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Jimmyshivers ACC Football Picks — Week 2

Jimmyshivers ACC Football Picks — Week 2

YTD:  3-3 -0.79 units

Week 1 of ACC Football betting action saw me split my plays in what was ultimately a pretty fair verdict.  I was wrong on NC State and Florida International, while nailing the Clemson under, North Carolina and Georgia Tech.  Boston College was a tougher loss to me as a couple of key turnovers stretched what was a very close game into Miami’s favor.  All in all, no reason to complain.  Who is ready for Week 2?

Also, I pushed on Richmond +24 last week and see no reason to count events that don’t impact my units towards my record.  If anyone has a strong opinion I am willing to listen to reason :)

Week 2

WEEK 2 FINAL CARD:

**** Maryland Terrapins +10 -103
*** Miami – Kansas State Over 54 -105
*** Wake Forest Demon Deacons +6.5 -110 1h
*** North Carolina St Wolfpack -3.5 -108
*** Clemson / Ball State Over 66.5 -105
*** Stanford Cardinal -15.5 -108
** Pittsburgh Panthers +4 +104

Write-ups

**** Maryland Terrapins +10 -103

Far too many points to give the Terps this week in my opinion. I know Maryland looked bad last week (hell, they should have lost) against W & M, but catching DD against a Temple team this young and inexperienced presents a lot of value.

Temple really beat down Maryland last year in what at the time was a fairly surprising result (38-7) to me at the time.  Temple only threw 9 times all day and nearly ran the ball for 300 yards and they were able to dominate Maryland physically up front.  From that domination Temple has lost all 5 TD’s (NFL draftee RB Bernard Pierce) as well as 4 of the 5 big uglies up front that cleared the way.  Against a powerhouse or big conference program that might not be a big issue, but my gut feeling is that Temple is going to have a hard time replacing that production.

I like this UMd defensive group overall and I feel like Vellano and co. have an outstanding chance of dominating up front.  Maryland held a lot of players out last week due to slow-healing injuries, and while they will still miss a few guys (notably Kenny Tate) they will be a deeper team this week. Temple is really a run-first team (only 1 game under Adazzio so far with more than 20 passes) so the battle upfront is critical for the Terps.  RB Matt Brown is talented but I feel he is not an every down back and the depth behind him is a large question mark.  If Maryland neutralizes the run to the degree that I expect them too I just don’t know where the offense for the Owls comes from.  Montel Harris was an all-ACC running back for BC who could also be a factor, but he has a poor health record and is already nursing a hamstring injury.

Offensively Maryland is still a huge question mark and the reason this isn’t a full 5-unit play.  Temple is replacing 5 of their top 6 tacklers from last year though and a couple of all-MAC players on the defensive front.  Offensively I look for Maryland to work to establish the run and take as much pressure off of their rookie QB Hills as possible.  Villanova hit the Owls for nearly 5.0 ypc last week (they also outgained and out-FD’ed Temple though that is a bit misleading in a blowout) and Maryland should also be able to have some success up front against a defense replacing some serious talent on the edges.  When UMd does have to throw look for them to work the intermediate routes and test a linebacking corp that is pretty raw.

I’m still relatively high on Maryland this year compared to the expectations of Joe Blow, though it remains to be seen how well they replace QB Brown.  My preseason numbers made this line Temple -1.  The fact that we are getting DD points with what I think is the better defense, relatively equal talent levels and a decent revenge angle just add to the value for me.  Don’t laugh, but I think Maryland can win this game.  This is the kind of game where you hold your nose as you bet it.  I lean under as well.

*** Miami – Kansas State Over 54 -105

I just don’t have any faith in either defense here. Miami let Chase Rettig(!) throw all over them last week, and often looked lost and out of position. Really like the idea of the guru, Bill Snyder sitting in a dark film room pouring over all the missed assignments and figuring out how to take advantage. KSU has a vast majority of their offensive skill players back this year from an offense that averaged 31.6 ppg and is going against a defense that allowed 542 yards and 6.4 yards per play to Boston College (by far the worst offense in the league last year) I like BC’s offense to be better this season, but you have to give a lot of the credit for that performance to the Miami defense. KSU should run wild, control the clock and in general wreck havoc against this inexperienced Miami defense.

