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Pezgordo’s College Football Picks – Week # 2

Pezgordo’s College Football Picks – Week # 2

Pezgordo’s College Football Picks – YTD: 6-7 ATS 

Not the greatest start to the 2012 college football betting season, but I have definitely had worse. I actually ended up going 7-7, but since I did not include the Oregon total in the newsletter or anywhere else on the site, I will not count it. I did manage to beat the closing line on 12 of 13 games, for all the good it did me this week. 

On the brighter side of things, 4 of the 6 teams I wagered to go over their season win totals won this past weekend (Iowa, Tennessee, Utah & UCLA). Auburn was my only loser. The Oregon State game was postponed.

Let’s get right to this week’s games. I will have some quick thoughts on each of these games later in the week. I was completely taken off guard with totals coming out yesterday. Typically they are released Tuesday afternoon, however because it is week two, I am assuming they (the bookmakers) were able to get the numbers out quicker. Hopefully the totals release schedule returns to normal next week.

Miami +7
Auburn +3.5
Maryland +10.5

Oregon -33.5
Oregon 1st half  -21 (-115)

Adding Ducks first half just in case Chip puts up another 50 points in 23 minutes and then starts sitting starters like last week.

UCLA +7  

Oregon State +8

Here is the write-up I did this morning for College Football Zealots on why I like the Beavers in this game. I really think we are getting an underrated Oregon State team playing at home against a good, but possibly overrated Wisconsin team. We’ll find out Saturday, but that is the way I am seeing it right now.

Indiana – UMASS U 51

Florida +2

Better than last week, but still a long ways to go: http://secpresspass.com/home-page/week-2-pick-take-florida-plus-the-points/

Miami – Kansas State O 53.5

UCF – Ohio State U 50.5

 

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23 Responses to “Pezgordo’s College Football Picks – Week # 2”

  1. SabertStxVii SabertStxVii says:

    Pez. Really like some of your plays, especially Auburn. Really, really not impressed with Maryland though. I know a bunch of the guys on the WM team, and not that they aren’t good, but Maryland will really struggle against some good teams. WM gave the game away when they played better, and seemed to be the better team. Starting QB even got injured along the way.

    I also really like Texas Tech. I slammed them when they opened at -16. It’s now sitting at 17.5. I think Texas State is overrated for beating a Houston team that is a total mess right now. TT cruised to a good win and got things clicking. TT also was trailing TX St. for awhile last year, so they will not underestimate this team, especially after they knocked off Houston. May end up buying some back or trying to middle depending on where it goes.

    • Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

      Sabert, my main objective on most of these early wagers is to beat the line movement. So far so good w/ Mary (down to 10), Auburn (3), Miami (6.5) & Oregon (34.5). UCLA was a futures wager I made several weeks ago, but I really doubt that one goes to 7.

      As far as Maryland goes, I realize that they are not a very good football team and they struggled last week against an FCS school. However, Temple was gutted by graduation.

      Maryland most certainly will have the more experienced and probably better defense on the field Saturday. So DD w/ the better defense is always nice IMO. In addition, Maryland’s 4 year composite recruiting rank is nearly double that of Temple, so overall they are the more talented team.

      A few weeks ago everything we read about Temple was that they would not be favored in a single Big East game and now after 1 week they are DD favorites against an ACC school? I just don’t see it.

      Last year when these two played Maryland couldn’t stop the run, Temple losses their best rusher (NFL 3rd round draft pick Pierce) and 4 OL starters (3 of whom were multi-year starters). They now have a combined 16 career starts on the OL (15 by their 1 returning starter). Maryland’s DL should be improved.

  2. Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

    Sabert, I completely missed the line moves on TT and Bowling Green. Liked them both at lower numbers and for the sake of being conservative early in the year, I blew them off.

    As our SEC guru, what are your thoughts on the Gators getting 2 points this weekend. Weren’t they 2-3 point favorites a few weeks ago in this game (based on LVH GOY lines).

    So Gator offense struggled and so did their QBs, but didn’t everyone expect that? I just love these “overreactions” after 1 game. Heck, A & M hasn’t even played yet.

    • SabertStxVii SabertStxVii says:

      I like the gators to win straight up off first glance. They have probably the best defense in the SEC and just need to work through the kink. People are overreacting to the QB controversy and A&M may come out slow do to not having played at game speed.

      With that being said, Sumlin getting an extra week to prep his offense to score is dangerous. I haven’t looked too far into it, but I will let you know once I do.

  3. Doug says:

    Better luck to ALL you guys. Is it the norm that you have 13 plays per week?

    • Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

      Yes Doug, I would say on average I will wager 10-15 games per week, especially as the season progresses. If I believe I have a +EV wager I will make the bet. I used to wager even more games, but over the past several years I have improved my game selection filters.

