cat-right

SabertStxVii Week 9 College Football Picks

SabertStxVii Week 9 College Football Picks

 

Have been on a really good run in 2012 and hopefully everyone has enjoyed it. As I’ve mentioned before, as the season progresses, so does how you handicap games. You can’t disregard stats or motivation. Below are my Week 9 College Football Picks. If you don’t see a game you’re interested in, please leave a comment and I will give you my thoughts. I have done my best to address everyone’s comments and questions. I also respond quickly on twitter.

Just a fair warning to everyone, I will be on vacation in the middle of the Caribbean until Sunday Nov 4th, so next weeks plays may or may not be lighter. But this weeks are as usual.

Week 1: 5-3 +4.5u , Week 2: 6-2 +10 u, Week 3: 3-3, -.5u, Week 4: 5-2, +6.5u

Week 5: 4-2, +5.5u, Week 6: 7-2, +9u, Week 7: 5-2, +4.5u, Week 8:  6-3, +6* units

Overall: 41-19 + 45.5* Units

68.3%


4* Units, Ole Miss +6 vs Arky

2* Units, Clemson -12 vs Wake Forest

2* Units, Vandy -32 vs UMass

2.5* Units, Northern Illinois -7

1.5* Units, Pitt -6.5 vs Temple

1* Unit, Syracuse +2.5 vs USF

1* Unit, Indiana +2 vs Illinois


 2* Units, Clemson -12 vs Wake Forest

Will not be going as in depth on this one due to the fact that my man JimmyShivers has a really good write-up on this game too. With this being one of the mid-week games, it was one of the first games I put in my system. I was blown away by the stats here. I just don’t get this one at all.

The only thing that seems to be in Wake Forest favor is the fact that they are home. Literally, out of every stat that is correlated with scoring points and winning, Wake Forest is only better in one, and that is sacks (which is toward the low end of the spectrum). Not only is Clemson better, they rank very highly amongst the NCAA in alot of them.

Clemson is better on first downs offense and defense, better on third downs offense and defense, better in the red zone, etc. They have an advantage on every single position I can find. Clemson has also played a harder schedule. So the question is, does Clemson show up?

I think they do. First of all, its a mid-week game on national TV. If  playing on ESPN doesn’t get 18-22 year old guys excited, then I don’t know what does. They are coming off a short week, and this Clemson offense that has been playing together and clicking should be able to roll here, and easily cover less than 2 TDs, even on the road.

Final Score

Clemson 41, Wake 17

  


4* Units, Ole Miss +6 vs Arky

This should come as a surprise to no one, but I am just puzzled. Ole Miss is not a bad team by any stretch of the imagination. They have beat every team they are supposed to beat and have won the game against a strong A&M team. On top of that, their offense has put up the most points on Bama than anyone and their defense has stepped up. Chizik threw the kitchen sink at Ole Miss and couldn’t walk away with the W. I don’t know if the rest of the public or the books are still living off last years team, but it is a world of difference.

There is exactly one reason why I can see Arky being favored here: Tyler Wilson vs. Ole Miss Secondary.  TW is a very good QB on a not so very good team. Everyone assumes because Ole Miss secondary got torched early in the year (when starters were out) that they are not up to snuff. Tyler Wilson will struggle here, and here is why.

Even in the past two games Arky has played against the SEC doormats, they really haven’t gotten much going on the ground. This allows Ole Miss to be more aggressive on the defensive front. They can play over the top and shadow Cobi, the one huge threat. On top of that, Ole Miss is 33rd in INT, 8th in TFL, 21st in sacks, and 21st in turnovers caused.

I do think TW gets it going a bit, but Arky is terrible in the RedZone, terrible on 3rd down, only completing 55% of passes and can’t run. If Ole Miss can score, which I believe they will, I think they walk away with a win here at Arky. Arky’s D is not good. Look at the last team that Arky played that runs a similar offense to Ole Miss…it was A&M and Arky got smacked.

