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GoSooners College Football Picks for Week #5

GoSooners College Football Picks for Week #5

GoSooners College Football Picks for Week #5

Last Week: 3-5
Season: 14-14-1

 

 

Texas Tech (-1) over Iowa State **

Michigan State (-2.5) over Ohio State **

Ole Miss (+31) over Alabama **

Tennessee (+14 -120) over Georgia **

Iowa/Minnesota (under 46.5) **       (bought out of Iowa -7 & just playing total)

Indiana (+11) over Northwestern **

Texas (-2.5) over Okie State **

 

Texas Tech (-1) over Iowa State **

We don’t know much about TT based on their only competetion being FCS and AQ teams. But they are a team I had tabbed preseason to show a good sized improvement this season based on returning starters, and the fact that they not only lost a ton of players to injuries last season, they were season ending injuries that required operations. So many players are back this year including the very important experienced depth. Keep in mind that TT was going along fine last season at 5-2 before the injury bug hit this team hard on defense at just around the time of the OU game. And they quickly went downhill from there and lost their last 5 games and failed to make a bowl for the first time in something like two decades. But this season should be much different as long as they don’t get hit by the injury bug again. Seth Doedge is the most underrated QB in the Big 12. And he’ll have a group of veteran WR’s to throw to. And RB’s Stephens and Williams make an excellent one-two punch. Both went over 100 yards rushing on New Mexico last week. So this team isn’t all about passing like TT was in the Leach era. They can hurt you in many ways. They didn’t have this last season after RB Stepehens went down with a knee injury. But so far to my eyes, it looks like a much different  Tech team this year. A team still flying under the radar in my opinion. I think they’ll take care of business against an ISU team that so far isn’t up to standards with their offense this year. And they’ll need it to keep up with TT in this game.

 

Michigan State (-2.5) over Ohio State **

I think public perception is keeping this line down. Despite their loss to Notre Dame, i still think MSU is the class of the Big 10. So far all we have seen from OSU is a couple closer than expected games against AQ teams, and a near loss to a middle of the road Cal team. MSU has played the tougher primetime games against the better teams. In fact I think the ND team who beat MSU would easily win the Big 10 this year. MSU found themselves in a letdown/sandwich spot last week against Eastern Michigan. I expect a much sharper game out of Sparty this week. They should easily be able to cover this short of a line.

 

Ole Miss (+31) over Alabama **

Although I think Bama may be the best team we have out there right now, I’m not quite 100% sold on them until they start getting into the meat of their SEC schedule. Their defense hasn’t really been in a fair test yet. They had all summer to gameplan for a sort of one-dimensional Michigan offense. And their other 3 opponents have consisted of 2 Sunbelt teams and a hot mess Arkansas team who has a senile/crazy old coach and was playing without their star QB. Although we all know that unless a miracle happens Ole Miss won’t win on Saturday, I do respect the sound coaching on this team. And if there is anybody who can gameplan for an opponet on offense, it’s Hugh Freeze. Ole Miss gained 400 yards and 5 ypc on a pretty good Texas defense.  I think they can at least have some minor success against a young Bama defense. Enough to where I believe they have a decent chance to stay within the number. This will be Bama’s 5th straight game. I think they’ll just be looking to put Ole Miss away as quickly as possible so they can get to their bye week. My gamble here is I believe Ole Miss can score 14+ points in this game, and keep it within the number in a 42-17 type of game. I think Bama has gotten to the point that LSU has gotten to this year with the Vegas oddsmakers. Their lines are getting  a little bit more outrageous with every win. For instance this is the biggest point spread over another SEC team in Saban’s 5 years at Bama. And Ole Miss isn’t even the worst team in the SEC. Give me the Rebels.

