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Pezgordo’s Week # 6 College football Picks

Pezgordo’s Week # 6 College football Picks

Pezgordo’s College Football Picks – YTD: 34-31 ATS 

My totals are still not hitting at the rate I would like to see, but starting to get some good numbers and stats to work with going forward. I went 6-7 on my posted picks, but hit both BEST BETS (1.5 units each), and once again hit my newsletter consensus pick of Minnesota – Iowa U 46.5. GoSooners and I also had a come from ahead push with our newsletter consensus pick of Kentucky +21. That one still bothers me.

Had a pretty good weekend for my season win totals as UCLA, Iowa and Oregon State were all winners. Tennessee lost, but played UGA tough. Utah and Auburn had the weekend off.

A few early ones for Week # 5:

Florida +3 (1.5 units)

USF -4.5

I was going to get off this game as it was a Sunday night knee jerk selection (along with Florida) where I thought the number was off and would move in my favor. The number has since moved against me (down to 3.5) and I read a lot of disturbing information about USF and their travel troubles. However after finally getting around to running some numbers on this game all I could say was “WOW,” Temple is one bad football team. If USF and Skip Holtz can’t take care of business in this game they are both in a lot of trouble.

Colorado State +16

USC – Utah U 48 – LOSER

Michigan State – Indiana U 48.5

Ole Miss +11

Vanderbilt +7

Michigan – Purdue U 59

I used this pick as our weekly BEST BET at College Football Zealots. We’ve hit 4 in a row over there and can hopefully keep things going with this one. I certainly have a concern with the Purdue defense as they allowed over 500 yards in this game last year. But that was in Ann Arbor and I don’t think the Michigan offense is quite up to last year’s standards, so expecting a little better defensive effort.

Boston College – Army O 57

jimmyahivers has a good write-up n this game here. My numbers and correlations give this game a good chance of going over as well.

SMU +3

Despite playing the statistically better offenses, SMU is still the better defensive team in this match-up. They are also the potential running dog and with UTEP’s poor run defense, the Mustangs should in fact end up being the running dog. The better defense and running dog is usually a good combination.

Virginia Tech +7 (-120)


The remainder of my selections will be in this weeks newsletter. So if you haven’t done so already, please sign-up for our weekly FREE newsletter.

Good luck this week everyone.

 

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31 Responses to “Pezgordo’s Week # 6 College football Picks”

  1. Doug says:

    BOL as always. How did ya miss that Texas Tech +7 or 6.5? The Sooners will not fair well here. JMHO.

  2. Snow says:

    Early lines I like:
    Maryland -5 vs. Wake Forest
    With Maryland’s much improved defense this year (holding West Virginia to +10, and only 31 points), I don’t see them having a problem getting stops here. For that reason alone I like this game. And with Duke being able to put up 34 against Wake last week, Maryland should fare at least as well.

    Ole Miss +11 vs. Texas A&M
    I just really like Ole Miss right now. They’re a team with a ton of potential, and they play four quarters of football every game. A&M has the ability to put up some points, but in their only real test this year against Florida they lost in a low scoring game. As stingy as Alabama’s D has been, with Ole Miss being able to put up 2 TDs, I can definitely see them getting in the endzone 3 or 4 times this week. And as a DD dog, that looks like money to me.

    Clemson -10 vs. Georgia Tech
    We all thought GT might be able to put something together after their first few wins over some cupcakes. Miami and Middle Tennessee exposed them the last couple of weeks.

    UL Monroe -3 vs. Middle Tennessee
    Middle tennessee had a “big” win over GT last week, and even without this comedown game, I still give this one to ULM easily. They’ve been on a roll, beating the spread every week. How they were +7 to Baylor, and are only -3 here is blowing my mind right now.

    • Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

      Snow, I’ve been on Maryland 3 times already this year (2-0-1), so I will definitely be looking at them this week. Ole Miss and ULM are also on my early list. I will get everyone to send me some of their early leans/games to look at and get it up tomorrow morning.

      Clemson offense is rolling again this year. Big revenge game for them too here,

      Thanks for your thoughts.

