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Jimmyshivers Week 9 ACC Football Picks

Jimmyshivers Week 9 ACC Football Picks

At this point in the ACC we have seen some separation of the ACC into 3 distinct classes.  Florida St and Clemson are  in the top tier by themselves, their talent level and production have made them the only ACC teams that can realistically claim national relevance.  The next level of UNC, Duke (hi!), NC State, Virginia Tech, Maryland Miami Georgia Tech and Wake Forest are all in a muddle of teams who seem to alternate between awful and amazing every week.    Virginia and Boston College are just bad football teams with no confidence right now.

23-34 -33.67 units YTD

First winning week in a while last week, like several non-ACC plays this week so may wind up with a larger card than usual.  Sticking with the flat betting .

Week 9 ACC Football Picks

*** Clemson Tigers -12.5 -110

*** Boston College Eagles -1 -115

*** Florida St Team Total Over 42 -110

*** North Carolina St – North Carolina Under 55.5 -110

*** Cincinnati Bearcats +3.5 -113

*** Texas Tech Red Raiders +7.5 -108

*** Pittsburgh Panthers -6.5 -105

*** Brigham Young Cougars +2.5 -105

*** 2 Team Teaser (ties win):  Oklahoma -7 / Indiana +8 -105

*** Kent  St Golden Flashes +13.5 -102

*** Colorado St Rams -6.5 (-108)

** Wake Forest / Clemson Over 30 1h -110


 

Write-ups

*** Clemson Tigers -12.5 -110

Going ahead with this one, once it dipped below 13 we aren’t likely to hit any other key numbers.  I feel like the respect for Jimmy Grobe and the national TV Thursday Night Home Dog angle might be keeping this number down (also some lingering uncertainty over Taj Boyd’s shoulder).  Wake Forest is 4-3 and in my mind their lucky to be so; they survived a shoot-out with a brutal Army squad and were more than a little bit lucky to beat UNC (Gio Bernard was out, Renner got ‘concussed’ and first road game for new UNC system).  Wake’s true identity is something closer to what we saw up in Maryland, an undersized defense that plays hard with an anemic offense.  In ACC games only, Wake Forest ranks last in 3rd down conversion percentage and total yards per game.  Clemson’s defense is much maligned, but this Wake team is unlikely to exploit their largest weakness on the defensive front and after that Clemson has better athletes all over the field.  This is the worst offense Clemson has faced since the Furman game.

Defensively Wake actually has decent numbers, but you have to consider that with the fact that they’ve only seen a couple of good offenses at full strength.  FSU did whatever they wanted to, and a one dimensional Army team ran all over them.  Duke threw all over them.  Clemson has a reputation for their prolific offense but what’s appealing to me here is their balance.  The Tigers will look to establish the run here and leverage their size and athletic advantage here which will set up the passing game.  Wake is a well coached team but this is a really tough match-up for their defense in that Clemson plays very fast and rotates a lot of players.   The thinner defenses in this league just cannot keep up with their talent and pace. Wake will be hard pressed to consistently make stops here without forcing turnovers

Honestly it’s not the best spot for Clemson, but I’m not sure it matters here.  This is the worst team Clemson has played in a month and the best team Wake Forest has played in 6 weeks.  It’s scary laying DD on the road here with a sketchy defense, but I just don’t see Wake with the horses to keep up here.  The FSU loss to NC State has reopened the door for Clemson in the ACC and I think they bring a big effort in front of a crowd that will be more than a little bit orange and will want to make a statement in the national spotlight.  My #’s have Clemson winning by 24 here, and if Wake struggles up front here it may not be that close.  Clemson 44, Wake 20

*** Boston College Eagles -1 -115

Just a buy low play on Boston College this week, I feel like it’s a good spot for Frank Spaziani to go out and get what could very well be his only ACC win of the season.  The BC defense has been awful, and a recent run of games against really strong running teams (Army, Clemson, FSU, GT) have left their numbers a bit skewed, but this week they face a Maryland team averaging only 2.25 ypc on the ground who is also implementing a new QB (Perry Hillis — out for the season).  Maryland does have a pretty strong defense and their excellent against the run, but they aren’t playing a team who will try to run the ball at all here.  Maryland has only played 2 passing offenses that rank in the top 50% nationally (WVU-4th, NCSU 29th; BC ranks 32nd overall) and both of them went for over 300 yards in the air (and Maryland also lost both games).  I expect Air Rettig to be able to move the football on this Maryland defense.

