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Who to bet on Week # 6: Sides & Totals to consider

Who to bet on Week # 6: Sides & Totals to consider

Who to bet on Week # 6: Sides & Totals to consider

Last week our week # 5 sides and totals to consider got a lot of good feedback so this week I will try and get all of our cappers involved. below are some of the games that we are considering betting on this week and a few reasons why we like a particular side or total.

Please feel free to join in the discussion and offer your feedback, we would definitely like to hear about how you are viewing a particular side or total.

Pezgordo

South Carolina -1.5

I kind of thought UGA might be favored in this one, but at least the line is moving that way. My initial lean is towards the better defense at home. The Georgia defense has not lived up to the early season hype. Last week against Tennessee they were at full strength for the first time all season and they still allowed 478 yards and 37 offensive points to Tennessee. In 5 games they have held only Vanderbilt below their offensive season average.

North Carolina State +14.5

Back-to-back road games for FSU. I figure the Wolfpack offense should be able to produce some points in this game, but FSU looks to have a definite edge on defense. The Noles have won four of the last five meetings, but they are 1-9-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings and 0-4-1 ATS in their last five trips to Raleigh. The Wolfpack are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine home games and 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 games following a SU loss.

Texas -7

Any defense that allows 63 points at home is pathetic. Texas should have little problem scoring in this game. The West Virginia defense is a joke and will only get exposed to a larger degree on the road. I keep reading how Texas won’t be able to stop the West Virginia offense because they weren’t able to stop OSU. Let me tell you the difference between OSU’s offense and West Virginia’s, one team has an offensive line and can run the ball and one team can’t. I’ll let you decide which team you think that is. Anyone who saw the Maryland DL completely dominate West Virginia’s OL and put Geno on his ass for 60 minutes probably knows what is about to happen in Austin.

Purdue +3

I was a lot more impressed with how well Purdue played Notre Dame than I was with Michigan. I haven’t looked at the numbers in detail yet, but the Boilers have a pretty good front seven that should be able to slow down Denard. My biggest concern would be that there is no way Michigan and Robinson can play as poorly as they did against the Irish can they?

Boise State – Southern Miss U 47

I thought I had a winner last week with Boise U 52 and up 25-0 at halftime. Than the Bronco D got dominated in the second half. Neither offense is very good in this game, and up until the second half of last weeks game the Boise defense had been playing well. I see both defenses being ahead of the offenses here. 48 is a very strong number, so number needs to go up a little for further consideration.

Marshall +3

I’ve already lost some line value in this game (opened at +4). Marshall reminds me of the non-BCS version of West Virginia, great offense with a garbage defense. Their QB Rakeem Cato is tearing it up (385.75 ypg passing & 12:5 TD:int ratio vs FBS competition), but their defense is really bad (allowing 536 ypg and 49.50 ppg vs FBS competition). Tulsa has the much better defense and I don’t normally like going against the superior defense.

Miami +13

HC Al Golden and the Canes seemed to have turned it around after that disastrous performance in Manhattan, Kansas earlier in the year. The big selling point for me in this one is the Irish offense needing the cover 13 points. Even after scoring 50 points against Navy, the Irish are only averaging 25.75 ppg. In their last 3 games they are averaging 17.67 ppg vs teams that allow 20.49. Tough to cover a 13 point spread if you are only averaging 17.69 ppg. Of course the Miami defense has not been very impressive and Notre Dame should have some success against it. But will it be enough to cover 2 TDs?

Ohio State -3

What am I missing here? I’ve seen Nebraska play every game this year and they aren’t a very good football team, especially on defense. And to make matters worse their defense has been destroyed the past 2 seasons vs dual threat QBs like the one the Buckeyes will trot out in the Horseshoe this Saturday (see UCLA and their 344 yards rushing).

 


 

SabertStxVii

Ole Miss +11.5 vs A&M

Love Ole Miss in this spot. Many of you may think I’m starting to become biased towards Ole Miss. I try and keep my judgment as clear as possible. Trust me here, Ole Miss can win this one straight up. This is really A&M’s first real road game. It is their first SEC game on the road. Granted their frosh QB has been playing great, but he’s still a frosh. Ole Miss’ D looked great last week, which you wouldn’t know looking at the box score. On offense, Rebs can obviously score. A&M has a great D-Line but Ole Miss will utilize their quick passes and option reads to move the ball. Finally, don’t think the books respect Ole Miss yet and what they can do.

