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jimmyshivers Week 3 ACC Football Picks

jimmyshivers Week 3 ACC Football Picks

YTD: 8-5 +9.97 units

Went a very decent 5-2 in week 2 of my ACC football picks, and hit most of my leans as well.  At this early point in the season I’m still basing plays off of my preseason notions, with increasing consideration being given to what we’re learning every Saturday.   In my opinion weeks 2-4 can offer a great deal of value if our offseason evaluations were accurate and we stick to the value that we see against the (over)reactions of the market based on early returns.

My free time aside from handicapping is pretty short for the next few weeks, so I’m keeping the write-ups a bit on the lighter side for awhile.  If anyone has specific questions I’ll be more than happy to expound where I can.

Week 3 ACC Plays:

**** Louisville Cardinals -3 -110
*** NC State / South Alabama Over 51 -102
*** Boston College / Northwestern Over 53.5 -110
*** Maryland Terrapins +3 -115
*** Pittsburgh Panthers +10 -108
** 2 team parlay +154 Wake +27/Georgia Tech ML
** North Carolina Central Eagles +37.5 -110


Week 3 ACC Plays:

*** NC State / South Alabama Over 51 -102

Looking for the Wolfpack offense to get back on track this week.  In some ways this play is similar to the Clemson Over from last week in that I’m banking on a big performance from a heavy favorite that struggled a bit offensively the previous week.

The expectation here is that State makes a big effort to get the offense back on track, and stays aggressive offensively a bit longer than you normally may.  The game to get the back-ups serious minutes is next week vs the Citadel, but this week it’s important to hone that offensive cohesion that Bible and company expected to hit the ground running with this season.

A big thing that was missed by some from last weeks game vs UConn was just how terrible the weather conditions were.  There was some pretty strong wind and intermittent rain that left areas of the field really difficult to play.  NCS didn’t go for a late FG in the 4th that would have covered the number because conditions were so poor on that end of the field; the conservative TOB instead opted to go for it on 4th and 2.

After an unimpressive start to the campaign State will be looking to make a bigger splash in their home opener vs a drastic step down in competition.  To me, that means lots of points. State 45, USA 17.

*** Pittsburgh Panthers +10

Yeah Pittsburgh has looked absolutely awful, and backing them last Thursday was a real easy way for me to lose 2 units.  I can’t resist getting back on the wagon with the panthers as the DD home doggie here.  A big part of the play is going against a Hokie team that hasn’t proven they really can do anything very well offensively and going on the road for the first time.

The VT offensive hallmark has always been that the run the football.  So far this season, it’s been a bit of a struggle for them.   The OL has struggled in run blocking (3.9 ypc) which has left the offense in a lot of long yardage situations (only 41% on 3rd downs).  Logan Thomas has been pretty inconsistent so far in the passing game and it remains to be seen just how much of the load he can bare.  For what it’s worth, the oft-maligned Tino Sunseri has a higher completion percentage, more yards per pass and a 2-1 TD-INT ratio.

As bad as Pitt has been, VT has also struggled and find themselves at 0-2 ATS.  This is a gut check game for Pitt; I look for a big effort from a team looking to get their season back on some kind of track.  The Hokies haven’t proven they have the kind of consistency offensively to go on the road and be trusted to cover DD spreads.  It takes a strong running game to pull away from teams for VT and they’ve yet to show they have it.  The Hokies schedule has left a relatively inexperienced secondary untested here versus an experienced QB who should be able to move the football and put some points on the board.  I like this to be an ugly and low scoring game that is still very much a contest in the 4th quarter.  VT 21-Pitt  17.

*** Maryland Terrapins +3 -115

Watched this UConn team last week against my Wolfpack, and just don’t see how they can move the ball against a competent defense.   Huskies have no balance offensively and teams with good front lines like Maryland can really choke out that ground game.  NCSU struggled to get pressure last week and it didn’t matter, they just couldn’t complete passes.  Maryland has a much better defensive front and will be able to generate pressure.  Essentially I see this as an ugly, low scoring game where I’m getting points at home with a team with a huge chance to really make a statement in favor of their maligned coach.  Terrapins have had turnover issues but I feel like in general Hills is giving them solid QB play and he is making pretty good decisions.  Maryland is a pretty young team but I assure you that everyone who is still there WANTS to be there.  Terps continue their surprising start and win a close one.  21-18 Terrapins

