I’m obviously pumped about the weekend. Went 6-0 on Saturday to bring the Week 2 record to 6-2 +10 units, and the season record too 11-5, +11 units. Just want to point out if I was flat betting, I’d only be up ~6 units. Here are my thoughts from the weekend and recap of each team I got a good glance at.
There were quite a few things to take away from Week 2 (plays can be found here). Pretty much everyone on TSE crushed it. Weeks like this won’t always happen. That’s the first important thing to notice. As easy as it is to go undefeated, it’s equally as easy to lose them all. With that said, it can be applied to football as well.
Regression to the mean is not an easy thing to track in college football for several reason. Typically teams play a vanilla schedule early on in the season, and then picks it up and plays some real competition as the season goes on. This makes it hard to assume a regression because you don’t necessarily know what the “mean” is. This is where capping comes into play.
Pre-season, I had no reason ever too believe Ole Miss would have the 10th ranked offense in the nation after week 2 and that Bo Wallace from Ole Miss would have averaged 70 yards rushing a game, and about 200 yards passing. They did this against Central Ark and UTEP; two teams not necessarily known for their defense.
So what is the mean for them? Will they regress or keep up this general pattern? Well, we definitely know that they won’t be as bad on offense as last year, and we also can highly doubt they do the same thing against great defenses such as Bama, Texas, Georgia, LSU, etc.; all whom they play later in the season. What will their mean be?
Don’t overhype teams because of silly stats they put up against weak teams. Something I try to do is figure out what a certain team’s mean is against each opponent. This helps me develop what the mean is, depending on schedule.
Starting out last week, and definitely this week, the board looked terrible to me. I am a situational capper. I know some teams better than others and its impossible for me to watch every game. I also tend to lay low in the first few weeks because I cannot rely on what teams do against vanilla schedules. As the week progressed last week, more plays developed and more things became clear. There will be weeks I see 10 things I like and weeks I see barely any. I will give you leans if you ask, but there are reasons I call them leans and don’t play them…and the record shows that.
A perfect example of why not to jump the gun? GoSooners went 0% last week. This week he went 100%. IF you stick to your guns, you should hopefully revert to your own mean.
Cincinnati: They looked solid, but Pitt looked worse. Munchie could become an RG3 mold. He can run and this offense executes the quick, short passes. Pitt had chances to score on this defense though. First game of season, don’t put too much into this game. Good conference win though.
Pitt: Executed so terribly. Second game in a row this has happened. Starting to think Pitt is just terrible. If they executed better in 1st half, could have stayed closer to Cinci. Still think they may get it together with experienced QB. Ray Graham is also awesome.
OSU: If they play a team that can stop Braxton, they are in trouble. He does it all. Way to beat OSU is attacking their secondary. Too bad the Big 10 is filled with prolific passing offenses…oh wait.
UCF: This team plays A LOT of close games. They have a good set of RBs, and a good defense. Should be finish near the top of the C-USA.
Auburn: Frazier needs to learn to play to his strengths. Auburn also needs to play to McCaleb more. Total gamechanger. Very important to remember that Frazier folds against a good pass rush. He wasn’t as terrible against Clemson.
Miss St: More impressed with their defense than their offense. Really got in the backfield and disrupted Auburn’s play.
PSU: Finally looked like they got in a groove on offense. We always knew their defense was decent. Also know that they won’t kick it anymore, and if they do, it will improve. Real question now may be, “have they given up after 2 tough losses?”
Bama: If AJ McCarron steps up as a passer, this team is seriously dangerous. Their O-Line is unreal, RB unreal and defense is starting to figure it out. Bama still allowed 14 first downs to WKU. It’s important to realize they caused a ton of turnovers. This is a stat that could revert to the mean. Their play was more lackluster than the score actually showed.
Michigan: As I said at the beginning of the season, this D is overrated. They beat up terrible teams last year, and played close to decent teams. This team has potential, but I expect them to play most Big10 teams close.
USC: Played about how I expected. Good enough on offense. Struggled to defend the spread. Made enough big plays to put this one away.
ND: Such a public team. Still not comfortable with their QB situation. Defense is decent, but stopping Purdue and Navy’s offense is nothing special.
Florida: Gillislee is freakish. If this guy goes down, this offense is in trouble. Once Florida’s D figured out the Big 12 spread, they looked good. Defense is still getting their bearings. Big test next week for them, but got through the first big game. Guess I can’t call him Muschump yet.
Texas A & M: Really impressed by the frosh QB. Sumlin’s play-calling helped. A & M also looked great on defense and can get in the backfield. Look to them when they play a inexperienced / bad QB without a great RB to open up play action. Still choke though late. Sumlin could make them dangerous.
Ole Miss: Biased, but EXTREMELY impressed by this team. Love Freeze’s offensive play calling. Bo looked great, Jeff Scott looked awesome. Defense looked pretty stout. BIG test next week. Hopefully they don’t try and field any punt, because they fumbled a lot of them.
Georgia: Gurley is a stud. Aaron Murray still looked less impressing than I expected. Defense turned this game around for them. JUST WAIT till they get back Rambo, Olgetree and others.
Missouri: Lots of mistakes. Could fix those and have a decent season. Georgia defense really showed up.
Vandy: This team can still not figure it out on offense, which is mind blowing. I thought that would be a solid area with all that they returned. Playing at NW is not easy though.
NW: 2 QB system has worked for 2 games. Think this may become an issue down the road with who to go with. This team has been coached to 2 wins so far.
LA Tech: This offense is good. I think the value on this team may be diminishing though. They should continue to roll through their schedule, especially against bad defenses.
Houston: Not as bad as they looked in Week 1. Defense is terrible still. Offense finally got it together.
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