Vandy +7 vs Mizzou

Going on the road against a banged up Mizzou team. Vandy coming off a bye. Vandy has played 3 very solid ball clubs, SC, Georgia, and Northwestern. 3 in the top 25, 2 that are in the top 10. Don’t judge them as harshly from these games. Vandy has a great pass D, and has tons of potential on offense; they just haven’t had any cupcake defenses to get going against. Mizzou squeaked by UCF in a game they shouldn’t have won last week. They scored on a busted 80 yard play, a Punt return and a drive that started on UCF 43. Expect this one to be close with Vandy having a shot to win it.

Miami+13 vs ND

I am not buying into this ND team. Yeah I know they don’t play cupcake games blah blahhhh. I reside in the camp that cupcake or not, the same prep goes into games each week (I know this is true). They still have not played one team with a pulse on offense. They ALMOST lost to Purdue, which is arguably the best offense they’ve played (and is according to the stats). This Miami team can score. They are young and athletic. It will be the most athletic team ND has faced. I think 2 scores here is too much to give to a talented team that’s been on a roll on offense vs a team with no offense. I think a bye here may actually hurt ND, because it doesn’t give their offense a chance to get into a groove. Finally, ND now has a target on their backs since they are ranked so highly, undefeated, etc.

Fla ML vs LSU

Fla has a better defense in my opinion. Coming off a bye. Home game in the swamp that Florida views as their Super Bowl. LSU banged up. Florida has a more balanced offense. They load the box and force LSU to throw. Think they win this one. Been on this game since pre-season.

UL-Lafayette -23.5 vs Tulane

Tulane is miserable. Homecoming game here for a 3-1 ULL team that has only lost to OK St. They can score. They’ve put up 40, 37 and 48 so far this year. In 2 of their 3 wins they would have covered this spread. Extra motivation for homecoming against a Tulane team that is just so so bad. ULL actually starting a QB that I think is more dangerous than the previous one that went down with a broken wrist. This play will likely depend on who Tulane announces as their starting QB. If it’s not Griffin, Tulane shouldn’t score more than 20.

Miss St -10.5 vs UK

Max Smith not starting for UK. Miss St has a very solid defense. A team like St. knows these are the games they have to win to make a bowl because the rest of their SEC W schedule is brutal. Team firing on all cylinders and motivated vs. a team that has won one game and is coming off 2 games vs. Top 10 opponents. This game could get ugly.

Rutgers-8.5 vs UConn

Better team, coming off a bye, home game. UConn can’t throw, and definitely can’t run. Rutgers has best rush D in nation right now. Rutgers has a better offense as well. Rutgers looking to redeem themselves from last years loss vs UConn.


Please let us know what you think about any of these games and/or any other game you would like to discuss.

 

 

GoSooners

 

Right now I just have a few leans. We don’t have near the great situational spots this week as we had last week.

Florida (ML)

I definitely don’t want to give points to a team like LSU in what should be a low scoring defensive struggle. LSU and Bama are way overdue to lose to somebody in their conference besides themselves. This could be the spot. UF the much more big game tested team this year. And at this point in the season they have the better QB play.

Iowa State (+11)

I normally don’t like ISU on the road unless I’m getting a ton of points. But TCU a very young team still in the learning process. ISU more of a veteran team coming off a home conference loss in which they turned the ball over 4 times. They’ll be scratching and clawing here for a win to stay in the conference race.

Miss State (-10.5)

Kentucky has been put through the ringer the last 3 weeks losing in OT to WKU, then losing big in the Swamp, then blowing a lead last week against SC. I’m not sure how much this team has left in the tank. Especially without Max Smith. MSU rested off a bye week

Vandy (+7)

Mizzou is  coming off 4 tough games in a row vs GA, ASU, SC, UCF. Vandy rested and coming off a bad loss. One of the better situational play this week.

Oregon State (-15.5)

OSU is a really good football team right now. And this isn’t a good matchup for WSU. Their last game on the road against a team with a good defense resulted in 6 points against BYU. OSU is capable of doing the same. WSU rushing for only 30 ypg while OSU is giving up only 83. And that comes after tough road trips vs UCLA and Zona. OSU should be able to use their front 4 to stop the run and play 7 back for the pass. Can you say turnovers?

Oregon (-24)

I think the Ducks are about ready to open up a can of whoopass on the Huskies. UW another team who can’t run the ball. That’s bad news when taking your show on the road against a quick hitting team like UO as opposed to a methotical team like Stanford. UW needs some kind of ball control offense to keep the Ducks off the field. At this point they don’t have it.

