Who to bet on Week # 8: Sides & Totals to consider
It was another winning week for TSE cappers as we went 18-15 on posted plays and 1-0 on our newsletter picks (SabertStxVii released Florida -8 in the newsletter before putting it in his thread, so I only counted them once).
Below are some of the games that we are considering betting on this week and a few reasons why we like a particular side or total. Please feel free to join in the discussion and offer your feedback, we would definitely like to hear about how you are viewing a particular side or total.
Arizona State +10
I jumped on this one last night. Better D getting points is always attractive to me. I hope it is not a homer pick. Devils have looked awfully impressive so far this year, but they are about to take a HUGE step up in class. Last time Ducks were in Tempe, the Devils rolled up something like 600 yards and still lost via 7 turnovers.
I haven’t reviewed this week’s numbers, but I believe SMU has the better defense and is also a potential running dog here. Houston seems to have gotten things back on track after that terrible start, but they haven’t really played anyone since that UCLA beat down.
Nebraska’s defense is terrible.
I still say Temple is not a good football team, though I have been surprised at how well they are doing in their first year back in the Big East. Major step up in class here for the Owls.
I spoke with SabertStxVii about this game this morning. Vols played Bama tough last year before their depth issues did them in. This will be the best offense Alabama has faced all season.
Washington + 7.5
Husky defense is actually playing pretty well right now as compared to last season. New DC Wilcox is making a difference. Arizona defense is terrible and despite a young and beat up OL, I believe Price and the UW offense will have a lot of success in this game.
Michigan State +10.5
I got this one last night at +10.5. I just think it is too many points in a rivalry game where the talent matchup is more or less even. Sparty also has the statistically better D, though Blue is right behind them.
Vandy shouldn’t be a TD favorite over a more talented team (though admittedly the coaches are not getting that talent to perform at Auburn). Still expect this game to be close. Auburn is definitely a potential running dog.
Fresno State -15
1-3 on the road with losses against Oregon, Tulsa and Boise State. 3-0 at home with blowout wins against Weber State, Colorado and SDSU. Surprisingly they have the second best D in the MWC. Wyoming’s defense is not good.
Stanford – California U 49
I jumped on this total as soon as they posted the number, 51.5. When I went to hit submit I got a message saying the new line was 49. Damn that is a lot of line value lost, but I still took it. Golden Bears seem to be getting things straightened out, especially on defense. Neither QB is very good, both teams like to run the football and play defense. Still wish I got the 51.5.
Already been teased on Twitter by CFBMatrix for this, but I like Auburn this weekend. The team has continued to fight, and still can make a bowl game this year. IF you watched the Ole Miss game, they actually started to figure it out on offense. Tre Mason and McCaleb are pretty filthy and if they each touch the ball 25+ times, I have a tough time seeing Vandy stopping them here. Moseley wasn’t terrible here either. The defense played well, and they just had two plays that really turned the pace of this game. Auburn can’t win a shootout, which is what the last 8 minutes became.
Also lean Rutgers too. Their defense is very talented, and very aggressive. They go for the ball on every play. At some point though, their offense is going to have to win them games. This one could be close if Temple can limit the turnovers, but definitely leaning Rutgers.
Like La-Lafayette for the Tuesday night game. I don’t get this line. N Texas has only beaten 2 teams, and they don’t really have many skill players that can take over the game. La-Laf has been playing well and has statistical advantage in a lot of categories.
Penn State +3
Lean PSU too. They are a FG kicker and a bad penalty away from being undefeated. Coming off of a bye week they definitely won’t take Iowa lightly after seeing them take down Mich St (who I also think is overrated, or was).
Notre Dame -14
I hate this, but I also like ND. They seemed to finally figure out some pace on offense with Golson. Their defense is solid as usual and their playing at home. Been saying it all season and will continue to say BYU defense is overrated. They’ve now played 1 team with a good offense, and got beat by 18. They have nothing on offense either.
Middle Tennessee +20
A solid team in a good spot here.
Finally, like ULM. The team has a good offense, and this will be a big game for them. They know WKU is a team to beat and will be dialing out all the tricks here. Think Kolton Browning is a better QB and will be able to control the game. Think both teams are good, but Monroe is better, and getting points.
Not sold on any of these, just initial thoughts.
I was afraid to bet Tennessee last week because I felt they weren’t getting enough points on the road. But it’s a much different situation this week playing at home and getting a ton of points. Since playing Michigan, Bama hasn’t faced anywhere close to a talented QB, or a multi-dimensional offense. So their defensive numbers are a little over inflated. Tennessee can actually run this year too. So I give them a punchers chance at an outright upset if Bama trips up and makes a couple mistakes. They probably wont, but I still like the 3 TD’s.
Oklahoma State -14
I’ve also got leans on OSU -14. The Iowa State and OSU games last week really sets this up nicely. I think the public could continue to bet this one down. I’m hearing Wes Lunt will be back this week. But their other QB is more than capable. Plus this is a revenge spot, and homecoming for OSU. Their Homecoming is a weeklong celebration. They make a very big deal out of it. So the house will be rocking.
I also have a lean on TCU. I don’t see Patterson and this team losing two in a row at home. Especially with the difficult part of their schedule still ahead of them. TCU also looks like they might be starting to get a little momentum. And that new kid at QB Boykin is pretty good. They say he has an even better arm than Pachall.
I also have a lean on BYU. I think it helps that ND got a controversial win and BYU lost at home last week. So 14 is a nice fat line for two good defensive teams. BYU is much better than they showed last week. I think the new QB and schemes that Riley threw at them kind of threw the defense off their game. ND isn’t as much of an offensive threat. So I expect another low scoring game.
That’s all for now. I’ll be taking my time this week after spinning my wheels the last 2 weeks. Just taking a quick glance, there looks to be some very tight lines. So I’m going to try and crack the nut by trying to find some good situational spots, or playing on some teams that look like their starting to get a little momentum.