One thing sinks Ole Miss here, and thats Bo turning it over. Did I mention according to my ranking system, Hugh Freeze is twice as good of a coach as JL? Freeze has let one win get away, I don’t see him letting 2. My numbers have Ole Miss by about 10 here, and I adjust that down to around 7 for playing on the road (game technically isn’t at Arky, on a neutral field).  I keep saying this, but maybe after this one, Ole Miss gets some love.

Final Score

Ole Miss 31, Arky 24


2* Units, Vandy -32 vs UMass

Really?

UMass is in the running for one of the worst teams in the country. They have played a tough set of games, but they are just brutal. Now they travel from Mass to Tennessee to take on a middle of the pack SEC team that is hungry now to get to .500 and the possibility of a bowl in sight with games against UK, Tenn, Ole Miss and Wake following.

Vandy played a pretty brutal schedule to start the year and I think that’s part of the reason why we haven’t really seen their offense click and why they are underrated. They played SC, UGA, Mizzou, Florida, Auburn and a solid Northwestern team. I think Vandy gets it going here for the sheer reason of getting to beat down on someone.

UMass this season has averaged losing by 28 points, and I think Vandy is better than all of their opponents besides Michigan (and that’s even arguable) who beat them by 50. If Vandy remotely shows up, they kill UMass.

Finally, UMass even has players tweeting IN THE MIDDLE OF GAMES. This is from last week:

“IM OUT HERE BALLIN’…2nd half bouta qet started time too qet mo’ money !!!”

Cmon bro (he actually played well atleast).

Final Score

Vandy 52, Mass 10


1.5* Units, Pitt -6.5 vs Temple

Pitt is not the same team we saw at the beginning of the season. They had a new coach, with a new system, and I think they are finally starting to figure it out. They are coming off of a tough trip picking up the W at Buffalo while Temple is off of a brutal 2nd half performance and choke job against foe Rutgers. They have to now travel to Pitt, who typically has a good homefield advantage.

Pitt is led by 40 year old QB Tino Sunseri. As Tino goes, Pitt goes. Tino is blessed to have Ray G and stud frosh Russell Shell in the backfield. Pitt has had some tough losses, but I think this is a good bounce back game for them. They have a very good statistical advantage over Temple and I think they have the skill players as well. Temple has been trying other QB options in practice, obviously, because of how bad their offense is.

Temple is a run first offense. They are the worst team in the NCAA at obtaining first downs. That stems from the fact that they are almost the worst in picking up third downs. If they aren’t picking up 6+ yards on their first down, they are at an 8% chance of picking up a first down. Thats LESS THAN ONE IN TEN TRIES.  Once Temple gets in the Redzone, they do a good job of scoring, but they don’t get there often.

Pitt has an advantage in all of the top 5 stats that correlate with winning and scoring, by a huge margin. If Tino limits turnovers, I could see them grinding out this win here at home and covering the spread.

Final Score

Pitt 34, Temple 17

 


2.5* Units, Northern Illinois -7

I suggest reading @OpeningLine’s write up on this game. He does a great job and presents a unique and knowledgable angle. I highly suggest you check out his weekly post.

This Northern Illinois team is good. They lost some studs off of last years team, including stud QB Chandler Harnish, but it seems as though they have reloaded just fine. They are sitting at 7-1 atop the MAC with their only loss coming from Iowa in a 1 pt game. They are facing Western Michigan, in a game that they cannot give away.

N Illinois is a run first team. They run the read option and run with a multi back set. It is a very tough offense to defend as they are very efficient. They pick up 5.5 yards a clip vs anyone they face, they get in short 3rd down positions, and they convert them. They score well in the Red-Zone, and their defense makes enough stops to keep them in all of their games. Their offense tires other defenses out and they just keep putting on the smack.

Western Michigan on the other hand is a pass first offense. They attempt to move the chains by throwing the ball, although they run the ball decently too. Ultimately why I chose to play N Illy is for a few reasons.

First, I have N Illy being an unadjusted 11 point favorite. I think they win this game by more than 2 scores and here is why:

Northern Illy scores on 80% of their RZ trips and WM allows scores on 86%. NIlly should score on 70% of trips atleast in this game. WM on the other hand, scores on 71% of trips and NI allows scores on only 59%. WM should score on 41%. Northern Illinois will have more trips to the RedZone here I beleive because their offense is just too efficient.