Notre Dame (-12.5)

I don’t know if I’ll play this game because I hate betting on a public team like ND. But I can easily see ND doing the same thing to Miami that KSU did to them. I don’t think Miami has improved at all on defense. They gave up 650 yards at home to NCST last week. They were lucky NCST had 6 TO’s and 100 yards in penalties or the Canes wouldn’t have won the game. I doubt the ND QB’s will have to work very hard in this game. Just hand the ball off and let the RB’s and line do the work against a Miami D that is giving up 225 ypg rushing. Miami has a good offense, but they may not see the field for more than 25 minutes in this game.

Maryland (-5.5 or the under 50)

I like both plays. Maryland’s D is for real. And Wake Forest is a mess right now. Duke QB Renfree went down in the 3rd quarter last week and WF still couldn’t do anything, and gave vup 34 points at home. Last time WF went on the road they got shut out by FSU. I can easily see Maryland holding them to under 21 in this game. Maryland should find the going much easier here against a WF defense giving up nearly 500 ypg. Maryland no offensive juggernaut, but I can see them putting up enough to make it around a 28-17 type game.

I’ve still got a few more that I’m just now getting to. I like to keep my plays as much on BCS games as I can, but I’m seeing a few AQ games that look tempting this week. I’m also waiting for some line moves. I would like to see SC go down to around a pickem. SC the better D playing at home. Cal also looks very tempting after the uncharacteristic way they played last week. But my numbers are saying UCLA. If the line should move up to 3 or higher I might give Cal a shot.

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25 Responses to “Who to bet on Week # 6: Sides & Totals to consider”

  1. Snow says:

    Anyone see the line movement on the UK game? Haha. Wish I had been able to grab State +14. Definitely think it could get ugly if UK can actually manage to not fall apart in the second half.

    Also like the Rutgers game. Line is currently -7.5 at some books.

    I’ve been on the Tulane games last two weeks (thanks again Sabert). You think this one is a go regardless of who Tulane starts at QB? I haven’t seen ULL play at all.

    • SabertStxVii SabertStxVii says:

      Snow – St +14 would have been amazing. That was clearly a mistake. Line is moving in out favor currently right now, as its down to 9.5 at some places. I am looking more into this game, as there are a few stats that don’t favor St. in my opinion, but I think the non-statistical capping favors St. here.

      Like the Rutgers line a lot. Obviously have to look more into this one as well. I think things just line up in Rutgers favor, and enough of the players on this team were on the team last year so they know how dangerous UConn can be.

      Finally with Tulane – I think it has a high likelihood to be a play this week, it just depends a lot to me as to who the QB is. If you have seen either of their past 2 games, they are so terrible that its almost sad after everything that’s gone on with that team. What will change depending on QB for me is size of the play. If its Griffin, I may not play it at all. If it’s not, it’s almost definitely a play just because it’s ULL’s homecoming, they’ve been playing well, etc.

  2. Snow says:

    Got my lean plays locked in for the week.
    ULM -3.5
    Maryland -5
    Rutgers -7 (bought 0.5)
    Miami +13
    Clemson -10
    Ole Miss +11

    Unless something else really obvious presents itself I’m done. Probably going to hit the La Tech team total over still though. My place doesn’t have a number yet.

    BOL this week guys. Thanks again.

  3. GoSooners GoSooners says:

    West Virginia – Texas is a tough game to cap, no doubt. Texas didn’t look good against OSU. I’m a little surprised they won the game. BUT, imo OSU has a better OL than WV. When Maryland played WV I saw Geno Smith get pressured all day. I know the public only remembers the last game, but WV had just 480 total yards against Maryland, who obviously has the better defense than Baylor. We saw how bad Baylor’s defense was when they played ULM. They pretty much did what WV did, except on a little smaller scale. Unlike Baylor, Texas has some guys who can get to the QB. The problems they had with OSU is Gundy had a great offensive gameplan in which his rookie QB never held the ball for more than 2 seconds, and immediately delivered it to his skill players and let them make the plays.. Geno Smith and the WV offense doesn’t operate that way. He’s a pocket passer than depends heavily on pass protection. Whereas OSU can hurt you in many ways, including rushing the ball, and receivers coming out of the backfield. As good as WV’s offense is, I don’t think it’s as balanced as OSU’s offense. Believe it or not, I think this could be a lower scoring game than expected. Texas strength is running the ball, WV’s strength on defense is stopping the run (99 ypg). WV’s strength is passing the ball, Texas gives up about 200 ypg, which isn’t bad considering they’ve played some balanced offenses against Ole Miss and OSU. Both on the road. I guarantee you Geno Smith will be pressured much more in this game than he’s seen so far this season. And if they can’t stop Texas run, it will be a long day for them.

