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SabertStxVii Week 6 College Football Picks

SabertStxVii Week 6 College Football Picks

Had another solid week last week. Glad things are working out well, but even happier I feel like I have only been on the wrong side/completely misread of a few games all season. Below are my Week 6 College Football Picks.

Think this is going to be a little bit of a switch of a week for me. I was riding some big favs the past few weeks as I thought certain teams were mis-priced. I think the books have started to correct, and the dogs may start to have more value.

Week 1: 5-3 +4.5* units , Week 2: 6-2 +10* units, Week 3: 3-3, -.5* units, Week 4: 5-2, +6.5u, Week 5: 4-2, +5.5u

Overall: 23-12 + 26* Units

66%, +5units/wk


1* Unit, UCF -11.5 vs ECU – #WINNING

4* Units, Ole Miss +11.5/13 vs A&M -#WINNING

2.5* Units, Vandy +7 vs Mizzou – #WINNING

3* Units, Maryland -6 vs Wake – #EXTRAPOINTS

3* Units, UL-Laf -26.5 vs Tulane – #FADETULANE

1* Unit, Florida+3 vs LSU – #WINNING

2* Units, Air Force -7 (buy hook) vs Navy – #TURNOVERS

1.5* Units, Rutgers -7 vs UConn – #WINNING

1* Unit, Miss St -10 vs UK – #WINNING


 

4* Units, Ole Miss +11.5/13 vs A&M

I think after this game, value on Ole Miss will start to change as they face their SEC schedule. People that just look at the box scores of last weeks game at Bama, would assume that Ole Miss D, as most of the season has gone, looked bad. It was quite the opposite here. The D held Bama to one sustained, long scoring drive. The defense is coming together, and getting players back and healthy is key here. Bama scored on a kickoff return, short fields set up by turnovers, and one long sustained drive.

Now A&M on the other hand has a very powerful offense. They are led by Manziel, a freshman QB. He can run and throw the ball well, and they look to get quick passes to their playmakers in space. The only loss that A&M has is the first game of the season when they hosted Florida. They actually led this game, but Florida came out and the defense put it too them. Since then, they haven’t played a team that plays a lick of defense. Arky defense does not count. This is also the first real away game for Manziel, and first SEC away game. It is a night game, the Ole Miss fans will have all day to spend in the grove, and I expect this game to go a bit differently than the Texas game.

Ole Miss can win this game I think. They need to protect the ball better and force A&M to work for their scores. Forcing some A&M turnovers wouldn’t be bad either. In conclusion, home, running dogs, with an underrated D, underrated coach, getting double digits. Yup.

Final Score

Ole Miss 33, A&M 38

 


 

2.5* Units, Vandy +7 vs Mizzou

Both teams going for their first SEC win. All things shaping up here to be a battle.

Vandy appears from all my experience to be in a good situational spot here. They have played a TOUGH first 4 games. They played SC first at home, and lost 13-17. They went to Northwestern, which is an extremely tough place to play believe it or not, and lost 13-23. Finally, they went to UGA, and just couldn’t get it together. Those teams are all ranked in the top 25, with SC and UGA being in the Top 10.

They took their much needed bye last week in prep for this game. Coming into this season, I had decent expectations for Vandy. They were returning a decent amount on both sides of the ball, and ironically, I was more high on their offense and defense. I think they have fallen fate to playing some really good defenses teams here early. Their defense is solid. The extra week should give their offense some spark I think and chance to plan.

Mizzou on the other hand is banged up. They are coming off a tough game at UCF that they honestly should have lost. They scored on a Punt Return, a short field set up by an INT, and a broken 80 yard play.  They are returning home, at 3-2, and taking on an underrated Vandy team.

These teams are actually pretty similar according to my stats, and I honestly have Vandy being favored if it wasn’t for homefield. Vandy has better Yds/Pass Attempt, Avg Rushing. Vandy ranks 118th in 3rd downs, with Mizzou at 115. Vandy is better in some of the key categories that lead to points (let’s hope) and wins (would be nice). I think this is going to be a breakout game, for either team. They suck in the Red-Zone and 3rd down, so whoever can get short fields and convert for scores should win.

Think it could be a field goal either way honestly.

Final Score

Vandy 21, Mizzou 24


3* Units, UL-Lafayette -26.5 vs Tulane

If you have followed me the last 2 weeks, you know how much I am fading Tulane and how bad I feel for them. Even their 3rd string QB is banged up now and a WR is getting reps. I don’t think Vegas can make this line high enough.

