cat-right

jimmyshivers Week 5 ACC Football Picks

jimmyshivers Week 5 ACC Football Picks

YTD: 11-15 -12.04 units

0-7 last week.  Living it was bad enough, I dont want to rehash it.  Lets just call Week 5 the first week of the redemption tour.   Moving on..

Week 5 ACC Card:

**** Clemson / Boston College Over 59.5 -110
**** Wake Forest Demon Deacons -2 -105

**** Virginia Tech -3 2h -115
*** Virginia Tech Hokies -6.5 -108
*** Middle Tennessee St Blue Raiders +27.5 -108
*** Virginia Cavaliers +3.5 -103
*** South Florida Bulls +16.5 -105
*** Wake / Duke O 60 -107
** North Carolina St Wolfpack +2.5 -110
* North Carolina St Wolfpack ML +120
* NC St ML / NCSU – Miami O56 Parlay +301
* Virginia Cavaliers ML +155

Week 5 ACC Card w/ write-ups

**** Clemson / Boston College Over 59.5 -110

I like were getting some line value with the over here due to the recent history between these teams (7 meetings as ACC foes, only 1 match-up going over 50).  The fact is that this isn’t the BC team that we all grew to know and tolerate; they are no longer a defense-first team with a strong ground game.  Actually the defense looks like it might be REALLY bad as Miami and NW both gashed them on the ground for 208 and 293 yards and their inexperienced QB’s combined to complete 68.4% of their passes.  Now they come home off their bye to play a prolific Clemson offense that is going to run a ton of plays and really test what looks to be a really thin BC defense.  Clemson should get plenty of room up front for Ellington and Co to operate, and they have a massive edge against this BC secondary that just doesn’t have many good athletes.  Unless Boyd has an absolute stinker, Clemson will consistently move the football.

So why not just play on Clemson?  For one, it’s a tough spot to bounce back from that blown lead for a road trip as a DD favorite in a division game.   I also don’t have any faith in Clemson’s defense, in all 4 games this year their opponent has moved the ball on them (allowing 6.4 yards per play).  They still appear to be struggling with DC Venables new system, and are having issues with blowing assignments.  BC doesn’t have great athletes but they are likely getting at least 1 key WR back (Bobby Swigert and possibly Colin Lammond) which should supplement the solid start to the year for Chase Rettig.  BC can’t run the football, only 43% of their plays so far have been runs and they’ve only gone for 3 ypc (2.3 ypc vs Miami and NW).  BC will want to run the ball, but if Clemson takes it away they’ve shown their willing to let Rettig fling it around 40-50 times and let the passing game move the football.

It’s going to be tough for BC to get stops this week, their defense isn’t very big or fast and is facing a Clemson offense that is a terrible match-up for them.  BC does catch them in good spot as they are coming off a bye and Clemson is coming off that tough loss in Tallahassee with a big revenge game against GT on deck.  I just see both passing games having an advantage here, and I think the number came out a little short.  Clemson 38-Boston 31 in a fun one.

*** Virginia Tech Hokies -6.5 -108

This is a VT team with a lot to prove, and I think were getting some nice value on the # as all those “transitive property players” can’t wait to take nearly a TD with the team (Cincy) that smoked the team (Pitt) that smoked the team (VT) that’s now laying points.  But what  I see here is a VT defense who is playing very hungry and has a tremendous match-up advantage.  VT was flat-out embarrassed 2 weeks ago at Pittsburgh in a game where they overlooked their opponent and just got murdered up front defensively.  I had Pitt that day but was just shocked at the ease which the Panthers moved the football.  In general this is a very strong defensive front 7 for VT and I like their chances to win the battle up front and make Muncie have to try and throw the football.   It’s strength on strength when UC has the ball and VT is just stronger.

I’m still not buying on Logan Thomas yet, but the offensive gameplan of O’Cain and Spinesting last week was largely to take the ball out of his hands.  The ground game looked to make some traction last week and should continue to improve.  It’s not a good offensive unit yet, but they match up with a Cincy defense that is largely untested and in general not very physical.  This match-up isn’t a large win for VT until Thomas can consistently move the ball with his arm, but they have the kind of pieces that can grind out first downs and wear down the Bearcat defense.

