It was another winning week for TSE cappers as we went 19-15 on posted plays and 2-0 on our newsletter exclusive picks.
Below are some of the games that we are considering betting on this week and a few reasons why we like a particular side or total. Please feel free to join in the discussion and offer your feedback, we would definitely like to hear about how you are viewing a particular side or total.
Temple – Pitt U 48
Both teams averaging a little over 20 ppg. Temple has scored 13 & 17 points in their two road games and both games went under (43 & 41). Pitt D is allowing about 377 ypg and 22.60 ppg, but that is against some pretty good offenses (teams that avg 400 ypg & nearly 26 ppg).
Iowa – Northwestern U 49.5
Iowa’s offense isn’t very good, but they have a solid D (allowing 20.83 ppg to teams that avg 24.86 ppg). Neither team really has any playmakers on offense, Iowa averages 4.93 yards per play (11th in the B1G) & Northwestern is 6th at 5.19 ypp. Defensively Northwestern is allowing 25.29 ppg to teams that average 25.82 ppg, whereas Iowa is averaging 19.83 ppg on offense against teams that allow 23.25 ppg.
Because it worked so well last week? Auburn continues to play hard. They were in a position to beat Vandy last week but turned the ball over on downs in Vandy territory on their final possession. Johnny Football has some amazing stats, but the majority of them were accumulated against non-SEC schools and an Arkansas team that was discombobulated at the time. Against the other 3 SEC D’s A & M has faced, they are averaging 22 ppg and allowing 23.67 ppg. I am certainly not suggesting that Auburn’s D is anywhere near as good as Florida and LSU’s, but it is probably in the range of Mississippi’s, and Ole Miss held A & M to 23 defensive points.
Mississippi State – Alabama U 48
This will be the best defense that either team has seen all season long.
I locked in this number earlier today. The Cat offense has put up a ton of yards and points against better defenses than what USC brings to Tucson on Saturday.
Notre Dame – Oklahoma U 48.5
Two of the better defenses in college football and one team struggles to score on offense. Hopefully the Sooners don’t put up too many points.
Nebraska D struggled to stop Northwestern last week (of course the turnovers and short fields didn’t help either) and they typically struggle against dual threat QBs. Now they face one of the best dual threat QBs in college football (well I don’t know how much of a dual threat Robinson is considering his passing deficiencies). Except for that Alabama game, the Michigan D has been solid. Revenge spot for Nebraska ….. whatever!
Just a reminder, these are only leans. Sometimes I will play this side, other times i will re-evaluate my lean and be on the complete other side. The leans are used to spur discussion and get some shared thoughts and opinions from everyone, so let me know your thoughts. I try and wait til a bit later in the week to make official plays (for injury, weather, coaching reasons), but every once in awhile, I will have some early plays I see value on.
I was talking with Jimmy about this one today. I think this is a great line for Clemson. I haven’t ran my system on the whole week yet, but this line is so skewed. I have Clemson winning this one by close to 20. Clemson has the advantage literally on every position. On top of that, I think national TV week games take out the “one team being more motivated than another” factor. Every 18-22 year old kid gets jacked to play on ESPN. Clemson know sthey need this one.
Ole Miss +6.5
This should literally come as a surprise to no one that has remotely followed me, but I just don’t get this line. I’m trying not to be a homer but come on, Ole Miss is the better team, with a better coach. I think Arky is being overhyped after beating up on the worst 2 teams in the SEC and people still don’t get that the Rebels are good. Ole Miss should be favored by a TD here, but just for argument purposes, lets say by a FG bc they are away (still giving homefield too much value). That line to me is still about 10pts off. I’m waiting to see if it gets to 7.
Illinois is brutal. This game is brutal and I seriously hope I don’t find value on it because I don’t want to go through the pain of watching it/gamecasting it, but once again, the wrong team is favored. Indiana is battle tested and has played a good schedule. They’ve lost alot, which is troubling, but they’ve been in every single game.
Vandy – 1,000,000
Come on. Mass is one of the WORST teams in the NCAA, if not the worst. They have players tweeting during halftime of game sthey get shut out. They are flat out awful, and playing an SEC team that actually has a good defense. Only issue is, can Vandy get some passing touchdowns? Rodgers is sporadic.
Miss St. +24
Nick Saban laughed in my face last week when I thought he wouldn’t cover the spread. This is the best D that Bama has seen, on paper. Miss St. still hasn’t played anyone. I think they need 14+ here to cover. Arky was +20 vs Bama, OM was +31, Mizzou +21, Tenn +19.5. Is Miss St. and playing at Bama make Miss St. worse than most of these teams? I don’t think so. Need to evaluate more though.
