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Friday’s NCAA Hoops Play – 1/27/17

Friday’s NCAA Hoops Play – 1/27/17

TOP RATED IVY GAME OF THE WEEK: 

Yale -9.5 

 

 

Today we have two teams that are on different levels in their conference…Yale is one of the Ivy’s Big 3 and Brown is not…Today, they do battle again…but the results should be the same with the Bulldogs taking a big bite out of the defenseless Bears.

Yale has currently won 8 of its last 10 games and is looking to sweep the season series between the two, for the 3rd straight year…In the first game, Yale had to make a comeback to win by 1 point, 75-74…But this one shouldn’t be that much of an arduous task as the Bulldogs are hosting this one in their house, where they are as tough to beat as the Seahawks are at Century Link Field.

Below are the Key Edges that will provide the Bulldogs with another important Ivy conference win.

KEY EDGE #1:……….Yale is at Home.

As I mentioned above, Yale is hosting this game at home where they are as tough to beat as the Seahawks are at Century Link Field…This is why I listed this as the first Key Edge because the Bulldogs at home have been as good as money, at least SU.

Anyways, I mention winning SU because it is still the first important step to winning this bet…So with that said, Yale is currently on a 20 game home winning streak when they play in their historic John J. Lee Amphitheater in Payne Whitney Gym…That solid 20 game home winning streak is ranked as the 5th longest active home winning streak in the nation, only behind Kansas (35), Oregon (38), Akron (27) and New Mexico State (22).

Currently, the Bulldogs are 6-0 at home this season and they are now facing a Brown team who they have beaten the last 6 times at home…and who also have now lost 5 of their last 7 road games this season.

Side Note: The Bulldogs have also won 5 straight and 12 of the last 14 games vs Brown.

Now, lets get to Key Edges that will propel the Bulldogs to not only a SU win but an ATS win as well.

KEY EDGE #2:………Yale is one of the Big 3 in the Ivy.

The Bears are not considered a top tier team in the Ivy League…That distinction, goes to the Ivy’s Big 3 in Princeton, Harvard and Yale…The Bears are not even considered a mid-level team…They actually was voted by the media and coaches to finish in the bottom 2 positions in the Ivy this season.

Today, they again face the Bulldogs who btw, is the defending Ivy League Champions and who has won the last 5 games against them…These two teams are simply on different levels, talent wise, and the past history between the two confirms this.

Side Note: Yale is currently ranked 105th while Brown is ranked 252nd overall in Ken Pomeroy’s College Basketball Rankings.

In fact, in their last game, you could tell who the superior team was as even when Brown at home was up by 12 points at halftime, despite their top player and 18th highest scorer in school history (1,153 pts) putting up a career-high 33 points, or that Yale turned the ball over an unusual 18 times and the fact that Brown is the Ivy’s highest scoring team…it still was not enough for the Bears to beat the superior Bulldogs…Now, that tells me a lot.

Another thing to note from their previous game, is that even though Yale sleep walked through the first half going down by 12 points, turned the ball over 18 times and missed 14 of their 19 three-point shots…they were still able to out shoot the Bears 50% to 36% from the field and also out-rebounded them, 47-to-31…Two very important Key Edges that they have over the Bears.

Other things that definitely give the Bulldogs additional edges is that offensively they are the top shooting team in the league in FG% (46.5%) and 3pt FG% (38.2%)…They also lead the league in rebounding margin (+4.9), offensive rebounds (11.1 per game) and in assists (16.8 per game)…In addition, the Bulldogs also commit the fewest fouls of any team in the nation…They are ranked 24th in 3pt FG% defense…They are ranked 21st in the nation, committing the fewest turnovers and also 26th in assist per game as well.

Side Note: The last time Brown beat Yale was on Jan. 25th, 2014, in Providence

Brown already got spanked by Princeton, one of the Big 3, on the road by 31 points…And below is two reasons why that happened.

 

 

KEY EDGE #3:……Yale’s strength on defense is Brown’s weakness.

What can Brown do for you?…I can tell you what they can’t do and that is play stout defense…The Bears offense is ok, but their big problem is on the defensive end where they are allowing an average of 76.9 ppg, which ranks 279th in the nation.

In the Bears 9 games on the road, where they have gone 2-7, they have given up an average of 80.6 ppg, 53.2% shooting from the field and 39.4% shooting from long range…In addition, they are also giving up 8 three-pointers in their road games as well.

