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Who to bet on Week # 8: Sides & Totals to consider

Who to bet on Week # 8: Sides & Totals to consider

Who to bet on Week # 8: Sides & Totals to consider

It was another winning week for TSE cappers as we went 18-15 on posted plays and 1-0 on our newsletter picks (SabertStxVii released Florida -8 in the newsletter before putting it in his thread, so I only counted them once).

Below are some of the games that we are considering betting on this week and a few reasons why we like a particular side or total. Please feel free to join in the discussion and offer your feedback, we would definitely like to hear about how you are viewing a particular side or total.

Pezgordo

Arizona State +10

I jumped on this one last night. Better D getting points is always attractive to me. I hope it is not a homer pick. Devils have looked awfully impressive so far this year, but they are about to take a HUGE step up in class. Last time Ducks were in Tempe, the Devils rolled up something like 600 yards and still lost via 7 turnovers.

SMU +6

I haven’t reviewed this week’s numbers, but I believe SMU has the better defense and is also a potential running dog here. Houston seems to have gotten things back on track after that terrible start, but they haven’t really played anyone since that UCLA beat down.

Northwestern +4

Nebraska’s defense is terrible.

Rutgers -5

I still say Temple is not a good football team, though I have been surprised at how well they are doing in their first year back in the Big East. Major step up in class here for the Owls.

Tennessee +21

I spoke with SabertStxVii about this game this morning. Vols played Bama tough last year before their depth issues did them in. This will be the best offense Alabama has faced all season.

Washington + 7.5

Husky defense is actually playing pretty well right now as compared to last season. New DC Wilcox is making a difference. Arizona defense is terrible and despite a young and beat up OL, I believe Price and the UW offense will have a lot of success in this game.

Michigan State +10.5

I got this one last night at +10.5. I just think it is too many points in a rivalry game where the talent matchup is more or less even. Sparty also has the statistically better D, though Blue is right behind them.

Auburn +7

Vandy shouldn’t be a TD favorite over a more talented team (though admittedly the coaches are not getting that talent to perform at Auburn). Still expect this game to be close. Auburn is definitely a potential running dog.

Fresno State -15

1-3 on the road with losses against Oregon, Tulsa and Boise State. 3-0 at home with blowout wins against Weber State, Colorado and SDSU. Surprisingly they have the second best D in the MWC. Wyoming’s defense is not good.

Stanford – California U 49

I jumped on this total as soon as they posted the number, 51.5. When I went to hit submit I got a message saying the new line was 49. Damn that is a lot of line value lost, but I still took it. Golden Bears seem to be getting things straightened out, especially on defense. Neither QB is very good, both teams like to run the football and play defense. Still wish I got the 51.5.

 


 

SabertStxVii

Auburn +7

Already been teased on Twitter by CFBMatrix for this, but I like Auburn this weekend. The team has continued to fight, and still can make a bowl game this year. IF you watched the Ole Miss game, they actually started to figure it out on offense. Tre Mason and McCaleb are pretty filthy and if they each touch the ball 25+ times, I have a tough time seeing Vandy stopping them here. Moseley wasn’t terrible here either. The defense played well, and they just had two plays that really turned the pace of this game. Auburn can’t win a shootout, which is what the last 8 minutes became.

Rutgers -5 

Also lean Rutgers too. Their defense is very talented, and very aggressive. They go for the ball on every play. At some point though, their offense is going to have to win them games. This one could be close if Temple can limit the turnovers, but definitely leaning Rutgers.

UL-Lafayette -4

Like La-Lafayette for the Tuesday night game. I don’t get this line. N Texas has only beaten 2 teams, and they don’t really have many skill players that can take over the game. La-Laf has been playing well and has statistical advantage in a lot of categories.

Penn State +3

Lean PSU too. They are a FG kicker and a bad penalty away from being undefeated. Coming off of a bye week they definitely won’t take Iowa lightly after seeing them take down Mich St (who I also think is overrated, or was).

Notre Dame -14 

I hate this, but I also like ND. They seemed to finally figure out some pace on offense with Golson. Their defense is solid as usual and their playing at home. Been saying it all season and will continue to say BYU defense is overrated. They’ve now played 1 team with a good offense, and got beat by 18. They have nothing on offense either.

Middle Tennessee +20

A solid team in a good spot here.

UL-Monroe  +3 

Finally, like ULM. The team has a good offense, and this will be a big game for them. They know WKU is a team to beat and will be dialing out all the tricks here. Think Kolton Browning is a better QB and will be able to control the game. Think both teams are good, but Monroe is better, and getting points.

Not sold on any of these, just initial thoughts.