Texas A&M -14 / Okla -10
I know these are HUGE public plas, which I normally don’t put much warrant into, but you have to keep in mind, the book always wins over time so I am going to think more on these. I just don’t see how Auburn/ND scores here. It is really hard for me to back a team led by (insert either ND or Auburn’s QB here). They are both horrible. ND actually has a decent defense, but has not been tested through the air. Auburn….well, yeah.
Last Week: Pretty much of a disaster. Almost nothing went right . I tried to play too many situational spots without paying enough attention to the numbers. The KSU/WV game was a good example of it. For the rest of the games it was a week where the public crushed the books. And when that happens I usually lose. As was pointed out by a poster in my thread last week, there were a large number of public dogs. Normally these aren’t great bets. But public dogs like Duke, NM, Michigan St, Indiana, KSU, Penn State and WF came through for their public backers. But I wouldn’t count on this same thing happening two weeks in a row. Vegas doesn’t like to lose. So be very careful this week. The lines are extra tight.
This Week: I won’t be playing any situational spots unless my numbers line up too. But I do like a hell of a lot of dogs this week. And most of them aren’t public dogs. A few games that I’m considering:
TCU +7.5: This line was immediately bet down from 9, but I think TCU is still an undervalued team this year. Even though TCU lost to ISU, which OSU easily defeated last week, the Frogs still have much better numbers than ISU on both sides of the ball. And I suspect now that TCU has their QB issues ironed out with Boykin (something they didn’t have vs ISU), ISU would have a lot of trouble getting the easy turnovers and beating this team again. OSU once again going through some QB issues with Walsh out for the season and Lunt now back in the fold. But he hasn’t played for several weeks. And still may not be 100%. When it comes to injuries, Gundy isn’t talking. The Pokes also lost one of their best WR’s to injury last week. So I don’t think this week is going to be nearly as easy as last week. TCU has a lot of fight left in them. And I like the way they came from way down in the closing minutes of their game with TT game to tie it up. I think they’ll take a lot of good out of that OT loss. TCU will have the better defense in this game and getting over a TD.
Kentucky +14: If I was looking blindly at just the numbers not knowing which teams are playing, I would have trouble deciding who has the advantage. Isn’t it about time we stopped going by name recognition with Mizzou and just call them what they really are? Not a very good team. And especially not a very good SEC team. Their slow developing QB read Utah offense isn’t going to work in the SEC. The defenses are simply too quick to alow this play to develop 5 yards deep in the backfield. Mizzou is getting eaten alive. Their only averaging a little over 13 ppg in conference play. And now they are expected to cover 2 TD’s. I know UK isn’t very good. But believe it or not they are the better offensive team in this game. And only 33 ypg seperate these defenses. Franklin still out for Missouri.
Kent State +13.5: This is one of those go with the go with games in which both teams are on a 5 game ATS run. But I almost always prefer the dogs when these kinds of hot spread teams meet. The Big East is just one tiny step up from the MAC. And KSU might very well be the best team in the MAC. I also like their rushing game. So this is going to be power on power. Rutgers is one of those kinds of teams with a high + TO margin, that just sits back and waits for other teams to make mistakes. Like Temple did last week. But Kent State is a better teams than Temple, and they also have a high + TO margin. So if Rutgers is going to cover against this spread, they’ll have to earn it the hard way.
Minnesota +3.5: Purdue coming off a crushing defeat and now have to travel again. Minnesota actually has the better overall numbers in this game. Especially on defense.
Michigan +2.5: There are several games this week where if your not sure about the game because the numbers are close, just look at the coaching. And Michigan has a HUGE coaching advantage in this game. Pelini is on his way to another mediocre 8 win season with few memorable wins. His team is just too undisciplined (-9 TO margin). It almost cost them the game last week. And with facing a much better defense this week, I can see more turnover problems. The Huskers had the best possible scnerio last week coming off a bye week, and still couldn’t cover a 6 point spread. I don’t see where anything has changed. The better defense getting points.
Tennessee +14: With all of SC’s SEC East dreams pretty much shattered in the last two weeks I’m not sure if they’ll come out and play at the high level we saw 3 weeks ago against Georgia. Plus I think this team is dead tired emotionally and physically form playing 3 top 10 teams in a row. Tennessee still playing for a bowl birth and their coaches job. Although it’s probably too late for Dooley. In this game SC shouldn’t present quite as many offensive problems that Bama did last week.
A few others I’m looking at: NCST, Rice, South Alabama, Vandy, Ole Miss, Wash St, Miss St, Iowa, MSU, Navy, Auburn, Syracuse