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GoSooners College Football Picks For Week #4

GoSooners College Football Picks For Week #4

GoSooners College Football Picks

Last Week: 4-3-1
Season: 11-9-1


Clemson (+14.5 -120) over FSU **
Michigan (+6 -120) over Notre Dame ***
Utah (+7) over Arizona State **
Illinois (-2.5) over La Tech **
Colorado State (+13) over Utah State ***
Miami – Georgia Tech (Under 62) **
UNLV (+10.5) over Air Force **
Virginia +18 **


 

Clemson (+14.5 -120) over Florida State **

When I look at these two teams I don’t really see 14 points difference. They both have about the identical amount of starters back from last season in which Clemson went 10-4 and FSU went 9-4. But it should be noted that Clemson went 10-4 in playing 5 ranked teams. FSU went 9-4 in playing  2 ranked teams. It’s true that FSU’s victory over WF was pretty impressive. But when you think about it, the Noles basically had 3 weeks to prepare for WF since all they had was glorified scrimmages against two FCS teams to start the season. They won’t get that kind of prep time against a dangerous Clemson team who is much better on both sides of the ball than WF. On the other side, Clemson has basically had two weeks to prep for FSU since all they had was Furman last week. And if it’s somebody who knows this FSU offense it’s Clemson DC Brent Venables, who faced the Noles twice when he was DC at Oklahoma. This should be a knock down drag out fight because both teams know that it’s basically for all the marbles in the Atlantic Division. I think FSU wins it. But I look for a closer game than expected from the two most talented teams in the ACC.

 

Illinois (-2.5) over La Tech **

It looks like Ilinois will get QB Scheelhaase back this week. And I think this is the key to Illinois having success in this game. His experience was sorely missed when they went to ASU a couple weeks ago. That was a bad spot anyway for IL having to travel a couple time zones for a late night game without their QB. This week will be a different story. Illinois will be playing in their second straight game at home while La Tech travels for the second time in three weeks. The problem I have with LT this year is that up to this point they aren’t showing near the defense that they showed last season that helped them to cover 10 games. But I think it is a completely different situation with this LT team this year. So far through two games they are giving up nearly 600 ypg on defense. And this was against AQ teams. What is just as troubling is they’ve had to endure 204 plays in the last two weeks! And now they have to go on the road again and face a more physical BCS team in almost a pickem game. I don’t see it. If Illinois has any life at all on offense, they should win this game.

 

Michigan (+6) over Notre Dame ***

college football picksMany are calling this a letdown spot for Notre Dame. I’m not sure I can depend on that angle. But I do think this is a more challenging matchup for the Irish than people think. Unlike last week, they’ll be facing a better rushing offense with the most dangerous mobile QB than anybody they have faced to date. Last week ND didn’t have a mismatch at QB. This week they will. I still think Brady Hoke has one of the very best coaching staffs in the country. And with just playing UMASS last week, have basically had two weeks to prepare for ND. Many are expecting the same type of game we had with Michigan/Bama. I’m not. ND isn’t near the explosive offense that Bama is. And they don’t have the the experienced national championship winning QB McCarron. I think the QB is the big issue here. Unlike Michigan State, i think Michigan has the offense to put up some points on this ND defense and force them to stay up. It may not be an easy thing to do for a rookie QB who I’m sure Hoke has been gameplanning for the last 2 weeks. It should be a good typical close primetime game like it usually is when these teams get together.

 

Utah (+7) over Arizona State **

I expect a close game in the desert between a new program with a new coach vs an established program that knows a thing or two about playing defense. I admit this could be a bad spot for Utah after playing a tough game with their state rivals. But I’m going on the premise that Utah can get up for two games in a row being this early in the season and  this being the important first conference game. I see no real advantages here for Arizona State except the home field advantage. Everything else looks about even with these two teams. ASU has the better offense, and Utah has the better defense. I usually lean with the points and the better D.

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18 Responses to “GoSooners College Football Picks For Week #4”

  1. Doug says:

    BOL with you card this week as Always. Clemson sure looks to be the right side.
    Looking forward to the rest of your selections. Your viewpoints on the Sooners this week would be nice. We will have a Much better idea of the Sooners after saturday night.

  2. GoSooners GoSooners says:

    Doug, I haven’t made a decision on the KSU/OU game whether I want to play it. I agree that we’ll know much more about OU after Saturday. This is the main problem that I’m having with the game. OU’s schedule is a bit different this year with that extra early bye week. By now OU usually has played a decent BCS opponent opponent before they’ve played their first conference game. And we have a pretty good idea about them. But not this year. Two things I’m not sure about is the OU offensive and defensive lines. And whether KSU can withstand the OU passing attack better than they were able to do last season. Gun to my head I lean KSU because of their running game. But they are a pretty square play right now with 60% of the public on them. Public dogs make me nervous. Especially when the public isn’t moving the line. BOL this week.

