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jimmyshivers Week 4 ACC Football Picks

jimmyshivers Week 4 ACC Football Picks

11-8 +10.64 units

3-3 last week, finished up a little less than a unit following my POD Louisville coming in.

This is one of the most lopsided cards in recent ACC memory, as all 9 games have a favorite of at least 7 and 8 of the 9  feature favorites of 2 TD’s or more.  Truly a week to pick our spots and watch out for the big favorites who can might lay an egg and who will roll.

ACC Week 4 Card:

*** Florida St Seminoles -14.5 -103
*** Virginia Cavaliers +17.5 -108
*** Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets -15 -101
*** Duke / Memphis Over 62 -110
*** West Virginia / Maryland 1h Under 31 -110
*** North Carolina TT Over 40.5 -110
*** 3 Team ML Parlay -113
                Wake Forest
                  Florida St
              Georgia Tech

 

 

 

ACC Week 4 Card With Write-ups

*** Virginia Cavaliers +17.5 -108

Just too many points  for a team that has a lot of really good pieces and will be looking to rebound from a game against GT that really got away from them early and snowballed. I would argue that UVA has played 3 games against teams better than anyone TCU has played, and that they represent a massive step-up in class for TCU here coming off a game against a woeful Kansas team. I just expect UVA to finally find a bit of traction on the ground and move the ball a bit against a TCU defense returning 5 starters that has yet to be tested. My preseason numbers made this game TCU -7, and neither team has shown me anything that I didn’t expect which would cause me to change that. I’m not high on the Wahoos this year, but I think they bring a bounce back effort and keep this one close. 27-20 TCU..

*** Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets -15 -101 (sold 0.5)

Once we got past 14 here key numbers were off the board and I was willing to sell off of 14.5 for reduced juice.  Miami is in a lot of trouble here, they are razor thin defensively and have been exploited every week so far this year.  I can’t get the image of Klein and KSU running all over them in Manhattan out of my head, and even Bethune Cookman ran for 233 yards last week (the run defense currently ranked 102 nationally after facing only 1 good rushing team).  Let’s also not forget about  BC throwing the ball all over the park in week 1 .  Miami has some talent on the defensive side of the ball but it’s very young talent (this was before losing starting LBs Buchanon and Perryman) and now is facing something that most of them have never seen before in this GT flexbone.  The Jackets thrive on catching guys asleep and out of position and it’s likely Miami will have issues with assignment football on Saturday.

Obviously Duke Johnson is a guy to keep an eye on, he looked great against both BC’s but was invisible against KSU.  Georgia Tech doesn’t have anyone who can run with him, but I feel they match-up well on the defensive line and should limit his opportunities to break big runs.  Miami has been reliant on the big play (6 of their 10 TDs from plays of 40 yards or greater) but may struggle to generate them against a much improved GT defense.     This is a hungry Georgia Tech team with plenty of experience playing with confidence with a solid coaching advantage.  I liked the Jackets last week, and I think they roll again.  Miami gets blown out here but bounces back to win as a short home doggie against my Wolfpack next week.  GT 49-Miami 24.

*** Duke / Memphis Over 62 -110

Duke is an over or pass team right now, their defense is still really banged up and the offense is throwing the football 44 times a game right now (and thats with two 20+ point wins where they went into extended victory formation).  The Duke offense has scored a lot but they’ve been fortunate in that they’ve really benefited from defensive scores and turnovers in their key wins.  Normally this may be an indicator for an under play, but listening to Cutcliffe this week he still isn’t happy with the execution of the offense.  A crucial game against Wake is on deck next week, so this is the last chance to really fine tune the engine.  I just don’t see how Memphis gets stops here considering they gave up 483 yards and 33 ppg to Ark St, MTSU and a FCS team.  Duke should get  to 40-50 by themselves with their banged-up defense giving up to the rest.  Duke 52-Memphis 24

*** Maryland / WVU  Under 31 1h -110

Expecting Maryland to play well defensively and consider to struggle to move the football here in a step up in class for them.  WVU offense looks great and Geno is on that Heisman tip at the moment, but this is a pretty solid defense for Maryland that has a strong defensive line.  In the 2h WVU may pull away when their superior depth shines through but I expect the Terps to be able to ugly it up.   Also looks like it may rain, which should inhibit WVU a bit from showing their superior speed. 14-3 WVU at the break.

*** North Carolina Team Total Over 40.5 -110

Just don’t have a good enough feeling about where UNC’s defense is to play the game over, but I do feel pretty good about NC being able to move the ball on an ECU defense that I don’t think is very physical and will struggle to get stops.  I expect NC to get Gio Bernard back (though HC Fedora is very cryptic with his injury reports) which makes their ground game extremely dynamic and really allows them to stretch the field.  Not quite expecting the fireworks of the Elon game, but this is a big game for NC coming off 2 close losses and I’m expecting Fedora will want to put his high-octance attack on full display here.  Heels 48 – Pirates ?

*** 3 team ML parlay -113 — Wake, Georgia Tech, Florida St

I really like Wake this week, it’s not often they are they have the better coaching staff AND the better athletes in a game.  I’m just don’t trust this offense yet enough to cover numbers as chalk, but this is a good match-up for them to get Price, Harris, Camparano on track against a really soft Army defense.  Wake should be focused, the word out of Winston is that practices were very intense this week as they were flat-out embarrassed in Tallahassee over the weekend.  I wish we had DT Nikita Whitlock to really stymie that option, but Wake dedicates offseason time to it every year and most of these defensive guys have seen it every year.  Wake 31-Army 24

*** Florida St Seminoles -14.5 -103

I’m reading a lot of commentary about how this is a trap line, or that it’s just too many points this week, and honestly I don’t see it. My preseason power numbers made FSU -13.5, which is right where this line opened up.

