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TSE Week 9 Guest Handicapper Challenge

TSE Week 9 Guest Handicapper Challenge

Last week we held our second Saturday Edge Guest Handicapper Challenge and we again ended up with three readers going 4-1, including one of the previous weeks co-winners, MoMoney. Fortunately this time I explained the tie-breaker scenario a little better and we came away with a clear-cut winner.

TSE Featured Guest Handicapper for Week # 9

Last weeks Guest Handicapper Challenge winner was Riley. Riley went 4-1 last week and he edged out our previous winner MoMoney by 3 points in the tie-breaker.

Riley’s Picks for Week # 9

Hello everyone from your Week 8 Guest Handicapper Champion!  First, I want to thank all The Saturday Edge guys.  I’ve been following the site since week one, and I really like what you are doing!

This is my first season seriously betting on college football and it’s been a great ride.  Long gone are the Saturdays of brunches, going to a specific teams bar to watch ONE game at a time, or speaking with friends that don’t have money on the game.  Replacing them are 11:00 am wake up calls to take a final look at the week’s card, 2 TVs alternating between 4+ games at a time, a computer w/ tabs open to Sportsbook, 5dimes, ESPN & Twitter, and an ever-warm grill in the “backyard”.

Oh, and the phone loaded to BetBud which is the one advice I will give all bettors: pay the $3 to get BetBud on your iPhone.  You enter you picks, it tracks the progress of your bets, your season stats, and even lets you send your picks to a friend.  2nd best app I have behind Spotify.  Like I said, it’s been a great season.  Here are my picks for week 9:

Game of the Week: Notre Dame +10.5  OK wins 20-13

Ugh, I can’t believe I am starting with this one… but I like Notre Dame this week.  They are my third least favorite team behind the Badgers and the Hawkeyes (guess where I went to school), but I can’t help it this week.  Notre Dame defense has just been so good (6th in total D & 2nd in scoring D).  Fun stat: Notre Dame’s D is giving up an average of 9.43 pts/game, a full point less than the points they are getting from OU!  Now, I’m not saying that they hold OU under 10 pts, but I think OU’s offense is getting more credit than they should.  Last three weeks, they’ve put 40+ up against TTech, Texas, & Kansas, not exactly top rate defenses.  However, in their one game against a solid defense (Kansas St) they only scored 19 points and only scored 2 TDs on 5 red zone possessions.  Notre Dame has been excellent on defense in the Red Zone (53% total & only 4 TDs in 19 drives).  If Notre Dame is able to control OU’s offense and make them settle for FGs instead of TDs, I think ND’s pedestrian O can get them enough points (10-14 should be good), to let their defense keep them close to the end.

Mich +2.5

Michigan has been a little bipolar so far this season but there is a pretty clear difference between their good games and bad: their ability to run the ball.  In their 3 bad offensive games (the 2 L’s and MSU) they averaged 131 rushing yards.  In their 4 good offensive game, they averaged 291.  Nebraska’s run D is ranked 90th in the country and gave up 371 rushing yards to OSU.  Braxton Miller ran 186 yards alone and I think Robinson could have similar stats.  Michigan should win outright.  I wouldn’t be surprised if Michigan blows them out. Extra credit: Michigan’s D is top 20 in yards and scoring.  Michigan wins 31-27

Ole Miss +6 

Arkansas is back!  Really?  After beating Auburn & Kentucky?  I’ll believe it when I see it.  Meanwhile, Ole Miss is still getting the Rodney Dangerfield treatment.  They’ve played well almost every game this year (other than vs. Texas).  They need two wins to be bowl eligible and w/ 3 of 5 games left against top 15 teams, they know they have to win this one.  This is another one where I think the dog wins outright.  Food for Thought: while this game is being played in Arkansas, it’s in Little Rock, not Fayetteville.  Little Rock is basically equidistant from Fayetteville & Oxford.  On a truly neutral field, w/o reputation, is Arkansas really 6 pts better than the Rebs this season?  Ole Miss wins 35-31

