Last week our week # 5 sides and totals to consider got a lot of good feedback so this week I will try and get all of our cappers involved. below are some of the games that we are considering betting on this week and a few reasons why we like a particular side or total.
Please feel free to join in the discussion and offer your feedback, we would definitely like to hear about how you are viewing a particular side or total.
South Carolina -1.5
I kind of thought UGA might be favored in this one, but at least the line is moving that way. My initial lean is towards the better defense at home. The Georgia defense has not lived up to the early season hype. Last week against Tennessee they were at full strength for the first time all season and they still allowed 478 yards and 37 offensive points to Tennessee. In 5 games they have held only Vanderbilt below their offensive season average.
North Carolina State +14.5
Back-to-back road games for FSU. I figure the Wolfpack offense should be able to produce some points in this game, but FSU looks to have a definite edge on defense. The Noles have won four of the last five meetings, but they are 1-9-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings and 0-4-1 ATS in their last five trips to Raleigh. The Wolfpack are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine home games and 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 games following a SU loss.
Any defense that allows 63 points at home is pathetic. Texas should have little problem scoring in this game. The West Virginia defense is a joke and will only get exposed to a larger degree on the road. I keep reading how Texas won’t be able to stop the West Virginia offense because they weren’t able to stop OSU. Let me tell you the difference between OSU’s offense and West Virginia’s, one team has an offensive line and can run the ball and one team can’t. I’ll let you decide which team you think that is. Anyone who saw the Maryland DL completely dominate West Virginia’s OL and put Geno on his ass for 60 minutes probably knows what is about to happen in Austin.
I was a lot more impressed with how well Purdue played Notre Dame than I was with Michigan. I haven’t looked at the numbers in detail yet, but the Boilers have a pretty good front seven that should be able to slow down Denard. My biggest concern would be that there is no way Michigan and Robinson can play as poorly as they did against the Irish can they?
Boise State – Southern Miss U 47
I thought I had a winner last week with Boise U 52 and up 25-0 at halftime. Than the Bronco D got dominated in the second half. Neither offense is very good in this game, and up until the second half of last weeks game the Boise defense had been playing well. I see both defenses being ahead of the offenses here. 48 is a very strong number, so number needs to go up a little for further consideration.
I’ve already lost some line value in this game (opened at +4). Marshall reminds me of the non-BCS version of West Virginia, great offense with a garbage defense. Their QB Rakeem Cato is tearing it up (385.75 ypg passing & 12:5 TD:int ratio vs FBS competition), but their defense is really bad (allowing 536 ypg and 49.50 ppg vs FBS competition). Tulsa has the much better defense and I don’t normally like going against the superior defense.
HC Al Golden and the Canes seemed to have turned it around after that disastrous performance in Manhattan, Kansas earlier in the year. The big selling point for me in this one is the Irish offense needing the cover 13 points. Even after scoring 50 points against Navy, the Irish are only averaging 25.75 ppg. In their last 3 games they are averaging 17.67 ppg vs teams that allow 20.49. Tough to cover a 13 point spread if you are only averaging 17.69 ppg. Of course the Miami defense has not been very impressive and Notre Dame should have some success against it. But will it be enough to cover 2 TDs?
Ohio State -3
What am I missing here? I’ve seen Nebraska play every game this year and they aren’t a very good football team, especially on defense. And to make matters worse their defense has been destroyed the past 2 seasons vs dual threat QBs like the one the Buckeyes will trot out in the Horseshoe this Saturday (see UCLA and their 344 yards rushing).
Ole Miss +11.5 vs A&M
Love Ole Miss in this spot. Many of you may think I’m starting to become biased towards Ole Miss. I try and keep my judgment as clear as possible. Trust me here, Ole Miss can win this one straight up. This is really A&M’s first real road game. It is their first SEC game on the road. Granted their frosh QB has been playing great, but he’s still a frosh. Ole Miss’ D looked great last week, which you wouldn’t know looking at the box score. On offense, Rebs can obviously score. A&M has a great D-Line but Ole Miss will utilize their quick passes and option reads to move the ball. Finally, don’t think the books respect Ole Miss yet and what they can do.
Vandy +7 vs Mizzou
Going on the road against a banged up Mizzou team. Vandy coming off a bye. Vandy has played 3 very solid ball clubs, SC, Georgia, and Northwestern. 3 in the top 25, 2 that are in the top 10. Don’t judge them as harshly from these games. Vandy has a great pass D, and has tons of potential on offense; they just haven’t had any cupcake defenses to get going against. Mizzou squeaked by UCF in a game they shouldn’t have won last week. They scored on a busted 80 yard play, a Punt return and a drive that started on UCF 43. Expect this one to be close with Vandy having a shot to win it.
