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REDUNDANT: characterized by similarity or repetition

REDUNDANT: characterized by similarity or repetition



I know this is starting to sound redundant, but we absolutely DEMOLISHED week # 6 of the College Football season,

College Football Premium picks went 11-6 this past week, including a 6-0 SWEEP of the Pac-12 schedule. Saber is about to be indicted on murder charges for KILLING HIS BOOKIE! He went 3-1 last week and is now 18-4 (81.82%) on the season. 

College Football Premium picks are now an AWESOME 57-34 (62.64%) on the season & Saber, GoSooners & Pezgordo are STILLPERFECT 10-0 on 4* & 5* Majors!  

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Last Week’s Premium Analysis & Write-up for NC State +3.5

306 NC State +3.5 vs Louisville

Ville comes into this matchup playing 2 cupcakes against Kent State and Murray State both at home before they travel to take on the Wolfpack in a night game on the road in primtime. NC State on the other hand has been slugging along through a win at FSU and then a win at home in a sleepy spot against Cuse.

I’ll spend only a bit of time on the NC State offense vs. Ville defense as I don’t think that is what decides this matchup. NC State offense is led by Ryan Finley who is a much different Finley than the one we saw in last years Ville/Pack game. He hasn’t thrown an interception since late last season and he is semi-mobile QB.

The biggest concern I have with the Ville defense is their front 7 (and frankly secondary if Alexander doesn’t play). Where Finley excels is in the 7-12 yard range and I just don’t see Ville having any advantage there. If Finley has time, he will be able to pick apart a defense. I think he will. He is facing a Ville defense that ranks 122 in DL Havoc Rate. They rank 123 in Standard Down Run Rate. NC State ranks 18th in Standard Down Sack rate so I think that NC State will have time here to find their receivers.

Jaylen Samuels is a nightmare matchup for this Ville defense (and any defense) and I think he’ll be able to exploit and confuse this Ville defense. The OL is a strength and the WR should be a mismatch, especially if Alexander doesn’t play.

Obviously, this game like most games involving Lamar Jackson come down to how a team plans to defend him. Clemson gave NC State the blueprint to do it, and I think that NC State will have some success. The DL, with all of the hype, is actually quite a letdown in most stats that you would look at but there are a few that standout here that I like. First, they rank 10th in Rushing Success Rate. On top of that, they are top 10 in Opportunity Rate and Stuff Rate. What that basically means is that the opposing teams offensive line is not having success against this DL. While they may not be generating the sacks, they are top 10 in the country in alot of really good stats against the run. I don’t think Ville will be able to establish the run and it is all going to fall on Lamar’s shoulders scrambling and throwing.

What NC State does have is Bradley Chubb. He leads the nation in TFL and 4th in sacks and this is probably the best havoc creating lineman that Ville will face. Chubb was a linebacker when he showed up on campus and he is now 280 lbs and still runs like a linebacker. He is quick enough to atleast slow Lamar.

Finally, the reason why I like State is because they DON’T have the ability to really blitz with the LB. Hear me out. Early in the year against SC, NC State continued to get 6-7 in the box to get after Bentley and they could not get to the QB. Since then, they have depended on their front 4 to bring the pressure, allowing the LB to read the play and react, and that is why we aren’t seeing insane sack numbers for NC State. I think that is the perfect defense to defend Lamar Jackson. They will look to contain him and try and force him to throw the ball, where I think NC State has the advantage.

Night game, at home with the better D and what I think will be the better run game. ND State wins this one in what could end up a shootout. I lean the over here as well.

Final Score

NC State 38, Ville 31


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