  3. Wes says:

    I would love to see your write up on Illinois. Their defense has a lot of play makers and they returned a lot of guys from a top 25 defense last year but I wonder if that had more to do with Vic Coening (last years DC). I’m not sold on this year’s coaching staff on that side of the ball after the Debocle at asu. Their offense really struggles without nate scheelhouse so that will be a key factor for them. Lastly, I’d like to add playing in Champaign is not like playing in Norman at night. Not saying its a bad play, just curious on your angle. In closing, I love the site and follow your write ups every week.

  4. jimmyshivers jimmyshivers says:

    GS, I hated to go against your Clemson play, but I really like FSU this weekend. I’ll be interested to see your thoughts on that Miami / GT under. Good luck this weekend, my friend

  5. The Falcon says:

    GS: is Michigan +6 your strongest play tomorrow, if not what is? thanks

  6. GoSooners GoSooners says:

    Jimmy…The more I read on the FSU/Clemson game the less I like it. But I’m going to stick with my play and not buy it back. If both of FSU’s lines are as overly superior as they say then I’ll probably lose my bet. But I’ve still got to see Manuel be able to pass the ball against a live opponent before I become a believer.

    With Miami/GT I feel that with Miami just playing Bethune-Cook last week, that unlike GT’s opponent Virginia last week, the Canes have basically had two weeks to prepare for GT’s option offense. I know that Miami doesn’t have the defense that they’ve had in past years, but I feel they can slow down a methotical offense like GT’s enough to keep this total under the number.

  7. GoSooners GoSooners says:

    Falcon, I like both my Michigan and Colorado State play. I think this is possibly the best situational spot in football for CSU. Utah State is coming off a very disappointing come from ahead loss to Wisconsin in which Utah State held a big lead 14-3, only to lose that lead and then miss a last second FG to win the game. They now have to pick themselves up off the floor and go try to cover a big spread against an opponent on the road as DD favorites. So basically we have what is probably already a tired team who has played two BCS teams in a row and is probably down a little from a loss, and is being asked to go cover 13 points in the altitude of CSU on the road. Very tough spot for Utah State.

  8. SoonerBS says:

    You guys are brave playing on Colorado State at all. I’ll leave it at that.

    I also think you are brave playing on Virginia at TCU. I understand the reasons why, but TCU tends to be a different animal at home.

    I wish you luck on all your plays this weekend. :)

  9. alkimyst says:

    good Luck with your plays this weekend. I think Clemson has a shot to win outright, htough I know weird things happen in Tallahassee, especially at night. I had not thought about Illinois yet, but I like your angles on that game. I had no idea that LT was giving up that kind of yardage.I have been looking at Michigan all week, though I have not palyed the game yet. I like backing Senior QBs, even better when playing against a young QB on the other side. I also think ND is starting to get to the over-hyped stage, which might explain some of this line movement. All of the talk this week has been about the Irish resurgence. I’m not fully sold yet. do you have any thoughts on the Okl/KSU game??

  10. RED EYE says:

    good luck with your card GS ! I’m on Michigan, VA, and Clemson… Rubberband game scenerio with CSU is something I might get on board with too

    • Trentmoney says:

      GS-

      Nice to see you hitting 55%…keep booking profits!!

      Gonna take the other side of your utah play and lay the -6 with the sun devils

      Utah offense has been downright awful the last 2 weeks vs fbs (utah st/byu)…they followed a 2/17 3rd down conversion with a 4/16 outing…that’s 6/33 for 18%..!! They have only 4 offensive tds (one fumble ret td), all the result of short fields from fumble recoveries/ints and a long punt return…ASU can score, and back in the comfort level of Tempe, i would be surprised if they scored less than 30…remember utah st moved the ball effectively vs utah, and byu offense is well below avg statistically

      I do think that ASU has the potential to start getting over-rated real soon, but I’m gonna keep rolling with them for now, and look to start fading them once their spreads start reaching DD or short favs/dogs on the road

      good luck

  11. GoSooners GoSooners says:

    SoonerBS…I think we’ll finally get an idea of just what kind of team everybody has this week. TCU got a late start to the season, and all we have to go by with them is Grambling and Kansas. My gut feeling is with just 11 starters back along multiple suspensions before the season that is going to affect depth, along with retooling an OL and replacing both a very good kicker and punter, this may not be quite the same team that we’ve seen in the past. We’ve already seen this with teams like Wisconsin and Boise State. I could be wrong about Virginia/TCU. But it’s one of those games that with what I’m seeing on paper from TCU, they’ll have to show me first before I become a believer. CSU/Utah State is a gamble too. But it is a bad situational spot for Utah State. One that doesn’t come up very often. I think that game all comes down to their state of mind. If they can somehow refocus after losing a game like that to Wisky, and playing two physical BCS teams in a row than going on the road as big favorites, more power to them.