Betting an over is usually a team effort, we need help from both sides. KSU really struggled defensively last week against what should be a bad FCS team in Missouri St. The score (51-9) was very misleading as the game was tied 9-9 in the 3rd quarter and the yardage, FD’s and TOP were all close throughout. From what I’ve read about KSU they have major question marks on the defensive front and in the secondary. Miami did a great job of spreading the ball around last week in the passing game (10 different receivers for 28 completions) and I think we all noticed how explosive the run game looked. I look for Miami to bring a balanced attack here that keeps the Wildcats on their toes and keeps the ball moving.

I feel like KSU covers here, but they still have some serious (defensive) questions to answer. It’s more likely that we see both teams able to hit some big plays and put some points on the board. The Wildcats should grind Miami’s thin defensive front into submission and Miami will work hard to exploit the edges. I felt like this total would be around 56 so IMO their is definitely a bit of number value.

** Pittsburgh Panthers +4 +104

Taking a small play on our future ACC brethren Panthers tonight.. Feel like we have a bit of an overreaction to the YSU loss here, and Pitt should really benefit from the return of their 6 guys from suspension. Looking for Graham to be decent rushing the ball and Pitt should get decent push against an undersized UC frontline (no one starting over 274 lbs). It’s said teams make their biggest leap from game 1 to game 2 and this is the first game for the Bearcats as they break in a relatively inexperienced QB (and only 11 returning starters). Their should be plenty of rust on UC’s end. My preseason numbers made Cincy +1 Sold a point as 5 is a dead number and would rather get + money at the original number. Feel like this is a coin-flip game, so I’m willing to take a shot with more than a FG at plus money.

*** Wake Forest Demon Deacons +6.5 -110 1h

Would have liked to get a TD, but this is probably as good as it will get. Feeling here is that, as bad as Wake Forest looked in W1, they are a very solid program who is always a tough out at home. Under Grobe in the last 5 years Wake is just 1-4 in W1 ATS, but 4-1 ATS in W2. This is a team is well coached and is able to rapidly fix mistakes. Wake gets a couple of key guys back from injury (including 2011 superfrosh DB Bud Noel) and this game is a match-up of strength on strength (NC offense vs Wake defense). This is the first road game for HC Fedora with UNC and the first road game for each of their new systems on each side of the ball. NC has no reason to be complacent but after how they rolled up Elon it is easy to take a team like Wake for granted, considering Wakes reputation and their opening week struggles. IMO everything sets up for NC to start slow here so I see value in taking the points at home (especially with an offense that has the potential to put some points up). The reason for not playing WF for the full game is that I worry about NC’s play volume wearing down a defense that has questionable depth and putting up some late game-covering scores. NC probably wins but I think Wake makes them work for it.

*** North Carolina St Wolfpack -3.5 -108

I had a much longer write-up that got eaten by the internet.  Biggest issue for State in the opener imo was in the trenches; they got dominated on both ends at it adversely affected everything they did. Think the way they were whipped serves as a motivator here vs a UCONN team that is a much better match-up. Like their chances to generate pressure against a front that allowed sacks on 11.4% of dropbacks in ’11 which will lead to less exposure for the raw LBs and better pass coverage. Wolfpack should also block better against banged up UConn line which will allow establishment of the running game as well as take the heat off Glennon. Just see value in laying this fairly short number with the more talented team in a spot that should have them highly motivated. Pack 28-Huskies 17

*** Clemson / Ball State Over 66.5 -105

Clemson answered my major question last week with a young OLine doing a fantastic job against Auburn, and after cashing an under ticket in the Tiger bowl I’m looking to go the other way here. Was looking to back Clemson orignially as I don’t suspect this to be a letdown spot, but everything I look at keeps pointing me towards the over. When the Tiger offense is humming it is a machine, they keep the tempo high throughout and use a heavy play volume to wear opponents down and assert what is usually an athletic and physical superiority (at least in ACC play). Early in the season after a game where they moved the ball but sputtered a bit in the red zone (4 FG’s last week) I look for Dabo and Chad to really try to make sure that the gears are humming here and keep their foot to the gas pedal. Going against a BSU defense that I would politely describe as porous should result in plenty of points. I would have just played the team total over the number (47 now) but I think BSU can put up some points as well. Auburn moved the ball decently last week at times (4 FG’s as well) and BSU should be able to test the new defensive system (over 600 yards against perennially woeful EMU) enough to move the ball and score some points. Clemson defense looked improved in W1 but their gonna have to show me they can do it every week. 52-24 Tigers..