    • SoonerBS says:

      I love the UNDER 75 in this game. The public ought to be all over the OVER, but the line hasn’t budged since it came out.

      • Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

        Agreed. Texas D will get more stops than most people think. Number actually went up to 78 (at least that is as high as I saw it) before settling back down. Would love to see this one go into the 80′s like Baylor did.

    • Bobbyjones2 says:

      GoSooners..I think Texas may be a bit over valued right now, especially on defense where they were just torched by a freshman last week. MO, they lost the battle in the trenches last week on both sides while giving up close to 300 yards on the ground. And their tackling? Especially in space, u miss against these kids from WV and its six. I also give the coaching edge to WV. If UT s bookends don t have huge games ( and they did not last week) and Geno has time to sling it, going to be a long day in Austin. Peace.

    • Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

      It could definitely be a long day in Austin, but I highly doubt that it’ll be the only team on the field capable of playing defense that is having it.

      Funny how up until that Clemson game the West Virginia offense was barely better than average. They had scored 31 offensive points against a Maryland team that allowed 37, 21 against LSU at home, 43 v UCONN, 23 and an ass-kicking to a bad Syracuse team, 41 v Rutgers, 35 v Louisville, 17 offensive points v Cincy, 24 v Pitt & 16 offensive points v USF. That’s a team that averaged 28 ppg vs 8 average defensive teams and 21 points against a good defense.

      Now they put up 70 more against a pathetic Baylor defense and they are once again the best offense since (insert name of an actual good offense here), yet everyone has forgotten how a few short weeks ago they were completely dominated on the LOS by an average Maryland defense and held to 24 offensive points.

      Anyone who wants to wager on a defense that allowed 63 points (at home) on the road and whose offense is good, but nowhere near as great as the media has hyped it up to be, against a team that is second only to Alabama in the last 4-years in recruiting, GOOD LUCK. You’re probably going to need it.

      • Bobbyjones2 says:

        Recruiting? I don t follow. UT has underachieved since Vince took a pay cut and turned pro. To be honest, I grade players on current performance, not past potential. I had UT last week, but aside from Ash and Shipley came away underwhelmed. Poor tackling, and speaking of losing the trenches, they could only run the ball late while ok state gashed them for close to 300. Plainly put, Okl. State pushed all those great recruits around on both sides of the LOS. Those all world book ends? Where were they? I have this thing capped at UT -3. I gladly take seven.

        • Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

          Bobbyjones2

          “UT has underachieved since Vince took a pay cut and turned pro.”

          You aren’t kidding. No team has done less w/ more than Texas the past several years.

          But eventually these things even out. Whether this is the year they do for Texas remains to be seen.

          I just like Texas’ chances in this spot. This games reminds me a lot of USC @ Stanford, except USC actually has a competent defense.

          USC went into that game w/ a massive amount of hype based on three players: Matt Barkley (Geno Smith), Robert Woods (Stedman Bailey) & Marqise Lee (Tavon Austin). The game beforehand (Syracuse) showed that the OL couldn’t protect Barkley against an average pass rush. Stanford’s above average pass rush and run D knocked SC in the teeth and they never responded.

          An average Maryland D showed that the WV OL can’t protect Geno and IF (or when) Texas’ DL knocks Geno around for a few quarters, it’s Syracuse 2011 all over again.

          But all that is conjecture and we shall see what actually happens on Saturday. I know Holgerson has good knowledge of the Big 12 and maybe he puts together a game plan that was as good as Gundy’s.

          In either case I wish you nothing but the BOL in all your games. I have not yet committed to this game, but Texas is definitely my lean.

          • Bobbyjones2 says:

            When capping a game, I like to take the name of the front of the jerseys, and just look at the kids. Nowhere are lines more inflated because of brand names than college football.

            Maybe UT makes me a believer saturday.

            Keep up the good work, you guys are serious and I read all your opinions before I make my plays.

  4. Trentmoney says:

    adding 3* mary/wake u50
    to go along with already posted
    3* miss +11
    2* vandy +7

    good luck
    might have one or two more for the week

  5. BRADLEY says:

    I WOULD LIKE TO GET SOME FEEDBACK ON FEW GAMES GAMES

    IOWA ST/TCU
    ILLINOIS/WISKY
    BUFFALO/OHIO
    NAVY/AIR FORCE
    ARMY/BOSTON COLLEGE

    I LIKE ALL 5 DOGS

    THXS
    GREAT SITE…

    • Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

      Bradley, unfortunately the only one of these five games I am looking at is Iowa St/TCU, where my first instinct is to also take the Cyclones and the points.

