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jimmyshivers Week 7 ACC Football Picks

jimmyshivers Week 7 ACC Football Picks

Well, at least the ACC made it until October this time with their National Championship aspirations intact.  Aside from FSU’s season killing loss on Saturday night in Raleigh, we also saw BC lose to winless Army, a supposedly resurgent Miami get trounced by Notre Dame and Virginia Tech get run off the field by a UNC squad with nothing to play for but pride.  The ACC:  Where Mediocrity Happens.

On the handicapping side, I turned in a 4-5 week that was very close to 6-3.  We had Maryland missing an extra point with 5 minutes to go that would have gotten us the cover (up 5, it was terrible football strategy to go for 1, but that’s beside the point).  Georgia Tech was actually up to start the 4th quarter but allowed 17 unanswered including a garbage time TD by Clemson instead of running out of the clock.  These kind of games will even out this season hopefully, but it’s been a bit frustrating.  I did have several solid victories with a low-scoring NC State affair, Miami’s continuing defensive struggles and a shootout in the BC-Army game.   As always, onward and upward..

YTD:  19-28  -25.19 units

Week 7 ACC card:

**** North Carolina / Miami Over 68.5 -110
*** Florida St Seminoles -27.5 -108
*** Duke – Virginia Tech Under 54.5 -108

*** Virginia Cavaliers -2 -105

*** Louisiana St Tigers -3 +100

 

Write-ups:

**** North Carolina / Miami Over 68.5 -110

Think this total is kept a little low by some inflated UNC defensive statistics; in 3 of their games they’ve allowed 0,0 and 6 points.  North Carolina has looked decent so far this year against a slate of teams suited to their strengths; nobody they’ve played can throw the football around like Ryan Williams and this Miami group can.  Carolina’s opponents are only throwing the ball 54% of the time (105th nationally) while Miami throws the ball 59% of the time (11th nationally).  In those limited attempts North Carolina has allowed 245 ypg and 62% completions so i expect Miami to be able to throw the football here.

And it’s likely that their going to need to. It’s just another brutal match-up for a Miami defense that is very young and really struggling with consistency.  Carolina runs a really up-tempo offense that takes advantage of thin defenses with a heavy play volume that limits opportunities to substitute players.  Miami brings up the rear in many major defensive categories (in bottom 20 nationally in yards a game, points a game, yards per play and 3rd down %, among others) and will struggle going against an elite offensive line thats protecting an accurate, smart QB with an absolute gamebreaker running the ball.  I just struggle to see Miami limiting this big play offense all day long.

What we have here is a North Carolina team coming off a big win traveling down to Miami in a bounceback spot (at 3-0 in ACC play, the coastal division is in their hands).  Larry Fedora has already shown to be a coach who likes to score points in bunches once his teams gain a schematic advantage (7 of 12 halfs this year have seen the Heels score 20 or more points) and their offense has the balance to really keep this Miami defense guessing.  I look for both teams to move the ball well here and this has all the makings of a shootout.  I also feel UNC covers the number here.  Carolina 47, Miami 37

*** Florida St Seminoles -27.5 -108

I’ve used this BC team for a lot of overs this year as I’ve liked their match-ups, but I’m getting off that train in Tallahassee.  FSU is an awful match-up for many teams but for a BC team that is really bad in the trenches (yards per carry for – against = -2.3, last in ACC) they are going to have a hard time doing anything up front.  Boston just doesn’t have the athletes on the edges to consistently make any plays for or against these FSU skill players.   It’s also worth a thought that this BC team could lay down for a lame duck coach in a season going nowhere.  Talent wise, this may be the biggest discrepancy in the entire league.

Here I look for a bounce-back effort from an FSU team that is now on a 0-3 ATS run and will be stressing to FINISH here after letting a 16 point lead slip away in Raleigh.  Florida St feasts on a really bad and one-dimensional BC offensive line and Rettig just isn’t mobile enough to make plays with his feet against a swarming FSU front.  Seminole ground game should be able to run downhill all day which will keep the points coming long after the game is decided.  This one should wind up like the Wake Forest game here.  Noles 52  Eagles 10

*** Duke – Virginia Tech Under 54.5 -108

Defensively, this looks like a pretty good match-up for both sides.  The Duke defense is a bit undersized as usual, but they’ve fared well against the run (3.7 ypc allowed this year) and are facing a VT offense that just isn’t very good at anything.  Duke’s biggest depth issues are in the secondary, and a VT passing attack that completes just over 50% of their passes and doesn’t have any gamebreakers at wideout will struggle to consistently exploit them.  The Hokies problems for me start up front, the offensive line hasn’t been getting much push (3.7 ypc) against anyone except a bad Bowling Green defense.  And now their missing their best guard as well as his backup.  I just see VT having very limited success running the ball against a Duke front that matches up well and intermittent success throwing the football.

Virginia Tech’s defense is much maligned, and for good reason.  They gave up at least 495 yards in all 3 losses and often really struggled defensively with gap fits and tackling.  Surprisingly, VT has really struggled against the run, allowing 4.8 ypc to FBS teams and getting absolutely destroyed on the ground by both Pitt and North Carolina.  Duke is a good match-up for a secondary that has played well for the most part though (50% passing completions, 6.9 yards per completion), they don’t try to run the ball much and will try a lot of short and intermediate to attempt to get guys in space on the edges and hope they can break some tackles.

I like this match-up for VT, they have decent athletes in the secondary and  Beamer has stated that they will likely play less nickel defense this week which will allow more of Bud Foster’s traditionally effective blitz packages to be utilized.  I expect VT to have more success up front here in pressuring the pocket, which should serve to disrupt the rhythm-based Duke passing attack.

Duke’s offense has looked really prolific at times, but they’ve played some pretty bad defenses (only Stanfords YPG allowed stats are in the top 50 nationally) and have played every game but the Stanford game within the state of North Carolina.  Now they take this offense into a very hostile environment against a defense with everything to prove, and I think they struggle.  I lean VT – the points, but just can’t trust that offense enough to get it done.  The under covers us here if the Hokies offense can’t get into gear.  Virginia Tech 27, Duke 14.

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5 Responses to “jimmyshivers Week 7 ACC Football Picks”

  1. Trentmoney says:

    I’m on FSU as well

    good luck

    • jimmyshivers jimmyshivers says:

      Congrats on an awesome week Trent! You deserve it dude. Good spot here for a far superior team to take out some frustrations. What I like here is that FSU should have a ton of success just running the football; BC is very soft up front and won’t be able to stop these guys from running downhill as their depth asserts itself. You have to wonder at what point this year BC waves the flag and starts mailing games in, the loss last week was a heartbreaker for a team desperate for a W

  2. Xmas32 says:

    On the UNC overs with you, my guy has FSU locked at -28 so the play loses some luster for me. I just need to see FSU take someone to the woodshed before I pull the trigger on them again.

    • jimmyshivers jimmyshivers says:

      Fair enough, though I think FSU just went through their toughest part of the schedule and will enjoy getting their knuckles bloody this week. BC is Wake Forest with no running game, slightly better passing attack and a much worse defense. BOL with your action, lets get that over early and easily..

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