Due to some funky scheduling this is only the 3rd game for Cincy and the 5th game for VT.   UC does have a bye here but VT is more battle tested and I really like their defensive match-up.  This doesn’t look like a very handsome game, but it does have the makings of one that VT controls and is able to salt away late.  Hokies 27 – Bearcats 13.

 

** North Carolina St Wolfpack +2.5 -110

* North Carolina St Wolfpack ML +120

This is one of my patented WTF (wrong team favored) games.  Miami gets a lot of credit from for a big win in an emotional rollercoaster of a game in Atlanta last weekend, but for such a young team it’s tough to bounce back emotionally and bring another A+ effort.  I like that NC State has played easy games the past 2 weeks, they had some major struggles on the offensive line front (surprising considering their wealth of returning experience) in the opening 2 weeks but I think they have seen some definite improvements.  Miami is coming off of 3 straight games against physical, run-first teams (KSU, Bethune-Cookman and GT) and I’ve found stretches like that leave teams somewhat beat-up in the trenches.  I’m looking for NC State to have success protecting Glennon against a Miami pass rush that has struggled (2 sacks in 3 FBS games) and that likely means a big day passing against a beleaguered Miami secondary.

I feel pretty confident NC State brings the better defense into this match-up; after struggling in W1 with Tennessee the secondary has played much better and been more adept at creating turnovers as they did last year when they led the nation in interceptions.  The linebackers will be the question mark again as  they are very raw, but  they have a fantastic position coach (longtime GT DC Jon Tenuta) who has done well at getting the most out of his units in his time here.  In the first quarter of the Tennessee game this defense allowed 22 points, but has regrouped to only allow 41 in the subsequent 15 periods.   Miami has a solid offensive line here that matches up decently here, but I just feel State has more proven playmakers on the field when Miami has the ball.

My preseason number had NCSU -4.5, and while I’ll begrudgingly admit that Miami is better than I expected, I still think this line is a little out of whack.  North Carolina St is a solid, experienced football team who should be well rested.  Were getting points with the better defense, better QB and a strong underdog coach.  I’m splitting my play between taking the 2.5 and the ML as I expect NCS to win outright.  State 35 – Miami 30.  I also like the over.

*** Middle Tennessee St Blue Raiders +27.5 -108

Taking what I feel is too many points fading a GT team in a bad spot (coming off an excruciating loss with game @ Clemson on deck) going against a team with 2 weeks to prepare for their gimmicky offense.  I would be a lot more open to the idea of GT running away here, but the Blue Raiders are pretty decent offensively and should be able to move the football against a GT secondary that has shown they are still pretty raw.  Paul Johnson is a little frustrated with the play and health of his back 7 and is burning a couple of redshirts this week to increase the depth, which could lead to some missed assignments and open spaces for a passing attack thats completing nearly 70% of their passes.  The backdoor should be open if we need it, but I feel GT kind of struggles early here and never really pulls away.  If you do like GT, I highly recommend playing the over as it will take a minimum of 50 points for the Jackets to cover this number imo..  Georgia Tech 42-Middle Tennessee 24

Saturday Morning Update:

Ran out of time for write-ups for the adds this morning.  BOL guys –JS

 

Be Sociable, Share!

5 Responses to “jimmyshivers Week 5 ACC Football Picks”

  1. SabertStxVii SabertStxVii says:

    Jimmy,

    Agree totally here about the VT defense. They should show that they are much better than the UC OL and should be able to stop the UC run.

    There are a few things I am worried about. The last time Cincy had a week off to prepare for their opponent (Pitt) they came out and went straight at the jugular. They attacked on both run and pass and kept the Pitt D totally off-balance. The extra week here may (or may not) have given them the chance to really prepare for VT.

    The other thing that really worries me is how underrated UC’s defense actually is. Right now they rank 5th in sacks and 8th in TFL. Yeah, they have played no one good, but if you look at last year, they ranked 2 in sacks and 1 in TFL. The year before that, when they went 4-8, they ranked 38 in both and 2009 they were 10th and 3rd, respectively. Somehow and somewhere, this D Coordinator is doing the right thing. On this D, they have 9 senior starters, that have seen and practiced with all of these previous defense. Now, VT will be the best OL they have seen this year. Logan is already not a good passing QB in my opinion, and if Cincy is disrupting them in the backfield while they don’t have much of a run game, that could really sway the outcome here. I also know some of VT WR are still banged up.

