Pezgordo’s College Football Picks – YTD: 20-18 ATS
A pretty disappointing week as I nailed some really good underdogs (went 5-1 w/ dogs), but gave it all back with some heavy chalk (which is uncharacteristic of my betting style) and a handful of terrible totals. I ended up going 6-7 on my posted picks and 1-0 on my newsletter selection.
UCLA, Auburn, Iowa and Utah were all winners for my season win totals selections. Tennessee was a loser and Oregon State did not play.
I beat the closing line in 9 of 15 games in Week # 3 and I ended up right at the closing number in 3 other games. My overall closing line value for week # 3 was +0.67.
After 3 weeks I have beaten the closing line in 29 of 40 games (72.5%), I have matched the closing line in 6 games and I have wagered a bad number in 3 games for an overall closing line value of +1.66
Vanderbilt – Georgia U 55
This line has dropped to 51 after RAS released it as one of their picks yesterday (Thursday), so I hope everyone was able to get on this game beforehand. Actually 51 is also a strong number, but obviously for an under, 52 is better.
Jimmyshivers has a good write-up on this Virginia – TCU game here.
Illinois -3 (-105)
It looks like Illinois starting QB Nathan Scheelhaase will be good to go this week: http://collegefootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/09/19/scheelhaase-close-to-100-percent-expects-to-play-vs-latech/
Clemson – Florida State U 57
Missouri – South Carolina U 48.5
Colorado State +13
I used this pick as The Saturday Edge’s weekly “Best Bet” we do for College Football Zealots. You can check out my write up here. We have won our last two picks over there and are 2-1 on the season.
Utah – ASU U 50
I’m allowed to wager on ASU if it is a total. PAC 12 opener for both teams, so expect a hard fought battle. Surprisingly the ASU D is in the top half of the PAC 12. Not surprisingly so is a good Utah defense. This game should be strength vs strength, ASU’s high octane offense vs Utah’s stout D. Devil’s defense should be able to neutralize a very mediocre Utah offense (and that’s being kind). I don’t expect either team to have too many big/explosive plays. The Devils didn’t have many last week against Mizzou and Utah’s D is just as good.
Miami – Georgia Tech U 62.5
Good key number here, 62. Next most likely number combination to beat you would be 66. With everyone thinking Miami is going to get run over by the triple option because K-State and Bethune-Cook ran for 200 yards plus on them, that looks too obvious. I have a feeling that Bethune-Cook had so much success last week because Miami spent more time at practice defending the Georgia Tech triple option than they did against whatever it was that Bethune-Cook was going to run last week.
And we all know how (un)successful Georgia Tech’s triple option has been when teams have extra time to prepare for it (look no further than an overrated Virginia Tech in week # 1). In addition Miami has had recent success against Georgia Tech’s offense because they have the athletes on defense to slow it down.
Auburn +21 (-118)