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Pezgordo’s Week # 4 College Football Picks

Pezgordo’s Week # 4 College Football Picks

Pezgordo’s College Football Picks – YTD: 20-18 ATS 

A pretty disappointing week as I nailed some really good underdogs (went 5-1 w/ dogs), but gave it all back with some heavy chalk (which is uncharacteristic of my betting style) and a handful of terrible totals. I ended up going 6-7 on my posted picks and 1-0 on my newsletter selection.

UCLA, Auburn, Iowa and Utah were all winners for my season win totals selections. Tennessee was a loser and Oregon State did not play.

Beating the closing line

I beat the closing line in 9 of 15 games in Week # 3 and I ended up right at the closing number in 3 other games. My overall closing line value for week # 3 was +0.67.

After 3 weeks I have beaten the closing line in 29 of 40 games (72.5%), I have matched the closing line in 6 games and I have wagered a bad number in 3 games for an overall closing line value of +1.66

College Football Picks Week # 3

Arizona +24

VanderbiltGeorgia U 55

This line has dropped to 51 after RAS released it as one of their picks yesterday (Thursday), so I hope everyone was able to get on this game beforehand. Actually 51 is also a strong number, but obviously for an under, 52 is better.

Virginia +17.5

Jimmyshivers has a good write-up on this Virginia – TCU game here.

Illinois -3 (-105)

It looks like Illinois starting QB Nathan Scheelhaase will be good to go this week: http://collegefootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/09/19/scheelhaase-close-to-100-percent-expects-to-play-vs-latech/

ClemsonFlorida State U 57

MissouriSouth Carolina U 48.5

Maryland +26

Colorado State +13

I used this pick as The Saturday Edge’s weekly “Best Bet” we do for College Football Zealots. You can check out my write up here. We have won our last two picks over there and are 2-1 on the season.

UtahASU U 50

I’m allowed to wager on ASU if it is a total. PAC 12 opener for both teams, so expect a hard fought battle. Surprisingly the ASU D is in the top half of the PAC 12. Not surprisingly so is a good Utah defense. This game should be strength vs strength, ASU’s high octane offense vs Utah’s stout D. Devil’s defense should be able to neutralize a very mediocre Utah offense (and that’s being kind). I don’t expect either team to have too many big/explosive plays. The Devils didn’t have many last week against Mizzou and Utah’s D is just as good.

MiamiGeorgia Tech U 62.5

Good key number here, 62. Next most likely number combination to beat you would be 66. With everyone thinking Miami is going to get run over by the triple option because K-State and Bethune-Cook ran for 200 yards plus on them, that looks too obvious. I have a feeling that Bethune-Cook had so much success last week because Miami spent more time at practice defending the Georgia Tech triple option than they did against whatever it was that Bethune-Cook was going to run last week.

And we all know how (un)successful Georgia Tech’s triple option has been when teams have extra time to prepare for it (look no further than an overrated Virginia Tech in week # 1). In addition Miami has had recent success against Georgia Tech’s offense because they have the athletes on defense to slow it down.

Auburn +21 (-118)

Michigan +6

 

 

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11 Responses to “Pezgordo’s Week # 4 College Football Picks”

  1. GoSooners GoSooners says:

    Something tells me Ga Tech does the same thing to Miami that they did to Virginia last week. GT looks like they could be a hot ATS team right now. Much like what they were in the first month of last season.

  2. Snow says:

    Did I just see something on espn about a key tcu player being out of commission?

  3. Bobbyjones2 says:

    Ga Tech is a great play this week. Listen, if a defense has a hard time stopping a team, that lines up in the I, then how do you expect them to slow a play where it takes an extra split second to figure out who has the damn ball? Ga Tech going to run all over this young un disciplined Miami team. Beauty of taking Tech, is that when they do get up comfortable, they keep doing what got them that lead. Run the flex.

  4. Seth says:

    Anyone touching the Oregon Arizona total?

    • Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

      Seth, Vegas can’t seem to set Oregon totals high enough, but I think 79 is starting to get a little too high … and it’ll probably keep rising before kickoff.

      Ducks supposedly have their best D since Chip Kelly has been there. Cat D is nothing special, but it’ll still be the first BCS defense Oregon has seen all year, and RichRod knows a thing or two about spread options.

      If you like over, you’ve already lost out on a TD worth’s of line value (opened at 72 I believe). I guess I could still see a 52-28 type of game, but I think you will be biting your nails up until the end to get (or not allow) that final score.

      With Ducks though, you almost have to think over or pass. With the line having risen an entire TD, I’ll pass.

  5. alkimyst says:

    Love Utah under. I don’t think the linesmakers have adjusted to the idea that Utah has a pretty good defense yet. Same logic led me to take BYU under last night as well.

    • Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

      Great call on BYU under. I nearly pulled the trigger on that one myself, but stuck w/ my +8.

      I don’t think ASU’s D is as good as BYU, but they still should be able to slow down a very average Utah offense. From what I’ve seen the past two weeks I would say that ASU’s offense is better than BYU’s. so a good Utah D will be tested tomorrow night.

      21-17, 24-21 wouldn’t surprise me though. that is what I am banking on.

      GL alkimyst

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