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“Shorestein Says” NFL Picks – Week 13

“Shorestein Says” NFL Picks – Week 13

Carolina @ New Orleans -4:  The Panthers have to be the worst 8-3 team in the history of the NFL.  From a passer rating differential standpoint they are a -13…. only a handful of teams rank worse in that category.  Here is a chart that provides some perspective on that number:

NFL_13

The Saints on the other hand are one of the top teams in that vital statistic.  I think the Saints will bounce back from their tough loss last week to remain in the hunt for a bye in the NFC playoff picture.  

I still haven’t figured out what the Panthers do well aside from their defensive front 7.  They don’t run the ball efficiently (11th in yards per carry), Cam Newton has been wildly inconsistent (80.20 passer rating), and their secondary has given up big plays all season (20th in yards allowed per play).

 

Philadelphia @ Seattle +6: In the Sunday Night game, I think Philly will face a true test that it hasn’t seen in quite some time.  They have steam rolled inferior competition (Chicago, Dallas, Denver, & San Fran) the last few weeks and I think they will struggle with a talented Seattle front seven.  I don’t believe the Eagles’ offensive line has been tested since losing their best player and leader in Jason Peders. Michael Bennett & Company should provide this test in a hostile environment as they are generally more effective at home.

Although the Seahawks are banged up in the secondary without Sherman and Chancellor, they still have one of the best safeties in NFL history in Earl Thomas paired with some decent corners.  The Seahawks can always rush the passer and have speed at the second level.

The Eagles feel eerily similar to the 2015 Panthers who were 15-1 and unstoppable.  However, they were upset on the road late in the regular season by a talented, but underachieving Falcons team which is very comparable to Seattle.  When elite teams get accustomed to blowing teams out, they often struggle when they have to play in a closer game.  Look for the Seahawks to play a prideful defensive game as an extremely rare 6 point home underdog on the prime time stage.

 

Other Random Thoughts:

  • Vegas got torched last week. I believe all but 3 favorites covered…. Look for underdogs to bounce back this week!
  • I also really like Houston this week. Tennessee does not have many TD+ victories this season, and Mariota has been a turnover machine all season.  Clowney is also playing at an all-pro level right now.
  • Minnesota is also an interesting play this week. I’m avoiding just because I was scorched by Julio Jones last week… but he did benefit my wagon of a fantasy team. 
  • The “Opposite Tier” (games with a variance of 6+) is full of games this week…. That strategy has not worked out this season, but I am still monitoring the situation.  Cleveland just has to cover a game at some point, don’t they???
  • Shocking to see Eli Manning get benched…. I think he makes a lot of sense in Jacksonville next year. Reuniting with Tom Coughlin and joining forces with that defense could really alter the landscape in the AFC for 2018.

Good Luck this week, just 4 more of these left….!

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