (lost the UCF – Memphis total on 2 defensive TDs and a garbage TD w/ 39 seconds left in the game),

Beating the closing line

Last week I beat the closing line in 9 of 10 games and my overall closing line value for week # 8 was +1.05.

After 8 weeks I have beaten the closing line in 72 of 97 games (74.23%), I have matched the closing line in 13 other games and I have wagered on the wrong side of the closing number in 12 games for an overall closing line value of +1.25

Pezgordo’s Week # 9 College football Picks

Iowa – Northwestern U 49.5

Iowa’s offense isn’t very good, but they have a solid D (allowing 20.83 ppg to teams that avg 24.86 ppg). Neither team really has any playmakers on offense, Iowa averages 4.93 yards per play (11th in the B1G) & Northwestern is 6th at 5.19 ypp. Defensively Northwestern is allowing 25.29 ppg to teams that average 25.82 ppg, whereas Iowa is averaging 19.83 ppg on offense against teams that allow 23.25 ppg.

Kentucky – Missouri U 49 (1.5 units)

Two struggling offenses with QB issues. In 5 SEC games Kentucky is avg 12.60 ppg, in 4 SEC games Missouri is avg 13.75 ppg. Missouri is dead last in the SEC in pass efficiency and UK is 10th. Missouri is also dead last in the league in rushing yards per game and UK is 9th. Neither defense is in the top half of the league, but they have both played some of the best offenses in the SEC including Georgia, Alabama, Arkansas and Mississippi State.

I used this game as our weekly SEC video at SECPRESSPASS. We are 6-1 the last 7 weeks with the video.

Auburn +14.5

Unles you are Alabama, this is too many points to give in an SEC road game. Auburn was in a position to beat Vandy last week but turned the ball over on downs in Vandy territory on their final possession. Johnny Football has some amazing stats, but the majority of them were accumulated against non-SEC schools and an Arkansas team that was discombobulated at the time. Against the other 3 SEC D’s A & M has faced, they are averaging 22 ppg and allowing 23.67 ppg. I am certainly not suggesting that Auburn’s D is anywhere near as good as Florida and LSU’s, but it is probably in the range of Mississippi’s, and Ole Miss held A & M to 23 offensive points.

Arizona +7

The Arizona offense has put up a ton of yards and points against better defenses than what USC brings to Tucson on Saturday. With Oregon up next week, USC could also be considered in a “look ahead spot,” though I put very little value in that garbage.

Notre Dame – Oklahoma U 48.5

Two of the better defenses in college football and one team struggles to score on offense. Notre Dame has allowed 5 TDs all season and we are in week # 9 (Alabama has allowed 6). This is a good defense. By contrast the Notre Dame offense has put up 20, 20, 13, 20 (7 in OT) & 17 points vs the 5 best D’s they’ve faced all year, only two of which (BYU & Michigan State) have a better defensive ppg average than OU.

Michigan +3

Nebraska’s D typically struggles against dual threat QBs. Now they face one of the best dual threat QBs in college football (well I don’t know how much of a dual threat Robinson is considering his passing deficiencies). Except for that Alabama game, the Michigan D has been solid. Revenge spot for Nebraska ….. Whatever!

Michigan State +7 (-115)

Bad spot for Sparty, they put everything into beating Michigan last week, that was their Super Bowl …. Blah, blah, blah. At 4-4 Michigan State cannot afford a let down, they need to start winning some football games. They’ve lost 3 B1G games by a total of 6 points. Wisky is back on track, they’ve won three in a row, their running game is finally performing like we thought it would … blah, blah, blah. They beat Illinois (the worst team in the league), Purdue (who’s D sucks) and Minny …. that’s not saying much. I’ll take the +7 in what should be a defensive battle.