I have seen each team play, and I like Northern Illinois here. Finally, Western Michigan averages 2.75 turnovers a game, ranking them nearly dead last in the NCAA. Northern Illinois causes turnovers on D and gets to the QB and in the backfield fairly well.

Going with the better team with a better coach, with a tough offense to stop, playing for the drivers seat to their conference.

Final Score

Northern Illinois 41, Western Mich 24


1* Unit, Syracuse +2.5 vs USF

Once again, I think the wrong team is favored. This line suggest that on a neutral field, these teams are dead even. I understand that from a personel, but have a hard time believing it. Both Nassib and BJ Daniels are total jokes, but Nassib has a clear edge. He is completing 65% of his passes and BJ is completing 55%.

Syracuse is coming off of a weekday game so they have extra time to prepare here as well. They are sitting at 2-1 in the big east with some big games remaining and a chance to move up the rankings a bit. They know this is a must win conference game. USF doesn’t have as much of a home field advantage sitting at 2-5. Yes, Cuse has to travel far, but I don’t put much take into that. Same time-zone here.

Cuse is a good example of beating the teams they probably should and losing to teams that they also should lose too. I think they win this game. USF is badddd. I don’t see them being able to do too much here. BJ Daniels is such a hack and if the game is on his shoulders, Syracuse is in good shape. Cuse is solid on 1st and 3rd D, they just need to control the game and not take stupid penalties/turn it over.

Final Score

Cuse 34, USF 24


1* Unit, Indiana +2 vs Illinois

Another very weird spot. Illinois this year was supposed to be decent, but they have been anything but that. Indiana, although their record doesn’t show it, has been a decent team this year. They have played every team that is better than them close this year, and I think that they win this one in a close battle.

Reason’s why i think Illinois is favored: They have talent and should have performed better this season, and they are coming off the bye while Indiana is coming off of a tough road trip at Navy.

Indiana can get it done though. They throw the ball well and accurately, they also can run it too. When they get to the Red Zone, they score, and they also aren’t too shabby on 3rd Down either. If Indiana limits turnovers here, which I think they do because they are the 2nd least penalized team in the country, they should win this game.

Illinois is pretty atrocious in alot of important categories. They rank 104, 100, 102, 104, and 29 in the Top 5 stats I always talk about. I have their coaching effect being almost twice as bad as Indiana’s , and that is saying alot.

I just cannot see how this Illinois teams get it done, unless they perform and significantly exceed what they’ve done all season. Illinois has laid down against better opponents, and Indiana continues to fight. They should win this one straight up.

Final Score

IU 33, UI 27

 


For analysis, commentary, plays and randomness, follow @mtsabert on twitter.

Be Sociable, Share!

43 Responses to “SabertStxVii Week 9 College Football Picks”

  1. Tribetimenow says:

    Looks like a solid start to the week, Sabert. I have Vandy as a lean right now (line up to -33), as the only thing that scares me is they only average 20 points per game. Granted, they have played some of the best defenses in the country, so they should be due against an outmanned UMass squad. Plus UMass should not be able to take advantage of Vandy’s pass D. Best of luck this week!

    24 too much to cover for the Crimson Tide?

    • SabertStxVii SabertStxVii says:

      Tribe – I just couldn’t not bet it. This is arguably the best team Mass has faced, their on the road, against a great D and an offense that should be able to score here. The reason they average so little is because they play awesome D’s or been in really tough spots on the road.

      I am really thinking 24 is too much for them, but I’m not sold on Miss St as they’ve played like no one. Saban punished me for doubting him last week, but I need to look more into this one.

  2. Trentmoney says:

    gonna first-guess you guys on this game…

    I’m not seeing clemson at all…overall defensive numbers are horrible, and consistently bad as well…one of the 3 worst in all
    BCS conferences, along with Texas and Miami…

    short week never a good spot for the road team, and the fact that they played on saturday makes it even tougher (lots of teams have the sat off before thurs nite games)

    And there’s absolutely no line value with clemson…Tigers were -7 at BC (actually closed 6.5)…is Wake better than BC..?? Of course!! Then why would you lay 5 more pts, or basically a TD more, at Wake..?? you’re in no-man’s land at -12…you basically have to win by 2 TDs…that’s double the spread vs BC

    I’m limiting my plays this year and mostly playing totals so I don’t have any action tomorrow nite so i’ll root for you guys but I just don’t see the edge…is Clemson better than Wake? of course…does that mean they roll out of bed and win by 2 TDs…?? I think that’s a tough position to be in

    good luck

    • Seth says:

      “is Wake better than BC..?? Of course!!”

