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Wednesday’s NCAA Hoops Play – 1/25/17

Wednesday’s NCAA Hoops Play – 1/25/17


George Mason -2 (buy .5pt at -121 or better)



Today, we have a battle between the two Georges of the A-10 conference…George Washington comes in after stopping a 3 game slide, while the home team George Mason comes in off of a huge upset at 1st place Richmond.

Which George will win today?….Well, based on the past history, George Washington Colonials has owned this series winning the last 6 between the two…But, today is the present and I like the home team Patriots to change that trend because of several Key reasons I listed below.

KEY #1:……The Patriots are the Hotter & Healthier team

George Mason is coming in to this game off of a solid road win over 1st place Richmond, 82-77 on Sunday…That road win for the Patriots marked the first time that they have won 5 of its first 6 road games in program history…In addition, the Patriots also come in on a roll going 12-3 in their last 15 games.

George Washington, on the other hand, comes into this one losing 3 of their last 4 and 5 of their last 7 games…The Colonials did break a 3 game losing streak by beating Duquesne in their last game…But, it was far from a dominant or impressive win as the Dukies are 2nd to last in the standing and the Colonials only won the game by 2 points, 65-63.

George Washington averages 68.4 ppg and shoots just 41.1% from field…And, their offense could struggle even more in this one, as one of their most important players, junior guard Watanabe, could miss this game due to a calf injury…Watanabe’s lost is a big one for the Colonial’s as he is 2nd on the team in scoring, averaging 13.4 ppg…He is also 4th on the team in rebounding, averaging 5.0 rpg…And, he also ranks near the top of the team in assist, steals and also blocks per game, where he leads the team with his 1.3 blocks per game average.

Side Note: In George Washington’s win over Duquesne, Watanabe led the Colonials with 15 points, 3 blocks and 5 assist, in the 2 point win.

Lastly, I do believe that the firing of HC Lonergan has affected this team’s chemistry and consistency as interim coach Joseph, just seems to struggle with getting this team to play up to their talents…Tonight, I believe that they will again struggle on the road and especially as they will be facing a hungry home team that will be looking for some payback.

KEY #2:…..The Patriots are 11-2 when they outrebound their opponents.

George Mason is currently ranked 12th in the nation averaging 41 rebounds per game…They also are ranked 26th in the nation in rebounding margin at +7.0 rpg.

The Patriots board bangin’ is led by senior guard Moore, who is the top rebounding guard in the nation averaging 10.9 rpg…He is also ranked 3rd in the country in defensive rebounding per game, averaging 8.9 rpg…And lastly, Moore is ranked 8th overall in rebounding and is the only guard with 12+ double-doubles.

Side Note: George Mason, had a +10.5 rebounding margin edge vs their non-conference opponents where they went 10-3.

George Mason in their last 3 games has out-boarded their conference opponents and had a rebounding margin of +5.3…In today’s game, if GW’s 6’9” Watanabe is out or at least limited due to his lower leg injury, that will give the Patriots a good edge to outrebound the Colonials, who are also a solid rebounding team.



KEY #3:……The Colonials defense struggles on the road.

GW and GM have almost identical overall stats in scoring defense, where both give up an average of 69 ppg…However, that is about where the defensive similarities end…For one, the Colonials is just 2-7 on the road this season…And on the road, their defense has struggled as they are allowing opponents to average 74.4 ppg, 47.7% shooting from the field, 43.7% from long range and 74.0% from the line.

The Patriots, on the other hand, are just 6-4 in their home games…However, it is still where their defense is playing some solid ball…In their home games, they’re allowing 69.1 ppg…But, they are holding opponents to just 42.1% shooting from the field and more importantly just 30.6% shooting from long range.

Side Note: George Mason is ranked 34th in the nation in 3pt FG% defense allowing just 31% from long range.

The Patriots stout 3pt FG% defense, especially at home, is very important as the Colonial’s offense takes a lot of 3 pointers and is 1st in the conference with 9 three-pointers made per game and 2nd in 3pt FG% at 40.3%…The Patriots are last in the league averaging just 5.5 three-pointers made per game, so their solid play at defending the arc will definitely be a major focus for them in today’s game.

Side Note: George Washington is ranked 12th in the conference in 2pt FG% defense allowing 44.3% from the field…They are also ranked 12th in the conference in 3pt FG% defense allowing 38.1% shooting from long range.

OTHER KEYS:….These should favor the Patriots.

-The Patriots have the better scoring offense averaging 74.9 ppg…compared to the Colonials 12th ranked scoring offense that averages 68.4 ppg.

-The Patriots are ranked 5th in the conference with a scoring margin of +5.1…compared to the Colonials, who have a scoring margin of -1.5, which ranks 12th in the conference.

-The Colonials are also last in the conference in turnovers, at -3.79 pg.

-The Patriots in home games average getting to the line a solid 24 times…compared to 19 FT attempts for the Colonials in road games.

Bottom line is the Colonials has beaten the Patriots in the last 6 games between the two…And, they are also coming off a season where they won the NIT tournament…But, this seasons team is not the same one as last season…For one, HC Lonergan is no longer the coach and the Colonials under interim coach Joseph has struggled this season to find consistency.

George Mason also has struggled of late to put together a back to back winning streak…But, they are coming off a huge upset of 1st place Richmond on the road and that has to boost their confidence a lot…They are also playing this game at home, where they have played their best on the defensive end…George Washington has currently lost 5 of their last 7 games…and today, they will be without guard Watanabe, who is a very valuable piece to both their offense and defense.

George Mason’s solid defense at defending the arc, should be able to keep the Colonials long range threat in check…In addition, their solid play on the boards should also give the Patriots an advantage in outrebounding the Colonials, and especially off of missed long range shots…The Patriots own the advantage offensively with 74.9 points per game (157th nationally) and 45 percent shooting efficiency…and that along with their solid defensive play should be enough to provide the balance they need to get the W on their floor today…Remember, the saying “You live by the 3…You die by the 3”…The Patriots don’t live by the 3, but they do defend it very well…….GO PATS!

Side Note: George Washington is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 overall.

Side Note: George Washington is 4-9 ATS in their last 13 after an ATS loss.

Side Note: George Washington is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win.

Side Note: George Mason is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games played on Weds.

Side Note: George Mason is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs teams with a winning SU record.

Side Note: George Mason is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall.

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