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SabertStxVii Week 4 College Football Recap

SabertStxVii Week 4 College Football Recap

SabertStxVii Week 4 College Football Recap

I am happy with how my weekend went, although I’m angry at myself for the Georgia Tech play. It’s the second time I’ve been on them this year, and I hate backing up defenses that I know can give up leads late.  Really think I’m seeing a lot of teams clearly though, especially the SEC.  Below you will find my Week 4 Recap.

Week 4 Recap

Keep in mind as season goes on, we start to figure out teams more, lines get stiffer and value becomes harder to find. There are definitely some interesting spots in this weeks card, but have to keep in mind patience and not forcing. It’s a long season and I’m really happy about the start.

Week 1: 5-3 +3.5* units , Week 2: 6-2 +10* units, Week 3: 3-3, -.5* units, Week 4: 5-2, +6.5u

Overall: 19-10 + 19.5* Units

66%, +4.875 units/wk

 Week 4 Team Takeaways

Auburn: Are they totally inept? No. Can they score? No. I don’t see them ever blowing someone out. I think this game told us more about LSU than it did Auburn.

LSU: They are vulnerable. Team struggles on offense against an easy defense. Don’t underestimate how tough it is for LSU to go into Auburn at night and play. Good win, but I am skeptical if they play a team that has a great defense.

Rutgers: Laid off this game, but my side would have been right. Rutgers is solid. Going into Arky, and winning handily. Nova looked like a QB, but of course it helps with receivers as talented as his and a good running game. Their defense is also very good.

Arky: Team is in turmoil. Coach is terrible. Feel bad for TW, but after his Tebow moment, the team looked terrible. Trouble looms.

Baylor: If they limit the mistakes early, this game is an easy cover. They are talented, but still prove to be young. Also, they have zero defense.

La-Monroe: Very impressed with their offense. Finally played a team that could score with them. I am beginning to see super powerful offenses that can pick up first downs wear down decent defenses. The game is changing a bit.

BYU: Serious offensive issues. Don’t expect the defense to bail them out every time. Need to figure out their QB situation.

Boise St: See above.

Clemson: Team can score, just were a bit outplayed by FSU. Their defense got wore down by FSUs offense. As long as the offense stays hot and balanced, they shouldn’t struggle vs. teams they have more talent then.

FSU: Team showed resilience. The defense showed some holes, but the offense covered their tails. This was one of the things I was unsure of with this FSU team. Think they will blast through their schedule.

Georgia: Just wait til they get Olgetree and Rambo back. My future bet looks better and better. The offense is keeping pace with their defense.

Vandy: Unfair to judge their offensive performance at UGA for a night game, but they are still struggling mightily on that side of the ball. If a team puts up 24+ against them and has a decent defense, Vandy is in trouble.

Illinois: Exactly as I thought. Teams with subpar offense and decent defense are getting throttled by teams with super powerful offenses and bad defenses. Subpar offense of Illi could not keep up, even against this crappy La Tech D. It makes sense,sub-par offense will make mistakes and sputter, as good offense continues to score.

La Tech: Will continue to back this team. People said they couldn’t beat a more talented Illinois. They were outsized, blah blah. Giving a FG to UVA right now? Yes please. Nothing leads me to believe UVA’s O can keep pace with this one.

Oklahoma: As I thought, Landry Jones and Oklahoma overrated, annually. Stoops was out-coached, plain and simple.

KSU: A vivid coaching advantage in almost every game. Will play a lot of close games I guess, but expect them to win quite a few of them.

Kentucky: TERRIBLE on O. Should have laid the points here. They are not scoring against a remotely decent defense.

Florida: The offense continues to start slow. Think they will struggle against a team with a very solid defense. Driskel is getting more comfortable. They HAVE to keep Gillisee healthy, he opens up so much for the offense. Defensive scores are nice too. Still the best D in the SEC I think.

