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Pezgordo’s Week # 7 College football Picks

Pezgordo’s Week # 7 College football Picks

Pezgordo’s College Football Picks – YTD: 40-38 ATS 

I went 6-5 on my posted picks, including Ole Miss at +11 and again at +14, but my newsletter picks didn’t do well as I went 0-2. The OU-Texas Tech U 57 hurt. I thought I was going to pull that one out, even after the disastrous 3rd quarter. But it wasn’t to be as TT scored a garbage TD w/ less than a minute to play in the game. Texas Tech held OU to just 380 yards, but kept giving the Sooners shorts fields off of turnovers, including a pick six.

I did not update my “Beating the Closing Line” segment last week, so I will try and update it later this week. Time permitting.

Pezgordo’s Week # 5 College football Picks

Texas +3

Stanford – Notre Dame U 45.5

I got this one yesterday before the news that Stanford leading receiver Ty Montgomery will most likely miss this game. The Cardinal have no one who can stretch the field and will be relying on a bad QB, their TE’s and their running game to score points against what looks like a very, very good Notre Dame defense.

Florida – 8

I’m rolling with the Gators again this week. I know this is a really bad spot for the Gators after having played LSU last week and with South Carolina coming up next week, but keep in mind that Vandy also just played a big, emotional game at Missouri last week. I expect this one to be a battle, but in the end talent should prevail. Vandy is struggling to stop the run (they allowed 507 yards in their two SEC losses to South Carolina and Georgia & they are allowing 212 ypg overall) and now they face a Florida team that just ran over LSU in the 4th quarter (ended the game with 25 straight running plays). Gators are also outscoring their opponents 41-0 in the 4th quarter. Gators pull away late, 24-10.

Iowa State +7

Wisconsin – Purdue U 51

Pitt +3

I used this pick for our weekly BEST BET selection at College Football Zealots. We have hit 5 games in a row over there. Hopefully a solid effort from the Panthers pushes that to six.

Tennessee +3

The Vols are battle tested having played two top 10 teams (Florida & Georgia) and the team that just beat # 3 ranked Florida State (NC State). Not including FCS member Georgia State, Tennessee has played 4 teams with a combined record of 15-8. Miss State on the other hand hasn’t really played anyone. The combined record of the Bulldogs’ 4 FBS opponents is 6-16.

HC Dooley and the Vols really need a win in Starkville tomorrow and with an extra week to shore up the defense, I believe we will see Tennessee at their best. We know what they can do offensively and should really test a good, but hardly elite, Mississippi State defense. This game should come down to the wire and I like Tennessee’s chances of pulling off the minor upset.

Texas Tech +4

Better D getting points at home. Check, check & check. Texas Tech was embarrassed on national TV last week against OU while West Virginia pulled out a hard fought, emotional win in Austin. Time for the Mountaineers to do it all over again with the second of back-to-back road trips to the state of Texas. I’m sure it’ll be a piece of cake for HC Holgerson to get his troops ready to play at the same high emotional level they did last week ….. and the week before …. and …..

Moneyline Parlay: Texas A & M, UCLA, Ohio & Michigan (-107)

I was going to introduce this last week in the newsletter, but I ran out of time. I am 5-1 with these this year, and my only loss was the week Iowa was upset by a bad CMU team at home (go figure). Here is my strategy, I select a small favorite (usually a 7 to 10 point home favorite) that I really like to win outright that particular week, but for whatever reason I just don’t want to give the points. For example last week the “short” favorite I used was Maryland. I along with everyone else liked the Terps to beat Wake Forest, however I wasn’t as thrilled to give 6-7 points on a team that struggles to score. So I used the Terps as my short favorite in my ML parlay.

I than parlay the “short favorite” team with 3 or 4 “can’t lose” big favorites. The premise being that I more or less wanted to bet on the short favorite, but instead of giving any points, I am just taking them to win, so if they happen to lose, I was going to lose anyway. Of course where things can get totally discombobulated is when a “can’t lose” favorite gets upset, like in the case of Iowa. This is especially upsetting when your short favorite does in fact win, which in the case of that Iowa game was Penn State ML over Temple. URGH!

This week I am going to slightly deviate from the formula and use two short(er) favorites in the same parlay. Originally I was going to use UCLA as my short favorite, but they have since been bet up to -9, which makes them more expensive on the ML. So now I am going to use Texas A & M as my short favorite and parlay them with UCLA, Ohio and Michigan.