They now travel to UL-Lafayette, a team that is averaging 38 points, including a game that they put up 24 vs OK St. It is UL-Lafayettes homecoming and I don’t see them putting up less than 45 here.

Do I think Tulane can score 20? A team that has scored 32 points in 5 games, 14 of which came in garbage time 4th Q against teams backups? No chance.  This one should also get ugly.

Final Score

ULL 52 Tulane 13


2* Units, Zoomies -7 vs the Boats

Speaking of terrible teams, Navy is up there. Not quite as terrible as Tulane obviously, but they definitely aren’t good. At least if I lose some games, it will be a damn surprise this week; I’m playing against a lot of terrible teams. Their only win coming against lowly VMI, a team that just gets smacked around pretty much by everyone. They hosted SJSU last week and got shut out.

This week they’re travelling to Colorado Springs to take on Air Force in the high altitude. Air Force runs a pretty mean option attack, garnering the numero uno rushing attack in the NCAA. Even if this Air Force team is only 2 and 2, they have stayed relatively close to their opponents, almost beating Michigan (which is actually less impressive each week).

Both teams run the triple option offense. One does it semi-effectively, and one does not. Navy has been lethargic on O. Navy sucks on 3rd downs ranking 92nd, compared to Air Force ranking 8th. This is because Navy sucks at picking up yards on the ground. They average 4.6 yards per rush. For a triple option team? please. Air Force is grinding out 6+ a pop on average getting them in good 3rd down range. It’s all a formula. Navy is brutal in the red zone too, ranking 118th. Air Force is 29th, scoring on 71% of their Redzone plays.

So in synopsis: Navy coming off a loss, traveling across the country, playing in the high altitude (defense getting tired defending the better option) against an Air Force team that has routinely been dominated by Navy the past decade.

I’ll take the Falcons over the ‘Shipmen.

Final Score

AF 38, Navy 14


1* Unit, Florida +3 vs LSU

I think we have two teams that may be going in slightly different directions. People keep saying that LSU has to break out at some point. I just don’t see it. I have had this game circled since before the season started and got Florida at some good GOY #s. Also knew putting in my national championship future bet that Florida has to win this one to really be respected.

So what do we have. 2 teams with inexperienced QBs. 2 teams with solid running game. 2 teams with VERY good SEC defenses.

Why Florida? If you stop LSUs run game, you can shut them down. I expect Florida to stack 7/8 in the box and force Mettenberger to throw. FL secondary is good enough to match up 1v1 with LSUs receivers I think. I think the fact that Driskel poses a duel threat gives the Gators an edge. He is averaging over 50 yards rushing a game. That is enough for a defense to respect. This will open up plays down the field for his receivers if he can show run and then pass.

Florida just needs to limit mistakes and giving LSU short fields. I don’t see LSU having long sustained scoring drives. LSU ranks 85th in RZ Scoring %, while Florida ranks 11th. In a game that could come down to one play, that could mean alot.

Two years ago, LSU came into the Swamp and won using a fake field goal that bounced off the ground and a TD pass as time pretty much expired. The Florida players were forced to watch this game as film on Sunday. I think coming off a bye, they will be healthier and motivated to knock off LSU.

Expect a battle, circa LSU vs Bama 2011.

Final Score

Florida 20, LSU 16


3* Units, Maryland -6 vs Wake

This is a pretty consensus play on Saturday Edge, which is either very good or very bad depending on how you look at it. To preface, Jimmy Shivers, the ACC maniac has a very indepth analysis in his plays here.

Believe it or not, Maryland has better statistical advantage in this game. The Terps have a somewhat surprisingly stout defense. They are 39th in sacks and 22 in tackles for loss. The defense is ranked 8th in the nation, and that’s after playing WVU, who they held to 31 points and continued to rattle Geno Smith. WVU has a sound OL, and if Maryland can penetrate that, they should have no issue getting after Tanner Price. Wake Forest is pretty banged up, including Tanner who has been feeling it since the FSU game from what I’ve heard. I think this Maryland D will punish Wake. Wake struggled to get by a Duke team at home, that lost their QB halfway through the game.

My question with this game is can Maryland score? As you are beginning to see, my capping style is analytical def vs offense which is then supported by some outside factors.

I think the Maryland O gets it going this week. It is a home game for the terps, coming off of a bye. They are sitting at 2 and 2, and I expect them to have polished off some things on offense over that time. The freshman QB should get things more together for this game, as he already has seemed to improve each game. Going against the Wake Forest 99th ranked defense is exactly what they need to get things back on track.