 


 

GoSooners 

Tennessee +21

I was afraid to bet Tennessee last week because I felt they weren’t getting enough points on the road. But it’s a much different situation this week playing at home and getting a ton of points. Since playing Michigan, Bama hasn’t faced anywhere close to a talented QB, or a multi-dimensional offense. So their defensive numbers are a little over inflated. Tennessee can actually run this year too. So I give them a punchers chance at an outright upset if Bama trips up and makes a couple mistakes. They probably wont, but I still like the 3 TD’s.

Oklahoma State -14

I’ve also got leans on OSU -14. The Iowa State and OSU games last week really sets this up nicely.  I think the public could continue to bet this one down. I’m hearing Wes Lunt will be back this week. But their other QB is more than capable. Plus this is a revenge spot, and homecoming for OSU. Their Homecoming is a weeklong celebration. They make a very big deal out of it. So the house will be rocking.

TCU +2.5

I also have a lean on TCU. I don’t see Patterson and this team losing two in a row at home. Especially with the difficult part of their schedule still ahead of them. TCU also looks like they might be starting to get a little momentum. And that new kid at QB Boykin is pretty good. They say he has an even better arm than Pachall.

BYU +14

I also have a lean on BYU. I think it helps that ND got a controversial win and BYU lost at home last week. So 14 is a nice fat line for two good defensive teams. BYU is much better than they showed last week. I think the new QB and schemes that Riley threw at them kind of threw the defense off their game. ND isn’t as much of an offensive threat. So I expect another low scoring game.

That’s all for now. I’ll be taking my time this week after spinning my wheels the last 2 weeks. Just taking a quick glance, there looks to be some very tight lines. So I’m going to try and crack the nut by trying to find some good situational spots, or playing on some teams that look like their starting to get a little momentum.

 

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12 Responses to “Who to bet on Week # 8: Sides & Totals to consider”

  1. Trentmoney says:

    was looking to take vandy at -3 so i definitely see value on auburn at +7…but things haven’t been right on the plains for the past year so they are either a fade or a pass in my book…not putting any money on them until they turn that program over

  2. Seth says:

    I like UNLV +28 as I doubt boise state wins by 4 touchdowns and UNLV can score. I also like Stanford -2.5 at Cal.

  3. SoonerBS says:

    Just got my plays up for this week and came over to see what you guys are on. I’m glad to see that we are on Arizona State and Tennessee together.

    I am on North Texas +4 though. U-La-La has played a soft schedule this year, especially for a Sun Belt team, and I think North Texas has their best team in years. I see this game being close at home for UNT.

  4. winbet says:

    Great stuff from some well respected formites. The format is great, especially these early week considerations, top class.

    I’m fairly green when it comes to College football but like all sports you want to be on a side that at least doesnt struggle to score and Northwestern, Notre Dame and Penn St all have shown a penchant for it this season.

    From my point of view these are now teams to take on as the lines start to get ridiculous in light of their 15-4 ATS to date. Northwestern in particular seems ripe for the picking considering how overratted the coach is, I think he’s clueless.

    Once again, great job and thank you.

    • Trentmoney says:

      I’ll push back against you in regards to Pat Fitzgerald being clueless…

      NORTHWESTERN IS 6-1

      I’m not saying he’s Bear Bryant…but it’s not like he has geno smith throwing to Justin Hunter and handing off to Marcus Lattimore…

      I do agree with your other point in regards to those teams doing so well ats and not scoring a lot…although 2 of those 3 have tight spreads

      good luck

  5. SoonerBS says:

    Patrick, be careful of Oklahoma State this week. While they will likely get their QB back, there are a bunch more injuries including several of his WR targets. I also think Oklahoma State may be having to lay too many points here.

    Also, you and I could look good against Baylor’s defense. They are simply horrendous. In fact, I think they easily have the worse defense in the Big 12. TCU’s new QB will have a much stouter test this week against Texas Tech. I don’t like the fact that Tech is coming off a big win this week going into TCU, but they have the better team and I think they should be focused considering they are renewing a game with an old rivalry here. I’m on Tech and the low number this week.

  6. GoSooners GoSooners says:

    Denny, right now these are just leans. I’ve already found a few games that I’m liking a little better. Your right about Baylor’s defense. But if you feel that way about them, you’ve also got to feel the same way about WV. They are simply awful on defense, and KSU is going to eat their lunch on offense. Plus I think the REAL Heisman contender in that game will be Colin Klein. I think WV is in a little over their heads in the Big 12 in this first season. They barely beat Baylor, and even had problems against Maryland the game before. They beat a Texas team with another bad defense, but they still had to outscore them to get the win. If nothing else, I’ll probably bet the over in that game with two world class QB’s opposing each other. At least the other Big 12 newcomer TCU has some semblence of a defense. The most impressive stat in their game last week was probably the Frogs holding Baylor to just 432 yards. I admit the more I look at TCU/Tech the more it looks like a tossup. You’ve just got to be careful betting against a Gary Patterson coached team at home when your not getting any points…Even though it could potentially be a bounceback game for the Horns, I’m also tempted to play Baylor. They played a very shabby game against TCU committing 6 turnovers. If they can clean that up at all they should be able to give Texas a tussle.

