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GoSooners College Football Picks For Week #9

GoSooners College Football Picks For Week #9

GoSooners College Football Picks For Week #9

Last Week: 2-5
Season: 28-30

 

Texas Tech (+7.5) over Kansas State **

Mizzou/Kentucky (UNDER 49) ***

Georgia (+7) over Florida **

Auburn (+15) over Texas A$M **

Okla. State -6.5 (-120) over TCU **

North Texas (+3) over Middle Tennessee **

Bowling Green (-14) over Eastern Michigan ***

Michigan ML (+105) over Nebraska **

Penn State (PK) over Ohio State **

UCLA +7 (-120) over Arizona State **

 

 

Texas Tech (+7.5) over Kansas State **

I think this is a bit of a bad spot for KSU coming home after a big nationally televisied road game and now back to facing a real Big 12 opponent who is familiar with their game.. Both teams know each other well from last season’s game in which TT had KSU on the ropes but let them off the hook because of 4 costly turnovers. TT is a dangerous battle tested team who has already played and won two Big 12 road games in hostile environments. If they aren’t hungover from last week’s 3 OT game, I think they can give KSU a battle. QB Doege will present some different problems for KSU than they had last week against pocket passer Geno Smith. And I think this is a dangerous team to be giving more than a TD. Like I said, if the rigors of Big 12 play has caught up with TT, then KSU will probably cover this spread. But I’m going to roll the dice and hope TT has one more game left in them. This is a big game for the Red Raiders. Lose this one and with 2 Big 12 losses are probably out of the running. So I think the Cats will get their best shot.

 

Okie State (-6.5) over TCU **

This is a little bit of a borderline play for me. At the original number of 9 I had a lean to TCU because of their ability to score and possibly backdoor OSU here. But the line has come down and I bought a half point to get this line under a TD. This is mainly a situational play. TCU’s last trip out of Texas was against Kansas in which they won an error plagued 13 point game. Now they have to treavel out of Texas for only the second time this season against an offense that averages 600 ypg. By far the best offense that TCU has faced this year. And it will come on the road after playing a triple OT game. The other Big 12 teams are much deeper and may be able to recover from a game like that, but TCU is a very thin team. Especially on defense. They can’t afford to play two games like that in a row. I think we’ll get our share of scoring out of the Frogs, but i don’t see them being able to stop OSU’s offense. Gundy has a phenomenal ATS record at home in these kinds of short spread games. And I think there is a decent chance it continues here.

 

Bowling Green (-14) over Eastern Michigan ***

I had BG pegged as one of my “Spread Beaters” before the season. In fact I had this team as my top spread beating prospect. They started the season out slow. But consider their competetion in the first month of the season. Florida, Toledo and Va Tech. But now this team is starting to hit their stride. And they’ve covered their last 4 games in a row. The closest game they’ve played in that span was a 14 point road win. They are doing it by what I predicted they would do it with, a lockdown defense. They haven’t allowed more than 12 points in their last 4 games. Compare that to the first month of the season and you’ll see just how much this talented MAC team has improved. I don’t see a 1-6 Eastern Michigan team getting in their way. On top of this, many teams tend to play bad the next week after playing an option team like EM played last week vs Army. Now they have to get their disappointing defense back in MAC play mode, and I don’t think they’ll be able to do it. I think BG easily wins this game and improves their win streak to 5 games. Play on the hot team.

 

North Texas (+3) over Middle Tennessee **

I really like the way this NT team played the other night. They are another team that appears to me like they are starting to figure it out. They had a nice win a couple weeks ago against a 4-2 ULL team. A game in which NT rolled up 524 yards of offense. And now plays another soft defensive team MTST. I think MT is still getting a lot of love for beating a turnover plagued Ga Tech team. But this team really doesn’t have any other signature wins over winning programs. In fact everybody they have beaten are downright bad this season. NT appears to be playing their best ball of the season. They’ve had two weeks off to rest and prepare for this game, while MTST got softened up last week by a physical Miss St team that won 45-3. I feel like this is not only a good situational spot for NT, they also have the little better defensive numbers coming into this game. I’ll take the points in a game I think NT wins straight up.

 

Michigan ML (+105) over Nebraska **

I know this isn’t the gretest way to cap football games. But with this game I’m looking at the big picture within the Big 10. I know this conference is down this year, but when was the last time a bad defeisnve team played for or won the Big 10? With the style that this conference plays, almost never. I’ll give the Huskers props for having a good offense. Probably the best in the league. But I can’t get past the fact that they are giving up nearly 400 ypg on defense. Another troubling stat with this team is they are -9 in TO Margin. Again, not a sign of a Big 10 champion candidate. Michigan on the other hand is giving up a mere 285 ypg on defense. Much more in line with the kind of team that will represent their division in the Big 10 championship game. It’s still a bit of a chancey play with the game being played in Lincoln. But i almost always lean with the team with the best defense and head coach. Along with a mobile QB which has always given the Huskers fits over the years. The same should hold true here against the Huskers rebuilding defense.

