nav-left cat-right
cat-right

“Shorestein Says” NFL Picks – Week 5

“Shorestein Says” NFL Picks – Week 5

Week 5 Shorestein Says Picks of The Week

 

Patriots @ Tampa Bay +6:  Another Thursday Nighter with value in my opinion.  As you probably know by now the Patriots defense has wildly underachieved.  They are ranking close to the bottom in virtually every important category imaginable.  Obviously, the biggest one that sticks out is the 116.3 defensive passer rating.  Here’s the rest of the damage report here:

NFL_5

If I took the team name off of that chart, you would probably say “Why would I ever bet the Saints as a 6 point road favorite?”

Now while it can’t continue to stay this bad for the entire season, I don’t anticipate it will change enough on this short week. On top of that, the Buccaneer offense in my eyes is an awful matchup.  Mike Evans’ size and Desean Jackson’s speed present huge problems for this struggling secondary and their constant communication problems.  It doesn’t get easier in the ground game.  I believe that Doug Martin’s return will present even more headaches for the Patriots’ weak and underperforming front seven.  At 5.3 yards allowed per carry, the Patriots can’t seem to stop anything right now.  

Tom Brady has willed this team to the 2 wins that they have.  He has been exceptional in the 4 games, but I think the amount of hits that he’s getting exposed to will ultimately take its toll on his performance.  Without Edelman, the offense takes longer to develop.  These longer developing routes will eventually expose Brady to some turnovers which he has largely avoided.  I think this is the week it happens.  The line has not protected him well and I think the Bucs defense has some problematic players on their line, namely in Gerald McCoy.  Their athletic line backing unit is also one of the few teams that can handle New England’s pass catching RB’s.

Although it’s hard to bet against Brady, it’s even harder to bet on a road team laying close to a TD with a poor defense.  We are now a quarter of the way into the season, and at some point you have to take the defensive struggles into consideration.  Take TB over TB12 this week. I think +6, will be as high as this gets.

 

Seattle +2 vs LA Rams: I’m keeping faith in the Seahawks this week.  I continue to think that they are the best team in the weak NFC West, despite the Rams fast start.  What excited me about the Seahawks win against Indy was Russell Wilson’s willingness to run again.  As I highlighted in my season preview, Wilson is most effective as a dual threat passer/runner.  His efficiency showed Sunday night against Indy as he posted a 107.8 rating in conjunction with his 38 yards rushing and a TD.  If they are able to draw up some more zone reads, I think that will relieve some pressure on the line’s pass protection.

While everyone is very excited about Jared Goff, I see it as a great buying opportunity for one of the league’s best defensive units to re-establish itself.  They haven’t been dominant yet with a 78 defensive passer rating, but I think it’s more likely Goff will settle down and post a game more representative of what he was last year:

NFL_5a

The Colts, 49ers, Redskins, and Cowboys defenses aren’t exactly the ’85 Bears and that has allowed Goff to get comfortable.  I see the Rams as a young team that is prone to a letdown after being satisfied with an unexpected win on the road against Dallas.

I could see this game coming back to a pick ’em. I’d recommend moving early on Seattle if you decide to play it.

 

Green Bay @ Dallas -2:  Every once in a while, I’ll play against my spreadsheet.  I did it once so far this year in week 2 when I successfully selected the Patriots over the Saints.  This is one of those rare opportunities for the Cowboys.  Dallas should run all over this injury ridden Packers team.  Green Bay’s blowout from a week ago was much more of an indictment on how bad the Bears were.  Chicago just had absolutely nothing in the form of skill players to test the Packers defense with.  The Cowboys should have a field day with all their talented skill players.  This should be Elliot’s true breakout game as the Packers are 19th against the run, and their best player against the run, Mike Daniels, has been in and out of the lineup.

What’s really concerning on the Packers side is their offensive line.  Rodgers was in trouble all night against a Bears pass rush that honestly doesn’t have much.  Demarcus Lawrence is evolving into a game breaker as he showed against Arizona when he faced an overmatched tackle.  I expect a similar situation in Green Bay against either a young backup or a banged up starting tackle (not sure if Bulaga or Bakhtiari will be playing).  On top of all that, I don’t think the Packers will be able to run without Ty Montgomery.

Look for Dak to have a bounce back game coming off a loss and hoping to catch Philly in the NFC East.  I think by kickoff this will be Dallas -3. I would pull the trigger at -2.

 

San Fran & Indy -1.5:  Sometimes some of the worst looking games optically, offer the best betting value.  I think Brissett is developing into a leader for this Colts team.  Although the Colts were blown out in Seattle, I liked his demeanor and performance as he got them to a halftime lead in one of the most difficult placed to play in NFL history.  The Colts defense has quietly improved as they are now ranked 11th in passer rating defense.  They’ve actually showed some toughness in front of their home crowd in their win against Cleveland and OT loss to the Cardinals.  In those games, they combined for 5 sacks and 4 interceptions.  The opportunistic Colts defense should continue this trend against the 49ers offense and its proneness to turnovers.  Through week 4 Hoyer has thrown a pick in every game so far.  Aside from the Thursday Night shootout with the Rams, the Niners have put up games with 3, 9 and 15 points scored.

I like Indy’s value in the “Money Zone” this week. I only see the spread getting higher from higher. 

 

Spreadsheet Breakdown:

NFL_5b

Money Zone Plays: Indy, Minnesota, Arizona, Miami, Seattle, Tampa Bay, Buffalo, Jax

Opposite Tier Plays: Cleveland, Houston, Carolina

Random Thoughts:

  • Money Zone is packed this week. Now up to 16-11 on the season (59.25%)
  • I’m avoiding Jacksonville. I initially wanted to take Pitt, but I think the 8.5 is too much.
  • Buffalo is my Trap of the week. I correctly called out my last trap in week 3 when the Broncos went to Buffalo.  It just seems too good to be true to see a 3-1 team go in to a 1-3 team as a 3 point underdog.  I’d recommend staying away there.
  • Baltimore and Oakland is just a dumpster fire. The Ravens have been so bad, and who knows what to expect from EJ Manual.
  • God Bless your soul if you took the Redskins last week. I’ve been there…. I know it hurts…..

 

One Response to ““Shorestein Says” NFL Picks – Week 5”

  1. Nicky S says:

    Rodgers last minute drive ruined my perfect week!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

FREE picks & handicapping tips delivered to your inbox Click Here To receive our FREE newsletter