      I wouldn’t say of course. They are only marginally better. Both teams are pretty dismal.

      • Trentmoney says:

        no way…BC has one win and that was vs Maine…wake is 4-3…they just won a conference road game while playing without their top wr…they have a good chance to go bowling…BC has a good chance to go 1-11…and even if they are only “marginally better” why in the world would you lay 5 more pts against a better team…?? still is a bad line with no value if you take clemson, which was my point…what’s your’s..? that they are “marginally better” and not “definitely better”…really??

        • Seth says:

          Yeah, that was my point. It isn’t axiomatic that Wake is better. Anyway, this argument will be settled next weekend when they play each other.

    • OpeningLine OpeningLine says:

      If I remember correctly, that Clemson-BC line was artifically low due to several situations. Nobody knew how bad BC was yet, they played close games against Northwestern and Miami at that point in timme. BC was coming off a bye, playing at home, and Clemson had several skill position players out because of injury/illness. Not to mention, Clemson’s D was torn up at FSU the previous week. However, Clemson pulled away and covered that game, just like they did in their last two games vs GaTech and VaTech. It is always a risk when you take Clemson, as sometimes they like to sleepwalk against mediocre competition, but they’ve covered as a favorite against every FBS school thus far, except when they got backdoored by Ball State on a 4 TD spread.

    • SabertStxVii SabertStxVii says:

      I get what you are saying here Trent, and that is part of the reason why it is a 2 unit play and not bigger. Thats stats are SO in favor of Clemson I couldn’t envision not playing it. According to team rankings, Clemson has also played a tougher schedule.

      I get why you are arguing the BC game, but as OpeningLine commented, that line was deflated by lots of reasons, and Clemson still went in and won by 14 points. I know betting Clemson is tough to do because they sleepwalk through a lot of games, but I have reason to think they won’t do that here.

      First, the ACC is wide open. With FSU going down, they need all of these wins. They still have a shot, so they will be motivated to not lay down for that reason. Secondly, its on national TV. Players get pumped for that, students get pumped for that, it should be exciting.

      Finally, I think this is a different Clemson team than we are use too and thats why I took them. They have the #1 RedZone offense. The 15th ranked Red Zone defense, The 10th best 3rd Down O, and the 27th best 3rd down D. In the top 5 stats that have correlated with winning and scoring over the past 5 years, Clemsons ranks sum to 131; Wake is 519.

      Now, with that being said. Historically, Clemson blows Thursday night games, but thats mostly been under Bowden, and Wake crushes them. I think on short rest, this Clemson O that is absolutely cruising right now against everyone (including what we thought was that AWESOME FSU D), they will get it done. They are more polished and shouldn’t have as much trouble as Price here.

  3. MoMoney says:

    Sabert
    What do you think about the NW line? Neither team is very good on O, Iowa is decent on D, but I can’t seem to get away from NW. All my numbers are showing NW to win by around 4, but I feel like they should be able to cover easily in this one. Thoughts?

    • SabertStxVii SabertStxVii says:

      MM,

      If you look in the guest handicapper thread, Riley has a very good analysis of this game and I tend to agree with him. I haven’t looked at this game to play or not, but I just threw it in my system just to see what pops up. My numbers have NW favored by about 4, but thats on an unadjusted basis. When I adjust, which I did quickly and obviously didn’t think about motivation, injuries, etc. I have NW winning this one by 10.

      NW is way better coached. They are VERY good in the Redzone. They don’t turn the ball over, and they just make it happen. Iowa at the same time is one dimensional. They pound the ball. Northwestern is a tough place to play, and if Iowa can’t figure out how to throw and pick up 3rd downs (which they are VERY bad at) then this is going to be a long day.