Miami+13 vs ND
I am not buying into this ND team. Yeah I know they don’t play cupcake games blah blahhhh. I reside in the camp that cupcake or not, the same prep goes into games each week (I know this is true). They still have not played one team with a pulse on offense. They ALMOST lost to Purdue, which is arguably the best offense they’ve played (and is according to the stats). This Miami team can score. They are young and athletic. It will be the most athletic team ND has faced. I think 2 scores here is too much to give to a talented team that’s been on a roll on offense vs a team with no offense. I think a bye here may actually hurt ND, because it doesn’t give their offense a chance to get into a groove. Finally, ND now has a target on their backs since they are ranked so highly, undefeated, etc.
Fla ML vs LSU
Fla has a better defense in my opinion. Coming off a bye. Home game in the swamp that Florida views as their Super Bowl. LSU banged up. Florida has a more balanced offense. They load the box and force LSU to throw. Think they win this one. Been on this game since pre-season.
UL-Lafayette -23.5 vs Tulane
Tulane is miserable. Homecoming game here for a 3-1 ULL team that has only lost to OK St. They can score. They’ve put up 40, 37 and 48 so far this year. In 2 of their 3 wins they would have covered this spread. Extra motivation for homecoming against a Tulane team that is just so so bad. ULL actually starting a QB that I think is more dangerous than the previous one that went down with a broken wrist. This play will likely depend on who Tulane announces as their starting QB. If it’s not Griffin, Tulane shouldn’t score more than 20.
Miss St -10.5 vs UK
Max Smith not starting for UK. Miss St has a very solid defense. A team like St. knows these are the games they have to win to make a bowl because the rest of their SEC W schedule is brutal. Team firing on all cylinders and motivated vs. a team that has won one game and is coming off 2 games vs. Top 10 opponents. This game could get ugly.
Rutgers-8.5 vs UConn
Better team, coming off a bye, home game. UConn can’t throw, and definitely can’t run. Rutgers has best rush D in nation right now. Rutgers has a better offense as well. Rutgers looking to redeem themselves from last years loss vs UConn.
Please let us know what you think about any of these games and/or any other game you would like to discuss.
Right now I just have a few leans. We don’t have near the great situational spots this week as we had last week.
I definitely don’t want to give points to a team like LSU in what should be a low scoring defensive struggle. LSU and Bama are way overdue to lose to somebody in their conference besides themselves. This could be the spot. UF the much more big game tested team this year. And at this point in the season they have the better QB play.
Iowa State (+11)
I normally don’t like ISU on the road unless I’m getting a ton of points. But TCU a very young team still in the learning process. ISU more of a veteran team coming off a home conference loss in which they turned the ball over 4 times. They’ll be scratching and clawing here for a win to stay in the conference race.
Miss State (-10.5)
Kentucky has been put through the ringer the last 3 weeks losing in OT to WKU, then losing big in the Swamp, then blowing a lead last week against SC. I’m not sure how much this team has left in the tank. Especially without Max Smith. MSU rested off a bye week
Mizzou is coming off 4 tough games in a row vs GA, ASU, SC, UCF. Vandy rested and coming off a bad loss. One of the better situational play this week.
Oregon State (-15.5)
OSU is a really good football team right now. And this isn’t a good matchup for WSU. Their last game on the road against a team with a good defense resulted in 6 points against BYU. OSU is capable of doing the same. WSU rushing for only 30 ypg while OSU is giving up only 83. And that comes after tough road trips vs UCLA and Zona. OSU should be able to use their front 4 to stop the run and play 7 back for the pass. Can you say turnovers?
I think the Ducks are about ready to open up a can of whoopass on the Huskies. UW another team who can’t run the ball. That’s bad news when taking your show on the road against a quick hitting team like UO as opposed to a methotical team like Stanford. UW needs some kind of ball control offense to keep the Ducks off the field. At this point they don’t have it.
Notre Dame (-12.5)
I don’t know if I’ll play this game because I hate betting on a public team like ND. But I can easily see ND doing the same thing to Miami that KSU did to them. I don’t think Miami has improved at all on defense. They gave up 650 yards at home to NCST last week. They were lucky NCST had 6 TO’s and 100 yards in penalties or the Canes wouldn’t have won the game. I doubt the ND QB’s will have to work very hard in this game. Just hand the ball off and let the RB’s and line do the work against a Miami D that is giving up 225 ypg rushing. Miami has a good offense, but they may not see the field for more than 25 minutes in this game.
Maryland (-5.5 or the under 50)
I like both plays. Maryland’s D is for real. And Wake Forest is a mess right now. Duke QB Renfree went down in the 3rd quarter last week and WF still couldn’t do anything, and gave vup 34 points at home. Last time WF went on the road they got shut out by FSU. I can easily see Maryland holding them to under 21 in this game. Maryland should find the going much easier here against a WF defense giving up nearly 500 ypg. Maryland no offensive juggernaut, but I can see them putting up enough to make it around a 28-17 type game.
I’ve still got a few more that I’m just now getting to. I like to keep my plays as much on BCS games as I can, but I’m seeing a few AQ games that look tempting this week. I’m also waiting for some line moves. I would like to see SC go down to around a pickem. SC the better D playing at home. Cal also looks very tempting after the uncharacteristic way they played last week. But my numbers are saying UCLA. If the line should move up to 3 or higher I might give Cal a shot.