  3. Snow says:

    Just after posting this, ULM line is already climbing. I wasn’t even fast enough to lock it in at -3. Haha. Got -3.5.

  4. Trentmoney says:

    3* ole miss +11
    2* vandy +7

    that’s all for now
    good luck

    • Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

      Love ‘em. I could have gotten Ole Miss at +11.5, but waited and had to settle for +11. First SEC road start for QB Johnny Football. Rebel D impressed against Alabama last week (unfortunately for me since I was on the over).

  5. Doc says:

    Early leans I’m potentially liking:

    Florida (+3) – right there w/ ya on that one, Pez!
    Indiana (+15.5)
    Ole Miss (+11)
    Purdue (+3)

    thinking hard about Washington, West Virgina, Penn St, and Nebraska as well

    I’ll hopefully have some time to write some stuff up if anyone wants to hear it!

    Keep going fellas

    • Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

      Doc, Ole Miss and Purdue are two of my leans too. I definitely want to hear what you have to say about these games. I’ll get a thread/article up tomorrow so we can all start trading information and ideas.

  6. Riley says:

    Take a good look at Rutgers this week. Line already moved down from -9 to -8.5 (-8 some places).

    Rutgers off a bye week, at home against a team that struggled against an awful Buffalo team. Rutgers won two straight games outright on the road as more than a TD underdog. Fans & players will be excited for the return home now that they look like a contender in the weak Big East.

    Haven’t taken a great look at the teams in depth, but the situation seems to heavily favor Rutgers here. Plus their ability to neutralize the UConn rush should play a big factor. If this line hits 7 (unlikely), it’s going to be a big play for me. Even at 8, I think there’s value.

    • Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

      Riley, I just published our weekly “Sides & Totals to consider” and Sabert has Rutgers as one of his games. I will definitely look into it.

      Thanks for the heads up. I appreciate it. Talk to you soon,

      Pez

  7. Winston says:

    Pez,

    After watching Georgia Tech mail it in the last two weeks I cannot believe Clemson is only -10. I have a sharp friend that loved Boston College last week because of the supposed Florida State hangover Clemson was supposed to have and this was without Sammy Watkins. This game will not be close, I see Clemson scoring at least 60 points unless their defense has a brain freeze defending the triple option. This is my number one pick of the week. 69-27. What is the over anyway? Clemson showed me something last week about their maturity.

    Winman

  8. Winston says:

    Just noticed the O/U on Clemson/GA Tech is 75

    • Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

      I’m seeing 74 at Bookmaker. They seem to be in agreement with you w/ that high total. GT D has been really disappointing the last few weeks. Big revenge spot for Clemson too, not that I place too much emphasis on that sort of thing, but I can’t see where it would hurt their motivation. Plus Clemson only having a week to prepare for the triple option should mean some success from the GT offense.

      I don’t tend to wager on overs that are this high, but I will put my numbers to it later today/tomorrow and see what they spit out.

      • SabertStxVii SabertStxVii says:

        Keep in mind here as Clemson gets better and better and GT looks worse and worse, the book also realizes this and realizes the public sees this as well. Is GT really as bad as losing to MTSU? Maybe. This will be GTs superbowl game and they will want to knock off one of their “rivals.”

        Not saying Clemson doesn’t role, but its a motivational factor that must be taken into account now that we have reallllly good teams (perceived) against teams that are perceived to be completely overmatched.

  9. Winston says:

    Connecticut is overated and Rutgers is underated. The sharps have bet down the line from 10 to 7 1/2 but I think they are way off here. Rutgers QB Nova can throw and I love their back 7. Connecticut won’t be able to run the ball and they cannot pass, 33-10 final.

    Winman

  10. Winston says:

    Utah-USC

    Like Utah in this spot as the running dog, I think QB Barkley is still recovering from Stanford game mentally and their lack of depth is starting to show. Cal is lousy, Syracruse moved the ball at will and we know what Hawaii is about. Got burned in this game last year by a last second weird interception that still haunts my memory. Not this time, Utah great at home as a dog. 24-6 ATL last three weeks, thinking of quitting my day job.

