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Who to bet on Week # 7: Sides & Totals to consider

Who to bet on Week # 7: Sides & Totals to consider

Who to bet on Week # 7: Sides & Totals to consider

It was a pretty good week for TSE cappers as we went 21-16 on posted plays and 4-2 on our newsletter consensus picks, bringing us to 19-11 the last 5 weeks with consensus picks.

Below are some of the games that we are considering betting on this week and a few reasons why we like a particular side or total. Please feel free to join in the discussion and offer your feedback, we would definitely like to hear about how you are viewing a particular side or total.

Pezgordo

ASU – Colorado U 57

The UCLA – CU total was 59/60 and the final score was 42-14. Now we have a much better defense with Arizona State and the total is only 3 points off the UCLA total. UCLA has the statistically better offense than ASU and they are more explosive.

Texas +3

I crashed and burned with the Longhorns last week. I definitely misjudged their defense. However, I still question OU’s ability to run the football. Despite being gashed by their last two opponents, Texas could be the potential running dog.

Wisconsin PK

Slowly  but surely the Badgers seem to be getting back on track. Purdue’s defense was terrible against Michigan and their offense was even worse. The Wisconsin defense has played well all season and is as good, if not better than the Michigan defense that held the Boilers to 213 yards and 1 TD courtesy of a short field.

Stanford – Notre Dame U 46

Two excellent defenses with mediocre offenses going at it in South Bend this weekend. Neither QB is very good and both teams lack offensive playmakers. But both D’s are loaded with All-Americans and future NFL prospects. There are never any guarantees with totals, especially unders. Shorts fields, special teams and/or defensive TDs, etc can kill it. But these two defenses are definitely light years ahead of either offense.

UCLA -8

Utah is not the team we all thought they might be this season. I just can’t see their lethargic offense keeping up with UCLA. USC gifted them a 14 point lead last week and a charity TD on the final play of the game. Other than that they were able to generate 7 points at home against the Trojans.

 


 

SabertStxVii

Ole Miss -4.5

I jumped on Ole Miss early at -2.5, which I think this is a gift, and I see value on this all the way up to double digits. This team is still hungry, looking for their first SEC win this season (and first in a really long time), and they won’t be taking Auburn lightly. Coach Freeze apologized and took 100% blame for the loss and players said it was a pretty special moment. Freeze said to them that they did their job, and any coach that is given a 10pt lead in the 4th and 6 turnovers in the game should be able to deliver. No one at Ole Miss will be taken Auburn lightly. I think Ole Miss, a team with some offense and a very aggressive D (do you guys believe me yet?), will score quite a bit and keep Auburn’s lethargic offense from doing much at all.

Alabama -21

Jumped on Bama -17.5 too. I really don’t see how Mizzou will muster up some scores in this one, but they only need 1 or 2 to make me nervous with Bama covering, because I don’t trust their offense if Mizzou doesn’t give them short fields. Buttttt, with that being said, James Franklin won’t be playing, which may or may not be a good thing. Corbin is replacing him, and is completing just 50% of his passes. Goodluck against Bama dude, I see the short fields and Bama TDs already. Giving Saban time off the bye to game plan and I think this one could be a huge blowout. Finally, players are smoking 3 nights before a game, for Mizzou.

Florida -7.5

Really surprised the Florida line didn’t go up to double digits. Their defense is super solid, and I don’t see how Vandy scores honestly. I know a lot of you may consider this a let down game, but if you believe in that, you could say similar for Vandy off their first SEC win. At a TD though, I think Florida has lots of value, but haven’t looked into it deeply yet. The offense is just getting better, and even if they only score mid 20′s points, I don’t see Vandy doing too much here.

Wisconsin PK

I like Wisco at a PK on the road at Purdue. Purdue’s defense was exposed by Michigan (and as I thought, were overhyped for how they played against an offenseless ND team) and I think Wisco may actually be figuring it out a bit on offense finally. For a Wisconsin team, this is a must win game in the Big 10.

 


 

GoSooners

 

Texas +3.5 (hook)

I’ve already played this game  and will have a writeup tomorrow. Texas is a potential running dog in this spot. And as has always been the case, it’s never a bad idea taking the points in this heated rivalry.