Tennessee (+14) over Georgia **

Georgia played pretty close to a perfect game last week against Vandy. I don’t know if this is a sign of things to come, or more of an abberation and win over probably the second weakest team in the SEC. No matter how you look at it, this has to be a lookahead spot for Georgia. Or at least they’ve got to be taking a peak at what is ahead next week when they go to South Carolina in a revenge game, and what could be for all of the marbles in their division.. But first things first. We know the Vols aren’t as strong as the first 3 teams in this divison, but they are still a more talented and dangerous team than Vandy was. And if you don’t bring your A game against them you can run into some big problems.. I think the Vols sleepwalking win over Akron last week was just a lookahead game. Tennessee knows that if they go down 0-2, their divisional win chances are gone. That’s why I look for them to put up a pretty good fight. So far Georgia has shown they are the weakest of the run defenses between the Big 3 in that division (130 ypg). If the Vols can have just a little more success against Georgia than they had against Florida in trying to run the ball, it might just open the game up for Bray to trade completions with Murray. I also still feel like we’re getting a little line value with Tennessee. Just two weeks ago they were -3 point faves over Florida. And now they are +14 dogs to Georgia. Is Georgia 17 points better than Florida? Maybe, but I seriously doubt it. With a Vols team that averages 500 ypg on offense, I give them a punchers chance here to stay within the number.

Texas (-2.5) over Okie State **

Wes Lunt was walking around in a brace as late as Wednesday. He was suppose to practice on Thursday. But now has been downgraded to doubtful. I don’t think OSU can beat Texas with that other freshman QB. He’s more mobile, but he’s going to be running for his life. If the QB situation wasn’t so questionable for OSU I would probably lay off the game. But seeing what Arizona did against OSU’s defense, I don’t think OSU will be able to bring enough offense in this game to make up for what they are going to give up in the running game.

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32 Responses to “GoSooners College Football Picks for Week #5”

  1. Doug says:

    These 4 seem quite popular here… BOL this week as Always.

  2. GoSooners GoSooners says:

    Doug, the only one of these games that I’m sold on for the moment is Texas Tech. I got these lines when they first came out. I’m going to look at these other games thoughout the week. If I don’t like them I’ll buy them back. But these Big 12 games were games that I had pegged in the preseason as “play on” games. Right now the only one I’m comfortable with is TT. West Virginia should beat Baylor. But even though the WV offense is strong, their defense is pretty weak. So at a DD spread, the backdoor is always open with this team. But if WV can’t beat Baylor by a couple TD’s at home, their going to have a lot of trouble when they go on the road in the Big 12. As for Michigan State, I like my play, but it almost looks too easy. I’m going to look at this game a little further too and see if I’ve missed anything. But MSU does look like the class of the Big 10 despite their loss to ND.

  3. Doug says:

    Thanks for the response. Again i am Not sure about that TT game at all. Iowa St Always puts up a Great struggle at home. I myself stoped laying points on the road long long ago. You know LOTS of the weaker teams Always play well, to very well at home and usually get a few calls as well. I will be on the other side of TT and Texas…..Maybe we will split…lol
    Sooners in Big trouble Again this year.

  4. GoSooners GoSooners says:

    Doug, I understand your reasoning on Iowa State/TT. But that game for all practical purposes is a tossup line with the spread hovering between 1 and 2. So TT isn’t going into Ames as big favorites. I still think this is very much of an under radar team. And they do have a pretty sizeable talent edge on ISU. Like I said, I’m not sure I’m going to make Texas a play. I took that line early just to get a good number. But if I don’t feel comfortable with it, I’ll buy it back.

  5. Doug says:

    Understand about the buyback. Down through the many years that i have been around the Big 12, one thing has always kinda stood out to me. Home teams are sooo strong. Som etimes as you know the Home team catches some home cookin calls. The Sooners of old were Famouns for that in Norman, others seemed to have followed, or so it seems.
    I just took +3 with IS and OSU. As in most things time will tell. BOL to you and the Group as Always.
    That 25-6 record a few weeks ago will be the ALL time record…..? JMHO

  6. Matt says:

    GS, I like ISU here. They’re a very well coached team, they’ve had a week off to prepare for Tech and they always pull an upset or two each year. ISU is playing at home and Tech has OU up the following week. This could be a look ahead game for the Red Raiders, who will be ripe for an upset. Just some things to consider…

    • SoonerBS says:

      There is no way this is a “lookahead” game for Tech after ISU beat them at Lubbuck last year 41-7. This is a revenge game for Tech here. Last year ISU beat them the game after Tech upset Oklahoma. It was a classic “letdown” spot for Tech. This game they go giving ISU their full attention.