I’m betting here that BC hasn’t completely quit on their season which is a bit dangerous with a lame duck coach, but going against a bad Maryland offensive front who can’t really run it and is protecting a rookie 3rd string QB making his first career start on the road is a pretty good spot.  I’ll take my chances with the much better QB going against a D that just hasn’t seen many good passing attacks.  If BC has anything left in the tank, they get it done here.  Eagles 24 – Terps 14.

*** Florida St Team Total Over 42 -110

I’ll update this one when I see a #, but expecting right in the neighborhood of 41.5/42.  I feel like this is a really rough spot for Duke here coming off their biggest win this century (and the clinching of their first bowl bid since ’94) with a senior laden team that may have a hard time preparing for this one.  It’s also a tough match-up for Duke, they have decent run splits but then you look at the #’s and see that they haven’t faced many good running attacks (none in top 30 nationally, FSU is 12th).  Thompson being out is a blow for FSU, but they are really deep @ RB and should have some big running lanes all day.  Duke has only left the state of NC twice, and both times they let sub-par offenses (VT and Stanford) break 40 points.

I think FSU can take away the consistent short passing passing game of Duke and put themselves on a short field consistently here.  Florida State has a bye next week which could mean a big effort here in an attempt to earn a little bit of extra time off before getting ready for VT in two weeks.  Florida State has scored at least 49 points in every home game this season and finds themselves in a good spot to do it again.  FSU 51, Duke 10.

got the week off to a nice 2-0 start, let me add brief thoughts for a few plays posted above.

*** Cincinnati Bearcats +3.5 -113

Just playing on what I feel is the better team with the better running game and defense catching more than a FG in a rivalry game.  Bearcats have won the last 4 in the rivalry and my numbers give them a solid edge in the red zone and on 3rd downs.

*** North Carolina – North Carolina St Under 55.5 -110

Caught a good # here, just expecting two good run defenses to set the tone in a HUGE in-state rivalry game.  In games where State’s defense struggled the secondary really let them down but they should be dialed in here.  In such a big game for both programs I expect this one to be played closely to the vest, and the playcalling may get a little conservative as both teams may tend to rely a little on their special teams and attempt to play the field position game.  I expect UNC has a slight edge with the better running game here, but everything points to this one being played tightly.  7 of last 8 have gone under this number in this series (though several just barely).  24-21 STATE (just couldn’t pick Carolina guys)

*** Texas Tech Red Raiders +7.5 -108

Kansas St is a fantastic story led by a fun QB to watch and one of the best coaches of our era, but I feel like this is a tough spot for them going against what I feel like is an underrated TTU side.  Texas Tech showed what they were all about to me last week, surviving a brutal spot coming off a huge win (at the time) over WVU and surviving a gut-check game at TCU.  Now we’ve got Kansas State off the huge win in Morgantown, and coming home in the week where they finally saw a lot of national spotlight (top 3 BCS, optimius Klein as Hesiman favorite).  To me this spot screams letdown.  I just feel like we’ve got two really good teams here, and I’m getting more than 7 with the better defense against a team in a bit of a tough spot.  My power #’s have these two teams as dead even (and both top 5!) Would not be surprised at all at the outright TT victory here, but at more than a score, it looks like money to me.