Yale, on the other hand, can play defense…In fact, they play very good defense and is currently ranked 2nd in the conference in FG% defense, allowing just 40.9% shooting from the field…And, the Bulldogs defense has held 7 of their last 9 opponents to under 40% shooting overall.

In addition, the Bulldogs defense has only given up 67.8 ppg, which ranks 67th overall in the nation…And more recently, the Bulldogs defense have been even more stout, allowing an average of just 59.5 points over their last 4 games…Overall, that translates to 9 fewer points per game than Brown has allowed.

Side Note: In their first game against Brown, Yale held the Ivy League’s top scoring team to just 36.2% shooting from the field…while they shot 50% from the field.

And lastly, in their games at home, this Bulldog defense gets even more stout, allowing opponents just 62.7 ppg, 41.3% shooting from the field, just 30.9% from long range and just 61.5% from the line.

KEY EDGE #4:…..Yale’s strength on the boards is Brown’s weakness.

Again, what can Brown do for you?…Well, like not being able to play solid on the defensive end…they also are poor on the boards as well…In fact, Brown comes in as one of the worst rebounding teams in the nation…They are currently ranked last in the conference and 330th in the nation in total rebounds per game, averaging just 31.3 rpg…They are also ranked 338th in defensive rebounds per game, averaging just 21.7…And, they rank 253rd in the nation in offensive rebounds per game, with just 9.6.

Yale, on the other hand, is ranked 1st in the conference and 73rd in the nation in total rebounds per game, averaging 38.4…They are also ranked 50th in the nation in defensive rebounds per game, with 27.4…And, they rank 150th in offensive rebounds, averaging a solid 11.1 pg…Based on the Bears road rebounding average and the Bulldogs average rebounds at home…the Bulldogs will have +8 rebounding margin in this one, which spells big problems for Brown.

Side Note: Brown has been out-boarded in 7 of their last 9 games.

In their first game, the Bulldogs out-boarded the Bears by 16 rebounds, at 47-to-31…Today in their house, that rebounding edge could be even higher as Brown again is one of the worst rebounding teams in the Nation…And you can’t really correct poor rebounding in just 6 days.

OTHER EDGES:……..Favoring Yale today.

*Yale has 5 players that are averaging double-digit scoring…while Brown only has 2 players who are consistently averaging double-digit scoring.

*Brown leads the league in FT attempted and made…They also have the conferences best FT%, shooting a solid 76% from the line…However, today they are facing a Bulldog team, who is ranked 1st in the nation with committing the fewest fouls…So their dependence at getting to the line will be limited by the disciplined Bulldogs…In addition, in home games, the Bulldogs have only allowed opponents an average of 15 attempts, with just 9 made from the line.

*Brown’s other edge is that they are 1st in the conference in steals per game…The only problem is that the Bulldogs offense is currently ranked 21st in the nation at committing the fewest turnovers per game…And Brown is ranked last in the conference in committing the most turnovers per game…In their first game, the Bulldogs committed 18 turnovers and Brown committed just 9…I am fully expecting that stat to be in reversed in this game.

*Yale also will have the advantage in Blocks, with their 4.2 blocks per game…compared to Browns 2.1….They also will have the advantage in ball movement as they rank 1st in the conference in Assist, compared to Brown who ranks 7th in the conference in that category.

Side Note: Brown’s only conference win has come against Penn, who is 0-3 in the conference and has an overall record under .500.

*And lastly, Yale’s mascot, Handsome Dan, would beat the crap out of Brown’s mascot any day of the week and twice on Sunday….Believe That!

Bottom line is Brown was lucky to only lose by 1 point to Yale last week…Take away just a portion of those 18 turnovers the Bulldogs committed and that game would have ended in a double-digit win for Yale.

Still, I like the fact that Yale almost did lose that game, as I believe it provided the Bulldogs with a good wakeup call and thus will result in them being a lot more focused and ready for this rematch today.

Yale is almost unbeatable on their floor and they are simply the much more superior team between the two…But it is their solid play on the defensive end and in rebounding where I see them taking over and putting this game away…Today I see Yale exploding on offense and being stout on defense…And thus I am confident in them winning and covering this number with room to spare…..GO BULLDOGS!

Side Note: Yale is 38-15-2 ATS as a favorite.

Side Note: Yale is 10-4 ATS vs the Ivy League.

Side Note: Yale is 7-3 ATS following a loss.

Side Note: Yale is 40-17-2 ATS in their last 59 games played on Friday.

Side Note: Yale is 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games following an ATS loss.

 

 

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