  12. GoSooners GoSooners says:

    alkimyst…If the KSU line gets up to +17 I might hit it for a small half unit bet, or play it in a parlay or teaser. I just couldn’t bring myself to make it a full play. There’s just too many unknowns with OU right now. My feeling is Mike Stoops will have a pretty good defensive gameplan for KSU, but I’m not sure enough how our offense will perform to be laying a lot of points in an early conference game.

  13. GoSooners GoSooners says:

    Trent, I’m still not sure how to measure Arizona State. This will be the 3rd week in a row that they’re playing a team without their starting QB. I do think Utah has a better defense and coaching than either of ASU’s first two opponents. And after watching BYU’s defense last night, Utah is definitely hitting a softer stop unit this week than they did last week. So they might have a little more offensive success than we think. After seeing the musical QB’s that Graham tried to juggle at the worst possible time of the game last week, I’m not completely sold that they still don’t have the same QB battle they had in fall camp. I guess we’ll find out about everything we need to know about these two teams after this week. You got a great number at -6.

    • Trentmoney says:

      i waited patiently all week for the current line of -6… and while it didn’t work last week, graham has been bringing eubank in at the goal line…i had +7.5 with asu last week but also have mizz u7 season wins so i would have really liked to have added a loss on to mizz record…i also wouldn’t crown the byu defense just yet, as wsu gm 1 weber st and boise aren’t exactly murderer’s row as far as offenses go…and remember, utah scored a fumble ret td, so their offense only scored 17pts…

      btw-i know you read my GOY article…i mentioned, based on early season schedules, that scar -4.5 vs mizz could represent some value…i thought it was a one point risk to possibly make 6 pts…well that line looks to be settling right about 6pts from the line i got at 10.5… the only reason i play the GOY lines is a possible good number in the first month of the season

  14. GoSooners GoSooners says:

    Trent, I came very close to buying that SC -4.5 GOY line. I actually think the -10.5 is probably still good. The only reason i didn’t play SC this week was the possible QB issues. I also took Texas A&M under 7 wins. I could be wrong on that team because they’ve looked a little better than I thought. Then again, they still haven’t left the state of Texas. I think both Mizzou and A$M are going to find those SEC houses very unfriendly compared to the Big 12. I also think in this first season as members, these SEC teams are going to go out of their way to rub the score in on these teams once they get them down. That will be their welcome to the S-E-C

    • Trentmoney says:

      i made a mistake with my futures…
      I have Miami u7
      I have Mizz u7.5
      Big difference…

      good luck

      and yes, part of the reason why i think ASU will be over rated real soon is that eventually they will have to face a real starting qb….

  15. GoSooners GoSooners says:

    Guys, a few leans that I have this week that I’m going to play for a half unit each and probably throw into a small parlay:

    Army-Bad spot for WF after getting manhandled by FSU 52-0. It’s hard to pull yourself up off the floor and also prepare for an option team all in the same week. Plus Wake has never had much luck with option teams. Army improving every week.

    WKU-This team has won 12 games ATS in a row. I may ride WKU until they shit the bed.

    UCONN-Bad offense, but getting another favorable line this week. This was one of my preseason spread beaters teams. So far they are 3-0 ATS. And as long as they are very short faves or dogs, I think they might remain a good play

    Troy-A Sunbelt expert i know told me to watch this Troy team. They are going to be better than people think. Their coming off a close loss to Miss St. last week and dropped their first Sunbelt game to ULL in which they outgained them by 200 yards but turned the ball over 4 times.. I think they’ll put extra emphasis on this game to keep from going 0-2 in conference play.

    Washington State-Yes, Colorado really is this bad. And Leach won’t hesitate to rub in the score if they should get a big lead.

    Kansas State-I’m waiting to see if this line gets up to 17, then I’ll jump on it.

    LSU/Auburn under 48.5-I already bought this one for a half unit. LSU doesn’t have the same kind of no huddle quick hit attack as an ULM team that Auburn faced last week. This game will be at a much slower pace. With a QB making his first road start, I expect LSU to be a little more methotical on offense with the run game and wear Auburn down. I would be very surprised if Auburn can score more than 14 in this game.

    Vanderbilt-The more I look at this game the more I like Vandy. I think Vandy’s loss to NW and Georgia’s big win over Mizzou has driven this line up. But these are two SEC teams, and the familiarity factor will kick in for this game, and I believe it could be closer than the 2 TD spread. Remember how DD in the SEC used to be the kiss of death for the faves?

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