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SabertStxVii Week 2 Recap

SabertStxVii Week 2 Recap

I’m obviously pumped about the weekend. Went 6-0 on Saturday to bring the Week 2 record to 6-2 +10 units, and the season record too 11-5, +11 units.  Just want to point out if I was flat betting, I’d only be up ~6 units. Here are my thoughts from the weekend and recap of each team I got a good glance at.

Week 2 Recap

There were quite a few things to take away from Week 2 (plays can be found here).  Pretty much everyone on TSE crushed it. Weeks like this won’t always happen. That’s the first important thing to notice. As easy as it is to go undefeated, it’s equally as easy to lose them all.  With that said, it can be applied to football as well.

Regression:

Regression to the mean is not an easy thing to track in college football for several reason. Typically teams play a vanilla schedule early on in the season, and then picks it up and plays some real competition as the season goes on. This makes it hard to assume a regression because you don’t necessarily know what the “mean” is.  This is where capping comes into play.

Pre-season, I had no reason ever too believe Ole Miss would have the 10th ranked offense in the nation after week 2 and that Bo Wallace from Ole Miss  would have averaged 70 yards rushing a game, and about 200 yards passing. They did this against Central Ark and UTEP; two teams not necessarily known for their defense.

So what is the mean for them? Will they regress or keep up this general pattern? Well, we definitely know that they won’t be as bad on offense as last year, and we also can highly doubt they do the same thing against great defenses such as Bama, Texas, Georgia, LSU, etc.; all whom they play later in the season. What will their mean be?

Don’t overhype teams because of silly stats they put up against weak teams. Something I try to do is figure out what a certain team’s mean is against each opponent. This helps me develop what the mean is, depending on schedule.

Don’t Force

Starting out last week, and definitely this week, the board looked terrible to me. I am a situational capper. I know some teams better than others and its impossible for me to watch every game. I also tend to lay low in the first few weeks because I cannot rely on what teams do against vanilla schedules. As the week progressed last week, more plays developed and more things became clear. There will be weeks I see 10 things I like and weeks I see barely any. I will give you leans if you ask, but there are reasons I call them leans and don’t play them…and the record shows that.

A perfect example of why not to jump the gun? GoSooners went 0% last week. This week he went 100%. IF you stick to your guns, you should hopefully revert to your own mean.

Week 2 Team Takeaways

Cincinnati: They looked solid, but Pitt looked worse. Munchie could become an RG3 mold.  He can run and this offense executes the quick, short passes. Pitt had chances to score on this defense though. First game  of season, don’t put too much into this game. Good conference win though.

Pitt: Executed so terribly. Second game in a row this has happened. Starting to think Pitt is just terrible. If they executed better in 1st half, could have stayed closer to Cinci. Still think they may get it together with experienced QB. Ray Graham is also awesome.

OSU: If they play a team that can stop Braxton, they are in trouble. He does it all. Way to beat OSU is attacking their secondary.  Too bad the Big 10 is filled with prolific passing offenses…oh wait.

UCF: This team plays A LOT of close games. They have a good set of RBs, and a good defense. Should be finish near the top of the C-USA.

Auburn: Frazier needs to learn to play to his strengths. Auburn also needs to play to McCaleb more. Total gamechanger. Very important to remember that Frazier folds against a good pass rush. He wasn’t as terrible against Clemson.

Miss St: More impressed with their defense than their offense. Really got in the backfield and disrupted Auburn’s play.

PSU: Finally looked like they got in a groove on offense. We always knew their defense was decent. Also know that they won’t kick it anymore, and if they do, it will improve. Real question now may be, “have they given up after 2 tough losses?”

Bama: If AJ McCarron steps up as a passer, this team is seriously dangerous. Their O-Line is unreal, RB unreal and defense is starting to figure it out. Bama still allowed 14 first downs to WKU. It’s important to realize they caused a ton of turnovers. This is a stat that could revert to the mean.  Their play was more lackluster than the score actually showed.

Michigan: As I said at the beginning of the season, this D is overrated. They beat up terrible teams last year, and played close to decent teams. This team has potential, but I expect them to play most Big10 teams close.

USC: Played about how I expected. Good enough on offense. Struggled to defend the spread. Made enough big plays to put this one away.

ND: Such a public team. Still not comfortable with their QB situation. Defense is decent, but stopping Purdue and Navy’s offense is nothing special.