      Here is a fact on this game — even as well coached as ISU is, they are still less talented and Tech has a huge edge here offensively. The first thing I would question here (and I did as I took Tech -2), is, can Tech play enough defense to stop ISU from outscoring them? I can say this, it was a known point of emphasis in the offseason to concentrate on making the defense tougher and better than what they have had since Tubberville has been there. Tubberville comes from the SEC and he knows what kind of defense they need to have in college football. This offseason he hired Art Kaufman as the new defensive coordinator. Kaufman is the first DC Tubberville has had under him since taking the Tech job that has had more than 3 years coaching at the FBS level. I know Tech has not played any stiff competition yet, but so far they have showed a great improvement defensively. I personally believe that they are going to show better defense in conference play than they have in the past and will be the surprise of the Big 12 conference.

  7. GoSooners GoSooners says:

    Matt, I understand where your coming from. And I’m always hesistant to bet against the home teams in the Big 12. But TT has also had two weeks to prepare for ISU as well. And there is no way TT will be looking ahead to OU when it’s their first conference game of the season on the road no less. TT has started out 3-0 too. They’ll want to keep it going. I always respect the coaching of Rhoades. But I think Tubby is also an underrated coach. And he has the better personnel of the two teams. Like I said, this was one of my preseason “play on” games because I feel the public will underestimate TT in this early game. If you want to know a couple other “play on” games I had pegged before the season, I like Iowa State and the points when KSU comes to town the week after KSU plays one of their biggest games of the year against state rival Kansas the week before. That game is always big because the winner gets a hand up in the in-state recruiting wars for the best JUCO players. Many may not know that Kansas is the best state in the country for producing JUCO talent. The week after that game will be a big letdown spot for Kansas State when they go to ISU. Probably as big favorites. Another spot I like is OU going to TT in a couple weeks. This is a double situational spot for OU coming off a loss and a road revenge game against the Red Raiders. The line should be fairly short for OU. Especially if TT wins at ISU like I think they will.

  8. GoSooners GoSooners says:

    By the way guys, Michigan State and Texas Tech are official plays. West Virginia isn’t. That game was an early buy like Texas. But I’m still looking it over. My main concern with WV is their defense. Baylor has the offense to possibly backdoor this game. So we have to be careful with this one. I’m always hesistant to give DD points on the spread in these early conference games. As we saw with OU/KSU, it’s not a good idea no matter where they play.

  9. Dave says:

    Go Soners,

    Thanks for the input, what do you think about Arizona St + the points @ Cal?
    I leaning towards the Sun Devils.

  10. GoSooners GoSooners says:

    Dave, I looked at the game tonight. ASU does have the better defense getting points. And no matter who ASU played at QB, he would be better than Maynard of Cal. If I had a lean it would be ASU. Just keep in mind that ASU has historically not done well in California. In fact their record is downright terrible in that state. So you need to keep that in mind. ASU on a 4 games ATS winning streak to start the season.

  11. alkimyst says:

    I have been riding ASU the whole year. Not getting off the train now! Give me the better defense and the points!!

  12. GoSooners GoSooners says:

    alkimyst, I much rather keep riding the hot ATS streak than try to beat it. So I can’t blame you one bit for taking ASU. Many people are making Cal their biggest play of the week. But as far as I can see, it’s strictly based on history and that ASU is due for a fall. It could happen, but I bet nobody told ASU that. I think it’s always chancy to bet against teams that are doing everything right. They aren’t covering those games off luck. Their playing good football.

