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Maggiore’s Big 10 Football Picks – Week # 1

Maggiore’s Big 10 Football Picks – Week # 1

Week one is finally here and here are a few Big 10 football picks for you. There are a few big games and a few even bigger storylines as the Big Ten gets under way. Michigan opens with defending national champion Alabama in Dallas. Michigan State gets a program that has 50 wins over the last four seasons in Boise State. Penn State starts the recovery process and new coaches take over at Ohio State and Illinois. The conference has two very legitimate Heisman contenders in Michigan’s Denard Robinson and Wisconsin’s Montee Ball. While the Leaders division appears to be Wisconsin’s to lose, the Legends division will be a dog fight into late November. Let’s get the season started.

Big 10 Football Picks – Week 1

Play of the Week

Michigan St -7 over Boise State

This is not the same Boise State that the country has gotten used to over the last 4 years (50-3). Kellen Moore and Doug Martin are gone. For a team that doesn’t return a single starter in the front 7, an opening week trip to East Lansing is not what the doctor ordered. Michigan State is also replacing a highly successful quarterback in Kirk Cousins, but 8 starters return on one of the nation’s best defenses. The Spartans are looking to take the next step to BCS contender and coach Mark Dantonio knows that starts in week one. This line is short due to the respect that Boise and Chris Peterson have gained recently. Michigan State will be able to run the ball and their defense will keep the Broncos in check. The line is currently -7. I will go 2 units at that number. If it jumps below that key number, make MSU a 3 unit play for me.

Big 10 football picks - Week # 1

Other Plays

Alabama -14 over Michigan

Alabama is the defending champs but lost a lot of talent on defense and a top 5 draft pick at running back. Michigan returns what may be the most dynamic playmaker in the country in quarterback Denard Robinson. So why lay 2 touchdowns in week one at a neutral site game? Simple answer…. the matchup of Alabama’s offensive line against Michigan’s defensive line. How good is this Crimson Tide front? Good enough that last year’s Outland Trophy winner (Barrett Jones) moved from left tackle to center to make room for a sophomore. That sophomore (Cyrus Kouandjio) just happened to be the consensus top offensive line recruit in the country two years ago. The Wolverines lost 3 starters on their defensive line including its heart and soul in tackle Mike Martin. Look for the Tide to run the ball effectively. Michigan struggled to run the ball against good defenses last season and giving Nick Saban this long to prepare for Robinson and company, I feel the same will happen in Dallas Saturday night. At 14, this will be a 1 unit play. If 13.5 or lower shows up, this will become a 2 unit play.

Ohio State/Miami (OH) over 48

Big 10 football picks - Week # 1

Big 10 football picks – Miami (OH) QB Zac Dysart

The Urban Meyer era opens in Columbus and the offensive players at Ohio State couldn’t be happier. Gone are the days of single digit completions (happened 8 times in 2011). Quarterback Braxton Miller is cut out perfect for Meyer’s spread attack. The Buckeyes are not eligible for a bowl, so I look for the new regime to try and send a message each and every week. That said, it takes two to cover an over in college football. Ohio State’s defense is loaded, but Miami will bring some offensive weapons into the Shoe on Saturday. The Redhawks return 9 starters from an offense that averaged almost 300 per game in the air last season. The running game was historically bad (74 yards per game) but they aren’t going to run the ball on the Bucks anyway. Quarterback Zac Dysert and receiver Nick Harwell are very good players. I look for Miami to put up a minimum of 2 scores. 1 unit on this total.

Opinions

Ohio + 6 over Penn State

Northwestern -1.5 over Syracuse

Gun to my head (if I have to)

Minnesota -8.5 over UNLV

Illinois -10 over Western Michigan

Northern Illinois +10 over Iowa

Nebraska -20 over Southern Miss

- Maggiore

 

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8 Responses to “Maggiore’s Big 10 Football Picks – Week # 1”

  1. SoonerBS says:

    These look like good solid plays here, and not just because I am on a couple myself. Good luck with your season and thanks for posting your plays.

  2. Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

    I parlayed South Carolina w/ Michigan State … -110. I sure hope Sparty doesn’t make me sweat as much as the Gamecocks did.

    • Maggiore says:

      I am not going to put anything past Boise State, but if Peterson pulls this one off, you can put him up there with Saban as the elite of the elite. I would expect several “trick” plays from the Broncos tonight. I know they are part of Boise’s regular playbook, but they look like tricks to us fans in the Midwest. Unless the Broncos can absolutely shut down the MSU running game and force Andrew Maxwell to win it himself, Michigan State wins by 2 scores.

      • Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

        What can you do Jud, Sparty was by far the better team and dominated the game, but those turnovers kept Boise in the game.

        Maxwell wasn’t as good as Dantonio had been making him out to be.

  3. SabertStxVii SabertStxVii says:

    Maggiore,

    Like the MSU play, I just can’t bring myself to play it. If it was at 6.5 I would crush it though I believe. I think MSU def wins this game. AT home, better Def and better offense, but that is all on paper. I think 50-3 has garnered my respect. I fully expect MSU to take this one though.

    I just have no idea how Boise will come out of the gate and don’t like how they’ve laid it on some good BCS teams the past few years in the opening game.

    I’m also with you 100% on Bama, specially without Fitz now. I’m with you on adding too it if it drops to 13.5.

    • Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

      What stands out to me is that Boise has NEVER lost this much talent and experience in one season. They’ve never had 6 players drafted in one season before, they just lost a 4 year starting QB who owns the NCAA record for most wins.

      Most of those big OOC wins the past few years was with a really experienced team that they developed over several years. At the end of the day Boise is still only recruiting from a pool of players that were borderline PAC 12 prospects. The 4 and 5 star kids are heading to USC, Oregon and other PAC 12 schools.

      I’m with Maggiore, if Peterson pulls this one out w/ this inepxerienced team, on the road in East Lansing, then WOW!

  4. alkimyst says:

    I am going to war with Northwestern against Syracuse. It worries me that this line is moving against NW, but I think they are the better team.

  5. Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

    Excellent job Maggiore. Sparty was the right side, but too many turnovers kept Boise in the game.

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