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2012 College Football Win Totals – Boston College

2012 College Football Win Totals – Boston College

The 5Dimes 2012 college football win totals for Boston College is 5.5 wins, with the over returning a healthy +150 and the under costing a chalky -190. In going 4-8 last year BC broke a streak of 12 straight seasons with bowl appearances. Can the Eagles get back to bowl eligibility and cash a healthy return for over backers?

What I like about Boston College

Chase Rettig is a better quarterback than most people are giving him credit for. Last season the offense was a disaster as they came in near the bottom of the league in nearly every major meaningful category (BC hasn’t topped 28 pts against an FBS team in over 2 seasons).

Last year there were some mitigating circumstances with the offensive coaching staff, and early injuries to workhorse RB Montel Harris and promising WR Ifeanyi Momah made their offense one dimensional and easy for opposing defenses to prepare for.

2012 college football win totals - BC QB Chase Rettig

BC QB Chase Rettig

In fact, BC was 2nd in the entire BCS with 55 starts lost to injury in ‘11. BC returns 10 starters this season on the offensive end, and coupled with a substantial upgrade at Offensive Coordinator this offense has the ability to catch people off guard early. New OC Doug Martin has a good track record and is known somewhat as a QB guru who should be able to bring Rettig some confidence and get some guys open downfield.

Look for BC to become more reliant on the passing game and the development of downfield options to extend the field. I expect to see some value on team total overs in the first month of the season as BC should be much more explosive and will be using their offensive talent in ways that the inexperienced defenses they face early haven’t seen.

I also like the way that this team finished the season. Last year went to hell in a handbasket quickly but the team kept fighting and wound up finishing the season on a 3-2 “run” (4-1 ats over that span). A team showing that kind of fight always catches my attention because it tells me that they liked each other as well as their coaches.

What I don’t like about Boston College

My questions for this BC squad start right at the top with HC Frank Spaziani. His status as a coach on the hot seat is well-earned as he has backed up consistently questionable gameday coaching moves with staff instability (4 OC’s within a 13 month span from ‘11-’12), mediocre recruiting and declining attendance. He is very capable as a DC and has shown the kind of loyalty to the program that they have obviously been looking for, but in each of his 3 seasons the team has won fewer games than the year before.

Though they do return 17 starters (tied for tops in the ACC), Spaziani hasn’t really recruited all that well and I wonder how deep this squad really is. Luke Kuechly was an absolute tackling monster in the middle for the defense, and his early departure removes the safety valve for the front 7. The linebackers remain the strength here but if the front 4 struggle to get pressure (only 11 sacks last year) then this league full of experienced QB’s will have a lot of success finding space against this secondary.

Schedule Assessment

2012 college football win totals 09/01           MIAMI  -2.5   (54%)
09/08           MAINE  -17     (95%)
09/15           at Northwestern  +2.5   (46%)
09/29           CLEMSON  +10.5    (21%)
10/06           at Army  +4    (38%)
10/13           at Florida St  +24.5    (0%)
10/20           at Georgia Tech  +11.5   (19%)
10/27           MARYLAND  -2.5   (54%)
11/03           at Wake Forest  +8   (26%)
11/10           NOTRE DAME  +5.5   (35%)
11/17           VIRGINIA TECH  +10   (23%)
11/24           at NC State  +13.5   (17%)

Total Wins: 4.28

Though my final number shows an advantage of under a game against the Vegas total, the heavy juice precludes me from making a play. I actually feel that BC has a decent shot to start well provided they take advantage of a manageable September schedule that sees them face retooling Miami and Northwestern teams (UM and NW combined = 19 returning starters; BC = 17 returning starters) as well as an FCS team.

My concern is that players don’t play games in a vacuum and are often susceptible to the swirling winds that surround a coach under fire. If BC struggles against a tough middle stretch (Clemson, @ Army, @FSU, @GT) they could quit on a lame duck coach even when the schedule gets a bit easier.

I have 6 games where the Eagles are unlikely winners (7+ point dogs) yet only one game where they are likely winners, so for BC to eclipse this total they need to win all their relative coin flip games or steal some of the less likely ones.