    • Terry says:

      Winston, I took Utah +14 a few months ago at 5Dimes, but got off of it as soon as the line opened at 13. I still figure Utes +14 at home has value, but I am liking the Total better too. Utah offense is really bad. They couldn’t do anything against ASU and BYU and I would put USC’s defense more or less at that level.

      What scares me is the Ute D. It was dominated at ASU and looked really slow. USC has arguably better skill players than the Sun Devils. So I am hoping two weeks preparation and some home cooking produce a better defensive effort from Utah.

      I agree that Utah could be able to run the football which should benefit both the side and the total. The less the USC skill players are in the field the better.

    • Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

      Winston and Terry. I was at that ASU – Utah game and both of ASU’s lines were dominant. I was especially surprised that ASU was able to have so much success against the Utah defense since that was supposed to be their strength.

      I definitely think that Utah’s defense will play a much better game this Thursday night. If they are able to limit Barkley and his dynamic receivers this should be a 24-17 type of game.

  11. Winston says:

    Pez,

    Loved ASU against UTAH, Also against CAL. THey are a dominant D, most people don’t know because they are in AZ and under the radar a bit. I really like them to beat the Ducks or keep it close.

    W

    • Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

      I am surprised as anyone at how well their defense has been playing. They are still the # 1 ranked defense in the PAC 12.

      DT Will Sutton is having a monster year and finally living up to his hype and they have a JC LB named Young (I can recall his first name) that has been all over the field. And of course LB McGee coming back from injury has been huge.

      I hope I am not drinking too much Kool-Aid, but I am in agreement that they have a chance to give the Ducks a game in a few weeks.

  12. Winston says:

    Tim,

    Got Utah at +14 1/2 -120, we will see what happens.

    Winston

  13. Winston says:

    T,

    Also got Clemson -10 and Rutgers -7. I hate favorites but I like the way both of these teams have been playing plus Connecticut has no passing O and Georgia Tech has mailed it in. Who knows? The Clemson game might be GT’s superbowl.

    Winston

  14. Winston says:

    T,

    I like Florida on the ML also, think QB Mettenberger is out of his depth in the SEC. Immobile and looks statue like. LSU D will keep this close but if they don’t put one or two scores up I really like Florida. Did you see Mettenberger against Auburn? Different story on the road than Baton Rouge. See low scring 17-13 kind of game. I really believe LSU misses the Honey Badger more than they will admit. Obviously have stout back 7 but no game changers like 2011.

    Winman

    • Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

      That is the way I am also seeing it. Mettenberger really struggled at Auburn. Don’t really like that everyone seems to be on the gators though.

      LSU always seems to find a way to score on ST’s or D and/or set up short fields. The Honey Badger not on the field seems to be having an effect in that respect.

  15. Winston says:

    T,

    I agree with everyone being on the Gators, it makes me really nervous and I have won a ton on LSU over the years. Just got the Gold Sheet (Worst Handicapping publication in the USA) (24-26 last week ATS, which is good for them) They like Clemson and Rutgers by only by a field goal each so I like my chances at -10 and -7. Two of their four best bets last week were Nebraska by 24 and Akron by 5. Everybody likes UA over Stanford this weekend -9 but I think Stanford is a great bet off that terrible showing in Seattle.

    Winston

  16. Winston says:

    T,

    What do you think about MSU/Indiana under? I like it, just got it at 47 1/2. History is all over but I like MSU D in this spot and the offense isn’t the greatest.

    W

    • Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

      I got it early in the week at 48.5. MSU D should play well here. I just hope their offense doesn’t breakout against a weak IU D. Maxwell looked like he was starting to pass the ball pretty well against Ohio State last week.

  17. Winston says:

    I will probably lose by the hook.

    W

  18. GoSooners GoSooners says:

    Anybody have the balls to play Indiana on the ML?

  19. Winston says:

    Hoosier football and the ML during big ten play is anathema, why does everybody like Vandy? It’s the touts fav this week and I went the other way. I do like MD however (got it at -4)

    Utah St !! 2-0 and today I Perish! Rutgers, Clemson Stanford and Texas Tech…. Took FLA but learned long ago not to bet against Les Miles…

    Winman

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