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GoSooners Week # 6 College Football Picks

GoSooners Week # 6 College Football Picks

Last Week: 5-2
Season: 19-16-1

 

Iowa State (+11) over TCU **

Syracuse (-1) over Pitt **

Vandy (+7) over Missouri ***

Maryland (-6) over Wake Forest **

Virginia (+1.5) over Duke **

Kansas State (-24) over Kansas ***

North Texas (+12) over Houston **

 

 

Iowa State (+11) over TCU ***

I’ve upped my strength of play on this game from 2 to 3 stars. Not much to say here. Without QB Pachall it takes a big playmaker out of TCU’s offense and passing game. I believe the backup QB is more mobile. So we’ll probably see more running out of TCU and less of the homerun pass plays that they’ve relied on so far this season. ISU coming off a disappointing home loss to an improved Texas Tech team. ISU had several turnovers in that game, and one interception on the TT goaline is what turned that game around and led to a 14 point swing. Knowing Rhoads, he’ll have his team fired up and ready to scratch and claw for a win here to keep from going 0-2 in conference play. I look for a low scoring game. Total is already down to just 42. So points will be at a premium.  I’m glad I got the +11 before the hammer came down on Pachall. But with the line over a TD I think I would still give Iowa State a shot.

 

Kansas State (-24) over Kansas ***

This is always a game that KSU has marked on their calender every year. This in-state matchup is all about recruiting, with Kansas having one of the best JUCO systems in the country. So winning this game is a must to keep the upper hand on those schools. KSU has been very dominant in this series in the last 20 years going something like 16-4. The only time I didn’t see them dominate is when Kansas had Mangino as coach of the “Rock Chalk Jayhawks” during that brief 3 or 4 year period. This happened to be about the same time that Bill Snyder decided to retire when he realized he wasn’t winning the recruiting wars. But Mangino got kicked out, and back in comes a rejuvinated Snyder to make it a second career with his Cats and take back the recruiting base in kansas. And I don’t see him letting it go anytime soon. Especially against Weis. The only thing I don’t like about this play is sometimes teams don’t always come out as sharp as they were after having a bye week. I’ve heard some players say that they hate bye weeks, and they can be overrated. Especially when their playing well. So I’ll be curious to see how KSU comes out in this game. And more importantly how they finish. If Kansas wasn’t such a bad team, i probably wouldn’t play it. But my line for this game is KSU -34. So hopefully the -24 isn’t too good to be true.

 

Syracuse (-1) over Pitt **

Cuse had an uncharacteristically bad game against Minnesota in their last out in commiting 4 turnovers and having 10 penalties in that game. I think if they play a clean game here they have a great chance of knocking off Pitt at home. Both teams have very similar numbers on both sides of the ball. Both of these teams have played similar schedules with Pitt playing two FCS and two FBS teams. But the 3 BCS opponents that Cuse has faced Minnesota, USC, Northwestern all have winning records. Cuse has been in all of these games. And even gave USC a tussle before losing by 13. Now they are back home after a bye week and two weeks to fume over their last loss. My bet is coach Marrone will have his team fired up and focused for this first conference game. And QB Nassib will show us the form he showed against NW and USC. i think Cuse owns both the better QB matchup and coaching matchup in this game, along with the game being played in the Carrier Dome.

 

Vandy (+7) over Missouri ***

This is a good situational play, with Missouri coming back from playing two tough games on the road, and Vandy rested and coming off a much needed bye week after playing the two best teams in the SEC East in the month of Septmeber. Along with a road game against an undefeated Northwestern team. So basically Vandy has played 3 BCS teams with a combined record of 15-0! A hell of a way for any team to start the season. Much less a team like Vandy. They should find the going much easier here against a banged up Missouri team (also check out latest player suspensions). This is really a no brainer for me. Vandy is 0-2 in conference. Franklin will have his team ready to give 100% against an overrated Mizzou team.

 

With the Maryland and Virginia games I highly recommend referring to Jimmy Shivers thread. He’s the ACC guru, and i think he’s dead right on both of these selctions. Maryland is the way better defense playing at home against a struggling WF team who couldn’t even beat Duke at home last week after QB Renfree went down. Plus their defense is giving up way too many points. As they showed in their only other road game vs FSU. Six is just a big enough line to make me nervous betting on an offensively handicapped team like Maryland. But hopefully the Turtles will stay more mistake free in this game and make it a good start to conference play. Virginia looked like they were finally starting to come out of their offensive funk last week against La Tech in which they racked up 625 yards to LT’s 385, and for all practical purposes should have won the game if not for some costly mistakes and penalties. I’m going to give it one more shot with the Cavs, who look like their finally ready to break out with a win. And they’ll never get a better chance against a wounded Duke team.

 

North Texas (+12) over Houston **

 

With the exception of UCLA, North Texas is the only team with a defensive pulse that Houston has faced all season. McCarney has built a pretty good hard nosed team that with the exception of LSU in their first game, has been very competetive in every contest this season. I was especially impressed with the Mean Green when they went to Kansas State, got down and dirty with the Cats, and gave them a tussle for the full 60 minutes. Since that game, they’ve lost a close contest with an underrated Troy team, and a win last week at FAU in which NT had a 17-0 lead, but maybe got a little complacent along the way and let FAU make the game much closer than it should have been. But with the exception of their two excellent top 10 BCS opponets, North Texas hasn’t been a DD dog to anybody else this season, especially another AQ team. I think we’ve all see over the last two seasons, and especailly this year how the Sunbelt has raised their game and become a much tougher conference.  Overall, they are certainly as good or better than the CUSA. Which is the conference that North Texas is joining next year. I like the way the North Texas is playing on both sides of the ball. And after facing LSU and Kansas State, I don’t think Houston is going to put any fear in them.