      I’m with you on NW covering. Homedog, more to play for, better team, better coach.

  4. Bobbyjones2 says:

    Congrats on a great season, impressive record.

    I love Oklahoma to beat up the irish. Very good defense by ND, very, very average offense. I think its much easier to play defense when facing a team incapable of passing, which is all ND has faced this year. Not one quality qb. Eight man in the box, single coverage, pin your ears back and go. Oklahoma, playing excellent right now. I see 35-14.

    Also, betting against Alabama, not a great idea, but Miss State boasts good secondary, quality qb and leading rusher in the Sec.

    24 seems excessive to me. Bama can t win every game by 100, the line makers seem to have inflated this no. imo.

    Would love your feedback.
    Mahalo.

    • SabertStxVii SabertStxVii says:

      Bobby — first off, thanks a lot. It has been a good run and looking to keep it going. Have to stay discipline as I know a tough week could be around the corner at some point.

      I love Okla too honestly. I may end up laying off of it for the sheer fact that I don’t know if Okla’s O is forreal, juts as much as I don’t know if ND D is forreal. Neither team has faced a good D or O yet this season, respectively. Totally agree with your granular view of ND. They load the box, they have possibly the best front 7 in the nation and just attack. BYU started to beat them with their receivers. Okla should have taken note.

      Def with you on Bama man. I thought last week was their week. The books have to start inflating this spread to get action on the other side. Miss St. is good, don’t get me wrong, but they are getting A LOT of love here for beating up on 7 bad or average teams.

      Bama is such a well oiled machine. Their OL is unreal and by the 3rd/4th Q, Bama rushes and picks up 6yd a clip and the have probably 2 of the top 15 backs on their team in the NCAA. McCarron passes well enough to manage the game, and he has hours to do it. The Defense gives the offense short fields and time to get a good lead. Is Miss St defense good? Yes absolutely. They had alot of returning players and have proven to be good this year. Can they slow Bama? ehhh, we’ll see. my biggest fear is Miss st. not being able to keep drives sustained. Lets not forget St. stuggled against a UK team for a bit a few weeks ago.

      I lean St. here I think, but have to evaluate more for sure.

  5. MoMoney says:

    Sabert,
    In your write up on the Indiana game you list the rankings for Illinois in the “top 5 stats that you always talk about” if you don’t mind, what are those stats? New to the site in the past few weeks and don’t remember seeing you talk about what those stats are.

    Thanks

    • SabertStxVii SabertStxVii says:

      Sorry Mo no worries, I run a correlation using 5 years of historical data. I use the past 5 years because I feel like any more than that, there is too much player change, coach change, and game change even that the data becomes obsolete. What I do is run a correlation for pretty much every single stat you can find, and see how much it relates to scoring and winning. Obviously scoring and winning are very strongly correlated as well.

      The Top 5 stats that I have found to be correlated with these things are:

      Yards / Pass Attempt
      3rd Down Conversions
      Yards / Carry
      Total Pass Yards
      Completion %

      These are stats that help affirm a play. I do not decide a play by them, but it can effect unit value on certain plays.

      Let me know if you have any other questions. Sorry if this is too analytical.

      • MoMoney says:

        Thanks for the info. I am curious as to why you look into yds/carry but not total rushing like you do total passing yds. I would think yds/carry could be a bit misleading, especially if a team doesn’t run the ball very many times to get that average. You seem to value passing way more heavily than rushing, is there a reason for this?

        Thanks so much for all of the info you provide. This is my first season capping and I am trying to put my own system together to use from all of the great advice from you veterans.

        • SabertStxVii SabertStxVii says:

          No problem. So when you think about this, this is not “me”, it is the numbers. That is why I said it will never change a play, but it can influence the size of my units. Those are the Top 5 stats in order that correlate with winning and scoring over the past 5 years from my digging.

          With regards to passing vs rushing, I think we’ve seen that change within the college game over the past 5 years. Teams that are winning, are prolific in passing (Oregon), or have an unreal defense and efficient offense (Bama). Keep in mind, this is broad, it encompasses 124 teams.