  13. The CHIEF says:

    boys, im back from last week…. Some ups (Clem with a cover) and downs (GT, UVA) from last week. Let’s try to have some dialogue here….

    I like West Kentucky again! Got em earlier at +1, now at -2.5, get them now. This team is for real.

    I also like San Jose State -2.5 at Navy. 3-1, only loss to Stanford by a fg, and 4-0 ATS… and Navy is not good!… across the country and at their stadium i understand, but this is a superior team.

    There is not much value in ASU. CAL at home, solid squad – if it was 3.5 i can see liking that side – i wouldn’t touch that

    I don’t love MSU here… i think they’re overrated… i understand the nice D, but i think everyone is undervalueing Cousins from last year… guy was a stud and the absolute leader of that team… i would def wait til it hits 3 cuz it will, but i dont like them on the road with the athleticism of the OSU qb

    ALthough UGA has been impressive, i woudl like TENN at +14… TENN has been dogshit against solid teams since fulmer left, but that is a lot of points in the SEC, and even though the spread is down to +13, but i still kinda like it

    I like Stanford -6.5 a little for some thursday action… good D and runs the ball which travel well… Kinda like the under in this game as well

    I would like to hear thoughts on UCONN -16… Buffalo might be the worst offensive football team i’ve ever seen, and at home this could be an easy cover

    What does everyone think of Texas at -3? I’ve been very impressed, and not impressed by okla st. I might buy the 1/2 point even and take them but would like your Big 12 thoguhts.

  14. The CHIEF says:

    Other games

    Iowa – not sure here… I don’t like teams that have not shown offensive explosiveness, or even decent offense at all, to cover a 7 point line

    I liked Ole Miss vs. Texas. Ole Miss isn’t good. Their D is not legit which makes me think they are not good value to cover here. And I’m sorry, the Alabama D is very good if you’ve watched them. You can see it just by watching them.

    Hate to throw salt here, but would love to hear your thoughts.

  15. GoSooners GoSooners says:

    Chief..Judging by the 13 games that WKU has covered in a row, I give them a good chance to cover this weekend. And Arky State looks as beatable as the rest of the teams that they’ve taken care of this year.

    I’m probably going to lay off the SJST game. I think they probably are the better team. But I’m not crazy about AQ teams crossing several time zones to go cover a spread as favorites. I think they can do it, but if Navy ever plays a clean game where they don’t have such a big TO margin deficit, i think they can compete with these kinds of teams. But I’m having trouble getting too excited about either team. Is there anybody who isn’t on SJST this week? That’s another thing that kind of bothers me about the game.

    I feel pretty much the same way as you do about Cal/ASU. I don’t see much value on that line. Tell you the truth I’m kind of surprised to see some people making this their big bet of the week. And it all seems to be based on the trend that ASU never wins when they go to California. And Cal is due for a win. But ASU having the better defense getting points is a stronger argument in my opinion.

    The more I look at my MSU play the less I like it. But my original play on them was because they are the better defensive team playing pretty much a tossup game at home. I usually side with the home team in these cases. But I’m well aware that braxton Miller is a playmaker. I downgraded this play from a medium to a small 2 star play.

    Tennessee hasn’t looked good in Dooley’s first couple of years there. But you have to consider the mess he inherited with the musical chair of coaches that came through. I think things are slowly starting to settle down. I do like his DC Sunseri. I’ve heard this guy is pretty sharp. If there’s anybody who can draw up a defensive gameplan for Georgia, it’s this guy. Bray always gives this team a punchers chance when the Vols are big dogs.

