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SabertStxVii Week 2 College Football Picks

SabertStxVii Week 2 College Football Picks

Really happy with how the season started as I was 5-3 +3.5* units. Had a rough start this week with Cincy throttling Pitt, but I have some stuff that I really like in Week 2. A few things too keep in mind for week 2. Do not overlook into what happened in Week 1. Teams come out flat, are figuring things out, etc. There will be a big change of play from Week 1 to Week 2, as lots of teams make adjustments. Also, it’s still early and hard to put situational plays on the board. I tend to continue to keep my unit value low, but this is actually a bigger week for me.  Read below for the picks.

3.5* Units, Ole Miss -8.5 vs. UTEP

1* Unit, UCF +18.5 vs. OSU

1.5* Units, Florida -1 (can find +1 on Bovada) vs. A&M

2.5* Units, Texas Tech -18 vs. Texas State

2* Units, Georgia -2 vs. Missouri

2* Units, La Tech -3 vs. Houston

3.5* Units, Ole Miss -8.5 vs. UTEP

These two offenses are pretty much opposites. UTEP threw for a whopping 48 yards last week against Oklahoma. They had 8 different guys carry the ball for 222 yards. What they are going to do this week will not be a surprise to Ole Miss. They should tackle better than they did last week, and better than Oklahoma did against UTEP. UTEP only got into the endzone once, and it was on a return. They attempted 3 field goals with 2 different kickers and missed them all.

I can’t believe I’m saying this, but the Ole Miss Offense is no longer inept. Granted they were playing a Central Arkansas, but they put up 565 yards on offense. Bo Wallace is the real deal. People won’t believe this now, but I think he finishes the season regarded as a Top 3 QB in the SEC. Ole Miss will have no issues on offense I don’t think against this UTEP team.  I think they will score quite a bit.

Hugh Freeze has really done a great job getting this team to believe. They are in a groove and the offense is super fast paced. I think you will see a new Ole Miss this weekend, they just need to execute and play fundamental defense. If there is an issue, it won’t be on offense.

Finally, UTEP is coming off an emotional loss to Oklahoma. They were somehow in the game late. I don’t see them hanging here as they are dejected from last week and don’t do anything surprising. Ole Miss will come out firing on all cylinders.

Final Score:

Ole Miss 38, UTEP 14

1* Unit,UCF +18.5 vs. OSU

Both these teams whooped up on MAC teams last week. UCF took down Akron and OSU took it to Miami. This UCF team is extremely solid, and although I don’t think they win, I think they give OSU a game.

UCF boast quite a few returners to their 5-7 team from last year. That team was quite an outlier when you look at the schedule. They lost a ton of the close games. Not to get too detailed, but with their F/+ ranking and their adjusted points per game to their opponents last season, they go 9-3. I know that doesn’t mean much, but it shows that they play up to their tougher opponents. Granted they didn’t play anyone of OSU’s stature last year, but only one game finished outside of the 18.5 pt spread.

I think UCF comes into this game and thinks they can legitimately win, which is good. OSU has some questions on the OL, and last week wasn’t really a test of that. UCF DL averages 290 lbs and is anchored by another weird name Jose Jose (first Munchie, now this BS) who is chillin at about 330 lbs.

If UCF can minimize big play mistakes that lead to easy OSU scores, I think they hang for long enough.

Final Score:

OSU 38, UCF 24

1.5* Units, Florida -1 (can find +1 on Bovada) vs. A&M

Let’s forget that last week happened. You have Florida vs. A&M, who do you take?

Florida returns 10 defenders, all studs. A&M is playing a freshman QB.

Florida played a spread offense last week and got the first game jitters out and got used to the speed of the game. They should be tighter.

A&M played themselves last week in a pads scrimmage and will come out rusty. Adding to that rustyness is a frosh QB, and a new HC and a new offense in a new conference. Fun huh?

Looking on last week, you can’t really expect Florida to release all their dogs against Bowling Green. Granted, they should have won bigger, but they were just feeling things out. If Muschamp blows this one, he can count the days til hes out.