Clemson -12 

I tried to talk myself out of this one, but couldn’t.  It appears Boyd is at least probable to play.  Despite having a 4-3 record, Wake Forest is bad.  They are 117th in Completion % & 95th in yards/carry.  I don’t see how they score enough to keep up with Clemson.  The other side of the ball isn’t much better.  They let Florida St & Army exceed their average yards/game by 80 & 50 respectively.  If they let Clemson get to 500 yards (492.8 avg), this game won’t be close.  Clemson wins 38-17

Northwestern -6

I’ll be quick here.  Here’s another team still getting no respect.  They are well coached & good at protecting the ball.  Iowa, on the other hand, has been anemic on offense.  Northwestern should be able to limit their run game and move the ball well enough to put up points.  I went back & forth on whether to play NW or the under; stuck with NW here but will probably play both.  NW should win by 7-14 points.  NW wins 23-13

That’s it for me.  Tweet me if you want to discuss my picks @ettin009.  Good luck!

 


 

Guest Handicapper Overview & Requirements

Here is a quick synopsis of the challenge. Each week, as many college football handicappers that want to can submit 5 games ATS in the comments section below. On Sunday morning I’ll figure out which handicapper had the best record, and the following week that handicapper will be the featured guest handicapper on The Saturday Edge.

He  (or she?) can submit 5 selections with detailed analysis the following week. They can submit their bio, picture(s), website address, twitter address, email address, anything that is appropriate.

Anyone can enter. Just place your 5 Best Picks ATS in the comments section below.

1. If possible (but not a requirement), please give us a short write-up and analysis for each game.

2. There cannot be any duplicate cards. So if someone has already selected the 5 games in which you were going to play, you must change at least one of your sides/totals.

3. Please use current spreads and totals.

4. Please do not buy points. If the current spread is +2.5, do not use +3 (-120), etc.

TIE-BREAKER

1. Please submit ONE FINAL SCORE for any game of your choice among your 5 picks. Obviously if this game loses, then you automatically lose your chance to be involved in the tie-breaker. So choose wisely which game you will use for your final score.

2. I will then take the actual final score difference of the game you selected, minus your projected final score difference to determine your tie-breaker number. So if OU beats Notre Dame this week 27-14 and you predicted OU to win 31-21, your tie-breaker number would be 3 (actual difference 13 minus projected difference 10 = 3).

3. If there is still a tie, we will than see which combined score is closest to the actual combined score ……. in other words the total.

That’s it for this week. Also, please feel free to leave any comments or suggestions on how we can improve the concept.

Thanks

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18 Responses to “TSE Week 9 Guest Handicapper Challenge”

  1. Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

    Guys, I am still working on getting up a weekly running total of each weeks winner(s) so we can keep tabs on how they do each week. I hope to have something up by the end of the week (before Saturday).

  2. Trentmoney says:

    1. You went to school at the University of Minnesota
    2. Clemson defense is #109 in ypc, 103 in ypa and 107 in ypp…there are two sides to every coin
    3. Little Rock is not a truly neutral field…Ark plays there every year and has already played a game there this season, not to mention the ticket allotment…not saying i don’t like your pick, but to call it a neutral field is incorrect

    good luck this week

    • Riley says:

      Trentmoney, I agree with you that Clemson’s Def has been bad. The point I was making is that I don’t think Wake’s offense is good enough to keep up with Clemson’s. In Clemson’s last three games, Clemson won by 14, 16, & 21 against three offenses better than Wake’s. I am worried a little that it’s at Wake and about a potential backdoor.

      My bad on the neutral field. I was looking at travel time for both teams. Still think Ole Miss is the better team in this game.

      Good luck with you plays too.