    On paper I like Stanford. But I don’t care how good a team looks, I don’t like taking rookie QB’s making their first road start. That alone probably narrows the gap in this game considerably unless the kid is something special. But he didn’t look like Andrew Luck against USC. Many will probably disagree with me, but I don’t think Stanford is going to be a good ATS team this year. Whenever I see teams win 10 games ATS the season before, they usually take a freefall the next season. In Stanford’s case, after they beat USC they aren’t going to be the dogs anymore in their games, and they won’t have the talent of Andrew Luck bailing them out of tight games and keeping the foot to the petal against the weaklings. I would be very surprised if they make it above .500 ATS this season. Same goes with LSU. They won 10 games ATS last season. They won’t be getting favorable lines this year. As we saw at Auburn when they too went on the road with a rookie QB and almost got beat as 21 point faves.

    I haven’t given much thought to the UCONN game. Is that Buffalo RB healthy? He was out for the Kent State game last week. Before that he was the leading rusher in the country. If he can’t go, then I kind of favor UCONN. They are a team that I had pegged to do well ATS this year. The only thing you may have to consider here is UCONN has their first conference game against Rutgers next week.

    As for Texas, I actually took them at +1 when the lines first came out. But I only put a half a unit down on them instead of making them a full play. I’m not totally convinced of Texas defense just yet. Ole Miss gained 400 yards on them and averged 5 ypc. If they can do that I know OSU can. Give Gundy two weeks to gameplan for you and he can be deadly. The reason I can’t call this game either way is because of the OSU QB situation. I’m not sure if Lunt is playing or not. I know this team has played much better on defense since their DC Young came back from sick leave. They really missed him when they went to Arizona a few weeks ago. Tons of defensive mistakes made in that game. It was just against ULL, but OSU looked very sharp to me on both sides of the ball in that game. Don’t kid yourself about OSU, they are still a strong and confident team after winning the Big 12 and their BCS game. If they go down, they won’t go down easy. And Stillwater is a very difficult place to play when the big dogs come to town. I think Texas might be the better overall team, but OSU has a hell of a good coaching staff. They’ll be ready for them. It could be the best game of the week.

    As for Iowa, I liked the way their offense played in their last game. Ever since they discovered RB Weisman, they’ve looked much better. He averaged 8 ypc last week. I’m figuring he can come close to those numbers against Minny. Just a feeling, but I think they have a breakout offensive game this week. I just don’t think Minny is very good. Talk about a team who is stuck in the mud on offense. They are just as bad if not worse than Iowa when you consider how weak Minny’s opponents have been. We’re talking about a team who only scored 17 against Syracuse. 28 against Western Michigan, and in the UNLV game they had only 13 points after regulation. And then score some extra points in OT to pad their offensive numbers. Now they’ll probably be starting a backup QB on the road.I still feel after their performance last week that Iowa will come into this game angry. I’m sure they’ve heard all week how shitty they are. So I expect them to have a chip on their shoulders. If they can’t get it done this week against a paper tiger like Minny, then they never will and this will be a long year for Ferenz. Maybe his last year..

    I could be dead wrong about Ole Miss. But like I said in my writeup, that’s a big number to cover against a divisional foe. If I can get 14 out of Ole Miss I think they can cover this spread. BOL

  16. tom says:

    i thought you also liked west vir this week?

  17. Riley says:

    Hey man,

    I’m on the opposite side of all three of our common plays; Georgia, OSU, & Minn.

    OSU/MSU is a tough one. I’m not impressed w/ either offense but I think Braxton’s play-making out shines Bell’s.

    The only worry in the Georgia/Tenn game is a backdoor cover. Georgia is a far better team, at home. Look ahead doesn’t scare me. There’s a chance this gets out of hand and UGA wins by 30.

    IU/UM I am playing UM pretty heavy. When you talk about SOS, I think you overrate Iowa’s schedule thus far. ISU is alright but no one else they struggled to beat is a very good team. And when you look at UM; yeah, they only scored 17 against a bad Syracuse D, but they also held Cuse to 10, 7 of which came on a garbage TD with less than a minute left. This was against a Cuse team that was averaging 33 coming in and had put up 41 on NW. Neither the WMU or Cuse game was as close as the score shows. I think this game ends up being a FG game and unless Iowa hold UM under 10 points, I don’t think they cover. In fact, I’d say it’s a toss up on who wins straight up.

