It was a pretty good week for TSE cappers as we went 21-16 on posted plays and 4-2 on our newsletter consensus picks, bringing us to 19-11 the last 5 weeks with consensus picks.
Below are some of the games that we are considering betting on this week and a few reasons why we like a particular side or total. Please feel free to join in the discussion and offer your feedback, we would definitely like to hear about how you are viewing a particular side or total.
ASU – Colorado U 57
The UCLA – CU total was 59/60 and the final score was 42-14. Now we have a much better defense with Arizona State and the total is only 3 points off the UCLA total. UCLA has the statistically better offense than ASU and they are more explosive.
I crashed and burned with the Longhorns last week. I definitely misjudged their defense. However, I still question OU’s ability to run the football. Despite being gashed by their last two opponents, Texas could be the potential running dog.
Slowly but surely the Badgers seem to be getting back on track. Purdue’s defense was terrible against Michigan and their offense was even worse. The Wisconsin defense has played well all season and is as good, if not better than the Michigan defense that held the Boilers to 213 yards and 1 TD courtesy of a short field.
Stanford – Notre Dame U 46
Two excellent defenses with mediocre offenses going at it in South Bend this weekend. Neither QB is very good and both teams lack offensive playmakers. But both D’s are loaded with All-Americans and future NFL prospects. There are never any guarantees with totals, especially unders. Shorts fields, special teams and/or defensive TDs, etc can kill it. But these two defenses are definitely light years ahead of either offense.
Utah is not the team we all thought they might be this season. I just can’t see their lethargic offense keeping up with UCLA. USC gifted them a 14 point lead last week and a charity TD on the final play of the game. Other than that they were able to generate 7 points at home against the Trojans.
Ole Miss -4.5
I jumped on Ole Miss early at -2.5, which I think this is a gift, and I see value on this all the way up to double digits. This team is still hungry, looking for their first SEC win this season (and first in a really long time), and they won’t be taking Auburn lightly. Coach Freeze apologized and took 100% blame for the loss and players said it was a pretty special moment. Freeze said to them that they did their job, and any coach that is given a 10pt lead in the 4th and 6 turnovers in the game should be able to deliver. No one at Ole Miss will be taken Auburn lightly. I think Ole Miss, a team with some offense and a very aggressive D (do you guys believe me yet?), will score quite a bit and keep Auburn’s lethargic offense from doing much at all.
Jumped on Bama -17.5 too. I really don’t see how Mizzou will muster up some scores in this one, but they only need 1 or 2 to make me nervous with Bama covering, because I don’t trust their offense if Mizzou doesn’t give them short fields. Buttttt, with that being said, James Franklin won’t be playing, which may or may not be a good thing. Corbin is replacing him, and is completing just 50% of his passes. Goodluck against Bama dude, I see the short fields and Bama TDs already. Giving Saban time off the bye to game plan and I think this one could be a huge blowout. Finally, players are smoking 3 nights before a game, for Mizzou.
Really surprised the Florida line didn’t go up to double digits. Their defense is super solid, and I don’t see how Vandy scores honestly. I know a lot of you may consider this a let down game, but if you believe in that, you could say similar for Vandy off their first SEC win. At a TD though, I think Florida has lots of value, but haven’t looked into it deeply yet. The offense is just getting better, and even if they only score mid 20′s points, I don’t see Vandy doing too much here.
I like Wisco at a PK on the road at Purdue. Purdue’s defense was exposed by Michigan (and as I thought, were overhyped for how they played against an offenseless ND team) and I think Wisco may actually be figuring it out a bit on offense finally. For a Wisconsin team, this is a must win game in the Big 10.
Texas +3.5 (hook)
I’ve already played this game and will have a writeup tomorrow. Texas is a potential running dog in this spot. And as has always been the case, it’s never a bad idea taking the points in this heated rivalry.
Texas Tech/WV (Over 77.5) or Texas Tech +4 or more
This is a high total, but I feel that TT will have much more success this week in the passing game against a much weaker pass defense (392 ypg) than the Red Raiders faced last week vs OU (156 ypg). If WV is tired at all from the travel two weeks in a row, it will more than likely show up in their defense.