          Yards per pass attempt is obvious I think because it highlights not the teams that throw the most, but the teams that throw the most efficiently. When they do throw, they are getting a big chunk of yards. 3rd downs are HUGE, so that makes sense. If you can keep drives going, especially in college, its money. Yards / Carry is 3rd, which also makes sense. This is also a very good judgement of offensive line. If you are getting around 3 yards per carry, your offensive line and RB are just average. If you get up in the 5 and 6’s or higher, your line is great, meaning you probably have good protection for your QB as well.

          Like I said, this is just an addition to my system. My main system has everything based off of yards. How many yards per TD/1D/FG/INT/Fumble/etc. on both sides of the ball, and it them compares team A to team B.

          Best of luck and let me know if you have any questions.

  6. Lonnie says:

    I thought the Northern Illinois line would have been higher. When I saw the -7, it stood out. I thought they should have been 13 or 14 point favs. Is this just because of being on the road?

    Thanks. Good luck this week.

    • SabertStxVii SabertStxVii says:

      I think it has to do with being on the road and WMU being able to throw the ball decently. I think the book may assume this to be a lay down spot for NI where they win, but not convincingly coming off of their 2nd road game in a row. I just don’t see WMU stopping Northern Illy, and I agree thought it should be atleast double digits.

  7. marv martin says:

    First – Let me congratulate you on a great job this year. I discovered you a few weeks ago and have since made no bets before visiting your thread.

    I like all of your selections this week but one. (I was leaning Temple because I have a bias against Pitt but you may have converted me )

    But re-read your Syracuse – So Florida post. That is the only game where you do not have convincing data to support your pick. At least, that is what I think.

    Tanks for all the time and effort you put in and I hope your bookie is suffering from all the success you are enjoying.

    • SabertStxVii SabertStxVii says:

      Thank you marv. Glad you have enjoyed.

      The stats are just really in Pitts favor for the Temple game, and they are just SO bad on offense. Pitt can just stack the box and really force Temple to throw, which they are brutal.

      The stats are also very in favor of Syrcuse, I just didn’t get int them as much. It is more of a situational play for me, and a fade of BJ Daniels. I have Cuse being a 7pt favorite in this game, not a 3 pt dog.

  8. Seth says:

    Looks like Boyd ate his wheaties.

    • SabertStxVii SabertStxVii says:

      I tweeted right before the game: “I expect Watkins to have a breakout game, he’s had a rough year.” Well, the whole offense had a breakout game. Impressed? Yes. Surprised? No.

  9. alkimyst says:

    I’m done betting on or against Bama until later in the year. I thought they were laying too many against Tenn last week, and got burned. On the other hand, I took the points earlier this year with Ole Miss9+31) and the game was never really in doubt. You said it best, Bama is a well-oiled machine. I think there are better spots on the board this week than wagering against the best team in the land. My two cents…

    • SabertStxVii SabertStxVii says:

      Definitely agree here. I think on that game, it is Bama or no one for me. My buddy said it best, all youre betting for is them to win by 21, not 24. He hit it dead on. Bama crushes them I think, but by how much? why bother…

  10. Trentmoney says:

    Good hit w/ Clempzin last night…glad you got it

    (that’s how they say it down there…)

  11. Spartan Dawg says:

    What’s your read on the Cincy/Louisville game tonight?

    • SabertStxVii SabertStxVii says:

      I lean Cincy here but I am laying off this game. I cannot bet on either team really. I have NO idea what you are going to get from Louisville. The one really tough game I think they’ve had this year, they got up for it and played really well vs UK. But, UK is also atrocious we are now seeing.

      Louisville has made it a habit to lay down and play to their opponents level and pull out late wins. They won’t be able to do that here, as I think UC will make them pay.

      On same aspect, how good is UC? I don’t think Munchie is terrible, but hes young. He will make some mistakes. I think the line is dead on accurate and it could be a FG game either way, or maybe, Louisville puts the hurt on and blows them out? And I could even see UC scoring alot here. Too many moving parts for me to try and narrow the capping.

      Gun to my head: I play UC and whatever Trent is playing in the newsletter tonight.

