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“Shorestein Says” NFL Picks – Week 10

“Shorestein Says” NFL Picks – Week 10

**For the Full Analysis and Formula picks, please sign up at ShoresteinSays.com.  Last week the formula was 9-3 ATS!**  

Here are this week’s selections based on the Mybookie.ag odds.

 

New England @ Denver +7.5: Well folks here it is… This game really tests my principles that I’ve laid forward.  I’m sure most of you will write this off as a crazy pick and look elsewhere, but I think this is a perfect time to buy Denver.  I was actually excited to see them get blown out in week 9, because I think they may have gotten an extra 2-3 points on the spread in this contest.  The defense was absolutely embarrassed against Philly giving up 51 points which was the most they’ve given up since 2010.  I promise you will see a motivated/prideful performance from this unit on a Sunday night stage against the hated rival in the Patriots, even if it is just for this one game.  

Like I did in week 2, I will outline the Denver defense’s performances the last few times they were home underdogs:

NFL_10

And this time, they are a TD+ dog which is unprecedented (except for maybe the Tebow era?).  If I’ve learned one thing from watching these matchups over the past few seasons, it is that this may be the only defense that isn’t scared of the Patriots.  They jam the receivers, they stuff the run, and Von Miller has absolutely owned every player on the Pats offensive line.  Chris Hogan will be out for the Patriots which should cause even more problems for the Patriot offense.  Denver is a house of horrors for Brady.  And while the Denver offense is terrible right now, just remember that they won a Super Bowl with a quarterback who had a noodle for an arm and couldn’t feel his hands.  The Broncos should be able to run against the Patriots dead last run defense at 5 yards per carry.  The loss of Donta Hightower has not been exposed yet, and I think this week that will be amplified.  Look for CJ Anderson to have a big day.  As terrible as Brock Osweiler has been the past few years, he has proven that he can win games at home when the defense plays well. 

Take the 7.5 points…. I will also be placing a small bet on the Denver Money Line.

 

New Orleans @ Buffalo +3: I like the Bills as a well rested home underdog in this matchup.  A few weeks ago I highlighted New Orleans’ struggles as a road favorite when they played Green Bay (now 4-9 ATS). I was ultimately wrong, but I think my assessment was mainly off due to Brett Hundley’s general ineptitude.  Tyrod Taylor is basically Joe Montana when compared to Hundley.  All kidding aside, I think the Bills have proven to be a viable force when playing in front of their home crowd:

NFL_10A

This season they have outscored their opponents at home by a combined total of 42 points, only the Eagles have posted better results.  I really like the Bills opportunities to re-establish the run against the weaker Saints’ front which is allowing 4.7 yards per carry which ranks 28th in the league, and it’s even worse on the road at 5.5 which puts them dead last as an away team.  I’m really looking forward to Kelvin Benjamin suiting up this week. The Saints have actually stepped up their pass defense, but the Bills are not a conventional drop back offense, which could potentially give them problems.  

I also love betting against dome teams on the road as the weather starts to turn.  At kickoff, it looks like the temperature could be in the 30’s and that should give the Bills a better chance of slowing down the Saints who have historically struggled outdoors.  Take the 3 points while they are available.  I don’t believe it will get any higher than that.

Great week last week for the spreadsheet 9-3 ATS!

 

Other Random Thoughts:

I also really like the value in the Houston/Rams matchup.  The Rams have beaten down two terrible teams 2 weeks in a row(Cards/Giants), and I think that has inflated the spread.  I know they have been playing well, but the line is much too high in my opinion.

I think it is a good sign for my formula that it is basically spot on the spread in 4 of this week’s matchups.  It should emphasize the value on the Money Zone games.

 I’m deciding to stay away from the Thursday game this week.  I need to make sure my undefeated streak remains intact, and I don’t really feel great about either side.

I can’t believe how bad Tampa is this year?

Julio Jones’ drop was mind blowing to me.  I don’t think I would rather have any other receiver in that scenario….

Trap of the week to me looks like Miami. Carolina has no business being 10 point favorites.  That line just makes zero sense to me….. but that usually just tells me that there is a reason why….

Good luck this week!

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