    With that all being said, still think that VTs defense may be able to completely shutdown the UC O.

    Do you see value playing it above this number or is under a TD the cutoff for you?

    • jimmyshivers jimmyshivers says:

      Great comments there SabertStxVii, and I get where your coming from in regards to that UC defense. Perhaps I’m being a bit simplistic but I’m not all that concerned with what happened in the Pitt game. Pitt seemed to be having acclimation issues with another new coaching staff and started out really flat, I felt like they were still in shock over the YSU game 5 days before. As I’m sure you remember since we both had Pitt, the Panthers moved the ball pretty decently (423 yards) once they settled down but just made a ton of mental and execution mistakes.

      Beamer has raved about the athletes Cincy has all over the field and as you astutely pointed out, they bring a lot of pressure and try to overwhelm teams with numbers at the LOS. Obviously, with VT’s struggles passing the ball I would expect more of the same here, but I think the OL is showing signs of progressing and shouldn’t get dominated.

      With Logan, his struggles this year aren’t at all surprising when you consider all they lost from last year. He was a 60% passer in ’11 when the spotlight was off him, and now that he has fewer weapons he’s trying to make more plays into tighter windows and he’s struggled. Hopefully the Hokies keep the ball on the ground and try to occasionally catch Cincy overcommitting at the LOS and look to hit the occasional big play in the passing game.

      While Cincy has an edge over VT when the Hokies have the ball, I feel VT has a LARGE edge when Cincy has the ball. If Cincy can’t move the football and keep their defense off the field, I feel like in time the Hokies can wear down that Cincy defense and really test their depth. I know it was only Bowling Green but VT showed me something in running the football last week.

      In what figures to be a low scoring game points where points are at a premium, I wouldn’t play it at more than 7. I briefly considered laying -7 +101 but don’t have enough confidence in this offense to warrant that.

  2. Tim says:

    Completely agree on the VT game, although I think this line was right around 7 preseason, so I don’t think there is a whole lot of value. I wa hoping for much more given the public perception of the Cincy/Pitt VT/Pitt outcomes respectively.
    I do think the under is in order. Cincy will struggle to move the ball against a good VT defense and VT’s offense has struggled against defenses with anything more than a pulse. I think the analysis onVT’s offense up top is spot on, and I like the point that they might be in mid-season form playing their 5th game, as opposed to Cincy in week 3.
    A few things to consider:
    -VT is notorious for starting slow and flat, and Saturday should be no exception.
    -this is a virtual home game for the hokies. I estimate a crown of about 65k with 90% VT.
    -this had the potential for a sleepwalk/lookahead game for VT, but with the loss to Pitt, I no longer see that as the case. Had VT won in Pittsburgh, I would not hesitate to take Cincy here.

    I don’t think I’ll play this game bc I don’t see enough value but I do like the under. This should be an ugly game with a 17-13ish outcome, at least from what I see.

    • jimmyshviers says:

      Tim,

      Thank you for commenting. I can understand your hesitation in playing VT here, they have exhibited a terrible profile for a favorite this year in that the offense has really struggled and they haven’t shown the ability to pull away from teams here. I do agree that this VT team is unlikely to look beyond Cincy, the Pitt game was such an abomination that they should still be keying on that performance and I expect it’s a powerful motivator for that defense. Lookout for new WHIP linebacker Ronnie Van Dyke, he is going to be a stud and a household name in this league before too long.

      On injury front, RB Tony Gregory is not making the trip for VT. He’s their most experienced back but hasn’t really played a ton overall as he has had 3 ACL injuries and his knee is sore this week. The plodding Michael Holmes will once again get the start.

  3. Trentmoney says:

    Loved nc st at +3.5…then it went under 3…i’ll pass and root for the outright win…just hope they’re not looking ahead to fsu

    good luck

Trackbacks/Pingbacks

  1. TSE College Football Picks – Week # 5 Summary - [...] Jimmyshivers [...]

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>