 

Penn State (PK) over Ohio State **

I heard before the season that PSU head coach Bill O’Brien was an offensive guru. And he’s proved it with this team. Considering how slow PSU started in their ugly losses to Ohio and Virginia, who would have ever thought that they would have made it this far where they’ve gone on a 6 game ATS winning streak. The big reason is QB Matt McGloin, who fits very well within this offense. And has made PSU the leading passing team in the conference. Plus a defense that is giving up only 321 ypg. Compare that to Ohio State, who is giving up nearly 400 ypg. These stats are coming with 6 out of 8 of their games being played at home. Not very good. And on top of this, the weakest part of their defense is against the pass. I don’t know if Braxton Miller is playing. But even if he does, I doubt he’ll be 100%. And if he does play, I want to see how he reacts when he takes that first hit. And from what I’ve seen of this PSU defense, they will hit you. I think this PSU team feels like they are a team of desitny with something to prove to the doubters, even if they can’t go to the Big 10 Championship Game. OSU has barely been scraping by for the last couple of weeks. I think it catches up with them here. I’m not about to stop this Penn State ATS train.

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14 Responses to “GoSooners College Football Picks For Week #9”

  1. doug says:

    BOL as Always. Hope ya get out the Broom and catch a Sweeper.

  2. kiel says:

    GoSooners are you going to do a write up on the Texas Tech/K-State game? I just don’t see what is so attractive about the Red Raiders here.

  3. alkimyst says:

    Keep up the good work, Sooners! What is your opinion of your boys this week? My buddy in Chicago who is a large book claims that he is taking ALL Notre Dame action thus far. Makes me want to pound the Sooners after last week, since the books seemed to get hit pretty hard. I also think that the Irish don’t have the overall team speed to be able to play with Oklahoma all night. they have not played anyone thus far with great team speed, other than Miami, who is having a down year. I was at that game, and believe me, it could have been a completely different outcome if Miami doesn’t drop those balls early for TDs. Whioe ND has a great defense, only giving up 5 TDs thus far this year, they have not faced anyone that will spread them out like Oklahoma will be able to. That being said, if the Sooners jump on them early, I think the Irish will struggle to come back, having to utilize the pass. If there defense starts having to spend a bunch of time on the filed, I can see the sooners pulling away late and naming their number, really. Any insights form you would be greatly appreciated.

  4. GoSooners GoSooners says:

    Alkymist, in my opinion OU is the side. But I’m staying away from the game this week. I don’t want to jinx them. Ha! I think the game comes down to OU’s ability to run the ball. If they can do that, it opens up their passing game and takes the pressure off Landry Jones. And we all know if it’s anything that throws him off his game it’s pressure. I think ND is built more for the Big 10 type of team more than they are in dealing with these spread offenses that utilize a lot of skill players and speed on the field. It’s an interesting contrast of styles. I can’t wait to watch this game to see how they match up. BOL this weekend

  5. Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

    I like the Bowling Green pick. Was looking at that one myself. Good luck this week GS.

  6. GoSooners GoSooners says:

    Thanks Pez. I upped my strength of play rating up to 3 stars for the BG game. I have a pretty good feeling about this team. Eastern Michigan is going from playing the worst defensive team on their schedule to the best D on their schedule. I think BG has a great chance to beat Ohio this year and win their divison. I look for a rematch with Toledo in the MAC title game.

  7. GoSooners GoSooners says:

    OpeningLine..Even though EM has scored a lot of points in the last 2 weeks, I think this one has a decent chance to go under too. The last good defense EM faced was Kent State. And they were held to 14 points at home in that game. So I doubt they get more than that here unless BG gets up big early and EM scores in junktime. BOL this weekend.

  8. Seth says:

    GL on penn state. I just don’t see Ohio State losing here, but I’ve been wrong many times before.

  9. GoSooners GoSooners says:

    Seth, I could always be wrong. But I feel that PSU is on a mission, and this is their bowl game. The place will be rockin’ tomorrow. BOL this weekend.

  10. Mike says:

    Thanks gs.

    What kept you off Tennessee? I’m on them at +14. So Carolina may be unfocused here

  11. GoSooners GoSooners says:

    Mike, I’m not sure if SC is going to take their frustrations out on Tennessee, or they are worn out from the last 3 weeks playing 3 top 10 teams. If I had to choose I would take the Tennessee side. I just wasn’t sure enough about this game to play it. But I definitely had a lean to the Vols. BOL. I hope you hit it.

  12. Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

    GS, Trent$$$ is 13-0 in the month of October. If he wins his pick tomorrow (same total we are on), he will finish with a perfect month. UNREAL!

  13. GoSooners GoSooners says:

    Pez, Trent has had an outstanding run. One of the best that I’ve ever seen. He’s definitely in the zone. I played his Louisville over total tonight and pushed on my Louisville -3. We might have to start calling him Mr.October…ha!

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  1. TSE College Football Picks – Week # 9 Summary - The Saturday Edge - [...] GoSooners [...]

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