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Pezgordo’s College Football Picks – Week # 3

Pezgordo’s College Football Picks – Week # 3

Pezgordo’s College Football Picks – YTD: 13-11 ATS 

A much better week for me and an incredible week for TSE handicapping team. I went 7-3 on my posted picks, but got hammered for the second week in a row on my newsletter selection (Oklahoma State – Arizona UNDER 70). Once again I was able to beat the closing line on nearly every game. I ended up beating the closing line on every selection except Oregon -33.5, which closed at -33.

UCLA, Tennessee and Oregon State all added another win to my season win totals selections. Unfortunately Auburn lost again, Utah was upset by Utah State, as was Iowa by Iowa State (at home  no less).

Beating the closing line

I beat the closing line in 12 of 13 games in Week # 1 (92.31%) and my overall closing line value was +3. This past week (week # 2) I beat the closing line in 8 of 12 games, but 3 of the remaining 4 games I wagered right at the closing line (I beat the closing line in the Indiana – UMASS total, which ended up being a push) . So I beat the closing line in 8 of 9 games (88.89%) and my overall closing line value for week # 2 was +1.5.

College Football Picks Week # 3

I got most of these sides Sunday night but I wasn’t able to place them on the site until today (Tuesday, September 11, 2012) , so I will post them using current lines.

Rutgers +9   –  WINNER
Stanford +9 – WINNER

California +17.5
Ohio State +16.5

I wasn’t feeling that strongly about this one so I did a lot of reading this morning on the Golden Bears. I read an especially good article at California Golden Blogs that talked about all of Cal’s injuries being the main culprit as to why they have been struggling thus far. It did not instill much confidence.

In addition I read several articles about Maynard and Tedford’s little confrontation on the sidelines last weekend and I also watched a video that broke down each of Maynard’s plays from last week. It just doesn’t look to me like he has taken the step forward that I thought he might take this season. I still think Cal is more than capable of giving Ohio State all they can handle this weekend, but I am going to play a hunch and not tempt fate …. or Zach Maynard on the road in the Horseshoe.

Maryland +3 - PUSH
Utah +4 – WINNER

Auburn -16.5 – LOSER

I did a short write-up on a few potential blowouts for this week, which included Auburn.

Houston +17.5 – LOSEER
Nebraska -24 – WINNER

Pitt +10 – WINNER

A few quick thoughts regarding Pitt. First of all everyone saw them play last Thursday and they looked terrible, especially QB Tino Sunseri. However Pitt did have 415 yards of offense and all the mistakes they made in the red zone (4 trips, only 10 points) are correctable. Sunseri also got a vote of confidence this week from HC Chryst. Keep in mind this is Sunseri’s 4th OC in as many years.

I believe the fact that Pitt looked so bad on Thursday and also lost to an FCS school in week # 1 has soured bettors on the Panthers to the point that their spreads will begin to become inflated.

As far as Va Tech goes, no question that their defense is top notch, but one of the “filters” I like to look at are teams who are favored by DD that struggle to score. This VT offense is a work in progress, and covering a DD spread on the road with 4 new OL, new receivers and a new RB is not going to be easy.

Wisconsin -14 – LOSER

I am not as good as GoSooners when it comes to finding good situational spots, but this one sure looks like a good one for Wisky. First off, an OOC loss to Oregon State really isn’t that big of a deal for Wisconsin. It has no bearing on the Big 10 race, and should have definitely served as a wake up call for the Badgers. Got to believe that after that ass-kicking and the subsequent firing of their OL coach, Bielema will be lighting a fire under all the coaches and players this week.

Utah State just beat their biggest in-state rival for the first time in 15 years. Gotta believe they are higher than a kite right now and have loved reading all their press clippings this week. Now they have to make the long road trip to Madison and face a pissed off Badgers team in need of a W.