When it breaks down here is why I like this bet:

  1. Stats favor Maryland.
  2. They are coming off of a bye, and they will definitely be healthier than wake.
  3. They are home.
  4. They have a better defense.

I as well as JimmyShivers see this as a DD win for a Maryland team that is trending positively.

Final Score

Maryland 31, Wake 13


1.5* Units, Rutgers -7 vs UConn

Interesting spot here I think for Rutgers. UConn was slammed early by the sharps and syndicates which is why we got it at a TD. They didn’t necessarily love UConn, but they see value in a Big East game, with 2 teams with decent defense going up against each other, working under the mindset that there is no way it is a DD spread.

So now we have Rutgers at a TD. Why I like this? Both teams have solid D’s. I think this is the case of some defenses getting a little overrated for not playing anyone with too exciting of an offense. I like Rutgers because their offense is underrated. Nova has looked like a real QB this year, and they have 2 very solid RBs.

UConn’s D is good, but what have they proven? They let Maryland’s weak offense put up 21 early in the season, they let a MAC team put up 30. Other than that, they’ve played 2 of the worst teams they could play this season with Mass and Buffalo.

I am high on Rutgers. They had a tough past 2 games, going down to USF to play in a nationally televised game, then going to Arkansas and down the SEC team (albeit they don’t look like one now).

UConn certainly cannot run the ball, and they definitely can’t pass. That does not bode well going up against a Rutgers team, playing at home, and coming off of a bye week.

The team is ranked, the fans should be pumped up, and I do not expect Rutgers to take this game lightly. They had an extra week to focus on this game, and many of the players were on the team last year when UConn upset them 40-22 late in the season to redirect their bowl hopes.

Final Score

Rutgers 27, UConn 17


1* Unit, Miss St -10 vs UK

This play is not based off of much this season. It is simply a fade of team A vs team B.

Kentucky has played a tough schedule, don’t get me wrong. But, besides for one half vs. SC, they have not shown me anything remotely positive, besides maybe some decent defensive play. They will be playing without Max Smith. I don’t love their coach. I think this team is just really struggling and will be facing a team with more talent.

Miss State on the other hand is a hungry team. They want to actually prove they belong in the SEC. They have more talent, a decent QB and an impressive defense. They are a bunch of ball hawks that lead the NCAA in turnover margin, and I don’t see that changing here.

Finally Miss St. is coming off of a bye. They have played a pretty cake schedule and are looking to get a real team to play against. They should not take UK lightly. They know they need to win these easier SEC games, especially because the SEC West is so tough. I know Miss St. is such an obvious, public side, but I see them rolling here and getting after a beat up UK team.

Final Score

St. 38, UK 17


 

1* Unit, UCF -11.5 vs East Carolina (#WINNING)

When I first looked at this game early in the week at -14, it was a lay off for me. UCF is an extremely talented team believe it or not. I was on them when they played OSU for a good amount and they covered. They are off a tough game against Missouri. Frankly, it was a game they should have won. If you looked at the box scores and covered up the team names at the top, you would have thought UCF won.

UCF returned quite a few players from their team last year that played tons of close games and should have ended up 9-3 by some advanced stats that predict how they actually played. Not going to get into it, but they returned a lot of quality players.

On DL, they average 290 lbs which is huge, and they are anchored by Jose Jose, who comes in at about 330 bones. ECU really sucks at running the ball, so that won’t be an issue vs. UCF. Against teams that rank in the Top 40 of Pass D, ECU has scored 10 and 6, both on the road this year. UCF ranks in the Top 40. Frankly, I don’t think UCF stopping ECU is going to be the problem; they are much more talented when matching up with ECUs O.

Can UCF score? ECU is not scary by any means on defense. They are allowing 124 rushing yards per game and tons of yards through the air. Storm Johnson should be able to run the ball and they should be able to pick up 3rd downs. UCF ranks higher in pretty much every category within the Top 15 that correlates with winning and scoring points. Most notably, they rank 16 in RZ TD % with ECU at 82. They are 30th in 3rd down conv while ECU is 95th. They are 25 in sacks and 48th in TFL compared to ECU at 55th and 74th.

Couple all of those stats with ECU playing on the road in a nationally televised game at night, and I’m taking the more talented team that is better coached coming off a tough loss looking to rebound.

Final Score

UCF 34 ECU 14

 


For analysis, commentary, plays and randomness, follow @mtsabert on twitter.