  3. Winston says:

    Saturday, October 27th

    New Mexico +14

    Fresno State has been blowing teams out as of late and that is the reason for this inflated line. New Mexico on the other hand has covered 4 straight and new head coach Bob Davie has done an excellent job during his rebirth after being in the booth at ESPN.32-27 Fresno State (Tie-breaker)

    Toledo -7

    Buffalo is a lousy team with a challenged QB, Toledo will score at least 4o in this game and win going away.42-17 Toledo

    Colorado +45 1/2

    Oregon will be up by at least 35 at half time and use their backups for the entire 2nd half as they get ready for USC next week. The last three times they have done this the visiting team has covered via the backdoor.

    Oregon State -4

    Washington is good home dog but this is just not enough points I believe.

    Miss ST + 24 1/2

    For the same reasons as the Oregon game I think Bama is looking ahead to LSU next week even though Miss St has not lost yet. Alabama 37-21

  4. Tim says:

    Syracuse +3.5

    The Orange have had 2 extra days to prepare for a team they always play very tight. Very overvalued USF team, also a very unpredictable team. Cuse found their running game last week and looked pretty good on D.

    Georgia +7

    My situational spot of the week. Florida D is good, but Aaron Murray is ready to repeat last year’s performance. I think UGA’s close game with UK and UF blowing out SC puts the bulldogs in good position. Before the year started, UGA was favored by 4.5 in this game…I think this is the week where UF’s offense catches up with them.

    Kansas State -7

    KSU has a MUCH better D and should handle Tech easy. KSU has proved they win the big game and handle the hype. Hard for this game to be a let down when you had won your last game in the first quarter.

    Oregon State -4

    Although UW is a good home team, since their win vs Stanford, they have been extremely flat in the L3. I see UW’s o-line getting mauled by OSU front line. 28-17 Beavers

    Toledo -7.5

    I hope I’m not missing anything here. Toledo is the much better team: better d and better run game.

  5. terry says:

    Temple – Pitt U 48.5

    Two teams that run the ball and play pretty good defense.

    Indiana +2

    Illinois is the worst team in the Big 10.

    Minnesota +3

    Purdue is not a god team and should not be favored on the road in the Big 10.

    Colorado +45.5

    Oregon will put 50+ up by halftime and then coast in the second half looking ahead to USC. Oregon 52-13

    Notre Dame +11

    This is too many points for a defense as good as Notre Dame’s to be getting. Oklahoma’s wins a close defensive game.

  6. kiel says:

    Air Force +3.5
    Navy +3.5
    WMU +8.5
    Minnesota +2.5
    Mississippi State +24 ……… Alabama 31-10

  7. SilkyDiamonds says:

    Ore St -3
    Rice -2.5
    Ole Miss +6
    NW -5
    Indiana +2

    Indian 34- Illinois 27 (tie breaker)

  8. Seth says:

    My Blazing Five™ are as follows:

    1. Indiana +2 at Illinois- I think the wrong team is favored here. Illinois is easily the worst team in the B1G and would be an average team in the MAC this year. I think Indiana wins straight up.

    2. Ohio State -1 at Penn State- I just don’t see Ohio State losing this. Ohio State has proven they can go into a hostile environment and win. Miller is cleared to play and is participating fully in practice. Even with Guiton, I’d take OSU. My only concern is that Penn State’s defense has been playing much better than OSU’s, but I have a feeling OSU plays up or down to their opponent. I expect Meyer to have the buckeyes prepared. Besides, if the Purdue game tells me anything it is that the Luckeyes always find a way to pull it out.

    3. South Carolina -13.5 vs. Tennessee- Oh Rocky Top, you have passionate fans and a catchy song, but your coach is awful and needs to go. How he got the Tennessee job with a sub .500 record at a WAC school is beyond me (I realize they were desperate but still). I think a healthier South Carolina is looking for someone to beat up on and Tennessee is ripe for the picking. Tennessee’s offense will be contained by a stout USCe defense

    4. Georgia Tech -2.5 vs. BYU- I think BYU is the better team here but it is tough to travel to South Bend and then to Atlanta to face the triple option.