Florida: Gillislee is freakish. If this guy goes down, this offense is in trouble. Once Florida’s D figured out the Big 12 spread, they looked good. Defense is still getting their bearings. Big test next week for them, but got through the first big game. Guess I can’t call him Muschump yet.

Texas A & M: Really impressed by the frosh QB. Sumlin’s play-calling helped. A & M also looked great on defense and can get in the backfield. Look to them when they play a inexperienced / bad QB without a great RB to open up play action. Still choke though late. Sumlin could make them dangerous.

Ole Miss: Biased, but EXTREMELY impressed by this team. Love Freeze’s offensive play calling. Bo looked great, Jeff Scott looked awesome. Defense looked pretty stout. BIG test next week. Hopefully they don’t try and field any punt, because they fumbled a lot of them.

Georgia: Gurley is a stud. Aaron Murray still looked less impressing than I expected. Defense turned this game around for them. JUST WAIT till they get back Rambo,  Olgetree and others.

Missouri: Lots of mistakes. Could fix those and have a decent season. Georgia defense really showed up.

Vandy: This team can still not figure it out on offense, which is mind blowing. I thought that would be a solid area with all that they returned. Playing at NW is not easy though.

NW: 2 QB system has worked for 2 games. Think this may become an issue down the road with who to go with. This team has been coached to 2 wins so far.

LA Tech: This offense is good. I think the value on this team may be diminishing though. They should continue to roll through their schedule, especially against bad defenses.

Houston: Not as bad as they looked in Week 1. Defense is terrible still. Offense finally got it together.


For analysis, commentary, and randomness throughout the week, follow @mtsabert on twitter.

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3 Responses to “SabertStxVii Week 2 Recap”

  1. Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

    Definitely agree w/ your comment about Frazier looking pretty good against Clemson, but really bad against Miss State.

    On paper Cal has the athletes on defense to slow Miller down and they have a stud WR (Keenan Allen) that can attack the Buckeye secondary. But on the field the Bears have yet to impress and QB Maynard may not be an accurate enough QB to test that secondary.

    Than again, if Cal shows up they’ll give Ohio State all they can handle. Line opened at 17.5. The UCF line closed at 16. Is UCF a better football team than Cal?

  2. SabertStxVii SabertStxVii says:

    Pez,

    I think Frazier will figure it out. We have to remember there has been lots of turnover with coaching at Auburn, and the coach who recruited him is no longer there. I think Auburn will get better by game, as long as players stay motivated etc. (could be tough to judge). I am wary of playing them soon until I can see how they rebound from this somewhat embarassing loss. They have loads of talent in the skill player positions though.

    I am also skeptical about Cal. The reason I liked UCF was because of their defense and ability to run the ball. I think with Storm picking up 4/5 a clip against this talented front 7 of OSU, the passing game really opened up and that’s where teams can attack OSU. I don’t see Cal having as disciplined of a defense as UCF. Two teams with rather skeptical offenses IMO (Nevada and So Miss) each put up 31 on Cal. They also lost their top 2 DE, top 2 LB, and top 2 secondary players from last year. This accounts for 48% of their tackles from last year. That’s a ton, especially against Braxton who is extremely tough to tackle. Cal is athletic for sure, but not as dynamic and disciplined as UCF. I think if Cal and UCF played each other, depending on location, I have it as a little over FG game in Cal’s favor. I just think they match up much worse to OSU than UCF does. They let 2 shoddy offenses put up 31, how much does OSU put up? Gotta think at least 40. Cal also has turnover troubles, which I really don’t love against a good defense. If this game moved over 20, I’d look at Cal, probably on a back door which is not something I like banking on against Urban.

  3. Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

    I like Auburn this weekend (again). Good spot for them. They’ve got to be hungry for a win. Stepping way down in class in their home opener against a team coning off their biggest victory in school history …. in OT.

    Tough to see Warhawks going back out on the road to another SEC venue and playing like they did last week. Auburn should be able to control the lines and run the ball effectively this week. Frazier should be more effective too because he won’t be placed in bad positions (or at least he shouldn’t be).

    We disagree on Cal, to a certain extend. On paper the Bears are more then capable of giving the Buckeyes a game. Jury is still out on the D. Yeah they haven’t played well thus far, but I’m sure their was no focus for Southern Utah and they haven’t had any success defending the pistol (twice vs Nevada and once against UCLA).

    We will definitely find out if they they only have “potential” on paper or if they are a bad defense.

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