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12 Responses to “SabertStxVii Week 6 College Football Picks”

  1. Doug says:

    BOL as Always. I really like the Miss play, Alot. Missouri down through the years seems to Always play Good to Better at home. Just another Big 12 team, as they ALL seem to play over their heads

    • SabertStxVii SabertStxVii says:

      Doug,

      Thanks for the comment. I think two scores is just too much to give on the road. Everyone is looking at what a&m has done their past few games and that’s put up a lot of points. Everyone also sees this ole miss team with no defense. They have improved dramatically here since the beginning of the season.

      Secondly, I like Vandy here. They have played a brutal first few games, against 3 teams in top 25 and 2 in top 10. They held sc close actually, but Georgia did get a bit away from them. Paying at Uga is hard. I like them here because they are coming off of a bye, they are able to gameplan extra for this game at mizzou. Vandy had high hopes coming into the year, and we all thought that their defense was going to be the issues. That’s not the case, it’s their offense. I think they should be able to start that turnaround here this week.

      On top of that, mizzou is really struggling on O. They should have lost last week. If you look at the box score and don’t know the names of either team, you’d probably think they’d lost. They scored on some great field position, a punt return and a broken play. I think this rested vandy d will be solid. Think vandy can win this one outright against a banged up mizzou team and wouldn’t be surprised if they did.

  2. Winston says:

    Rutgers is down to -7 1/2, I am going to buy it down to -7 and let er rip… What do you think?

    WT

    • SabertStxVii SabertStxVii says:

      Win,

      Think this line movement is really interesting here. Rutgers is coming off of a bye, playing at home. They also have a team that remembers how dangerous uconn can be after last year. I am still a little leery on this play for a few reasons.

      Rutgers never seems to blow anyone out. I’m not saying 2 scores is a blowout here, but that’s one thing to be careful of. Also, don’t judge uconn just by their game last week. Yeah they struggled against a bad team, but we gotta look past that. It’s only week 6.

      I am also worried that after everyone saw Rutgers throttle an sec team, they are now ranked, they beat Ucf on natl tv, etc., they are overvalued. This line seems almost like a trap to me being this low.

      I think Rutgers will be able to gameplan some scores in. If they are able to get an early and comfortable lead on uconn, uconn will be forced to do what they suck at, and that’s pretty much everything on offense. If you think this is going to be a hard fought close defensive game, I’d steer clear. Not sure what side I’m on yet. Leaning Rutgers, but need to look a bit more into it.

      There is definitely value though getting this at 7 when it opened at 10. Book had this one pegged at a like a ~25-16 type of score.

  3. Falcon says:

    what are your thoughts on the byu/utah st game friday night

    thanks

    • SabertStxVii SabertStxVii says:

      Falcon,

      Honestly I lean Utah St. here, but not as much conviction behind that too make it an actual play. When you look at it, you have two teams with what appears to be really good defenses. In actuality, I do not think these defense are what they are cracked up to be. Both have taken advantage of playing some pretty bad offenses. Utah St. played the 76,112,109,113,and 80th ranked offenses and BYU played 84,86,112,72 and 114. So theres that. I don’t think either defense is as impressive as they actually look.

      I lean Utah St. because they can actually score. I’ve watched 2 BYU games now this year, and I’m not impressed with their offense, at all. They try and do too much with their QBs, who both are not good. I think the fact that Utah St. is somewhat decent on O, they will be able to keep it close.

      BYU is a very tough place to play so that factors in. At this point, Utah St. is getting a TD in a game I think will actually be pretty close.

      Thanks for stopping by.

  4. Falcon says:

    thank you.. already had Utah St +7, just wanted to see what you liked.. congrats on a very nice season thus far..

  5. Seth says:

    The Ole Miss line keeps on climbing. Is the public all over TAMU?

    • Snow says:

      Yep. Doesn’t mean they’re right. This game was one of the first I looked at, at +11. I’ve watched most of their games this year and am in complete agreement with Sabert. Ole Miss can win this game if they limit the turnovers. Regardless, it should be close.

      • SabertStxVii SabertStxVii says:

        Public all over A&M after seeing what A&M did last week and the appearance that OleMiss has no D. Gobble it up at 14 if you can. Jealous I can’t quite get it there at this point.

  6. Falcon says:

    Any comments on Tex Tech +4 today or West Virginia +7

    thanks

    • SabertStxVii SabertStxVii says:

      Lean Oklahoma at -4 but you just have no idea what you are going to get from them on O so I stayed away.

      With regard to WVU, I lean Texas because they can make WVU one dimensional especially with the WVU RB out. I just hate going up against an offense that easily can backdoor you and win outright if needed.

      Thanks for the comments Falcon.

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