Last week we held our second Saturday Edge Guest Handicapper Challenge and we again ended up with three readers going 4-1, including one of the previous weeks co-winners, MoMoney. Fortunately this time I explained the tie-breaker scenario a little better and we came away with a clear-cut winner.
Last weeks Guest Handicapper Challenge winner was Riley. Riley went 4-1 last week and he edged out our previous winner MoMoney by 3 points in the tie-breaker.
Riley’s Picks for Week # 9
Hello everyone from your Week 8 Guest Handicapper Champion! First, I want to thank all The Saturday Edge guys. I’ve been following the site since week one, and I really like what you are doing!
This is my first season seriously betting on college football and it’s been a great ride. Long gone are the Saturdays of brunches, going to a specific teams bar to watch ONE game at a time, or speaking with friends that don’t have money on the game. Replacing them are 11:00 am wake up calls to take a final look at the week’s card, 2 TVs alternating between 4+ games at a time, a computer w/ tabs open to Sportsbook, 5dimes, ESPN & Twitter, and an ever-warm grill in the “backyard”.
Oh, and the phone loaded to BetBud which is the one advice I will give all bettors: pay the $3 to get BetBud on your iPhone. You enter you picks, it tracks the progress of your bets, your season stats, and even lets you send your picks to a friend. 2nd best app I have behind Spotify. Like I said, it’s been a great season. Here are my picks for week 9:
Game of the Week: Notre Dame +10.5 OK wins 20-13
Ugh, I can’t believe I am starting with this one… but I like Notre Dame this week. They are my third least favorite team behind the Badgers and the Hawkeyes (guess where I went to school), but I can’t help it this week. Notre Dame defense has just been so good (6th in total D & 2nd in scoring D). Fun stat: Notre Dame’s D is giving up an average of 9.43 pts/game, a full point less than the points they are getting from OU! Now, I’m not saying that they hold OU under 10 pts, but I think OU’s offense is getting more credit than they should. Last three weeks, they’ve put 40+ up against TTech, Texas, & Kansas, not exactly top rate defenses. However, in their one game against a solid defense (Kansas St) they only scored 19 points and only scored 2 TDs on 5 red zone possessions. Notre Dame has been excellent on defense in the Red Zone (53% total & only 4 TDs in 19 drives). If Notre Dame is able to control OU’s offense and make them settle for FGs instead of TDs, I think ND’s pedestrian O can get them enough points (10-14 should be good), to let their defense keep them close to the end.
Michigan has been a little bipolar so far this season but there is a pretty clear difference between their good games and bad: their ability to run the ball. In their 3 bad offensive games (the 2 L’s and MSU) they averaged 131 rushing yards. In their 4 good offensive game, they averaged 291. Nebraska’s run D is ranked 90th in the country and gave up 371 rushing yards to OSU. Braxton Miller ran 186 yards alone and I think Robinson could have similar stats. Michigan should win outright. I wouldn’t be surprised if Michigan blows them out. Extra credit: Michigan’s D is top 20 in yards and scoring. Michigan wins 31-27
Ole Miss +6
Arkansas is back! Really? After beating Auburn & Kentucky? I’ll believe it when I see it. Meanwhile, Ole Miss is still getting the Rodney Dangerfield treatment. They’ve played well almost every game this year (other than vs. Texas). They need two wins to be bowl eligible and w/ 3 of 5 games left against top 15 teams, they know they have to win this one. This is another one where I think the dog wins outright. Food for Thought: while this game is being played in Arkansas, it’s in Little Rock, not Fayetteville. Little Rock is basically equidistant from Fayetteville & Oxford. On a truly neutral field, w/o reputation, is Arkansas really 6 pts better than the Rebs this season? Ole Miss wins 35-31
I tried to talk myself out of this one, but couldn’t. It appears Boyd is at least probable to play. Despite having a 4-3 record, Wake Forest is bad. They are 117th in Completion % & 95th in yards/carry. I don’t see how they score enough to keep up with Clemson. The other side of the ball isn’t much better. They let Florida St & Army exceed their average yards/game by 80 & 50 respectively. If they let Clemson get to 500 yards (492.8 avg), this game won’t be close. Clemson wins 38-17
I’ll be quick here. Here’s another team still getting no respect. They are well coached & good at protecting the ball. Iowa, on the other hand, has been anemic on offense. Northwestern should be able to limit their run game and move the ball well enough to put up points. I went back & forth on whether to play NW or the under; stuck with NW here but will probably play both. NW should win by 7-14 points. NW wins 23-13
That’s it for me. Tweet me if you want to discuss my picks @ettin009. Good luck!
Here is a quick synopsis of the challenge. Each week, as many college football handicappers that want to can submit 5 games ATS in the comments section below. On Sunday morning I’ll figure out which handicapper had the best record, and the following week that handicapper will be the featured guest handicapper on The Saturday Edge.
He (or she?) can submit 5 selections with detailed analysis the following week. They can submit their bio, picture(s), website address, twitter address, email address, anything that is appropriate.
Anyone can enter. Just place your 5 Best Picks ATS in the comments section below.
2. There cannot be any duplicate cards. So if someone has already selected the 5 games in which you were going to play, you must change at least one of your sides/totals.
3. Please use current spreads and totals.
4. Please do not buy points. If the current spread is +2.5, do not use +3 (-120), etc.
1. Please submit ONE FINAL SCORE for any game of your choice among your 5 picks. Obviously if this game loses, then you automatically lose your chance to be involved in the tie-breaker. So choose wisely which game you will use for your final score.
2. I will then take the actual final score difference of the game you selected, minus your projected final score difference to determine your tie-breaker number. So if OU beats Notre Dame this week 27-14 and you predicted OU to win 31-21, your tie-breaker number would be 3 (actual difference 13 minus projected difference 10 = 3).
3. If there is still a tie, we will than see which combined score is closest to the actual combined score ……. in other words the total.
That’s it for this week. Also, please feel free to leave any comments or suggestions on how we can improve the concept.