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jimmyshivers Week 6 ACC Football Picks

jimmyshivers Week 6 ACC Football Picks

jimmyshivers Week 6 ACC Football Picks

15-23 -19.37 units

Here in week 6, we continue to devalue our preseason prognostications and start to rely more and more on what we’ve seen on the field this year.  Obviously for me it hasn’t gone the way that I wanted it to for the opening third of the year, but I am confident I will bounce back if I stick with my handicapping guns.


This is a great time to look at the teams who have been the beneficiaries of some great spots and opponents let-downs and look to go against them.  It’s also a good time to really dig into the box scores and really get a feel for where teams are weak and how well their opponents can exploit their holes.

Week 5 ACC Plays:
**** Maryland Terrapins -5.5 -108
*** Virginia Cavaliers ML +105
*** Boston College / Army Over 57.5 -110
*** Notre Dame Fighting Irish Team Total Over 33.5 -110
*** Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +10.5 -105
*** Virginia Tech Hokies +5.5 -105
** NC S TT Under 18.5 -110
* NC St / Florida St Under 54 -105
** Syracuse / Pittsburgh Over 59 -110

Think this is a really good spot for the Terrapins, getting an extra week to prepare for that tricky Wake blocking scheme and to just get healthier overall.  That their going against a Wake Forest team that is both banged up and really struggling is just a bonus.

This Wake defense just isn’t playing like Jim Grobe and co. hoped it would.  Wake’s plan was to have the defense carry them early on as the offense adjusted to a new o-line and 7 lost starters, but they’ve been disapointing (5.1 ypc allowed and 63% passing).  Maryland’s offense has really struggled at times, but I think they have a solid chance to win the battle at the LOS and establish the run game.  Maryland has had turnover problems (-1.7 TO ratio a game vs FBS schools) but if they can establish the run game here it takes the pressure off the rapidly improving Perry Hills and allows them to pick their spots to stretch the field with the electric Stefon Diggs.

Offensively, Wake looks to be in a tough spot. This Maryland defensive front is one of the top groups in the ACC (2.3 ypc allowed so far) and is going against a Demon Deacon line that has struggled to block everyone but Army and Duke.  Wake will be missing the guy who is easily their best and most disruptive skill position player (WR Michael Campanaro) which should really make their offense much less dynamic and put a heavy burden on QB Tanner Price.  I like Price, but he doesn’t have a lot of playmakers without Campanaro and he’s going against a good Maryland D who will be able to get pressure.  To me it just doesn’t add up to consistent success moving the football.

My feeling on this Terp team is that overall they are still a bit undervalued.  This line is short due to Maryland’s struggles to move the football, but I see an offense that underwent some growing pains early on (2 deep is loaded with freshmen) but is gaining confidence in their freshman QB and learning to move the football .  It’s the deep and fast teams in this league that will trouble a Maryland team that isn’t very fast, and Wake doesn’t fit that profile.  The bottom line to me is these look like two teams going in opposite directions.  Maryland continues their bounce-back campaign with a solid DD victory here.  28-14 Terps.

 

*** Virginia Cavaliers ML +105

Virginia has had some tough luck ATS to start the year and I think it’s creating some line value this week.  Duke has only closed as an ACC favorite 3 times under Coach Cutcliffe (1-1-1 ATS) and is coming into this game with the health of their QB a big question mark (listed as gametime decision with a sore elbow, not practicing).  Renfree is a 3 year starter and has played really well this year, if his elbow limits his effectiveness it will really hinder this offense.  Duke doesn’t stretch the field with deep passes, but they do throw a lot of bubble passes and quick hitches that rely on timing.  Look for UVA and their massive defensive line to try and put some heat on Renfree/Connette and take them out of their comfort zone.  Duke won’t be able to run the ball, so if Duke can’t block UVA they will really struggle to find space to operate and move the football in their dink-and-dunk style.

There’s something to be said for motivation here; I believe that UVA being listed as the underdog here is a rallying point for this team.  Adding in the overdue QB change (Alabama xfer Philip Sims for Mike Rocco) and I see a team with a lot to play for.  UVA was thought to be a power running team this year with Parks and Jones both back, but they haven’t gotten a lot of push upfront against a solid group of defensive lines early this year.  UVA didn’t really get a chance to run too much last week against LT, but it looked like they were starting to get traction there.  I look for VA to come out here and look to establish the run early, and take the occasional shots over the top against Duke secondary that is extremely banged up.

I don’t look at UVA as a bad team, I look at them as a team that overachieved last year and is undergoing a correction.  VA has played a tough schedule and taken their lumps, but I feel strongly that their overall depth and talent are stronger here.  This is the 2nd best team Duke has played and the 2nd worst team UVA has played.  Look for UVA to be able to put a lot of drives together and wear down a thin defensive line.  VA will likely be favored by kickoff.  Wahoos 34 Dukies 28

 

*** Boston College / Army Over 57.5 -110

Simply staying with playing the Boston College over as the season rolls along and the totals stay short.  I think BC’s potent passing attack should continue to shine here against a really bad Army defense, though I expect them to try to find some form of run game.  If BC can’t run it at all here then look for them to really put the ground game on the backburner and just turn Chase Rettig lose.  If Wake Forest and NIU can gash this Army defense, then a much more potent BC attack should have similar success.

Totals, like the tango, usually take 2, and I expect Army to get theirs as well here.  BC just doesn’t have very good defensive personnel this year; they just aren’t the physical group that were used to seeing.  They also are likely to make some mistakes this week; they haven’t seen a true option attack since Paul Johnson’s first year at Georgia Tech in 2008.  While this may be a good primer for their match-up later this year, I think it’s likely to cause problems here.  If Army can have success on the ground look for BC to try to keep their offense in top gear and keep passing the ball.  You might look to Army’s pitiful effort against Stony Brook last week (3 points) and be discouraged here, but they had 4 drives come up empty inside the 10 and left a ton of points on the field.  The Army kicking game is really bad so look for them to go for it in 4th and short situations.