Colorado State (+20.5)
I know they aren’t a very good team, but they are better in every phase of the game than the Hawaii team that SDST faced last week. After watching that team two weeks in a row, I’ve come to the conclusion that they are in a dead heat with Tulane for worst team of the year. Norm Chow is lost with that team. They made SDST look better than they really are. CSU has faced a tough schedule the last 3 weeks, and SDST will be a little softer spot for them. And getting more points.
Ole Miss (-4.5)
I’m not impressed at all with Auburn. I think they are on a downward spiral. Two teams going opposite directions. Plus a big coaching mismatch despite Freeze’s temporary insanity of going for it on 4th down last week when he had the lead. But he just wants to get his team their first conference win. And this looks like as good a spot as any. Chizik needs to junk his pro style offense. It isn’t working with QB Frazier, who was drafted for and has played in the spread for the last 4 years.
Oregon State will be the popular play this week. But BYU is the better defensive team getting points at home. BYU has only been the home dog twice in the last 5 years. And this is the kind of trench warfare game they can win.
Va Tech is eventually going to get sick of losing and take it out on somebody. But if your just going by the numbers game, if you didn’t tell me who was who, I would have told you Duke is the better team here. What really pisses me off about Duke is I had them listed as one of my “spread beating” teams at the beginning of the season, and have bet against them twice this season and lost. Well, those days are over. It’s either going to be Duke or nothing. And right now they have a nice 4 game ATS streak going. It wouldn’t surprise me if they extended it. I always look for these mini-runs during the season. And Duke is a good candidate for going on a 5 or 6 game run in a weak conference.
New Mexico -3
Yeah, why not. Like I said Hawaii is just awful. There are no redeeming qualities at all in that team. I thought they would play much better this past week against a softer defense. But if anything they looked worse. Norm Chow is another coach who is trying to completely change a team’s offense who has been running the same one since I don’t know when. He’s got a good 2 or 3 year renovation in front of him. As for New Mexcio, they are one dimensional, but they can flat out run the ball. Which could be all they need against this team.
I missed my window on this game. I like 7 or less much more than 8. But they’ve had 2 weeks to rest from their WV debacle, and to prepare for TCU. I just don’t think TCU will be able to match up with Baylor’s wide split offense and some skill players who are much much more athletic than the ISU skill players that TCU faced last week. I’m also considering the over here. Hey, it’s Baylor. Need I say more?
Washington State +7.5
That was a nice surprise win by Cal last week. But it still doesn’t help the road woes that this team has had over the years. Especially when they are the favorites. The bottom line here is the offensive and defensive numbers of these two teams are almost dead even. So there is a little value with WSU.
Kent State -1.5
I’ve been watching this team for the last couple of weeks. And I’ve been pretty impressed. They already have probably the best defense in the MAC. But now their offense is really starting to click. They’ve won 3 in a row ATS, and look like another team that is going on a mini-ATS run. Something tells me they aren’t done. Army is getting a lot of love by the linesmakers because of their win over BC. But BC is the worst coached team in the ACC, and Spaziani is more than likely on his way out. Then he can go back to his old job as a mafia hitman. Sorry, he just looks more like a mob figure to me than a coach.
I don’t know if I’m going to go against SC. But they are already getting a lot of love from the media this week. LSU has the better defense playing at home. When was the last time you saw a team who gives up only 200 ypg lose two games in a row? Plus a tough spot for SC with the more important game played next week.
Iowa State +7
This is a game that i had as a presseason play on game. ISU normally gives KSU fits every season. They haven’t lost by more than 8 in the last 5 years. KSU also has a habit of playing poorly the next week after playing their in-state rivals Kansas. They’ve lost straight up after that game for the last 4 years. I wish I was getting more line value here. But it might possibly still break the 7 by the end of the week.
Please let us know what you think about any of these games and/or any other game you would like to discuss.