I think the Gators defense chomps this frosh QB. I could see a Def touchdown in this one.

Final Score:

Florida 31, A&M 20

2.5* Units, Texas Tech -18 vs. Texas State

I slammed this line at 16 when it opened, as I had it slated to still open in the 20s. Teams get completely overhyped by what they did in Week 1, and that is exactly the case here for Texas St. I believe.

They beat a Houston team that lost a ton. They lost their Coach. Tony Levine and Mike Nesbit take over. They lost Case Keenum and 7,000 yards and 50 TDs to boot. They lost their two top RBs. They lost their top 3Receivers. They lost their center. blah blah. This isn’t about Houston, it’s about how Texas St. beat them.

Texas State returned pretty much every skilled player starter on O. They return a ton of defense. They were better than Houston going into that game IMO if you look at the raw data.

Texas State lost every OL basically. Texas Tech basically returns all of theirs. Tech returns 10 of 11 starting defenders. They will disrupt Texas State on offense.

I think TT knows that this team is capable of knocking off some solid teams, and will not take them lightly. I don’t see Texas State being able to stop Tech on offense. They return 9 starters and their QB. Their O line returns 69 total starts.

If this game was before the season started, I think you see TT a 24 pt favorite or more here. Fact of the matter is, the book is capitalizing on the hype I think. They offered a juicy line and it got slammed immediately to TT -18. I still see value here.

Final Score:

TT 45, TX St 17

2* Units, Georgia -2 vs. Missouri

Georgia knows this is the game that will pretty much decide the rest of their season, and ultimately, the SEC East. Richt has been coy about the suspended freak of natures on defense, Rambo and Ogletree. They are total gamechangers. I am willing to bet (no crap) on them playing. Richt isn’t dumb. Not only will they play, they will disrupt Missouri on O.

That will start with the OL vs the DL. The Tigers have 3 first year OLers, one a true freshman, and one a walk on. They are going up against one of the best defenses in the country. On top of that, they have to deal with Georgia who returns their top 3 starters on the DL.

On offense, Gurley had a breakout game (but it was against Buffalo). I expect him to atleast help open up the passing game for Murray. If they can protect Murray, eliminate turnovers and cause rucous on defense, this game will be theirs.

Final Score:

Georgia 27, Missouri 21

2* Units, La Tech -3 vs. Houston

I think it will be a REALLY long time before I put money on a team that lost a lot, with a new coach, coming off a lost to an FCS opponent. I like LA Tech. I liked them last year and they made me a lot of money.

I like their coach and they return their QB and quite a few skill players. I was about to take them against A&M, giving them a chance to win that game. To me, they are the more talented team and they haven’t played yet due to the fact the A&M game got postponed. We know how much Houston lost (see above). I know I harp on being used to game speed a lot and teams coming out flat. I think when you have as much returning on O as La Tech has, it isn’t as bad.

Last year Tech lost a heart breaker at  home. This year I think they take it over the young Houston team with a new coach. I think this game will be close for awhile, but Tech’s experience should kick in and get them the W.

Final Score:

La Tech 30, Houston 24

5 Responses to “SabertStxVii Week 2 College Football Picks”

  1. Trentmoney says:

    i’m on uga -2…goy line was -4.5…if they really are a serious threat to the sec crown then this is a game they win…i think they are, and i think they will

    took under 50 in florida game…don’t see them scoring too much, and it’s hard to envision a fr qb putting up big numbers against them as well

    good luck

    • SabertStxVii SabertStxVii says:

      How you feelin’ about that SEC East crown? Test 1 was successful. Wait til rest of D comes back from suspensions. Now we just need Murray to look like a QB. Few more big ones down the road.

  2. SabertStxVii SabertStxVii says:

    Trent — this is make or break for UGA. IF they crumble here I think they crumble in some other big games of the season. I bet those defensive guys even play, which is going to be super disruptive.

    Think the under is a good bet too. My issue is Florida doing stupid stuff on offense and giving A&M good field position. They need to play smart because they are more talented.

    Good luck man.

  3. bradley says:

    thats how u do it… great job


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