Fresno State +7.5

My last add of the week always seems to get me in trouble, but honestly, outside of the Blue turf mystique I cannot find any reason why Boise State should beat Fresno State today. If Bulldogs hang onto the ball they win this game outright.

 

 

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12 Responses to “Pezgordo’s Week # 7 College football Picks”

  1. SabertStxVii SabertStxVii says:

    Pez,

    Really like the plays so far. As usual, I typically avoid the Big 12, but Texas seems like the right side from all I’ve looked at.

    Ironically, you predicted the same score as Phil Steele for the Florida vs Vandy game! I like this play quite a bit. How does Vandy score here? Even if it is a bad spot for Florida, they know this is a must win game since SC could be taking a loss this weekend. This will put them in the drivers seat for the SEC East.

    • Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

      Sabert, Texas – OU looks like it’ll be a competitive one this year. Sooners still struggling on the OL and in the running game. Could see this one turning into a defensive battle.

      Hopefully Phil and I are locked in to the SEC this week. I am still leaning Vols +3 too, but their defensive short comings have me hesitating.

      • SoonerBS says:

        The two keys I see for a Texas victory this Saturday is that Texas should be able to put some pressure on Landry Jones and Texas will run all over Oklahoma. Landry Jones is absolutely horrible under pressure, so this will cause the offensive rhythm to get out of sync. Defensively, I have not seen Oklahoma stop the run consistently enough to have any confidence in them. Texas can, and will, run the ball every chance they get in this game. I just don’t see a lot of positives on the Oklahoma side.

        • Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

          BS, I think if OU can’t get their running game going on Saturday, the Texas DE’s will tee off on Jones.

          Should be a good game. I like getting the points in what looks like a coin flip.

  2. Bobbyjones2 says:

    Pez,

    The stanford line jumped out at me as it seems high, imo. Given Nunes has struggled, and Taylor is not the same back in 8 in the box, the Stanford defense is a stout against the run and more than a td seems to be giving ND too much respect. Stanford s defense stops the run, which is what ND wants to do. ND defense also stops the run, which again, is what Stanford relies upon. Neither passing offense is clicking ( Montgomery has 168 yards on the year, not to mention some killer drops, hell maybe the back up is better”
    I see two tough defenses, matched up against 2 below average offenses and asking ND to cover 8 is too much, imo. Everyone seems to like ND is this spot sans I. Taking into account the obvious coaching mis match that Stanford will face, I would like your .02 on this game. Mahalo

    • Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

      BJ2, we are definitely on the same page this week. For most of the reasons you pointed out, I really like the under. However, I am also in agreement that Stanford +8 (7.5 now?) appears to have value.

      I really wish I hadn’t been sleeping on the job and missed the opening lines on this game (49 … unreal & 9.5).

      As you suggest, the loss of Montgomery really isn’t that big of a deal in terms of what is/was going to happen in the Stanford passing game. He definitely was prone to dropped passes.

      • Bobbyjones2 says:

        I appreciate your input.

        Hell I saw 9 sunday night, and i waited thinking it might hit 10. Everyone big on the Irish right now. Almost everyone.

        Good luck with your plays. I too, believe Gators wear down Vandy.

        • Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

          10 would have probably swayed me to go w/ the Cardinal. That is actually the number I come up with. But asking a team w/ an offense like ND’s to cover DD is asking a lot.

          But this will definitely be the best defense Stanford has seen all season and Nunes was ineffective his last time on the road against a less talented UW defense.

          If Gators don’t have one of those games where they gift Vandy a few scores, tough to see Vandy hanging 4 quarters.

  3. alkimyst says:

    Love me some PITT!!

    • Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

      Going to use Pitt as my pick at College Football Zealots this week. I’ve won 5 in a row so hoping the Panthers bring their A game (the one they played against VT).

  4. Spencer says:

    Good card this weekend, Pez! I was tempted to take Tennessee too, they have the talent to win that game outright. Troy proved earlier in the season that you can pass on this Miss St team. Ultimately I shied away due to Bray’s tendency to force throws, especially under pressure. Mississippi St has an opportunistic secondary that will be chomping at the bit for him to make a mistake. If he does make a few bad throws, I’m not sure if Tennessee can recover on the road. Good luck this weekend!

    • Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

      Thanks Spencer. I’ve been debating the Vols all week before making the commitment earlier today. Should be a close one.

      I like your Oregon State pick and haven’t yet eliminated it from my list. They are the overall better team even w/o Mannion and this game should be a low scoring defensive battle.

      BOL this weekend.

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