  7. Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

    Most of the numbers I look at point towards Iowa State, but I always respect GS when it comes to situational spots.

    I have been telling anyone that would listen that I thought WV would struggle in the Big 12 this year. They struggled in the Big East last year and backed into the Big East Championship. Then they destroy Clemson in the Orange Bowl and everyone forgets how difficult it was for them to get there. They also suffered a lot of defensive attrition from last year (6 starters including 3 NFL draft picks). I think K-State goes into Morgantown and pounds them on the ground. Big defensive edge for K-State in this one.

    Side with BS about TT – TCU. Defensive numbers are pretty close, but TT has a pretty substantial offense edge. Biggest concern would be TT’s mindset after blasting WV last week and as GS said, TCU won’t want to lose 2 in a row at home, so I would expect a good effort on their part. Still lean Red Raiders.

  8. GoSooners GoSooners says:

    Yeah, I’m probably going to leave the TT/TCU game alone. The one thing where the numbers don’t tell us anything is the Patterson factor. He can literally overnight get his team to play well and gather a little momentum off a win. TCU looked like an absolute mess after that Iowa State game, and not many gave them a chance against Baylor. I’ve heard some pretty good things about that Boykin kid. He’s got a hell of an arm if TT gives him the time to throw. If nothing else, the Baylor game probably boosted his confidence quite a bit. I’ll probably just leave the game alone. TT could have a little mometum too coming off that big win..As for KSU/WV, with the game being played at night in primetime, I may just stick to the over with two heisman candidates trying to one-up each other. Regardless of what happens in this game, I think WV is really going to struggle when they go on the road in the Big 12. OSU will match them point for point. And Iowa State will grow their grass about 6 inches high and hit them in the mouth with defense. I also think they lose to OU at home.

  9. SoonerBS says:

    GS, I think you are right, it will be a shootout in the KSU/WVU game this Saturday night. But, if it does, WVU will win in a shootout. K-State didn’t stop Oklahoma with their great defense, Oklahoma stopped themselves and the offensive coordinators didn’t put the best players on the field. As much as Bob Stoops wants to continue to blow that game off as a loss due to some untimely turnovers, I think the coaching staff is having hard time admitting they lost the game because of poor game scheming and personnel judgments. We saw how good Oklahoma can be whenever they have the right RBs in and they are not trying to hide defensive schemes because Texas is down the road (that came out this last week).

    Fact is, WVU is the best offense K-State has seen this season. Yes, WVU is learning about the “ups and downs” of playing in a good conference. But, I believe in “rebound” spots in football and this game is it being played at home. I’m not sure K-State floundered last week because it was a bad spot. I think Iowa State is a good team whenever they play at home and they get underrated.

    I know one thing, if K-State wins this weekend on the road at WVU, then they are the real deal and I am not sure anyone will stop them this season. Call it a gut-feeling, but I think K-State loses this one this weekend. I do have bouts with gas from time to time though.

  10. Xmas32 says:

    I think I’m going to fire on the WVU/KSU and not really think about it. There is no way on earth WVU can stop KSU on offense. The only thing that gives me a little pause is spread based concept teams always seem to struggle in the RZ to score TDs, with a total above 70, a couple FGs can sink you. KSU is a little unlucky to be going to Morgantown for a night game, that place will be insane.

    I don’t know what to make of this SMU/Houston line. It just looks like a big old fat trap. I do think that SMU has the superior D and might have the better run numbers, but they’ll have zero homefield advantage and Houston seems to be clicking on offense. Houston should’ve dropped 50+ on UAB last week, they had to settle for 6 FGs.

  11. GoSooners GoSooners says:

    Kansas State is a ball control team, but they aren’t afraid to get in shootouts with these spread teams and high powered offenses. Just look at last year against OSU 52-45, Texas A&M 53-50, Texas Tech 41-34. And with their added WR’s on offense I think KSU’s offense is even more potent to where they can trade points with anybody. The other side of the coin on this play is in many of these forums I’ve seen everybody on the over in this game. Not one under. The total has gone from 71 to 73. If you look at KSU’s stats so far this season, the two high powered offenses they have faced have been held under their offensive average. They held a Miami team who averages 440 ypg on offense to 262 yards. And they held an OU team who averages 467 ypg to 386 yards in Norman. So even the total scares me a little.

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