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GoSooners Week #8 College Football Picks

GoSooners Week #8 College Football Picks

GoSooners Week #8 College Football Picks

Season: 26-25-1

Nebraska (-6) over Northwestern **

West Virginia (-2.5) over Kansas State **

Navy (-2.5) over Indiana **

Michigan State (+10) over Michigan **

Toledo (+7.5) (-120) over Cincinnati *

Kansas (+35) over OU **

UW (+7.5) over Arizona **

 

 

 

Navy (-2.5) over Indiana **

Little bit of a bad spot and bad matchup for Indiana. The Hoosiers put a lot of effort into their game last week against Ohio State in which they ended up losing a shootout 52-49. Now after that huge effort, they have to get ready in a week for the Navy option. Tough to do in the middle of the season against a type of offense that Indiana never faces during the season. Indiana giving up 230 ypg rushing. Ouch! A tough matchup, and another game that looks like Indiana will yet again try to outscore their opponet. This time on the road against a pretty sound Navy team who looks like they are starting to get on a little bit of a roll.

 

Michigan State (+10) over Michigan **

Michigan doing some good things of late. But it’s been against a couple teams who look to be on a downward trend, or have been down all year like Illinois. Sparty very much still has some fight in them. And this will be the first time they have been the dog all season. I still consider MSU one of the elite teams of the Big 10. But I use that term loosely when I talk about the Big 10. This is a rivalry game that MSU has absolutely owned for the last 4 years. And I don’t see them going easily here. Michigan wins, but it won’t be easy.

Nebraska (-6) over Northwestern **

A great situational spot to play the Huskers, coming in after an embarassing national telvision loss and two weeks to fume about it. Plus a bigtime revenge game for Nebraska. The Huskers have also played the much much tougher schedule of the two. NW starting to show their vulnerbility now that they are into Big 10 play, with a loss at Penn State, and barely scraping by a below average Minnesota team. They haven’t seen an offense that is even close to Nebraska’s this season. And Nebraska is the first team NW has played that actually averages more rushing yards per game. I expect a rested and more athletic Hiskers team to roll here.

 

West Virginia (-2.5) over Kansas State **

This is a game that I’ve gone back and forth on. But after looking at all of the numbers, I’m going to play the human side of this matchup. With WV coming into this conference, there is going to be an adjustement period for teams traveling to a far outpost like Morgantown. As well as WV traveling to Big 12 country. It showed last week what kind of cost travel can be with WV’s loss to Texas Tech last week. With KSU, they not only had to travel to ISU and play a close 60 minute game against them, they now have to turn around and travel again. This time to a stadium and atmosphere they aren’t familiar with. And in a primetime game against a team coming off an embarassing loss. I might have a different feeling about this game if they were playing earlier in the season and were getting the 16 points they were getting when they went to Norman. But in a long travel game that is almost a tossup, I’m going to slightly favor the home team with the dangerous QB and offense. I hate going against the running dog, but like I said, I prefer to get more points on the line when coming into a tough spot like this. Plus WV’s record in primetime night games in Morgantown is a very good 17-3 since 2002.

 

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15 Responses to “GoSooners Week #8 College Football Picks”

  1. OpeningLine says:

    I hope you are right about the Nebraska game. The Huskers are coming off a bye week, which hopefully they used to exorcise their demons defensively. They have been flat out awful against mobile QB’s, and they got eaten alive by Northwestern’s versatile QB Kain Colter last year. Even if Bo Pelini puts together an excellent gameplan to keep him in check, Nebraska still has to make tackles in space, which is something they have not done well this season. If (big if) they do somehow stuff the zone-read attack, forcing the passing QB onto the field, this matchup will greatly favor the Huskers. I am more inclined to take the total (over 61) in this game.

  2. GoSooners GoSooners says:

    OpeningLine, thanks for your reply. I understand where your coming from here with Nebraska. My take on this game is despite their last game, Nebraska is still one of the elite teams in the Big 10, and NW isn’t. It’s always possible that Colter could do the same thing to NU as he did last year. But from what I’ve experienced in the past, unless they are an elite college QB like a Braxton Miller or an Andrew Luck, teams like Nebraska don’t usually get burned by QB’s like this two years in a row. I think Pelini probably got his defense going back to basics and fundamentals in the off week, and they’ve had 2 weeks to gameplan for this QB.

    Last season Colter came into Lincoln in only his second start. And I don’t think anybody really knew about the kid or his abilities. NU was just coming off their big win against MSU, and then found themselves as -17 point faves over NW. And were probably taking them a little too lightly. NU should be much more focused here. And the Huskers have a much better offense than they had last year. I don’t think NW will have an answer on defense for Martinez and Burkhead. I’ve been known to be wrong about Nebraska, but in my opinion anything under a TD is a gift here. NW finally starting to get to the meat of their schedule. And things will be infinitely tougher for here on out. BOL this weekend

  3. OpeningLine OpeningLine says:

    Last year the Huskers gameplanned all week for Persa, and then he got hurt in the first half. Colter came into the game, and Nebraska had no idea how to defend him. You would think they would have a much better idea how to stop him this year, but after watching them against UCLA and Ohio State earlier this season, I am not sure if they even have the ability to stop a mobile QB for 60 minutes.

  4. jon says:

    no record of last week?

