Pezgordo’s College Football Picks – YTD: 45-43 ATS
5-5 last week on posted picks. Three of the losses (Wisconsin – Purdue U, Fresno State +7.5 & Tennessee +3) could have easily gone my way.
Mixed results for my season win totals selections. My Oregon State O 4.5 wins has already cashed as the Beavers are sitting 5-0 and ranked in the top 10. But my Auburn O 7 wins and my Utah O 7.5 wins both look lost. However, my UCLA O 6 wins is looking real good and Iowa’s upset of Michigan State last week was a big boost to their O 7.5 wins. Tennessee O 7 wins is not looking great, but the easy part of their schedule kicks in after the Alabama game.
I have updated this segment. Last week I beat the closing line in 7 of 9 games and my overall closing line value for week # 7 was +.58.
After 7 weeks I have beaten the closing line in 63 of 87 games (72.41%), I have matched the closing line in 13 other games and I have wagered on the wrong side of the closing number in 11 games for an overall closing line value of +1.59
I’m hoping this isn’t a homer pick. I jumped on the Devils when the line first came out, but after having run my numbers I am not quite as confident. The Devil D has not played an offense anywhere near this potent this season. But ASU does have some good intangibles in their favor including what should be a rocking home field advantage tonight, and this will also be Oregon’s first true road game this season.
Auburn +7 (1.5 units)
Vandy has played 4 SEC games and scored 13, 3, 19 & 17 points. Tough to cover a 7 point spread when you average 13 ppg. Auburn is allowing 26.50 ppg but they have faced some high powered offenses including Clemson, ULM, Arkansas and Ole Miss. So the Tiger D is better than their stats indicate as they have allowed these 26.50 ppg vs teams that average 32.63 ppg.
I used this game as TSE’s weekly SEC video. We are 5-1 the last 6 weeks with the video.
SabertStxVii has a great write-up here on this game.
In 4 of the last 5 weeks UW has faced the following defenses: LSU (12.67 ppg), Stanford (21.50 ppg), Oregon (21.50 ppg) & USC (18.50 ppg). This week they get an Arizona defense that is allowing 544 ypg and 39.20 ppg. I believe Keith Price and his make shift OL will have a lot more success on offense than they have had the past several games. On the other side of the ball new DC Wilcox has the UW D playing much better this season allowing 28.40 ppg vs teams that average 35.67 ppg.
Michigan State +10.5
Just thought this was too many points in a rivalry game like this. Sparty also has the best defense in the Big 10, though Blue is a very close second.
Stanford – California U 49
“So this is the Big Game?” It’s the 30th anniversary of “The Play.”
North Carolina State – Maryland U 45
UCF – Memphis U 51
Only see one team scoring much in this game.
Southern Miss -3 (-120)
I used this pick as our weekly BEST BET at College Football Zealots for week # 8. We are 5-2 on the season over there. I know we have a lot of SEC readers, so go check out Kevin’s weekly SEC predictions too.
LSU – Texas A & M U 52
Johnny Football hasn’t seen a defense this good since he faced the Gators in week # 1. Florida completely shut down the A & M offense in the 2nd half of that game, however, it was Manziel’s first career start. Nevertheless, I still don’t believe he is ready to deal with a defense that is this big and fast, especially with his leading receiver Ryan Swope questionable with a head injury.
On the other side of the ball you know what LSU is going to do. They’re going to pound the Aggies on the ground all day. And with QB Mettenberger struggling in the passing game I can see Les running even more than usual, playing good defense and relying on special teams to win this one.