Texas Tech/WV (Over 77.5) or Texas Tech +4 or more

This is a high total, but I feel that TT will have much more success this week in the passing game against a much weaker pass defense (392 ypg) than the Red Raiders faced last week vs OU (156 ypg). If WV is tired at all from the travel two weeks in a row, it will more than likely show up in their defense.

Colorado State (+20.5)

I know they aren’t a very good team, but they are better in every phase of the game than the Hawaii team that SDST faced last week. After watching that team two weeks in a row, I’ve come to the conclusion that they are in a dead heat with Tulane for worst team of the year. Norm Chow is lost with that team. They made SDST look better than they really are.  CSU has faced a tough schedule the last 3 weeks, and SDST will be a little softer spot for them. And getting more points.

Ole Miss (-4.5)

I’m not impressed at all with Auburn. I think they are on a downward spiral. Two teams going opposite directions. Plus a big coaching mismatch despite Freeze’s temporary insanity of going for it on 4th down last week when he had the lead. But he just wants to get his team their first conference win. And this looks like as good a spot as any. Chizik needs to junk his pro style offense. It isn’t working with QB Frazier, who was drafted for and has played in the spread for the last 4 years.

BYU -2.5

Oregon State will be the popular play this week. But BYU is the better defensive team getting points at home. BYU has only been the home dog twice in the last 5 years. And this is the kind of trench warfare game they can win.

Duke +10

Va Tech is eventually going to get sick of losing and take it out on somebody. But if your just going by the numbers game, if you didn’t tell me who was who, I would have told you Duke is the better team here. What really pisses me off about Duke is I had them listed as one of my “spread beating” teams at the beginning of the season, and have bet against them twice this season and lost. Well, those days are over. It’s either going to be Duke or nothing. And right now they have a nice 4 game ATS streak going. It wouldn’t surprise me if they extended it. I always look for these mini-runs during the season. And Duke is a good candidate for going on a 5 or 6 game run in a weak conference.

New Mexico -3

Yeah, why not. Like I said Hawaii is just awful. There are no redeeming qualities at all in that team. I thought they would play much better this past week against a softer defense. But if anything they looked worse. Norm Chow is another coach who is trying to completely change a team’s offense who has been running the same one since I don’t know when. He’s got a good 2 or 3 year renovation in front of him. As for New Mexcio, they are one dimensional, but they can flat out run the ball. Which could be all they need against this team.

Baylor -8

I missed my window on this game. I like 7 or less much more than 8. But they’ve had 2 weeks to rest from their WV debacle, and to prepare for TCU. I just don’t think TCU will be able to match up with Baylor’s wide split offense and some skill players who are much much more athletic than the ISU skill players that TCU faced last week. I’m also considering the over here. Hey, it’s Baylor. Need I say more?

Washington State +7.5

That was a nice surprise win by Cal last week. But it still doesn’t help the road woes that this team has had over the years. Especially when they are the favorites. The bottom line here is the offensive and defensive numbers of these two teams are almost dead even. So there is a little value with WSU.

Kent State -1.5

I’ve been watching this team for the last couple of weeks. And I’ve been pretty impressed. They already have probably the best defense in the MAC. But now their offense is really starting to click. They’ve won 3 in a row ATS, and look like another team that is going on a mini-ATS run. Something tells me they aren’t done. Army is getting a lot of love by the linesmakers because of their win over BC. But BC is the worst coached team in the ACC, and Spaziani is more than likely on his way out. Then he can go back to his old job as a mafia hitman. Sorry, he just looks more like a mob figure to me than a coach.

LSU -2.5

I don’t know if I’m going to go against SC. But they are already getting a lot of love from the media this week. LSU has the better defense playing at home. When was the last time you saw a team who gives up only 200 ypg lose two games in a row? Plus a tough spot for SC with the more important game played next week.

Iowa State +7

This is a game that i had as a presseason play on game. ISU normally gives KSU fits every season. They haven’t lost by more than 8 in the last 5 years. KSU also has a habit of playing poorly the next week after playing their in-state rivals Kansas. They’ve lost straight up after that game for the last 4 years. I wish I was getting more line value here. But it might possibly still break the 7 by the end of the week.


 

Please let us know what you think about any of these games and/or any other game you would like to discuss.

