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2012 College Football Win Totals – Georgia

2012 College Football Win Totals – Georgia

Georgia finished the regular season last year with 10 wins and the oddsmakers believe the Bulldogs will repeat  that win total by setting UGA’s 2012 college football win totals at over 10 (+145) and under 10 (-185).

Helping us preview and project Georgia’s 2012 season win totals is our friend Kevin over at College Football Zealots. If are looking for some good college football team previews, go check out their site. They have nearly 100 previews available on the site right now with more to follow over the next several weeks.

Nasty Defensive Front Seven

Georgia’s strength this season is their defensive front seven. The Bulldogs have two NFL caliber nose tackles (Kwame Geathers and John Jenkins) and they have quality depth at defensive end.

At DE they have bulked up and moved Cornelius Washington and Ray Drew from OLB and they both flat out can get after the QB. They will add those two to Abry Jones and Garrison Smith. Smith was very impressive in a back-up role last year and is on the verge of being a break-out/impact player.

2012 college football win totals - UGA LB Jarvis Jones

UGA LB Jarvis Jones

At LB Georgia has a lot more depth this year and they also have the athletes to fit Todd Grantham’s system. Last year they didn’t have the depth at this position early in the season and you saw that against  Boise State. After Alec Ogletree went down in that game with an injury, Georgia had to replace him with a walk-on and true freshman who wasn’t quite ready to play. With Ogletree the Boise offense basically did nothing. Without him the floodgates opened.

This year the inside backers have depth with Christian Robinson, Michael Gilliard, Ogletree (who will be serving a suspension to start the year) and Amarlo Herrera (the aforementioned freshman who grew a tremendous amount throughout the year).

On the outside is a guy named Jarvis Jones who you might have heard of. Opposite him, Georgia has the ability to still use Washington or Drew, they also have a couple of true freshman that will get playing time in Jordan Jenkins and Josh Harvey-Clemons and then they have some other players like TJ Stripling, Reuben Faloughi, Ramik Wilson and Chase Vasser who will be competing for playing time at that position.

Depth and Talent at Receiver

Another area Georgia is stacked at is wide receiver. Because of their depth they have been able to cross train Malcolm Mitchell at corner. Georgia returns eight receivers that had receptions last year and five players that had two or more TDs. They also add speedster Justin Scott-Wesley who red-shirted last year and Rantavious Wooten (who also red-shirted last year due to injury) to the mix.

Concerns on the OL

Georgia’s big weakness on offense is the offensive line. Former offensive line coach Stacy Searles left Georgia high and dry when he tucked tail and ran off to Texas. Will Friend has been re-building the OL the last year or so and he’s also switched schemes.

This years OL will lose three starters but only two of them were actually good (and one of those was playing out of position). I expect Georgia to be better this year at the guard positions (due to experience) and at right tackle (because Justin Anderson won’t be playing that position this year).

The big question marks will be replacing Ben Jones at center and Cordy Glenn at left tackle (although it was Glenn’s only year at LT and it took him a while to get used to the position).

Thin secondary to begin the season

The Georgia secondary, when healthy and not suspended, is one of the best starting groups in the nation. A number of guys have transferred out because they simply knew they weren’t good enough to beat out the current group of starters and get on the field.

Unfortunately with the pending suspensions to Bacarri Rambo, Sanders Comings and Branden Smith, Georgia will be very thin for the first two games of the season.

Georgia will rely a lot on sophomores Corey Moore, Damian Swann and Malcolm Mitchell early in the year. They were big-time recruits but haven’t seen a ton of time or action on defense in SEC play. Their biggest test will come at Missouri and the front seven really needs to help them out by dominating the line of scrimmage.

Schedule Analysis

Georgia will most likely be favored in at least 11 of their 12 regular season games this year (@ South Carolina is the only game where I can see Georgia being a small underdog). However, it is the SEC so the Bulldogs play a ton of rivalry games (Tennessee, South Carolina, Florida, Auburn, Georgia Tech).

