BetOnline released college football point spreads and totals today for week # 1 of the 2012 college football season. So lets get the discussion started.
Without going into much detailed handicapping yet, three totals stood out to me and I made wagers on the following games:
Georgia Tech – Virginia Tech UNDER 51
Auburn – Clemson UNDER 63
Boise State – Michigan State UNDER 53
I haven’t got to the Boise/MSU game. But with 2 new QB’s I would also be thinking under. Auburn is kind of a borderline team with me. I don’t like them or hate them. It’s more like meh. I like the amount of starters they have coming back. But I’m not crazy about having two new coordinators to break in. I still have my doubts that Auburn will have much more success on offense against the good SEC D’s than they had last year. They have the look to me of a team that is still a year away. But I do think they will have some serious revenge on their minds against Clemson, who broke their 14 game win streak last year. I think that will be a hell of a game between two evenly matched teams.
GS …. I already have a small play on GT +9, but need to look at the game in more detail before I add to it. However, I am in agreement that it appears tough to ask VT to cover more then a TD with essentially a new offense less QB Thomas. I really see both offenses struggling in this game.
What other sides look interesting to you? What do you think about SMU +14. I know Baylor will probably be fine on offense even with the loss of RGIII and Wright, though I would expect them to be less explosive, but this is still a pretty bad defense laying DD against an experienced SMU team.
SMU D should be improved and they have a stud RB. Isn’t ex-Texas QB Gilbert their QB? Heavy losses on the OL though.
Another total that I am leaning towards is the Colorado – Colorado State game, but it is currently sitting at 47 (opened at 49) and I doubt the number goes up to 48.
First things first. My annual college football trip to Boulder was finalized over the weekend. Unfortunately I won’t be going to see Arizona State kick Colorado’s ass this year, that game was on a Thursday and my friend/brother-in-law couldn’t get away. So instead we will going up there for the September 29th game against UCLA. Go Bruins!
SMU – Baylor UNDER 60
I wrote up a fairly detailed explanation about this total in GoSooners Big 12 discussion thread. Key numbers are 58/59, based on my database search results of the past three years, both numbers are identical in terms of being “strong” numbers, but obviously if we’re going under, 59 is preferred to 58.
One last note, the spreads have all moved downward on all three totals that I wagered a few weeks ago. Boise – MSU is currently sitting at 45.5 at Bookmaker, crossing the very strong number 48. The value in this game has been greatly diminished.
GT – VT is down to key number 48 and that is the absolute lowest number I would play it at. The Auburn – Clemson total has not been re-posted. I am assuming when it is, it will be below the 63 we got it at a few weeks ago, before they announced Sammy Watkins suspension (I always figured he’d miss a few games). 62 is the next key number, but I still like this total at 59 or better.
Colorado – Colorado State UNDER 48
I found this at Bookmaker at 47.5 and bought the extra half point to get to key number 48. Very difficult to see where the points are going to come from in this game. Both teams will be starting relatively inexperienced QBs (CU QB Jordan Webb had 16 career starts at KU, but he is learning a new offense here in Boulder). Neither team has any proven playmakers at the skill positions. The Buff OL has 3 starters returning, but they are young and lost their best player (RG Ryan Miller – NFL 5th round draft choice). Both defenses return 7 starters and should be improved.