    5. Michigan State +6 at Wisconsin- This will be a defensive battle. Wisconsin will prevail 17-14.

  9. Tribetimenow says:

    No time for write-ups this week:

    Mississippi State +24
    Georgia +7
    Texas Tech +7 (Tiebreaker KSU 30 TTech 27)
    Michigan State/Wisconsin Under 40.5
    Louisiana Tech Team Total Over 54.5

  10. MoMoney says:

    Ball St (-4)
    Northwestern (-6)
    Ole Miss (+6)
    N. Illinois (-7) (Tie breaker N. Illinois 34 W. Michigan 24)
    Indiana (+2)

    • Riley says:

      Man, you keep bringing the fire. Nice picks again this week. I was a Denard injury away from matching you(maybe). I’m starting to feel like there’s a rivalry taking off. Better watch out, I’m gonna match your 5-0 next week to take back the throne!

      • MoMoney says:

        Riley,
        I am just hoping that this run continues. I realize that this pace can not be maintained forever…….but it sure is nice right now!

        Have you participated all 3 weeks? If so, what were your week 1 numbers? 4-1, 4-1, and 5-0 here, 13-2 (86.6%) on my end. As far as a rivalry goes, as long as we are all making money that is good enough for me. I really enjoy all of the great info and conversations that people share in here, really helpful. BOL next week, and may everyone win MoMoney!

  11. Allan says:

    Auburn +14 1/2

    Auburn is fighting for survival and A & M just played a physically draining game against LSU. Home Dog

    Arizona + 7

    USC and Arizona will both score over 40 points in this shootout and again I like the home dog with the spread.

    North Carolina -7 1/2

    Like the heels in this game after debacle last week against Duke

    Illinois -2

    Indiana is everyone’s fav this week, historically that is when I run from the hoosiers

    Boston College -3

    Not all trappers wear fur caps! This game has sucker play written all over it.

  12. Allan says:

    Tiebreaker……. Arizona 48-45 over USC

  13. Snow says:

    La Tech Team Total Over 54.5
    I’ve been playing this every week, despite it continuing to go higher. Sticking with it again. This number is still below their average of 56 ppg, against an NMSU team ranked 103rd in points allowed. Tech could put up 50 in the first half again this week if they can force a turnover or two. Sidenote: I really don’t see how someone isn’t going to throw a pile of money at Dykes at the end of this season.

    Kentucky +14
    For the same reason that the under seems to be a popular pick. It’s going to be difficult for Mizzou to cover 2 TDs in what should be a low scoring game. Kentucky has been rather inconsistent this year. Taking it to SC first half, getting completely dominated by Arkansas, back to hanging with Georgia last week. I’m really at a loss as to why this line is as high as it is, and opened higher. Mizzou has a better defense, but not 14 points better. If Whitlow can manage to stay in the game this week UK could keep this one real close.

    NC State +7.5
    Defense wins football games. North Carolina isn’t quite in the upper echelon of offensive teams, but at 39 ppg they can score. But if you remove the Elon and Idaho games where they scored 62 and 66 points, we’re looking at a more comparable 30 ppg. With both defenses being nearly identical stat-wise, at just over a touchdown I’ll take the points.

    Western Kentucky -6.5
    WKU is a better team in just about every stat, with a vastly superior defense. While FIU does a little more through the air, WKU has a much more balanced offensive attack, and can grind out yards on the ground – as evidenced by their 9th ranking in 3rd down %. WKU is going to come out fired up after that heart breaker in OT last week.
    41-24

    Ole Miss +6
    Nothing to say here Sabert hasn’t covered already.

  14. Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

    MOMONEY 5-0 …. SWEET!

    Riley 4-1 again. SilkyDiamonds also 4-1

    Great job guys. It was a fantastic week(end) on the site all around.

    Thanks and let’s do it all over again next week.

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