2012 college football win totals - UGA Mascot5Dimes currently has spreads on 6 Georgia games:

@ Missouri -4.5 (63%)
TENNESSEE -12  (82%)
@ South Carolina -2  (53%)
vs Florida (Jacksonville) -3.5  (60%)
@ Auburn -5 (64%)
GEORGIA TECH -11.5 (81%)

I would rank Florida and South Carolina as the two teams that Georgia is most likely to lose to this season. Missouri, Tennessee, Auburn and Georgia Tech will be difficult games, but Georgia should beat all four teams.

Georgia’s 2012 College Football Win Totals

A couple of more things. Georgia loses Orson Charles so they lose a dynamic offensive weapon but honestly Mike Bobo never really used him to his full capabilities. Georgia will replace him with two more prototypical TEs and I think that will help out the run game and with pass protection.

2012 college football win totals - UGA RB Boo Malcome

UGA RB Boo Malcome

Despite the loss of Crowell, Georgia is deeper at RB than last year. Last year they started Richard Samuel (he had just switched over from LB in the off-season) and his primary back-up was diminutive Carlton Thomas and true freshman Isaiah Crowell.

This year they have Boo Malcolme set as the probable starter (he came on towards the end of last year and is a RS Soph) with Samuel backing up and two freshman waiting in the wings in Keith Marshall (early enrollee) and Todd Gurley.

As good as Crowell’s stats were, he really didn’t have an impact for Georgia at the end of the schedule so it will be interesting to see how Marshall and Gurley are used.

Georgia also has a buffer game this year in Buffalo. Last year they started with Boise but this year they have a chance to get a lot of young guys some game time before they play Missouri and I think that will be huge.

Also, after Missouri they have FAU so that’s yet another game to get young guys playing time. The schedule works out nicely for Georgia in that respect, as does having South Carolina later in the season when Georgia should be a full strength.

I don’t know that Georgia has closed the gap enough between themselves and LSU and Alabama to say that they are a NC caliber team, but it is tough to see the Bulldogs not winning at least 10 games in the regular season. How many games do you think the Georgia will win this year? Thanks – Pez.

 

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9 Responses to “2012 College Football Win Totals – Georgia”

  1. Kevin says:

    One area that we didn’t really tough on and is a big concern for Georgia is Special Teams. Georgia’s ST play was awful last year. This year it looks like two true freshmen will be starting at kicker or punter (those jobs are up for grabs when camp starts). In addition to that youth, Georgia was last in the SEC in opponent punt returns and gave up 2 TDs, plus they gave up the Melvin Ingram ST fake punt TD. Georgia was also dead last in kickoff returns as they also gave up 2 TDs in that aspect of ST. That’s about 2.5 points per game that ST’s gave up last year not to mention all the FGs that Blair Walsh missed.

    • Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

      Kevin, I have a spreadsheet that I use where I keep track of ppg allowed vs defensive ppg allowed and based on my numbers it is closer to 4.5 ppg. That’s HUGE!

      I have UGA allowing 22.15 ppg (I do not include FCS numbers), but they only allowed 17.38 defensive ppg. According to my numbers they allowed 9 non-defensive TDs last year.

      • Kevin says:

        So on one hand the defense is better than some people think but on the other hand Special Teams really stunk last year. That will be a focus this year but with some of the roster attrition Georgia has seen over the last couple of years with guys seeking playing time elsewhere and knuckleheads being knuckleheads I would bet there will be a lot of youth on the coverage teams.

        • Pezgordo Pezgordo says:

          Well the ST’s were a disaster anyway you look at it. Tough to say just how good the D was since there were so many ST mistakes/scores.

          In the 4 games they lost they allowed 7 (of the 9) non-defensive TDs (so either ST’s or pick six, fumble returns allowed by the offense).

          In those 4 games they only held Boise below their offensive season avg ppg. South Carolina, LSU and MSU all scored above their offensive season avg.

          Against the 5 best offenses they played last year (Boise, South Carolina, GT, LSU & MSU), they allowed 34.40 ppg to teams that avg 34.25. So more or less even.