 

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17 Responses to “Who to bet on Week # 7: Sides & Totals to consider”

  1. Seth says:

    My leans this week at first glance are:

    Stanford +9
    Washington +12.5
    Ohio State -17
    Florida -7.5
    Wisconsin +1
    BYU -2.5

    • Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

      Seth, I wan’t to take a look at that Stanford game too. That’s a lot of points in what could be a defensive battle.

      I still haven’t seen a line or total for BYU – Oregon State. I bet they can’t line that total low enough w/ both starting QBs out. Anything around 45 and I’d be all over it.

  2. Wes says:

    Guys
    Wisconsin looked good against Illinois but they played the worst team in the big10 at home. They aren’t on track, they struggled until the Illinois defense ran out of gas. They looked good against Nebraska but everyone knows nebraska’s defense Is swiss cheese. I really like purdue in this game. They will shut Down the badgers and run away from them before the 4th quarter. Just my opinion obviously and like the other picks.

  3. GoSooners GoSooners says:

    Wes, I’m of the same opinion as you about Wisky/Purdue. I played Michigan last week because they had two weeks to prepare for Purdue, and the superior coaching staff and QB. That’s not the case at all this week. I expect a very close game.

  4. GoSooners GoSooners says:

    Sorry guys, I could have sworn I saw Wisky at -9 on one of the boards. At PK it’s a much much much different story.

  5. Snow says:

    Definitely like the Alabama, Ole Miss, and Florida picks and the Stanford-ND under here.

    My other early picks:
    K-State -7 vs. Iowa state
    West Virginia -5 vs. Texas Tech
    Baylor -8 vs. TCU

    Looking to the thursday games I like WKU -3 over Troy.

  6. Trentmoney says:

    i’m going u51 on NW/Minny

    good luck

    • Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

      I like it. Did you check Wisconsin – Purdue U 51? Less offensive firepower than NW/Minny and +/- equal D’s.

      • Trentmoney says:

        when i made the play nw/min was 51 and wisc/pur was 50.5 so i wanted to play with the key number…also montee ball and aberderras are the best offensive players between the 4 teams so that helped sway me between the two games…but it’s definitely worth a look

        also took a piece of fsu -27.5
        good luck

  7. Winston says:

    T,

    I like LSU, Rutgers (Again) and really like USC. If you take away the first two plays of that UTAH game they outscored them by over 30 points. Washington has beaten them the last two times in Seattle and USC has been pointing towards this game and will come prepared. Lane Kiffin is a lousy coach however and I hope he just lets his team play. The public is on Washington and I like that very much. IAlabama is 2-3 ATL with both covers coming on the road. I think the team has grown tired of hearing about South Carolina and Florida and will drop 50 on Missouri this week.

    Winston

  8. Winston says:

    My Opinion,

    UCLA -8
    Oregon State +6 (BYU won’t score more than 14)
    OL Miss -4
    OKlahoma -3 (buy the hook)
    Rutgers -7 (best bet)

    Good Luck in week 7!

    • Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

      Winston, I’m going the other way w/ OU-Texas. I see Sabert is on Ole Miss again, but now they are the favorite, so they seem to be losing their value. They should have won last week, so at least they should still be hungry looking for their first SEC win.

  9. Seth says:

    Does anyone like Iowa at +10 at Michigan State?

    • Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

      I have it on my list and will take a closer look at it later today. Iowa is a potential running dog in this game and I always like getting DD against teams that struggle to score. As the total (40.5) suggests, it could be a defensive battle. Always good to have points in that situation.

      • Seth says:

        Yeah that was my original thinking. I am reluctant because Iowa has scoring issues as well, and Michigan State is coming off of a bad game at Indiana.

  10. Winston says:

    Oregon State/BYU

    Like Oregon State in this spot +6 a ton. They have flown under the radar and BYU can’t score. The only thing that could lose this game is QB Riley (26 yrs old and three kids)having a big game but I believe he is still injured based on everything I have read out of BYU. Oregon State has a great defense and is overshadowed by big brother in Eugene and gets no ink. The under is probably a good bet in this game also. I have seen this to many times over the years, key player gets hurt and other players step up. This works with good teams and a good coach which OSU has (Riley). Think they will win straight up.

    Winman

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