*** Boston / Northwestern Over 53.5 -110

Simply playing the over with a BC team who has an offense that is still catching totals like it was last year.  Really helped us here that Miami got waxed so badly last weekend, as this total shows that the books aren’t crediting BC like I feel they should.  BC offense is much more balanced than it’s been under Spaz, OC Doug Martin has Rettig feeling comfortable and it’s shown in his production (5-1 TD-INT, 330 yards per game so far).  Look for BC to be able to mix it up and move the football on a really young NW defense that’s struggled in the secondary (343 yards allowed in the air to Syracuse and Vandy).  As high as I am on the BC offense, the defense doesn’t have very good athletes and should be exploited by Fitzgerald and their intermediate passing game.  The offenses are the strength here and I expect both to be able to throw the football.  34-31 somebody.

**** Louisville Cardinals -3 -110

Heels back 7 got picked apart by Tanner Price last week, no reason to think that the excellent Teddy Bridgewater doesn’t do it to them this week. Heels ground game really struggled without Gio Bernard last week and he didn’t make the trip with the team yesterday to Louisville (doubtful to play) so I feel Lou has a great chance to make them 1-dimensional. Heels have some decent wideouts but no one who can consistently stretch this Louisville defense if the ground game isn’t keeping them honest, so look for Louisville to really attack them up front. Brynn Renner took a big hit on the goal line against Wake last week and wasn’t the same afterwards (12-26 post hit), it remains to be seen how his (either ribs or head, depending on who you talk to) injury will affect him. Bottom line is Cardinals have the much better defense, better coach and a dynamic QB who will really test the discipline of this NC defense. Carolina is going to have to prove their ready to go win tough games against well-coached teams on the road. Cardinals 35, Heels 24

Note:  added a unit after I learned J Boyd out for NC, imo makes them even more 1-D offensively..

** North Carolina Central Eagles +37.5 -110

Just a simple Duke fade here, this team is really banged up defensively and their 2nd and 3rd teamers aren’t all that much better than what Central will send out there. Cutcliffe talked all week about how poorly they played in all phases of the game at Stanford last week and how this week was all about ‘getting back to basics’. When Cutcliffe says things like that (happens at least once a year) they usually work to simplify the playcalls and just really focus on execution. These two schools are three miles apart and this is their second meeting of a series that will be repeated several times over the next few years in the ‘battle for Durham’. Cutcliffe playing a bit of a goodwill ambassador here in Durham and I think he’s likely to take the foot off the gas early. When your as banged up as Duke the whole point of games like this is to STAY HEALTHY so may rest players earlier than normal. Duke secondary is very, very banged up so look for Central to be able to move the football decently. Keeping this one small for pretty obvious reasons, but Duke has never won by this margin in David Cutcliffe’s five years as HC (only won by 30+ once, 3 years ago against a Central team that was Div II at the time). All signs also point to the backdoor being wide open if we need it.

BOL guys.

2 Responses to “jimmyshivers Week 3 ACC Football Picks”

  1. SabertStxVii SabertStxVii says:

    Jimmy, really like the Maryland play. Probably going to tail you a bit on this on just for a small amount. It will work out that by the time people realize that Maryland isn’t as bad as everyone thought, you will stop betting on them, and i will finally feel comfortable putting money on them again haha.

    What are your thoughts on UConn’s D? Obviously their stats are padded by beating up on the worst team in the NCAA, but we know this was a strong point. Can Mary score on them?

    Any value on the under?

  2. Trentmoney says:

    Hey JS,

    Good to see you on the site…best of luck for a profitable season

    I’m gonna push back a little against you with the BC/NW play…I just took u55…this total last year was 44…i think the books are giving BC too much credit for an offense that played a horrible defense in Miami and an FCS team…Reiting was next to last in qb efficiency last year in ACC and was 16-32 last week vs Maine…i’m just not a believer in him…highest total for BC all of last year was 52 and that was vs high powered clemson and it went under…total for miami game was 43…this is also NW’s highest total of their season and that was vs Vandy who has better skill players than BC and Syracuse who has a qb who i’ve heard from scouts will be drafted in April…just don’t think there are enough explosive players in this game to be the 4th highest total on the board of games involving two BCS teams

    good luck


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