    • SabertStxVii SabertStxVii says:

      Doug,

      Thanks for the luck, always appreciated. I was happy with how I did week 1 but always room for improvement. I typically play the week games, and then 5-7 on Saturdays.

      One thing I am really against is forcing plays. Id rather play no games than force them and lose or not win for the right reasons. Typically though, I play 7-10 a week.

      Would be interesting to get a Saturday Edge cappers record going though…

  4. Doug says:

    In my years and i do mean years around the sports industry, i have found out the hard way that once you get LOTS of plays going and strung out all over the schedule BAD things can happen.
    I myself stick to one conference well at least the last 20 years anyway.
    I notice that Everyone has a Special conference that they like and do well in. Once they branch out to the schedule they become quite vunerable to say the very least.
    I dont mind haveing several pieces in place, but i dont get over about 4-5 in at one time. If things are going well, one can press from frontstreet, or Bail if its not going well.
    Danger Danger Danger getting strung out all over the schedule.
    Bookmakers LOVE to write a player is who makeing many plays at once, as i am sure you know.
    Handicappers that i like are the onces that play about 4-6 games in a saturday as there are not many with a edge to it.
    Naturally all games on friday night and no add on’s..
    The first thing that many do, after the week is over is tell themselves i an NOT going to have that many games Ever again.

  5. Doug says:

    obtw…..I almost forgot to mention this. It would be nice to have a thread with ALL of you guys selections in it, just your selections.
    Saturday morning click into that and see where Everyone is.. Is there 4 of you guys? Trying to follow 4 with 10-15 selections would be most difficult for most.

    • SabertStxVii SabertStxVii says:

      Great, Great Idea. We will definitely work on that. Don’t see why we can’t do it. Only issue would be if we add plays throughout the day or at different times but I think we could figure it out.

      • Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

        Yes this is definitely a great idea. I will get something up late Friday afternoon/night that lists each of our picks.We can place it at the top of the site so it can be easily seen. Thanks for the suggestion Doug.

        Sabert, we may have to do a little trial and error if we want to add anything throughout the day on Saturday, but I am sure we can figure something out.

  6. SpartanDawg says:

    What’s your guys’ read on the Pitt game?

    • Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

      SpartanDawg, I have not yet looked at this game. Initial lean would be Cincinnati. Pitt coming into this game on a down note, on a short week, new coaching staff, new offensive and defensive systems. Don’t think I would even consider Pitt.

      I will look into it in more detail tomorrow to see if there is any play I like.

    • SabertStxVii SabertStxVii says:

      Been looking at this game for two days. Will have some sort of a play soon.

  7. alkimyst says:

    Guys,

    Really enjoy the site. Lots of goo discussion and insights. Thanks and keep up the good work!

  8. alkimyst says:

    How strongly do you guys feel about Org St? I bet them pretty heavy at 8.5 already. My local does teasers at even money, so I am thinking about putting them into some teasers, even though the line is down to +7, with Ole Miss and Air Force. Any thoughts?

    • Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

      I like the Beavers chances. This is a completely different team than the one that went into Madison last year and got destroyed 35-0. I also believe Wisconsin might be down a notch or so from last year, but they are obviously still a very good football team.

      I have a more detailed write-up on this match up coming out later this morning at College Football Zealots. I’ll post the link here for you right after it gets published.

      But bottom line is I believe the Beavers will be far more competitive in this match-up then last year and Big 10 schools don’t travel well out west. So we have the makings of a pretty good game.

  9. GoSooners GoSooners says:

    Pez…What do you think of this 49.5 total for the SDST/Army game? We’re talking about a running/ball control Army team with a better defense this year playing a SDST team who lost a 4 year starter at QB, and who struggled last week vs UW. Also did you notcie the KSU/Miami total is 5 points higher than when you got it. From what I saw on the weather today, we are suppose to get a bigtime front come in on the plains. They said by 4pm today we are supposed to have as high as 55 mph winds. And tomorrow 25-30 mph winds. My bet is if it’s windy in OKC it’s going to be windy in Manhattan. I’ll closely watch it. But if KSU pounds Miami on the ground all day, this game will go fast if they can’t pass the ball in the wind. 58 might be a little high.

    • Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

      GS, I just checked the weather report and it is saying sunny and clear tomorrow w/ 10 mph winds. I also checked your weather report and it did say showers & wind, so hopefully it is just isolated to your area.

      That SDSU/Army total could be a good play. Last year it was 23-20 and the Aztecs had better skill players. Rocky and the Aztec D are also really familiar with the option having played Air Force every year. Definitely one I will look into.

      I’m still leaning under w/ Ohio State and ASU.

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