*** Pittsburgh Panthers -6.5 -105

Like the spot with a Pittsburgh team that I feel is starting to put the pieces together going against a young Temple side that looks over matched against the better teams in the Big East.  In what  figures to be a fairly low scoring game we’ve got a Pittsburgh team with the better QB, better ground game and is better on both 3rd downs and in the red zone.  Sunseri is quietly having a solid season (68.9% completions, 10-2) and I think it makes a difference against a Temple team thats taking it’s lumps this year.  Pitt 27 Temple 13

*** Brigham Young Cougars +2.5 -105

Willing to overlook the tough travel spot for BYU, I’m not sold that a 20 point win over Boston College in a good spot has fixed all the ills that ail Georgia Tech.  BYU got shredded by the run last week at Notre Dame and as retribution they spent the entire week getting very physical up front and should be dialed in to stop that GT flexbone attack.  Georgia Tech’s defense is still seriously flawed and I expect BYU to have some success moving the football.  It’s a GT offense that  thrives on big plays and BYU is one of the best at taking those away (only 9 30+ yard plays allowed and only 3 40+ yard plays allowed for BYU’s defense in ’12).  I just don’t see GT consistently nickel and diming BYU, and I’ll take a chance that a mediocre BYU offense moves the ball against a bad GT defense.   I’m taking the much better defense here that is really strong against the run going against a very one-dimensional offense.  Wrong Team Favored.  BYU 30 GT 24

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12 Responses to “Jimmyshivers Week 9 ACC Football Picks”

  1. Trentmoney says:

    gonna first-guess you guys on this game…

    I’m not seeing clemson at all…overall defensive numbers are horrible, and consistently bad as well…one of the 3 worst in all
    BCS conferences, along with Texas and Miami…

    short week never a good spot for the road team, and the fact that they played on saturday makes it even tougher (lots of teams have the sat off before thurs nite games)

    And there’s absolutely no line value with clemson…Tigers were -7 at BC (actually closed 6.5)…is Wake better than BC..?? Of course!! Then why would you lay 5 more pts, or basically a TD more, at Wake..?? you’re in no-man’s land at -12…you basically have to win by 2 TDs…that’s double the spread vs BC

    I’m limiting my plays this year and mostly playing totals so I don’t have any action tomorrow nite so i’ll root for you guys but I just don’t see the edge…is Clemson better than Wake? of course…does that mean they roll out of bed and win by 2 TDs…?? I think that’s a tough position to be in

    good luck

    • jimmyshivers jimmyshivers says:

      Trent, no worries, we won’t always agree but I appreciate the well thought out sentiments..

      Both teams played Saturday so not sure how the short week adversely affects either. Their’s some natural devaluation with the short week for the road team, but I feel the talent and depth gaps are more than sufficient to make up the difference.

      That Clemson-BC line was a product of 1) people not knowing just how bad BC was and 2) a great spot for BC, with them coming off a bye and Clemson off the FSU loss which was supposed to break their will. Watching that game it was clear that even with BC’s ability to move the football (even with Camparano this week, something Wake doesn’t have) they just don’t have the horses to keep up.

      Wake being a better football team than BC is also another question for another day. Definitely a better coaching staff for Wake, but I’m not all that convinced that if you switched the schedules around BC and Wake don’t have records that are all different.

      This is a Clemson team with only 1 loss that still has dreams of a BCS game berth this year, via Charlotte or at large. It’s the kind of game with a national audience that teams like this try to come out and make a statment. Naturally that doesn’t mean they will roll out of bed and cover, but I like the match-ups enough to consider it a +EV possibility.

      It’s a little scary to lay DD on the road, especially against Jim Grobe and his band of misfits who’ve kept every game inside this number all season (except in Tallahassee). I just don’t Wake’s defense has been tested very often and when they have been they’ve failed those tests.

      Like you said, it’s not the best situational, but I feel like that’s been factored into the line here. I’ve been wrong often this season, but I have to stick with my guns. BOL this weekend Trent, you’ve been one of my favorite posters and I value your input.