Clemson beat FSU last season, but it was in a game that I feel comfortable discounting heavily as FSU was extremely banged-up  and coming off a loss to OU that derailed their national championship train (they would go on to lose to Wake Forest the following week).  It was an obvious talent mismatch last weekend against Wake, but I got the feeling watching FSU that this is a very hungry team who are very dialed in.  The argument has made that we don’t really know much about Florida St, but I’m not sure how much we know about Clemson either.  Both teams haven’t really played anyone to hang their hats on  (Clemson’s top win against Auburn looks less impressive weekly) so to me the stats are a little bloated for both sides and essentially meaningless.

As many others have astutely commented, this game comes down to what happens in the trenches.  If you think Clemson acquits themselves decently, then taking the 2 TD’s has a lot of value as the skill position talent levels are pretty close.  For me though, I see this absurdly deep FSU defensive line giving a raw Clemson Oline all kinds of headaches and I expect the Noles to be able to generate pressure on Boyd out of some of their more basic sets.  If Clemson counters this with shorter drop backs and attempting to hit Watkins, Hopkins and co in the flats, FSU has the speed in the secondary to limit their ability to break big plays.  Those guys are too talented to be kept in check all game long, but I don’t see them getting consistent success on the edges of this defense.

This Seminole offense isn’t a dominant one, and I don’t necessarily expect them to be one here.    But I do think they’ve made significant strides in developing a ground game that lets them control clock and gradually move the football.   Obviously the Clemson defensive talent level is better than anything they’ve seen, but I’m not sure that the Tigers have figured out what their trying to do and where their supposed to be on that side of the ball yet.   I look for Florida St to be able to win the battle in the offensive trenches here and wear down this Clemson front as the game goes on and eventually start to hit them for big plays as the back 7 has to provide additional run support.  It may take awhile, but eventually FSU should be able to move the football and control tempo.

These are easily the two most talented teams in the league, and the marquee match-up in the ACC in 2012.  The winner here has a great shot at being that BCS title contender that the ACC has craved for so long.  Clemson’s greatest offensive strength is their ability to wear you down with a deep pool of athletes and blistering tempo, and FSU is extremely well suited to consistently match-up with that.  I think it’s probably a 7-10 point game at the half, with the Noles frustrating Clemson and pulling away in the 2nd half.  I also played a small parlay of FSU with the under.  FSU 35-Clemson 13.

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8 Responses to “jimmyshivers Week 4 ACC Football Picks”

    • jimmyshivers jimmyshivers says:

      Could be a big loss there, at the very least it may limit his effectiveness. Biggest ? here is the UVA secondary against Pachall, but if they don’t have to respect the run as much they can be a little more confident.

  1. John Weaver says:

    TCU opening game in their refurbished stadium with 50,000 Frog fans! Patterson a vastly better coach. Be very careful with this game. TCU will not turn it over 4 times in the red zone again.

    • jimmyshivers jimmyshivers says:

      Did they not open the new Carter stadium against Grambling? Patterson is a great coach but my point is that their making you pay a premium for his services here when his team that is replacing 10 starters has yet to be tested. TCU probably will not have 4 redzone turnovers, but they also won’t be going against that terrible KU defense. I just don’t see the talent edge for TCU that dictates this kind of line respect. BOL with your plays this weekend and thanks for reading

      • Trentmoney says:

        was gonna take gt -13.5 but my biggest play of the year is UM u7 wins so i basically have gt pk on saturday…

        good luck

        • jimmyshivers jimmyshivers says:

          Trent,

          I was very late to that party, and only have it under 6.5. Obviously not as much value but I’ve seen nothing so far to dissuade me from feeling good about it.

          Actually a little surprised your not looking the other way here. Miami winning 3 straight in this series and a 17.5 spread swing from 2001 are usually the kind of things that have caught your attention in the past. Are you just that down on this Miami team? We essentially have a 2 TD middle to shoot for here if your thinking long term.

          BOL this weekend

          • Trentmoney says:

            my initial thought when i saw gt -13.5 was to take the wreck…miami def is a sive…hard to change your play once you have a certain view…big picture i don’t have to pull the trigger on anything until they have 4 or 5 losses…7-5 i push so if that happens but i win a few hedges there’s still a profit…at 4 losses i can start “managing the trade” if i so choose as one more loss gives me a push, thus a risk free wager…who knows, this team could end up 4-8 and i won’t have to do a thing!!

            good luck

  2. John Weaver says:

    Jimmy,you are correct, Grambling was the opener.Im still picking the frogs. Good luck!

Trackbacks/Pingbacks

  1. Pezgordo’s Week # 4 College Football Picks - [...] has a good write-up on this Virginia – TCU game here. Be Sociable, Share! …
  2. SabertStxVii Week 4 College Football Picks - [...]  Jimmyshivers has a great write-up on this play already, but I will just add a few things. [...]
  3. TSE College Football Picks – Week # 4 Summary - [...] Jimmyshivers [...]

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