Pezgordo’s College Football Picks – YTD: 40-38 ATS
I went 6-5 on my posted picks, including Ole Miss at +11 and again at +14, but my newsletter picks didn’t do well as I went 0-2. The OU-Texas Tech U 57 hurt. I thought I was going to pull that one out, even after the disastrous 3rd quarter. But it wasn’t to be as TT scored a garbage TD w/ less than a minute to play in the game. Texas Tech held OU to just 380 yards, but kept giving the Sooners shorts fields off of turnovers, including a pick six.
I did not update my “Beating the Closing Line” segment last week, so I will try and update it later this week. Time permitting.
Stanford – Notre Dame U 45.5
I got this one yesterday before the news that Stanford leading receiver Ty Montgomery will most likely miss this game. The Cardinal have no one who can stretch the field and will be relying on a bad QB, their TE’s and their running game to score points against what looks like a very, very good Notre Dame defense.
Florida – 8
I’m rolling with the Gators again this week. I know this is a really bad spot for the Gators after having played LSU last week and with South Carolina coming up next week, but keep in mind that Vandy also just played a big, emotional game at Missouri last week. I expect this one to be a battle, but in the end talent should prevail. Vandy is struggling to stop the run (they allowed 507 yards in their two SEC losses to South Carolina and Georgia & they are allowing 212 ypg overall) and now they face a Florida team that just ran over LSU in the 4th quarter (ended the game with 25 straight running plays). Gators are also outscoring their opponents 41-0 in the 4th quarter. Gators pull away late, 24-10.
Iowa State +7
Wisconsin – Purdue U 51
I used this pick for our weekly BEST BET selection at College Football Zealots. We have hit 5 games in a row over there. Hopefully a solid effort from the Panthers pushes that to six.
The Vols are battle tested having played two top 10 teams (Florida & Georgia) and the team that just beat # 3 ranked Florida State (NC State). Not including FCS member Georgia State, Tennessee has played 4 teams with a combined record of 15-8. Miss State on the other hand hasn’t really played anyone. The combined record of the Bulldogs’ 4 FBS opponents is 6-16.
HC Dooley and the Vols really need a win in Starkville tomorrow and with an extra week to shore up the defense, I believe we will see Tennessee at their best. We know what they can do offensively and should really test a good, but hardly elite, Mississippi State defense. This game should come down to the wire and I like Tennessee’s chances of pulling off the minor upset.
Texas Tech +4
Better D getting points at home. Check, check & check. Texas Tech was embarrassed on national TV last week against OU while West Virginia pulled out a hard fought, emotional win in Austin. Time for the Mountaineers to do it all over again with the second of back-to-back road trips to the state of Texas. I’m sure it’ll be a piece of cake for HC Holgerson to get his troops ready to play at the same high emotional level they did last week ….. and the week before …. and …..
Moneyline Parlay: Texas A & M, UCLA, Ohio & Michigan (-107)
I was going to introduce this last week in the newsletter, but I ran out of time. I am 5-1 with these this year, and my only loss was the week Iowa was upset by a bad CMU team at home (go figure). Here is my strategy, I select a small favorite (usually a 7 to 10 point home favorite) that I really like to win outright that particular week, but for whatever reason I just don’t want to give the points. For example last week the “short” favorite I used was Maryland. I along with everyone else liked the Terps to beat Wake Forest, however I wasn’t as thrilled to give 6-7 points on a team that struggles to score. So I used the Terps as my short favorite in my ML parlay.
I than parlay the “short favorite” team with 3 or 4 “can’t lose” big favorites. The premise being that I more or less wanted to bet on the short favorite, but instead of giving any points, I am just taking them to win, so if they happen to lose, I was going to lose anyway. Of course where things can get totally discombobulated is when a “can’t lose” favorite gets upset, like in the case of Iowa. This is especially upsetting when your short favorite does in fact win, which in the case of that Iowa game was Penn State ML over Temple. URGH!
This week I am going to slightly deviate from the formula and use two short(er) favorites in the same parlay. Originally I was going to use UCLA as my short favorite, but they have since been bet up to -9, which makes them more expensive on the ML. So now I am going to use Texas A & M as my short favorite and parlay them with UCLA, Ohio and Michigan.
Fresno State +7.5
My last add of the week always seems to get me in trouble, but honestly, outside of the Blue turf mystique I cannot find any reason why Boise State should beat Fresno State today. If Bulldogs hang onto the ball they win this game outright.