Summary

I like Frank Spaziani, but I feel the collapse of this program is somewhat of a karmic realignment after the way they handled the Jeff Jagodzinski situation 4 years ago.

Though this team is likely a little better overall than last year’s group the drastic turnaround needed to save the Spaz appears unlikely. BC deserves a new direction for their football program and I think it’s likely they will get it for 2013.

Anyone else think BC struggles again this year and Spaziani  gets the axe? 

- JimmyShivers

 

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4 Responses to “2012 College Football Win Totals – Boston College”

  1. Davis says:

    Jimmy, Miami line down to 1. Will you be doing analysis of ACC week 1 games? I like BC in this game but I want to hear what you have to say about it.

    I would also like to know if you agree with Pezgordo about his Georgia Tech – Virginia Tech under selection. I have never played many totals, so I am not too confident when wagering on them.

    • jimmyshivers jimmyshivers says:

      Davis,

      I will be starting with a week 1 breakdown shortly, and that is one of the first games that jumped out at me. I’m pretty high on BC to have a pretty decent start and their offense is in a position to succeed here against a very inexperienced Miami defense. I like AL Golden at Miami but just expect him to go through some growing pains early on as the schedule is brutal and the team just isn’t very experienced. We’ll talk about this game in the near future.

      I agree with Pez about that total, the under appears to be the right side. This is Virginia Tech’s best defense in a couple of years and I think they have a really good chance at limiting the effectiveness of the GT option attack. PJ is always a wildcard coach and I’m sure he will implement some wrinkles here, but how confident are we that Tevin Washington (and a WR corps returning 0 career catches) can execute them?

      This Georgia Tech defense doesn’t get a lot of acclaim, but they return a decent amount of experience (including a very solid back 7) and should be fully acclimated to Al Groh’s 3-4 defense. Logan Thomas has been extremely hyped but I’m skeptical; last year he had a ton of experience around him with seasoned wideouts and a gamebreaking ground game. He is going to have to prove to me that he’s ready to be THE GUY on this team when entire defenses are able to focus on making him uncomfortable (especially one that has had all offseason to scheme).

      Add to that two teams who are historically run-heavy, and we can expect the clock to keep moving. Playing totals is about having a good idea of game plans as well as pace and both of them tend to point to the under here. At this point I’m not sure I will play it, but I certainly lean that way. I will have more to say about the Week 1 card in the coming days.

  2. SoonerBS says:

    I was looking over the BC and Miami game yesterday and was researching both programs. This game is now down to “PK” and I want to find an advantage with BC. However, the only advantage I can find with any confidence is the fact that the game is being played at BC. I did like what I heard about the work the defensive linemen had put in over the Summer. They had a “sensei” come in and work with them on their handwork and how to use better leverage to get by blocks. It was interesting stuff. I THINK that BC is the play right now, but one key injury could tip this game back to Miami easily.

  3. vince murphy says:

    bring in mark whipple-HE INTERVIEWED FOR THIS JOB BEFORE SPAZIANI AND LED UMASS TO CHAMPIONSHIPS.SO WHATS UP WITH HIRING A MORON WITH THE WORD SPAZ IN HIS NAME.whipple will clean this program up, recruit the best kids he can find and get them signed-3 years and bc will have its program back.why uconn didnt hire him or bc is beyond my comprehension-but now uconn is living threw the pasqaulini train wreck.maybe these 2 colleges should not hire any coach that has a vowel on the end of there name.obrein=winner!edsel-winner!PASQAULINNI-LOSER!SPAZIANI-LOSER!BC HAS UNDOUBTEDLY THE BEST QB RECRUIT SIGNED IN XAVIERS hs’s QB BOYLES-HAS A ROCKET ARM AND CAN THROW 70-80 YD BOMBS AND HIT RECIEVERS IN THE HANDS-IT SHOULDNT TAKE LONG WITH THAT KIND OF TALENT.whipple has ties in the southern florida- miami area and im sure he can get plenty of recievers around this kid to kill teams-boyles has a tom brady arm-no joke!hire mark whipple guys and get ur heads out of your butts-no more vowels for the next 10 years.

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