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What’s your top college football blowout for week # 3?

What’s your top college football blowout for week # 3?

What is your pick for the top college football blowout in week # 3? I have three games that I think could get pretty ugly this week. I would like to hear your thoughts on these games and please feel free to suggest any other potential blowouts in the comments section below.

Auburn -16.5

Auburn has not looked very good in their first two games and they looked especially bad last week at Mississippi State. However, both those games were against BCS-bowl caliber teams. This week War Eagle will be taking a big step down in competition when they take on the UL-Monroe WarHawks, fresh off “The Shock in Little Rock.”

I see this as a great situational spot for Auburn. This will be their first home game of the season in a must win spot in order to get their season back on track. But what I really like is ULM having to go back out on the road to another SEC venue a week after the biggest win in school history. No way they are going to be emotionally up for another round of physical, SEC football.

Wisconsin -14

I wrote about this one in my week # 3 college football picks thread. I really believe this is a good situation for Wisconsin and a bad spot for Utah State. The Badgers loss last week in Corvallis had to be an eye opener and should definitely serve as a wake up call for this team. I also believe that after that ass-kicking and the subsequent firing of their OL coach, Bielema will be lighting a fire under all the coaches and players this week.

Utah State on the other hand  just beat their biggest in-state rival for the first time in 15 years. How focused are the Aggies going to be this Saturday after that win last week? I have to believe they are higher than a kite right now and are reading and hearing all about their heroics in the local (and national) media this week. Now they have to make the long road trip to Madison and face a pissed off Badgers team in need of a W. Can you say OVERMATCHED?

Nebraska -24

College Football Blowouts

Nebraska QB – Taylor Martinez

I wrote up a pretty long comment on this week’s Nebraska game here. Again I see this as a really good spot for Nebraska. They are coming off a tough loss against UCLA in which their defense was run over (through and around) by the Bruins. Now they go back to Lincoln and take a major step down in competition in a situation where I have to believe Pelini will be stressing defense all week long.

The Nebraska offense should have little trouble scoring on the Red Wolves defense. I watched the Oregon game and the Red Wolves D is really bad. Nebraska’s offense isn’t Oregon, but it is pretty good and I just don’t see Arkansas State holding them below 50 points. Oregon literally started subbing at the 7:03 mark of the 2nd quarter up 50-3. Had they so desired, they could have easily scored 100 points. Nebraska may not be so benevolent.

Arkansas State QB Alpin is pretty good, but in that Oregon game, all but 3 points were in garbage time. The Nebraska D may not be up to their usual standards, but my guess is Pelini and the Cornhuskers will want to make amends for last week ‘s debacle in the Rose Bowl.

- Pez

 

 

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19 Responses to “What’s your top college football blowout for week # 3?”

  1. SoonerBS says:

    I think Oklahoma State will blowout U-La-La this weekend.

    I am rethinking my UL-Monroe play I made earlier this week. I may see what the line goes to and then try to middle it instead. If I lose, then I would only lose juice.

  2. Seth says:

    NIU -3 over army!

  3. GoSooners GoSooners says:

    Seth, It’s way early in the season and i definitely could be wrong, but I think people might be making too much out of Army’s blowout loss to SDST. Army had a big disadvantage in that spot with SDST already having played a game, and then Army having to go on the road and play their first game of the season. Army HC Ellerson said he was clearly surprised with his team’s performce in that game, and don’t expect the same kind of performance this week when they come back home. The problem I have with NIU blowing out anybody this year is they lost all of their major players on offense.

    • Seth says:

      I was being somewhat facetious. I do like NIU to cover though. My logic is NIU is slightly better than SDSU and SDSU crushed Army. Yes, SDSU was at home and it was Army’s first game, but I just don’t think Army is all that good. I expect Army to play better but I like NIU’s rushing defense (they return 8 starters) so I’ll roll the dice.

      As an aside, do any of you guys use Sagarin’s ratings as a proxy for spreads? Develop your own power rankings? If you use Sagarin, then NIU should blow out Army. I’m not saying I rely solely on it, but it is one of many confounding tools I use to make an educated guess.

  4. GoSooners GoSooners says:

    Seth, I lean to the under 49.5 total in the Army game. I’ve used Keepers ratings for the last few years http://home.comcast.net/~keepersfootball/site/

    • SoonerBS says:

      Keeper’s ratings have been really good for the games I have used them on this season. I am like you, I have used them for some time. I like Keeper’s because they also have ratings for the FCS teams which comes in handy whenever I want to play some of the FBS vs. FCS matchups.

  5. Sendacash says:

    Pez, Do you see any chance for a possible Auburn look ahead to their game the following week as big home dogs vs LSU? Or will they just be focused on getting the skunk off their backs while Monroe has the emotional letdown.

    • Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

      Sendacash, I would believe that at 0-2 and now having to play a team that just beat the #8 ranked team in the country, Auburn really can’t afford to look ahead.

      However, if Auburn comes out gangbusters and gets up big early, I could see them doing an Oregon and shutting it down. Hopefully that doesn’t allow ULM to come through the backdoor.