      GoSooners and I briefly discussed the Illinois – Wisky game. The biggest advantage I see in this game for Illinois is the fact that Wisky’s offense has been struggling to score, so covering DD could be tough. On the other hand I have seen Illinois play 2 times this season and they are not a very good football team. I don’t think that I have enough guts to take them, but I actually do lean towards the Illini.

      My only impression of Buffalo is based on the one time I saw them play a few weeks ago, and their QB (Zordach) was a disaster. Other than that I have no opinion on them.

      Army and Navy are both struggling but are both getting DD against mediocre teams.

  6. GoSooners GoSooners says:

    Trent, I think the Maryland under 50 is a decent play. Maryland’s defense is for real guys. They are giving up only 272 ypg and only 77 yards rushing. And those numbers include their game with WV. Trouble is Maryland can’t move the ball, averaging only 296 ypg on offense.

  7. Doug says:

    The Texas WV game should be easy, all we gotta do is figure out who will have the ball Last, as that maybe the winner of this matchup. This may very well be another shootout with Both teams in the 40s-50s. ?

  8. GoSooners GoSooners says:

    Damn, I hadn’t even thought about the total in the KSU/Kansas game. That may be the safer way to go. Kansas getting a little better on offense each week. They could put up a few points here. We know KSU will.

  9. Will says:

    Guys,
    Would love to hear your thoughts on the Southern Cal-Utah game tomorrow night.

    • Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

      Will, up until a few weeks ago I really liked Utah’s chances in this game, especially getting anywhere near the 14 points that was being offered on those GOY lines.

      However, I was also making that preference based on the assumption that QB Jordan Wynn would be back and improve the Utah offense and that the defense was one of the top units in the PAC 12.

      At this point we know both not to be true as Wynn has called it a career and the defense I saw in Tempe was anything but an upper PAC 12 unit. However, they were also coming off a big emotional win over BYU the week before and quite possibly not prepared for ASU’s “high octane” offense.

      I believe the defense will play much better against USC tomorrow night, but I just can’t see their offense doing much of anything. QB Hays is not a very good passer and they lack speed at any of the skill positions to consistently hurt/threaten USC’s D.

      For these reasons I went under 48. The 14 and the Utes at home looks very tempting, but I don’t know that even if their D can hold USC below 30 points, that Utah can score enough to cover.

      • Will says:

        Pez,
        Great input!

        I agree, Wittingham catching 2 TDs at home on a Thursday night with extra time is pretty tempting.

        I think it will very interesting to see how the young Utah offensive line will be able to handle the pressure the Trojan D brings. If they can’t protect the QB, it will be a long night for them. And I agree, with the extra time I imagine the Utes will have come up with some ways to disguise coverages and make Barkley feel uncomfortable (or atleast not 100% in the zone).

  10. Rowdy says:

    Agree 100% with Pezgordo on Ohio St -3. Nebraska was getting killed by Ohio St in Lincoln last year till Miller went down. NU’s offense constantly makes mistakes and I would guess will have at least 2-3 turnovers. The mobile QB kills Pelini and his read and react defense (by the time they react the QB is gone). Only way I see NU in this is if OSU feels generous and gives NU more turnovers than they get. NU’s set of LB’s may be the worst they have had in a long time. NU does not respond well to adversity on the road and things tend to snowball on them. If the score is relatively close at half, I will be all over OSU in the 2nd half as well.

  11. Doug says:

    Are the Oklahoma Sooners as bad as i think? Is the Texas Tech defense as good as i think?
    I think the Sooners are in for ALL the can handle in this matchup at Lubock. I myslef Love this home doggie now getting 6. Wonder if the line goes back to the opener of 7. Texas Tech did in fact catch wiseguy money naturally at the +7.

  12. GoSooners GoSooners says:

    Doug, I’m a big Sooners fan, but I’ve got to admit I’m almost clueless on them this year. I think it’s a mix of internal problems and shuffling players around on the lines because of injuries that has everybody confused on how to play them. Whether they got their problems halfway ironed out in the last two weeks is anybody’s guess. But gun to my head i would probably take Tech and the points this week. But I’m laying off the spread. I do kind of like the under for that game if the TT defense is for real like they say.Plus I think Mike Stoops will have a good defensive gameplan for Tech.

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