Miami: Resillient win. Offense finally seemed to click. Also, really respect Al Golden, and I think the players do too. This team is young and dangerous. Watch out ND.

Ga Tech: This defense sucks. Thought they would be improved on defense after last year, but PJ is continuing to show he cannot get stops.

Michigan: Contain Denard and make him pass = Win. Defense played solid, but ND does not have a good offense.

ND: Defense is leading them to wins. They still have not played an offense that I rate in the Top 50.  This team will get so overhyped as they don’t play a good offensive team in the near future. Will fade as soon as they play one.  Their offense cannot score to keep them in those type of games.

Minny: This team can win games. People in Minny are pumped. They can start season 5-0. Getting a TD at Iowa? Seriously? Will be an ugly game, but a team that’s winning  with a better D vs a team losing to MAC teams…no brainer?

Cuse: I no longer believe this team can throw well, especially away from home.

SC: Continually impressed by Connor Shaw. The defense helps as well. They are grinding out wins. SEC East is Beast.

TCU: Always good to know when a coach is wary of the spread. Still think this offense should be more powerful than they are.

Tulane: Could literally be the worst team in the NCAA. Have a new QB with a terrible offense and bad defense. Ole Miss fumbled the ball 23482349823 times and Tulane still didn’t score.  Will probably fade them against La-Monroe.

Ole Miss: Offense is still impressive; they continue to make bad mistakes which I think you now have to factor into capping. I think this will be the best O Bama has faced (not kidding) and they should be able to score a bit. Just not sure if the defense will EVER stop them due to lack of size.

UCLA: Terribly coached. Made mistake after mistake and did not adjust.

Oregon St: Well coached. Team is getting it done and defense isn’t terrible.

 

***Fun Fact: There are 6 teams that have yet to trail in a football game: Bama, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Oregon State, Texas Tech, West Virginia.


 

For analysis, commentary, plays and randomness, follow @mtsabert on twitter.

 

 

 

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4 Responses to “SabertStxVii Week 4 College Football Recap”

  1. Ralph says:

    Great insight. Was at the ND/Mich game and your thoughts are spot on. Definitely looking to fade ND with you when they play an offense.

    • SabertStxVii SabertStxVii says:

      Ralph,

      Thanks for stopping by. Jealous that you got to be at that game — the atmosphere looked electric.

      I look at ND schedule and don’t see too many potent offenses that they face besides possibly Stanford, Oklahoma, and USC. No one that is THAT good though. It’s going to be annoying that ND will keep picking up garbage wins over teams that can’t score more than 10, and they will continue to climb in the rankings.

      Regardless, they have a good defense, we think. I don’t see them scoring 24+ though when they finally play someone that can put some points on the board, even if the other team has a terrible defense.

      Goodluck this week.

  2. Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

    Max, just read this concerning Ogletree and Rambo:

    Defensively, Georgia has started the season slower than expected. However, all nine returning starters haven’t played together yet. The Dawgs dominated Missouri on the road while missing four starters. Now, they get the final two back in Bacarri Rambo and Alec Ogletree. Collectively, Georgia is middle-of-the-pack on defense and is 6th in pass defense, something they know Bray and company will test Saturday.

    • SabertStxVii SabertStxVii says:

      Pez,

      I think Rambo and Ogletree will be able to jump right back into the swing of things here. They’ve been practicing and both are absolute studs. They will be able to plug holes where this defense needs them.

      The UGA defense resembles the Florida defense, with even more playmakers. Yes Georgia hasn’t really played a potent offense yet, but UGAs weakness on D this year is Tenn weakness on O: rushing. Georgia has been rushed on quite a bit. This is where Ogletree will step in and help. He also can significantly help the pass rush. Rambo will be a HUGE help against these Tenn WR. He led the SEC in interceptions.

      I am not totally sold on Georgia yet, but I’m starting to think that they may rollllll here.

      Another thing to remember, in the SEC (much like in the NFL), a good defense usually always prevails against a powerful O. I think that Georgia has the better of both here.

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