  5. Doug says:

    BOL as Always. As always i seem to be on the other side of Huskers i found +7 and i have had some success with NW this year. As you say they havent seen an offense like this one and i am not so sure that the Huskers can contain the mobile QB as mentioned that Last game has been there maybe too long to hit the road with more than a TD win?
    I Like KSU here as WV just has NO defense and whoever has the ball last may win. Should be Plenty of Points.
    I do like our Sparty play in the interstate matchup that line looks a liitle long to me for sure.
    BOL to you.
    ASU +8
    Utah +10
    Cal +3
    Toledo +7
    BYU +13.5
    KSU +3
    NW+7
    Sparty +10
    OSU -14
    OU -35

  6. Doug says:

    Well so much for AzSt. My list might be good to fade. That was the Worst CFB selection i have made this year. Oregon even better and ASU is even worse than i thought all the way around. That was a pitiful performance by ASU and Oregon could have even made it worse, the could have!

  7. GoSooners GoSooners says:

    Doug, I like your BYU, Utah and Cal plays. I think they have a good chance of hitting. Cal and Utah are teams I have marked for having a better second half of the season. I also think Nebraska has a better second half after their bye week. ASU was a tough loss for everyone. But conisdering the way they’ve been playing up to now, I also think they had a halfway decent chance to cover. Oregon is just a very dangerous team, who at least appears to have a little better defense this year when Kelly has his first unit in. What got me about the game was there was 50 points scored at half, and I’m betting everybody and their sister thought the game was easily going over. But Kelly has a habit of taking his foot off the petal when he gets comfortable leads. Taking ASU +8.5 for a second half play would have been an easy bet. Something to remember with Oregon down the road. I know one thing, Oregon is the fastest college football team than I ever seen.

  8. jerry vanderbeek says:

    I agree that West Virginia game is tough. I always lean heavily to the rushing angle and Kansas State seems like they should dominate when looking at the stats; however, I think West Virginia’s biggest weakness is against the pass and I am not sure that K State can exploit that. I also think that if West Virginia can strike fast and quick that K State might have trouble keeping up and they are not built to come from behind.

    I also agree on Nebraska. Bo typically has his team ready after a bad loss when Husker Nation is biting at his heels. The only worry here is that Northwestern always seems to be in position for a back door cover whenever I am against them.

  9. GoSooners GoSooners says:

    Jerry, thanks for your comments. With WV you are correct that their weakness has been against the pass. They are actually pretty decent against the run allowing just 120 ypg. Now I’m sure KSU will get their yardage on them on the ground. But I don’t think they’ll be able to exploit WV through the air like Baylor did when they played there. The WV DC said that Baylor ran some formations that day that they had never seen on film. They were sending their wideouts all the way to the sidelines to line up. That’s what you call spreading out the field! KSU is much more conventional than Baylor or Texas Tech. The key to the game is if KSU can stop the pass. OU was a mess on offense when they played KSU. Half of the positions hadn’t even been filled. OU used a different set of skill players for Texas than they did for KSU. Plus their lines came togther much better after their bye weeks. So KSU didn’t face near the downhill pass threat with OU than they will with WV. And they’ll be traveling much farther this time without the break of playing an easy opponent the week before like they did before. If KSU can pull off this game, they’ll be a legit top 5 team. Right now with the players they have, I’m just not convinced of it.

    With Nebraska, I think anything below a TD is good number that is less likely to be backdoored. Nebraska is a team I have pegged to play better in the second half of the season. Burkhead should be back off injury and in full form. And after the bye week of rest, I expect the Huskers defense to play much better Saturday. Remember that they had to play two very physical Big 10 teams back to back with Wisconsin and Ohio State. My bet is they were dead tired physically/emotionally going into the Horseshoe after playing a full 60 minute game with a team like Wisconsin. I think NU left everything on the field in that game. It was a good win because Wisconsin is highly improved from the beginning of the season. But it took everything out of NU. And Pelini isn’t a good enough coach to get this team up like that for two big games in a row. I believe NU is a much better team than they showed at Ohio State. And they are still one of the elites of their conference. Despite having a decent QB, NW isn’t one of those elite teams. Their very easy early schedule has hidden their big weaknesse. Which is defense. PSU kind of exploited them. Nebraska should do it even more. Nebraska coming in rested, and NW playing their 8th straight game.

  10. Sendacash says:

    GS, I can’t remember a CFB Saturday with so many public dogs in display. I count at least 10, very strange.

  11. GoSooners GoSooners says:

    sendacash, what has surprised me this season is how many public dogs have gone on to cover the spreads. I think the key is to make sure the line is staying the same or going down accordingly with the wagering on the dog. If the line continues to go up or surpasses a key number it’s a red flag for me to stay off the dog. Michigan St. has been a public dog, but the line never surpassed the key number, and in fact went down to 8.5 right before kickoff. Which was a good sign for the dog. WF was also a public dog today and covered. Iowa State didn’t cover. I was a little leery of that game anyway with the closing line ending up at 14. But there is an extra large amount of public dogs today. Including KSU tonight. KSU was also a public dog against OU earlier in the season and covered. So the sharps can be wrong too.

  12. Sendacash says:

    Thanks, I will take that into consideration as I got scared away from both Mich St and K St, although it did lead me to a play on Okie St.

  13. Sendacash says:

    You guys think this Colin Klein kid can play on Sundays? I think he could.

  14. GoSooners GoSooners says:

    He’s such a good athlete that he could be drafted for a number of different positons. He’s got the perfect size for a tight end if he doesn’t work out at QB. But hell, if Tebow can make it I know Klein can.

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