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21 Responses to “GoSooners Week # 6 College Football Picks”

  1. SoonerBS says:

    I really like your card so far, GS.

  2. Sejjr says:

    The Iowa State game is off the board now. TCU QB got popped for a DWI last night.

  3. Doug says:

    Any comments on the Sooners this week?

  4. GoSooners GoSooners says:

    Doug..OU has issues. Some can be resolved fairly quickly, and some not. Right now i just don’t trust OU enough on the road to play them with confidence. At this point, it wouldn’t surprise me if OU won by 20 or lost by 20. Judgling by the Sooners latest offensive play, I do kind of like the under in this game. But that’s about the farthest I can go in trying to predict anything with OU.

  5. Sendacash says:

    GS, I like the Cuse here -1. I think Vegas made a mistake with this line and it got hit hard. Pitt should not be laying pts to cuse on the road.

  6. jimmyshivers jimmyshivers says:

    Card looks great, looks like a couple of consensus plays on UVA and the Terrapins. BOL my friend

  7. Falcon says:

    What are your thoughts on the BYU/Utah St game friday night..

    thanks

  8. GoSooners GoSooners says:

    Sendacash, my line on the game is Syracuse -1. So Vegas was definitely off to my line. It’s amazing how Pitt beating a Virginia Tech team gives you more street cred. Even if that team isn’t very good right now.

  9. GoSooners GoSooners says:

    Falcon, my line on the BYU/Utah State game is BYU -10. There really aren’t any situational factors that I know that could affect this game. I aslo don’t see an advantage either way when it comes to the motivational factor. I think Utah State wants to win this because it means they will have knocked off their two in-state rivals. And BYU will be motivated to win it because they’ve already lost to Utah. They won’t want to lose to both Utah teams in one season. Which can be disatorous when it comes to their regional recruiting.So if I had a lean here it would be with BYU. But a very small lean. It will probably be a low scoring game. BOL

  10. GoSooners GoSooners says:

    Doug, I don’t have a strong opinion either way with OU/TT. My feeling is OU should be able to win a game like this. But I’m not sure they can cover on the road in Lubbock. Stoops hasn’t lost two games in a row since 1999.So the Sooners do have an excellent bounce back record. Something to take into consideration here if you like Tech. I also kind of like the under. Offensive line problems are usually something that isn’t quickly fixed. As we’ve seen with Wisconsin. I guess we’ll find out if Tech’s defense is for real. Just keep in mind that they haven’t faced a team this year that averages more than 325 total yards per game. So this is kind of a tough game to cap. That’s why I left it alone. Good luck.

  11. Snow says:

    I also like K State team total over 39 if the large spread scares you.

  12. GoSooners GoSooners says:

    Snow, imo if Kansas State doesn’t cover the spread, the game goes under the total. My only concern here is KSU getting off to a slow start. If they can come out and get the early lead, I think they’ll roll. BOL

    • Snow says:

      I know K State is pretty good at holding onto the ball, but on 3+ TD spreads, an inopportune turnover can kill you. I think K State is going to get theirs regardless, but sometimes I like not having to worry about the backdoor.

      Ultimately, I agree with you. I think State takes this one handily.

  13. GoSooners GoSooners says:

    Snow, your right about the backdoor. Which is the reason why I try not to make it a habit of giving a boatload of points. I much rather take the dog and put all of the pressure on the favorite to have to both win AND cover.

  14. Sendacash says:

    GS, The only situational factor I can think of with BYU is that they have Oregon St on deck next week at home. What line would you put on that game? Thanks

  15. Sendacash says:

    To add to that last point, BYU has a road game AT Notre Dame after the Oregon St game and then G Tech after that. A very tough 3 game set in their future. so maybe they take it easy here and try to coast, not show to much I don’t know.

  16. GoSooners GoSooners says:

    Sendacash, we have to keep in mind that just about every game is big for BYU because they are an independent that needs every win they can get to reach a prestigious bowl. Utah State on the other hand has a huge conference game on the road next week against SJST. I’m sure Utah State really wants this one, but in the grand scheme of things, it’s the game next week that will mean the most for them in the long run since SJST is one of the big dogs in the conference along with Utah St and LT. It’s always a possibility that BYU will coast. But knowing Mendenhall, he’s going to really want this one to keep the upper hand in-state for recruiting. It’s hard to sell your team when you have to tell a recruit they lost to both Utah And Utah State last year.

  17. Doug says:

    GoSooners thanh you for you insight to the Sooners matchup this week. You know i live and die, sometimes by the home doggie in the Big 12. Down through the years i have become a dog player in most all sports. I do in fact like this home dog alot. As you say OU can win by 20, but they can also lose to TT just like they did last year. I think the Sooners have grave problems this year.
    Heres my card
    Texas Tech +5.5
    Conn +7.5
    Purdue +3
    Ky +10.5
    Miss + 13.5
    Forida +3
    BOL to ALL

  18. GoSooners GoSooners says:

    Doug, your UCONN, Florida and Ole Miss plays were definitely on my list. I’m trying to keep my plays down to 7 or 8 each week if possible. And there’s a couple here that you listed that I wrestled with all week. I’ll probably wish I had included them. But at least i have a half a unit on these 3 games. So hopefully both of us can win. BOL to you tomorrow. I hope you kill it.

  19. mrsolodolo21 says:

    Really like Vandy +7. Nice job getting ISU on the +11.

  20. GoSooners GoSooners says:

    mrsolodolo21…I also put a little down on TCU -7 to try to middle it. A 4 point difference is too good to pass up.Now we’ll see how much Pachall was really worth to the line. BOL with your plays this weekend. And go Vandy!

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