  6. Marlin says:

    My pick was Wisconsin I love that game

  7. FadeMeToWin says:

    Alabama -20 The Tide played sloppy last week and Saban worked them hard. This may be over at half. Arky QB has not practiced all week which can’t be a good thing for them either.

    • Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

      I don’t disagree w/ this pick. I doubt Wilson plays. He didn’t practice today. I went under and I’m worried Bama scores too many points.

      • FadeMeToWin says:

        I just saw that he DID practice today but no contact and not yet cleared to play. Play or not, I still like Bama as the play and we might get some line value if Wilson is cleared to play.

        Good Luck

      • Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

        I just can’t imagine they let this kid play this week. With or without him they are probably looking at a loss, so why risk him. A lot of football left this season.

    • SoonerBS says:

      I guess I’ll be the only dissenter to this play. I am playing on Arkansas +21 (bought a hook). We all agree that Arkansas played like horseshit last week. We also agree that they need Wilson to QB. However, I liked Alabama in this spot a lot better before Arkansas got beat last week. At least then we had two advantages: 1.) We would have got Bama at a TD or less, and 2.) They wouldn’t be coming into this game thinking Arkansas is weak because they got beat by a Sunbelt team last week.

      Alabama getting up for a BIG game is lethal. Now, this is not such a big game, so I don’t think we see Bama’s best effort here. This plays to Arkansas’ advantage. Arkansas had a down game last week, and I think it is mostly due to the “lookahead” of this game. The other reason was because Tyler Wilson got knocked out of the game. The back-up had to come in cold (back-ups get very few snaps in preparation of game time whenever they come in for injured players)and by that time, the hole was dug.

      Does anyone really think that Arkansas is that bad? I think I’d have to be a pretty poor handicapper to believe that notion. Arkansas is a talented team that is still adjusting to a new head coach (that isn’t very good and never has been). They also got caught in a trap situation (a classical lookahead game). This game is different though. For one, teams that play really bad one week, will usually rebound to play well the next. Secondly, Arkansas is focused on THIS game, not some game down the road. They will be giving Alabama their full attention. Thirdly, Alabama is the #1 team in the nation and there would be no better way for Arkansas to redeem themselves than to bump off the #1 team in the nation. Alabama will get Arkansas’ best effort in this game. Finally, Whoever starts at QB in this game will not come into this game cold. Wilson already has experience and his back-up now has a week’s worth of snaps and preparation.

      -21 points is too many points to favor a team in an SEC conference game, I don’t care who it is. This was a knee-jerk reaction to last week’s upset and now everyone expects Arkansas to have a repeat performance — a team that until last week was talked about contending for the SEC West title and a darkhorse National Title contender. I’ll take the points.

      • Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

        BS, you bring up some great points. Personally I am not touching this game because 1) I agree w/ you that 21 points is too many to give on the road in the SEC, but 2) w/o their offensive leader, it just looks like too big of a hurdle for Arkansas to overcome (winning that is). It was going to be tough enough to overcome even with Wilson.

        Another reason that I won’t touch this game is because I also agree that the large line movement from 7 to 21 is an overreaction. So anyone taking Alabama at -20, -21 is paying a steep premium IMO.

        I went under and my hope is that Arkansas does in fact rally around their new QB and they also play good defense. Even w/ Wilson the last few years they’ve only been able to muster 14 & 20 points, so I don’t see them scoring many w/ their backup QB.

  8. alkimyst says:

    I hate laying points and always look for ways to bet the dog, but I don’t know how anyone could wager money on Arkansas, with a backup QB against Alabama and their defense. I think they can name their number in this game. that being said, I think there are many better opportunities on the board this weekend than betting on a game with this many odd variables.

    • Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

      That is pretty much my sentiment too. If you side w/ Bama you are buying them at an inflated number and if you side w/ Arkansas, you really have no idea what to expect at the QB position. Plus the coaching mismatch between Saban and JLS is ridiculous.

  9. alkimyst says:

    The Wisky, Aub and Nebraska plays all make sense to me. I will be playing Auburn and Wissconsin for sure. I don’t know what to think of Nebraska, though I certainly agree with your sentiment about Oregon calling off the dogs so early, and Nebraska having some similar attributes on offense, with much better and stronger athletes at every position. i may take a longer look at Nebraska tomorrow. Good Luck to everyone this weekend!!

  10. Sendacash says:

    The Bama/Arky game is a very interesting situation as you can see the arguments for either side. Last year, Favorites of 17 or more in SEC conference play where 10-3 ATS, however those games were always mismatches like Bama vs Miss or LSU vs Kentucky. In this case it is the loss of their QB and losing to Monroe that puts us at Bama -20. I’ve warmed to the Arky side on the over reaction, but obviouslhy worried about some of the other factors stated above. I’m gonna watch this line and see how it plays out, if we get overwhelming Bama support over 70%+ and this line sticks on the 20 then I will play Arky.

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  1. Pezgordo's College Football Picks - Week # 3 - [...] did a short write-up on a few potential blowouts for this week, which included [...]

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