    Good luck on your other plays though! haha

  18. Riley says:

    Also, the O/U in the UM/UI at 46.5?! That under feels so good! I see this game being like 13-10. No way both can up over 20 to get this over, right?!

  19. GoSooners GoSooners says:

    Tom..I am on West Virginia. But I only played them for a half a unit. I don’t feel strong enough about the game to make it an official play. I want to see WV play a Big 12 team first before I start making any big plays on them. I know one thing, if they can’t cover 11 points at home against Baylor, they won’t win in Austin or Stillwater. So I’ll be an interested spectator this Saturday. I also have a half unit on Texas at +1. That’s another game where I’m not sure if I want to make it an official play. I would kind of like to see Texas play one more time. This time against a quality opponent, before I become a believer.

  20. GoSooners GoSooners says:

    Riley, I seldom buy back bets, but I think you hit the nail on the head with the under. I’ve been thinking about that total all day. And I might do it. I’m waiting to see if the total goes back up to 47 in one of my books. But there’s a good chance I’ll buy out and get the under. I’ve been on the Hawkeye websites today, and have been reading that the coaches are saying the Iowa receivers are getting better each week, and are starting to get seperation. Which is a big positive. Plus they have that new walk-on RB that i think is going to work out well for them.

  21. GoSooners GoSooners says:

    Guys, I bought out of my Iowa play and am just playing the under for the game. I still think Iowa wins. But in a low scoring game I’m not crazy about needing two scores to win my bet. As good of a situational play it is for Iowa, I’ve never liked betting against a trend that has hit 72% of the time in the past 6 years. “Conference road dogs of 3 or more points in September games cover 72% of the time when the total is under 49.” This game fits into that trend Auburn at +21 covered under this trend last week vs LSU

  22. SpartanDawg says:

    Auburn was a home dog last week…

  23. GoSooners GoSooners says:

    I stand corrected with Auburn. They were a home dog.I wish there were more of these kinds of games that came up in September. Conference games don’t usually get started until the last week of September or October..So we’ve only got a small window to have that kind of play. BOL this week.

  24. Trentmoney says:

    I’m on the Longhorns as well
    good luck to us

    • Trentmoney says:

      actually took -125 on the ML because with Fera out i don’t trust that kicker…i could see a missed xp somewhere in that game

  25. GoSooners GoSooners says:

    Good idea. I’ve had more placekickers mess up my bets than just about anything else. Especially last season. Luckily I bought this line at Texas +1 when it first came out, but have had second thoughts about posting it until now. Rain is in the forecast, which doesn’t make the kicking game any easier.

  26. Winston says:

    UlM, OHSU, AZSU look good, Minny looked like they should have stayed home.

    Winman

  27. GoSooners GoSooners says:

    Minnesota was a paper tiger like I thought they were. ASU is the real deal. I’m very impressed with that team.

    • Trentmoney says:

      Cal shot themselves in the foot….ASU definitely better, but 11 penalties for over 100yds, 4 resulting in 1st downs for asu…a holding penalty that brought back a 31yd pass right before half that could have resulted in a score….fumble in their own territory 2mins left in first half led to asu score….

      if they didn’t burn me last week i would take cal at home +3 vs ucla this week as the second mouse usually gets the cheese but i’m gonna pass because i don’t feel like getting burned twice by the same team…but if you didn’t take cal last week i think they are a good play this week

  28. GoSooners GoSooners says:

    Trent, I’m looking at Cal/UCLA as a possibile play. It’s not like the mistakes/penalties that Cal made against ASU are a reoccuring problem. If they played a clean game like they played against OSU then I think they can beat UCLA. I’m waiting for my rankings to come out for this week. If they are pretty close to the line for the game, I might give it a shot. At least for a half a unit if nothing else.

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