BC – Northwestern O 53 – LOSER
NIU – Army U 49.5 – LOSER

Alabama – Arkansas U 54 – WINNER

CSU – SJSU U 49 – LOSER

TexasOle Miss U 48 – LOSER

College Football picksAfter two games the Mississippi offense looks improved under new HC Freeze. However those improved numbers were put up against Central Arkansas and Utep. We’ll find out how improved this offense really is this Saturday when they face a legit top 10 defense in Texas. Last year in SEC play Ole Miss avg 11.63 ppg and against the 5 best D’s they faced last year they avg 192 ypg & 8.6 ppg. Texas is capable of those types of defensive numbers.

On the defensive side Ole Miss was really bad last year, allowing 438 ypg in SEC play to teams that only avg 359 ypg (+79 ypg) and also allowing 36.50 ppg to teams that avg 27.62 ppg (+8.88). Once again, after only two games against inferior opponents, the Ole Miss D looks to be somewhat improved (they held UTEP to 311 & 10 points while OU held UTEP to 255 yards & 7 points). However, the Texas offense is still a work in progress. Last year the Longhorns only avg 28 ppg to teams that allowed 31 ppg. I expect improvement from Texas this year offensively, but how much can we expect on the road in an SEC venue in week # 3? I’ll go with something like Texas 27-17.

 

 

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20 Responses to “Pezgordo’s College Football Picks – Week # 3”

  1. SoonerBS says:

    I’m with you on Stanford and not against on any of your others. I haven’t seen any TOTALS yet, so I’ll be looking at those soon.

    Good luck this week, Pez, and great week last week! :)

  2. John Weaver says:

    Seems like a lot of DOGS!

  3. Doug says:

    I LIKE doggies! BOL to you as Always. Hope they go just like last week. Last week maybe hard to do again, as that was HUGE what all 4 of you did last week. Again it was most fitting for GoSooners to have a Sweeper. He either wins em ALL or loses em ALL……….lol

  4. GoSooners GoSooners says:

    I can tell you guys from years of experience with Pez that he is a dog player. And I’m more of a high wire act (as in betting Michigan St. last week). But I can tell you that betting all dogs in a given week isn’t any different than betting a high number of favorites. I actually went on as an anonymous poster one season in a forum and played nothing but dogs. And ended up hitting 60%. You can definitely be very successful with the dogs (especially the running dogs), you just have to pick your spots.

    • SoonerBS says:

      The more I look at the lines and examine the games this week, the more it is looking like Vegas is setting the favorites up to have a good week. Long favorites and short favorites alike are looking more and more like the plays. I am on a few of the dogs myself and that was the first way I looked at the lines this week with all the dogs hitting good the last couple of weeks. But, I was disappointed to see a lot of lines not leaning my way. So, I started viewing them from the favorites angle and it clicked.

      It may not turn out this way, but it is definitely looking this way to me.

  5. Seth says:

    Stanford is +8 now. I hate how late Bovada posts lines.

  6. GoSooners GoSooners says:

    Stanford was +7.5 at one time today.

  7. Xmas32 says:

    Hey Pez,

    Nice work by yourself and the rest of TSE gang last week. Really nice call on UCLA btw. I was disappointed NU lost SU, but the over hitting lessened the sting. They’ll have another dog fight on their hands this week with Arky State and Aplin at QB. I don’t love the total where it is, but I can’t really see Arkansas State stopping Nebraska and on the flip side Arkansas St. should be able to get theirs as well. I really want to pull the trigger on WF +28, but part of me things I can hold out for more points. There aren’t too many coaches who get more out of less than Jim Grobe and WF seems to frustrate the bejesus out of FSU year in and year out. Would like your opinion on the Mizzou/ASU total as well.

    As for your plays (don’t want to be all take lol). Really like both your NIU/Army and NW/BC totals. NIU has seemed to shore up their defense from last years shitshow and you always know what you get with Army. Both NW/BC have pretty good QBs who should be able to move their teams pretty easily.

    BOL!!

    • Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

      Thanks Xmas32, as you may or may not know, GoSooners and I are into finding what we call the “Running Dog” (an underdog that can out rush their opponent) and UCLA definitely fit the bill last weekend.

      Truthfully I don’t think Nebraska will have much problem at all w/ Arkansas State this week. I watched the Oregon game and the Red Wolves D is really bad. Nebraska’s offense isn’t Oregon, but it is pretty darn good and I just don’t see Arky State holding them below 50 points. Oregon literally started subbing at the 7:03 mark of the 2nd quarter up 50-3. Had they so desired, they could have easily scored 100 points. Nebraska may not be so benevolent.

      Aplin is pretty good, but all but 3 points against Oregon were in garbage time. The Nebraska D may not be up to their usual standards, but they shouldn’t have too much problems w/ Arkansas State. So over 68 points for the total in a game that maybe only 1 team will be doing most of the scoring is too high for my tastes.

      I saw that 28 points and Wake and must admit I was tempted. I know the Nole D is top rate and the Deacs may be hard pressed to score more than 10-14 points. I’m going to wait and see what our resident ACC expert jimmyshivers says about this one, but definitely leaning Wake Forest.

      I am proceeding with caution as far as ASU is concerned. They tend to be a major question mark when they take to the road. Sometimes they show up, especially for non-conference games (Wisky & UGA come to mind) and at other times they simply get destroyed (especially later in the season). But I will admit, I have not seen them look this composed in a long time.

      The offense looked fantastic against Illinois and they really should have scored 59 points (2 fumbles inside the Illini 10 yard line). The D was opportunistic, but the Illinois QBs were terrible. Franklin will be a major step up.

      From what I have seen, the over definitely looks like a good play. However, a few words of caution, Missouri’s OL is in a shambles, which certainly could effect their offensive efficiency and I just have to believe the Mizzou D will present ASU with a lot more resistance than Illinois did.

  8. SabertStxVii SabertStxVii says:

    Pez,

    Thoughts on Ole Miss Texas Under? You know me, not a big sides bettor, but just trying to see your thoughts on how the game plays out.

    Also with OSU Cal, I may like Over more than anything on the board there. Especially with line trending down.

    • SabertStxVii SabertStxVii says:

      Also, thoughts on Pitt? I don’t think i will touch them until I see them play well for this coach (not sure if its teams issue or coaches right now).

    • Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

      Sabert, I will put down a few thoughts on the Texas – Ole Miss total above.

      I don’t disagree with the over in the Cal-OSU game. My thoughts/concerns for that game are that as we discussed a little earlier this week, IF Cal plays the way I know they are capable of playing, they are more than capable of giving the Buckeyes all they can handle. If they do that the game might stay under ….. Cal scores 17-21 points and Buckeyes score 24-31.

      If on the other hand Miller is capable of running through them like he has Miami (OH) and UCF, maybe it gets away from Cal and they allow 35+. I just don’t think Buckeye offense is as good as people think based on beating up on two non-BCS schools. Cal will (try and ) stop Miller running the ball and force him to pass, will he be as effective passing the ball in this type of situation (RB Hyde is not playing)?

    • Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

      I will write up a few thoughts on Pitt too.

      • SabertStxVii SabertStxVii says:

        Think you made a good call on OSU. Urban Meyer, with UAB next week at home vs. Cal, traveling to east coast after a tough game, with USC next week and a weak defense.

        It could happen, but it’s a crapshoot in my opinion.

      • Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

        Sabert, agreed. Cal may be getting passed up in the PAC 12 by UCLA, ASU and AZ this year. They look to be trending down, which I was not expecting. Maybe when they get some of their injured players back they’ll start playing better, but they could be 1-5 or 2-4 before that happens.

  9. Doug says:

    BOL with ALL your action as Always. I do LOVE your site.

Trackbacks/Pingbacks

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  2. TSE College Football Picks – Week # 3 Summary - [...] Pezgordo [...]

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