  12. TReid says:

    Nice start last night. Love the card and it looks like it should be another nice week for you. I was kind of throwing around the idea of taking Vandy for a unit, but also considering Utah State and La Tech for the same reason. In your opinion, what makes Vandy more solid than the other 2 I mentioned? I’m just not a fan of laying that many points, but all 3 of these should cover without a problem.

    • Snow says:

      I’m on La Tech. I’ve played their team total every week as well (up to 54 this week though…jesus). But I’m also on Vandy too. I haven’t followed USU to have any idea.

      I don’t think Tech has any problem covering. They should put up 60+ again this week. They do a good enough job on defense here against a team with no rushing attack (90 ypg) and 40% 3rd down conversion rate to keep NMSU to under 3 TDs I think.

      30+ sounds high for a Vandy cover admittedly, but I like Sabert’s breakdown. UMASS really is that bad, and Vandy will want to stretch it out a bit here and show out for the home crowd.

      • SabertStxVii SabertStxVii says:

        I like Vandy here because they are playing the worst of the teams compared to Utah St and La TEch. UMass literally should not score on an SEC defense.

        With that being said, I also see some defensive touchdowns here for Vandy, which really helps covering big numbers. La Tech doesn’t have the best defense. I was on La Tech for about 12 straight weeks starting last year and people are finally catching on that this offense and team are legit. I think Vandy is the best defense against one of the worst offensive teams in the nation. I also don’t love playing huge numbers with teams with bad defense.

        Hope this helps. I think all could have some value.

  13. Mike says:

    Any opinion on tenn vs south Carolina? Thanks bro

    • SabertStxVii SabertStxVii says:

      Don’t have much time on this one but I think SC wins and Tenn covers. Tenn has a great offensive line and Tenn shouldn’t struggle as much in this game as they did against Bama. They were getting in alot of 3rd and long situations and I don’t see that to be as much of the case here. They should score around 20, which should be enough to cover this number, as long as SC doesn’t get any defensive scores.

  14. BRADLEY says:

    GREAT WORK SABER.. WAS WONDERING IF U HAD BREADOWN OF YOUR TOP PLAYS 2.5 AND UP/ OPPSOSE TO YOUR 2 UNIT AND LOWER… I COULD GO THRU AND FIGURE IT OUT, I JUST FIGURED YOU MAY HAVE THAT INFO.. THANKS

  15. BRADLEY says:

    DUDE YOU FALT OUT R A STUD AT CFB… I SURE WISH U DID NFL,CBB,NBA…

    • SabertStxVii SabertStxVii says:

      Thanks man. Will get that info for you next week, I have it, I’m just travelling now.

      I dabble in all of the above as well. In the process of developing a system similar to what I have now for CFB for NCAA BBall and may look to stuff in the NBA.

      I used the system for the NFL but when money comes into play, alot of things happen (ie. Desean Jackson not playing last year because he wasn’t getting paid). NFL is very hard because lines are so tight because there are fewer games and every player in the NFL is a pro, so they are all good.

  16. Sejjr says:

    Man you are nails today. What are your thoughts on A&M at Auburn (+14)? Auburn is just a bad team, but 14 at home is a lot. I am leaning with OU as well, but not convinced yet.

    • SabertStxVii SabertStxVii says:

      I think you almost gotta play Auburn or no one at this point. The line opened at 8.5 which I got it at last Sunday, and has been slammed to 2 TDs. For the sheer reason that there isn’t much line value taking aTm here. Auburn is bad, but a night SEC game and 2 TDs is probably too much. I think it could go either way, I’m off it.

      I like OU but think game could end up dead on this number.

  17. Tony says:

    Heckava week, thanks

  18. BRADLEY says:

    Thxs SABER.. I WILL LOOK TO SEE IF U DO DECIDE TO RELEASE P;AYS FOR CBB AND NBA…

Trackbacks/Pingbacks

  1. Betting on College Football - Week 9 Quick Hitters - The Saturday Edge - [...] that nearly knocked off Louisville last week. SaberStxVii has a breakdown and pick of this game here. (Line = USF …
  2. TSE College Football Picks – Week # 9 Summary - [...] SabertStxVii [...]

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>