  2. Trentmoney says:

    just a few things and then i wish you good luck for tmrw…

    1. BC is probably the worst team in the NCAA…i feel bad because being from the northeast it was always nice to see them succeed, and i’ve met coach spaz and former AD Defelipo and they are really good people, and the program had such success for so long (i think it was 7 straight bowl wins)…but they are horrible and getting even worse as attrition is taking a toll…they have honorable-mention high school kids playing for them…that’s unheard of at this level

    2. even if you look at the FSU lines for both teams as a “base-line” this game should be less than 10…sometimes value doesn’t matter…i stand firm that tenn +21 last week was a line with value (i ended up not playing it thankfully)…but by several different measures that line should have been around 17…so you can cover a line that doesn’t have value, and not cover a line that does…but those are 2 separate measures of line value and clemson doesn’t pass either so i don’t see this as a “value play”

    3. there is a big difference between home and away on a short week…i’ve spoken to coaches and they hate night games on the road…kids don’t know what to do with themselves all day…home teams can keep busy with themselves…at least on a saturday it’s their usual week schedule, and there’s also more time to rest up and get well phsically…getting on that plane or bus on a wednesday after a game saturday is much worse than getting on a friday…not a reason for you to play or not play, but certainly not an advantage…is it any wonder that home teams on thursday night do so well..?? (in nfl too this year)…football players are creatures of habit…i remember jimmy johnson saying when he was coach of the dolphins that he wished every game was 1pm on sunday…playing a road game on a thurs nite after playing saturday is a difficult spot to play in…it’s a lot more difficult for the road team than the home team…and the numbers in the past have shown that as well

  3. Trentmoney says:

    Good hit w/ Clempzin last night…glad you got it

    (that’s how they say it down there…)

    • jimmyshivers jimmyshivers says:

      We say it Clempsun down here in Raleigh, was glad to see the Tiggers play well last night. We get to put our Wake-BC theory to the test next week as the Eagles visit Wake. Expect a BC win this weekend makes that line 4ish, but if BC loses it could very well be 7 or so (unless Spaz gets fired this week). Can’t see it more than 7, but if it is I’m all over BC. Good luck this weekend Trent

  4. Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

    Good number on NCST-UNC total. After we talked I didn’t get to it in time before they took it off the board because of the weather. The next number I saw was 54, which crossed key # 55 keeping me from playing it.

    I’m with you and GS w/ TTech (just didn’t post it), but could only get +7. Should be a close game in any case (or K-State continues to roll. LOL!).

    Nice Clemson selection by you and Sabert. BOL this weekend.

    • jimmyshivers jimmyshivers says:

      Grabbed that total as soon as I put 2+2 together and realized that Hurricane Sandy might impact the game. Looks like that’s lessened somewhat but still feel like it’s the right side.

      Really like that Texas Tech play, K State a really good side but this Texas Tech team has put up great numbers against a really tough schedule (Teamrankings.com has their SOS top 5 nationally). Should be a fantastic game.

      BOL Pez, Big weekednd coming

  5. GoSooners GoSooners says:

    BOL this week Jimmy. By the way I got a little bit of the under for the KSU/TT game. KSU plays a style of football that normally isn’t that condusive to high scores. Especially against better defenses of the Big 12 (example ISU and OU this season). They actually scored just 17 on OU when you take away their defensive fumble recovery for a TD. WV’s defense was just really really bad last week. I don’t see the same type of game at all this week with the Cats going up against a stronger D. On the other side, the history of TT on the road says their scoring goes way down, with the exception of the game last week with TCU. Played in-state. So I expect a game played somewhere in the high 20′s.

    • jimmyshivers jimmyshivers says:

      Good stuff on that under GS, expect both defenses to look to bring a big effort here, and the total is pretty high for what KSU has traditionally done. Good luck tomorrow my friend

  6. Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

    Great job jimmy. Looks like I got lucky on that NCST-UNC line movement. Let’s kill them again next week.

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