*** Stanford Cardinal -15.5 -108

Duke burned me with a great performance last week, so I was a little hesitant to go against the Devils again (hence such a late play). I felt Duke was pretty fortunate last week against an FIU team that they had a really tough time getting off the field (91 total plays). Devils were really beneficiaries of some big plays and I see them having a much harder time pulling them off against the better Stanford athletes (only one drive of more than 9 plays vs FIU). Devils are still just as banged up defensively (8 DEF contributors out for this game) but facing a massive step up in opponent class. I just see Stanford bringing the power ground game here and just really attacking the Devils up front and testing their already questionable depth. Stanford looked poor in their opener last weekend but I feel like Duke is really up against it here travelling across the country and playing a game at 10:30 EST. It’s apples to oranges without Harbaugh and Luck but I can’t help think of Wake travelling to Stanford for a late game 2 years and just getting killed.

More games to come guys, I will post them when I add them.  Best of Luck in Week 2! — JS

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9 Responses to “Jimmyshivers ACC Football Picks — Week 2”

  1. Doug says:

    How many plays on the norm do you make per week?
    BOL with your 4* play.

  2. jimmyshivers says:

    Doug,

    80-90% of plays will be ACC with units usually from 2-4*. Looking @ approx. 5-7 plays a week (including sides, totals and team totals but not the occasional 2nd half play). I often split dog plays between taking the points and ML and occasionally sell points. Appreciate the reply, BOL to you as well

  3. Doug says:

    Thanks for your response and BOL to you as Always.

  4. Cody Andrews says:

    Hey jimmy, cody from atlanta. What’s your take on the yellow jackets after watching them against a hokies team that is clearly lacking talent on offense from previous years?

    GT seems to be alot faster off the line on D an appear to be stronger and faster than they’ve ever been under al groh.

    However, could this be due to the fact that VTs O Line is very young?

    S

    • jimmyshivers jimmyshivers says:

      Hey cody, thanks for reading. Overall I like what GT has here, their recruiting hasn’t been outstanding when measured by stars, but PJ finally has a team of guys who can (and want to!) run his system, so the overall competency is probably at its highest level since he took over. I would like Tevin Washington to either be more dynamic running the ball or a better passer; he is average at both but what makes this offense really explosive imo is when your QB is a home run threat (arm or feet) who makes defenses hesitate. The option destroys indecisive defenses, but without a guy to force the opponents hand they won’t be as prolific against decent defenses. I’m really interested to see what Vad Lee (from my neck of the woods) and Synjn Days look like with the keys to the engine.

      I think the D is certainly improved, year 3 of the Al Groh 3-4 defense should allow for everyone to be acclimated at this point. A big point for the 3-4 is that you have less guys on the line so they need to be more athletic which, like you, I noticed on Monday. I had felt like the discipline was poor defensively for GT over the past couple of years, and their going to have to prove that they are better in that area. The coaching staff seems really excited about the secondary, they are raw but a pretty athletic group.

      Overall GT is a dangerous team that (like always) is a nightmare to prepare for. Unless Washington or the defense takes a sizeable leap forward though, they will struggle to win more than last years 8 games.

  5. Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

    Looks like we beat the line move on that Miami – K-State total. I love it when that happens —- though it never seems to help me. HA!

    • Sendacash says:

      Pez, I concur, hear all these experts talk about beating line moves but it usually just cost me juice or to make a play I did not really want to be on. I like to wait it out and bet on game day, but that is just me.

    • Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

      Sendacash, waiting until game day to make your wagers has it’s advantages too. You might miss a few games because the line moved against you throughout the week, but there is also a lot of line movement just before a game starts, so you will probably get your fair share of good numbers.

      This year I am keeping detailed records of my numbers (what I wagered the game at vs the closing line). It just seems to me that I beat the closing number more often than not and it doesn’t seem to matter, though I know in the long run it statistically will make a difference.

      It didn’t help me last week, but throughout the year there will be games that are winners for anyone who got the better number, while others will lose based on the closing line.

      • Sendacash says:

        I like to play a lot of underdogs so don’t get burned by the line movements as much, but yeah you are right there will be some bets over the course of the year that would have won with the opening numbers. Playing at a somewhat squareish book can help with the dogs as well and I’ve found that if you like the dog and wait until about 45-30 mins before the game you can often times get a better number right around that window if the book gets flooded with heavy action on the favorite. The ironic thing is that if there is a heavy public favorite and the line moves the other way I like the play even more, especially if it crosses a key number even though you lose that line value.

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