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Pezgordo’s Week # 5 College football Picks

Pezgordo’s Week # 5 College football Picks

Pezgordo’s College Football Picks – YTD: 27-24 ATS 

Nearly broke out last weekend, but TCU HC Gary Patterson and Michigan QB Denard Robinson thought it would be better to delay the inevitable. I went 6-6 on my posted picks and 1-0 on my newsletter consensus pick of UNLV +10.5.

Not a good weekend for my season win totals selections. UCLA, Auburn, Iowa and Utah all lost, while Tennessee and Oregon State were winners.

 

Beating the closing line

I beat the closing line in 9 of 14 games in Week # 4 and I ended up matching the closing line in 3 other games. My overall closing line value for week # 4 was +1.39.

After 4 weeks I have beaten the closing line in 38 of 54 games (70.4%), I have matched the closing line in 9 other games and I have wagered on the wrong side of the closing number in 5 games for an overall closing line value of +1.59

Pezgordo’s Week # 5 College football Picks

Virginia Tech -6

Texas Tech +1

Texas +1 (I also have 1/2 unit +2 futures wager, so I’ll make this one a 1.5 unit wager)

SMU +17.5

Michigan State -2.5

Virginia +3

Oregon State +3 (-113)

Early Totals

Stanford – Washington U 48 – WINNER

My write-up and analysis for this game is here. I know we only have a very small sample size to work with, but both these offenses are down substantially from last season. Whereas the Stanford defense continues to play well and UW’s appears somewhat improved.

Texas – Oklahoma State U 69.5

UCLA – CU U 59

I am using this game as our BEST BET at College Football Zealots. We have won our last three picks there and are now 3-1 on the season.

CMU – NIU U 59.5

Boise State – New Mexico U 52

Ole Miss – Alabama O 54.5

I used this pick for our weekly SEC video selection (3-1 on the season). Offensively I think Alabama has very little problems moving the football and scoring on a young, undersized Rebel D. The real question is how will Ole Miss do offensively? First of all everyone knows that Alabama has a good defense, but I believe it is way overrated “statistically.” This Alabama defense has had the good fortune to play Michigan in the first game of the season. Thus they had all summer to prepare for Denard Robinson and the Michigan offense, which as we saw last week at Notre Dame, isn’t all that anyway. Then they caught Arkansas without their NFL caliber QB Tyler Wilson.

Again, I am not saying this is not a good Alabama defense, but let’s see how they play against a competent offense at full strength. Once you get past the Bama defensive line, their is a lot of inexperience in the back seven. The Rebel up tempo, no huddle offense could cause some confusion. This is an offense that put up 399 yards and 31 points on a very good Texas defense. They have some playmakers and are capable of testing a talented, but inexperienced Alabama D.

From Saturday Down South

Ole Miss averaged 64 plays per game in 2011, with 4.4 yards per play. This year, under Freeze, the Rebels are averaging right at 72 plays per game and 6.8 yards per play. To put it in perspective, Oregon averaged 72.5 plays per game in 2011. So, this offense presents a different challenge than what Nick Saban and his staff have faced thus far.

 

 

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8 Responses to “Pezgordo’s Week # 5 College football Picks”

  1. Doug says:

    Bol as Always. I wonder which will go O for this week?..
    That 26-5 will most likely be the Best ever..?

    • Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

      Thanks Doug. As long as whoever goes 0 fer comes back the next week like GS, we’ll be fine.

      That 26-5 has definitely set the bar pretty high and will be something to shoot for.

      BOL to you too and thanks for all your support.

  2. Doug says:

    I will say one thing for you, you are one Brave Under player. With Everything in favor of the offense, not to mention OT rules i stoped playing unders a few years ago. BOL to ALL.

  3. tom says:

    i thought earlier you liked west vir and under utep?

    • Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

      Tom, I did jump on West Virginia -11.5 when the line came out Sunday. I subsequently got off that game on Tuesday. Here is a write-up I did for the CFBMatrix as to why I got off the Mountaineers:

      http://cfbmatrix.com/last-one-out-5/

      I was never on the Utep total, though I do have a lean towards Utep +4.5 this week. However I have not yet capped the game in detail.

  4. Riley says:

    What’s your read on SMU? At first glance, I see a team with a great D, playing against a team that’s given up more than 45 points twice. TCU’s offense isn’t great, but only giving up -16 to SMU? Plus their coach plays for the spread!

    • Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

      Riley, first off 17.5 was too many points. It’s now currently sitting at 15/15.5, so I’ve gained some line value.

      Second, road fav’s coming off straight up DD wins hit at about a 46% rate ATS. Third, teams that avg less than 28 ppg (I do not include and non-FBS competition in my numbers) cover at around a 46% rate ATS.

      Lastly, and this one is probably a long shot, but last year SMU ran the ball pretty well and they do have a good RB in Zach Line, so there is the possibility of them being the running dog.

      Thanks for the question. I hope my explanation helped and please feel free to ask me anything else.

      Pez

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