Georgia +7

In what has to be one of the most misleading box scores of the year, Florida scored 44 points on South Carolina last week while gaining 184 yards. You think the Gamecocks gift-wrapped that one? In their past three games Florida has passed for 94, 77 & 61 yards. This is still a one-dimensional offense being asked to cover a TD on a neutral field in a rivalry game.

Mississippi State – Alabama U 48

This will be the best defense that either team has seen all season long. A good Bulldog secondary should keep big plays in the passing game to a minimum. I believe the Miss State team total is 12.5, so no one, including myself is expecting them to score a lot of points in Tuscaloosa.

UCLA +7 (-120)

Alma mater be damned, I have looked at this game from every angle and can’t see why ASU is a TD favorite. Statistically these two teams are nearly dead even. Versus their competition level, I have ASU 2 points better on offense and on defense I surprisingly have UCLA +0.75. ASU is banged up on the DL and I am pretty sure that DT Will Sutton will not be playing tomorrow. You saw how important Sutton was last week against Oregon. On the first play of the game he blew up the Oregon zone read option causing a fumble. Unfortunately he was injured on that play and it was all downhill from there for the Devil D. UCLA has a good rushing attack and should have some success tomorrow against the ASU run D.

 

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18 Responses to “Pezgordo’s Week # 9 College Football Picks”

  1. doug says:

    BOL as Alwats. Looks like a very nice card.
    How many times did beating the closeing line come into play?

    • Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

      Thanks Doug. Good question on the number of times beating the closing line has come into play. I went back over my games and there were 6 instances where I would have lost had I not beat the closing line.

      Considering I am 69-61 on the season (all games wagered, not just posted), that is close to 10% of my winners (it would actually be right at 10% If I deduct my 8 ML parlay wins).

      Here are the games where beating the closing line paid off:

      Indiana – UMASS U 51 (final score 45-6), line closed at 48.5 …. this was a push

      Alabama – Arkansas U 54 (52-0), line closed at 49 … WIN

      Vandy – UGA U 55 (48-3), line closed at 49.5 …. WIN

      Colorado State +13 (19-31), line closed at 11.5 … WIN

      Michigan – Purdue U 59 (44-13), line closed at 55 … WIN

      Iowa State +7 (21-27, Line closed at 6 …. WIN

      Of the 12 games where I did not get the better of the closing line, none of them had an effect on my wager.

  2. Nick says:

    What exactly does it mean to beat the closing line?

    • Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

      Nick, the closing line is the final number available before kickoff. The objective is to beat this final number. The premise being that in an efficient marketplace if you are constantly beating this number than you are doing something right.

      For example, if a game opens at -6 and closes at -9, it most likely means that someone and/or some influential group saw value at -6 all the way to -9, and no one with influence saw any value at +6, +7, +8 or +9.

      So if you were on the -6 or -6.5 and the number closed at 9, you were on the “right” side or the same side as the guys who moved the line.

      It doesn’t mean and/or guarantee you are going to win that particular wager, but in the long term you are more likely to win when you beat the closing line.

  3. Trentmoney says:

    It’s also a way to gauge your perception of the market and of line value…if you had that game priced at 4 you would have jumped on +6, only to see your view of the marketplace proven wrong as it climbed to +9…time to adjust your power ratings and lines…if you had that game priced at over a TD or -10, then you jumped at -6 seeing that was a cheap price, and that the market would move in your favor…scalpers make a living at this with reduced juice outs, and trying to hit “middles”…but for the handicapper just playing straights, it increases your probability of winning (-6 instead of -9 and the game ends at 7 turns a loss into a win) and confirms that you’re ratings and ability to set lines are sharp

    • Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

      Trent brings up some more very good points, especially about gauging your perception of the market. You want the opinion of the marketplace to be in line with yours as often as possible.

  4. Nick says:

    Ohh, okay. Thanks so much guys. Is beating-the-closing-line is more an observation after the fact, rather than something you can monitor and jump on? I can see how checking up on how the line moves can be a valuable tool for evaluating models. When the Sportsbook sets their lines, are they always trying to set it as close to the actual outcome as they can predict or do they also create lines to capitalize on public opinion?

    • Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

      Nick, you can only monitor whether or not you have beaten the closing line after the fact (but you usually have a pretty good idea during the week if you are on the right side if the line movement).

      However, to actually beat the closing line, it is usually something that has to happen beforehand during the week (unless of course the closing line ends up being the best line available).

      I am sure in a perfect world the bookmakers would love to set a line that generated wagers 50/50 on each side, but that isn’t how it works. Therefore I believe the bookmaker is setting a line whereby they can take advantage of public opinion. I believe that is why a lot of “public” teams have inflated lines.

  5. doug says:

    Thanks for the response. Looks like you guys agree on Ky Under
    Geo + 7 and Aub + 15 this week so far. I like those plays with 2 of you are on them.

  6. OpeningLine OpeningLine says:

    Pez, I really like Auburn +14.5 this week too. I think that is way too many points to be laying on the road. Auburn has to be able to contain Manziel though. They had trouble against scrambling QB’s Browning of ULM and Boyd of Clemson earlier in the year. Also, the way to move the ball on this A&M defense is by throwing on their young secondary. I’m not sure Auburn has a potent enough passing attack to establish drives throughout the game. Still, 14.5 is a lot of points for an A&M team that has been shaky on the road.

    • Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

      A few other things to consider. Neither Florida or LSU were able to pass the ball on A & M. Of course they both have solid run games and elite defenses, but the Auburn D is better than their stats would indicate at first glance.

      They’re allowing 411 ypg, but that is against some pretty good offenses (teams that avg 417.30 ypg). And other than Ole Miss, a game that was 27-20 late before two big/freak plays inflated the final score, and Vandy (because they only avg a little over 13 ppg), Auburn has held every other opponent below their offensive season avg.

      So I am not as concerned about the Auburn defense as I am about their offense. They are going to need to score some points in this game (at least 20+). The A & M D has played surprisingly well all season except for that La Tech game.

      But bottom line, 14.5/15 points is just too many to give on the SEC road unless you are an elite team, and A & M is having a solid first year in the SEC, but I don’t think they are an elite team by any measure.

  7. GoSooners GoSooners says:

    Pez, I also got OU/ND under 48 for a half a unit. That’s about as far as I want to play this game. Whenever Stoops plays a good rushing team, he likes to try to match and test them with a run of their own early in the game. So I suspect we’ll get a healthy dose of Williams in the first half to take some pressure off Landry Jones. BOL tomorrow.

    • Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

      That’s good if Stoopy tries to run the ball w/ ND. I don’t think OU will have too much success, the ND front seven is pretty salty. Who knows what will happen, but I see this as a 24-14 type of game …….. w/ OU winning …. maybe. HA!

  8. GoSooners GoSooners says:

    Pez, I watch Stoops interviews and weekly show. And whenever OU plays a good rushing team that week, he always talks up OU’s ruhsing game and how imperative it is to be able to run the ball. If a team like WV or Texas Tech comes to town, I don’t hear a word about the run. He knows like we do how your chances go up in covering the spread if you can halfway match the other team’s rush numbers. What I’ll be looking forward to watching in that game is how successful the Sooners will be when they get in the red zone using the Belldozer. OU is one of the best red zone offenses in the country. And ND one of the best rush defenses in the red zone. Something’s got to give. But I have a feeling it’s going to lead to more FG’s than OU normally has. As long as OU wins the game, I’ll happily trade the 7’s for 3’s to get the under.

  9. Trentmoney says:

    I count 10…

Trackbacks/Pingbacks

  1. Betting on College Football - Week 9 Quick Hitters - [...] Tracking the trend of the year. Last week, I noted that double digit home underdogs (with the spread between …
  2. TSE College Football Picks – Week # 9 Summary - [...] Pezgordo [...]

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