I lean playing Boston College here, but could never lay nearly DD wood with Frank Spaziani on the road in a tough sandwich spot (off tough loss to Clemson, FSU on deck).  But I’m not a big.  The Eagles have a really underrated offense that should continue to put up points here; At 1-3 they have no room to struggle here if they hope to go bowling and save their coaches job.   I expect this BC defense to continue to get gashed here, with Army having no answer for Air Rettig.  Boston 44, Cadets 30

*** Notre Dame Fighting Irish Team Total Over 33.5 -110

Debated just playing the game over, but this way I’m covered if Miami gets shut down and lays an egg offensively, which I think is extremely possible.  Not reading too much into the early struggles of ND’s offense; they’ve been sorting out their QB situation and have gone up against a decent group of defenses (Navy, Purdue, Michigan and Michigan St all rank in the top half nationally in yards per game rankings).  ND got a bye week to continue sort things out on the offensive end (Brian Kelly is 12-2 SU off a bye week) and should be able to have success moving the football against a Miami defense ranked 116th nationally and allowing nearly 500 yards a game.

I think that this ND defense can create some short fields here, setting up the offense to cash in good field position with quick points.   This is a big statement game for ND, at 4-0 and in the top 10, they need to show that they are  a complete football team that can score points as well as play defense.  For a young Miami team coming off 2 very competitive and emotional conference wins, I see ND starting hot here and being able to run downhill here.  I also wouldn’t be surprised to see the Irish break out some trickeration here.  Irish 38, Canes 17.

*** Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +10.5 -105

Buying low on GT here, the defense isn’t nearly as bad as it looked last week in my opinion.  They were missing their two most vocal defensive leaders (Attachou and Young) and just couldn’t stop the snowball effect once things started rolling downhill.  There’s a very real possibility that the Miami game burned them twice.  GT brings their option attack into Death Valley against a defense that once again looks lost and is got absolutely gashed on the ground by the only decent rushing attacks they’ve seen (Ball St and Florida St hit them for 6.7 ypc and over 500 yards on the ground alone).  Don’t underrate the fact that this is the first time the new Venables defense has seen the option here.  I just don’t see Clemson winning by DD against a solid GT team that should move the ball all day and has taken 5 of 6 from Clemson.  Also took a piece of the 1h and ML, Clemson may win outright but I’m betting the Jackets make them work for it.

 

** Syracuse / Pittsburgh Over 59 -110

In a battle of two future ACC teams that I’ve been tracking, I’m taking a shot at some fireworks on Friday night.  I just think this Pitt offense is starting to find itself after their early struggles adjusting to another new coach.  They have a powerful ground game that should move the football against a Cuse defense that isn’t deep up front (4.7 ypc) and has been gashed often.  And Pittsburgh has misleadingly great passing D stats; they haven’t seen anyone who is nearly as good a passer as Nassib (66% passing, 10/5 TD:INT).  I just see Pitt being able to move the football all day here and Syracuse has already shown their a team that doesn’t mind getting in shootouts (their only two games against opponents with an offensive pulse went for 71 and 83 poitns)    Also, both teams are extremly poor in the punting department which should cause some short fields and cause the coaching staffs to be more aggressive in 4th and short.  38-34 somebody..

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13 Responses to “jimmyshivers Week 6 ACC Football Picks”

  1. Adam says:

    My rankings agree with Maryland -5. I have Maryland
    14 15 11 rankings better than Wake.

    • jimmyshivers jimmyshivers says:

      Adam, do you generate your own power #’s through a statistical model or more of a ‘eye’ test? Always curious to how people make their numbers. BOL with your action this weekend

  2. alkimyst says:

    Good Luck!!

    • jimmyshivers jimmyshivers says:

      Alkimyst! Nice to see you posting a little bit over here. I hope you like what the team is doing, we have a lot of good guys putting up solid info here. I’ll be looking out for your card this week, BOL bud

  3. Snow says:

    Like the Virginia pick. VA+2 is in one of my parlays. Looks like. It’s +1.5 right now.

  4. GoSooners GoSooners says:

    Good looking card Jimmy. BOL this week!

  5. Trentmoney says:

    took the bait on nc st +17

  6. Michael says:

    Looks like WF will be without 4 starters per CBS Sports – Wake Forest coach Jim Grobe has suspended six players — four of whom are starters — for Saturday’s game at Maryland, according to a school release.

    LB Mike Olson, CB Merrill Noel, S Daniel Mack, G Frank Souza, RB Deandre Martin, and WR Airyn Willis have been suspended due to a violation of team rules.

    All three defensive players are starters. Olson leads the Demon Deacons with 44 tackles and has a sack. Mack is fifth on the team with 27 tackles, and Noel has 11 tackles and two pass breakups.

    Offensively, Souza has started all five games at guard this season after moving to offense from the defensive side of the ball. Martin does not start, but he has 279 rushing yards and a team-leading five rushing touchdowns.

    “I’m disappointed that some of our kids made poor decisions,” Grobe said. “These are good kids who just need to learn from their mistakes.”

    All six will be eligible for reinstatement prior to Wake Forest’s game at Virginia on Oct. 20.

    • jimmyshivers jimmyshivers says:

      Their all tough losses, but match-up wise losing Noel is going to be a killer, he’s been prepping to go against Diggs all week and was/is their best shot to limit his damage. We still need Maryland to not kill themselves offensively to cover the # but this news obviously helps. Line is now UMd -7

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