Pezgordo’s College Football Picks – YTD: 13-11 ATS
A much better week for me and an incredible week for TSE handicapping team. I went 7-3 on my posted picks, but got hammered for the second week in a row on my newsletter selection (Oklahoma State – Arizona UNDER 70). Once again I was able to beat the closing line on nearly every game. I ended up beating the closing line on every selection except Oregon -33.5, which closed at -33.
UCLA, Tennessee and Oregon State all added another win to my season win totals selections. Unfortunately Auburn lost again, Utah was upset by Utah State, as was Iowa by Iowa State (at home no less).
I beat the closing line in 12 of 13 games in Week # 1 (92.31%) and my overall closing line value was +3. This past week (week # 2) I beat the closing line in 8 of 12 games, but 3 of the remaining 4 games I wagered right at the closing line (I beat the closing line in the Indiana – UMASS total, which ended up being a push) . So I beat the closing line in 8 of 9 games (88.89%) and my overall closing line value for week # 2 was +1.5.
I got most of these sides Sunday night but I wasn’t able to place them on the site until today (Tuesday, September 11, 2012) , so I will post them using current lines.
Rutgers +9 – WINNER
Stanford +9 – WINNER
Ohio State +16.5
I wasn’t feeling that strongly about this one so I did a lot of reading this morning on the Golden Bears. I read an especially good article at California Golden Blogs that talked about all of Cal’s injuries being the main culprit as to why they have been struggling thus far. It did not instill much confidence.
In addition I read several articles about Maynard and Tedford’s little confrontation on the sidelines last weekend and I also watched a video that broke down each of Maynard’s plays from last week. It just doesn’t look to me like he has taken the step forward that I thought he might take this season. I still think Cal is more than capable of giving Ohio State all they can handle this weekend, but I am going to play a hunch and not tempt fate …. or Zach Maynard on the road in the Horseshoe.
Maryland +3 – PUSH
Utah +4 – WINNER
Auburn -16.5 – LOSER
I did a short write-up on a few potential blowouts for this week, which included Auburn.
Houston +17.5 – LOSEER
Nebraska -24 – WINNER
Pitt +10 – WINNER
A few quick thoughts regarding Pitt. First of all everyone saw them play last Thursday and they looked terrible, especially QB Tino Sunseri. However Pitt did have 415 yards of offense and all the mistakes they made in the red zone (4 trips, only 10 points) are correctable. Sunseri also got a vote of confidence this week from HC Chryst. Keep in mind this is Sunseri’s 4th OC in as many years.
I believe the fact that Pitt looked so bad on Thursday and also lost to an FCS school in week # 1 has soured bettors on the Panthers to the point that their spreads will begin to become inflated.
As far as Va Tech goes, no question that their defense is top notch, but one of the “filters” I like to look at are teams who are favored by DD that struggle to score. This VT offense is a work in progress, and covering a DD spread on the road with 4 new OL, new receivers and a new RB is not going to be easy.
Wisconsin -14 – LOSER
I am not as good as GoSooners when it comes to finding good situational spots, but this one sure looks like a good one for Wisky. First off, an OOC loss to Oregon State really isn’t that big of a deal for Wisconsin. It has no bearing on the Big 10 race, and should have definitely served as a wake up call for the Badgers. Got to believe that after that ass-kicking and the subsequent firing of their OL coach, Bielema will be lighting a fire under all the coaches and players this week.
Utah State just beat their biggest in-state rival for the first time in 15 years. Gotta believe they are higher than a kite right now and have loved reading all their press clippings this week. Now they have to make the long road trip to Madison and face a pissed off Badgers team in need of a W.
BC – Northwestern O 53 – LOSER
NIU – Army U 49.5 – LOSER
Alabama – Arkansas U 54 – WINNER
CSU – SJSU U 49 – LOSER
Texas – Ole Miss U 48 – LOSER
After two games the Mississippi offense looks improved under new HC Freeze. However those improved numbers were put up against Central Arkansas and Utep. We’ll find out how improved this offense really is this Saturday when they face a legit top 10 defense in Texas. Last year in SEC play Ole Miss avg 11.63 ppg and against the 5 best D’s they faced last year they avg 192 ypg & 8.6 ppg. Texas is capable of those types of defensive numbers.
On the defensive side Ole Miss was really bad last year, allowing 438 ypg in SEC play to teams that only avg 359 ypg (+79 ypg) and also allowing 36.50 ppg to teams that avg 27.62 ppg (+8.88). Once again, after only two games against inferior opponents, the Ole Miss D looks to be somewhat improved (they held UTEP to 311 & 10 points while OU held UTEP to 255 yards & 7 points). However, the Texas offense is still a work in progress. Last year the Longhorns only avg 28 ppg to teams that allowed 31 ppg. I expect improvement from Texas this year offensively, but how much can we expect on the road in an SEC venue in week # 3? I’ll go with something like Texas 27-17.