          But against the remainder of the schedule (again, I didn’t include Coastal Carolina) they only allowed 14.50 ppg to teams that avg 20.76 ppg.

          Bottom line from last year, the D dominated the bad offenses but was pretty average against the good ones.

          • Kevin says:

            We paid damn good money for that Coastal Carolina game, how dare you not include it!

            Another thing that will be interesting to keep an eye on is the strength and conditioning program. You can’t really judge it until games are played but last off-season they made a switch in that program and results were better last year but there were still times at the end of games where the team appeared winded. Now that they have been in the program for over a full year it will be interesting to see how that impact the team.

            I also think it’s tough to just look at the five offenses you listed in a microscope. The Boise State and South Carolina games were at the beginning of the season and Georgia clearly improved after those two games and not just because of competition.

            I do believe Georgia has a lot better quality depth in the front seven this year and it’s also Todd Grantham’s third year as DC.

            There are a lot of reasons to be excited about this Georgia team and as we talked about some reasons to be apprehensive. It should be a fun year.

  2. Terry says:

    I don’t see any value in wagering Georgia over 10 wins, and see more value in the under. They could lose as many as 4 of the games listed in the article. The SEC opener at Missouri is going to be a battle. Georgia will be short handed in the secondary and Missouri is tough at home. Florida, South Carolina and Auburn will also be very difficult games. I can see them losing 2 of those 4 games. 10 wins just seems like their best case scenario and if you were to wager the under you are going to break even in the worst case.

  3. GoSooners GoSooners says:

    I think Georgia has many more things going for them than against them. The biggest thing in their favor is their schedule. Anytime you can avoid Bama, LSU and Arky from the West, it makes the job a lot easier. This is basically a better team than last season with a similar schedule. At least they don’t have to open with Boise St. this year. Other than maybe Arky, i think Georgia has the most outstanding skill players in the league. I admit that special teams is a concern. I’ve heard many people say that OU would have won the national championship in 2008 if it hadn’t been for poor speical teams. So yes, it can sometimes make the difference in a tight game.

    Georgia does have to go to Mizzou in their second game. But I have serious doubts that either Texas A&M or Mizzou can physically hold up against the elite teams of the SEC. And I consider Georgia one of them. Plus Mizzou QB Franklin and RB Henry Josey got hurt late last season, and are still rehabilitating their injuries. And the Tigers had a couple key defensive players sit out the spring with injuries. So it will be a wait and see with the Tigers if these players are ALL the way back.

    • Kevin says:

      Franklin should be ready to go week one but Josey might not play at all in 2012 and I really don’t think there is much of a chance of him showing up in week two against Georgia.

  4. ERockMoney says:

    Same story different year with Georgia. It all starts at the top with this team and HC Richt has consistently failed to have this team prepared, notorious slow starters and has quit on the staff in the past.

    I can’t recall a team, ever, who has made any form of serious splash when they lack solid coaching coupled with atrocious special teams. Throw in a weak offensive line and I see another failure in store for the Dawgs. If they can’t protect Murray against the ultra big, fast and athletic SEC defensive lines – he won’t last the season.

    That being said, I still think they may win ten games, but fail to make the SEC title game. With the hype and schedule, that would be considered another failure. Outside of the areas mentioned above, UGA is loaded, everywhere.

    I actually think Georgia may beat South Carolina, but they won’t beat Florida. If Florida has a pulse, they beat Georgia. I agree the Missouri game will be very difficult. The Tigers have a knack for giving “better” teams trouble, especially in Columbia. Georgia are notorious slow starters who are consistently unprepared for early season tests. In addition, you have team in Missouri with something to prove, superior coaching, superior special teams and home field advantage. I like a Tigers upset here, which would send the Georgia hype train spiraling, as usual.

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  1. Georgia - [...] Their defense last year only allowed about 20 points per game. They also return 9 starters. I was almost …
  2. College Football Analysis: Can this Georgia Team Win a National Championship? | SEC Football - [...] Their defense last year only allowed about 20 points per game. They also return 9 starters. I was almost …

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