A few weeks ago I wrote an article answering a question we had received from one of our readers regarding game selection filters. More specifically, the reader wanted to know how I reduced a slate of 40 to 50 games (which can include sides, totals, and more) down to a manageable number of games to handicap for the week.
You can read the article “Betting on college football – Game selection filters” here. And if you get the chance, please take the time to read some of the comments, especially ERockMoney’s (@ERockMoney77) thoughts on the subject.
While working on the article I became curious how others filtered games each week. So I decided to ask a few of my college football handicapping acquaintances.
Trentmoney – I’ve been trading college football handicapping information and ideas with Trent since 2006. We’ll hopefully get him to contribute some of his thoughts and picks throughout this upcoming season.
Have a plan going in. If you don’t get what you want then pass. Last year I really liked South Carolina against ECU in their opener. I felt they had major advantages. I wanted to take it up to 17 (win under three scores, push at 17). The line was 20.5/21, so I talked myself into it since it’s not MORE than three scores, even though I wanted less than three scores.
I got backdoored with :30 left as South Carolina won by 19. That game should have been filtered out but since it was opening day and I had the itch and there wasn’t anything else I liked I took it and lost when I should have passed. Lost opportunity costs less than lost money.
Brian Edwards – Brian Edwards Sports: I sent a Q & A to about two dozen college football handicappers and Brian was one of only two whose responses I thought had any value to our readers. We will hear more about betting on college football from Brian over the next few weeks.
– Brian Edwards
So Trent and Brian are more or less advising the same thing, don’t bet on what you don’t know.
Patrick Donovan – The Sports Boss: Patrick was the other respondent to my college football handicapping Q & A to provide some really good, informative answers.
If you see a spread you think is off, and it appears to be a lock for one side, often times the other side comes through. Keep that in mind, you want to bet games that have the right line and through your work you find value, not games where the spread looks wrong and you bet the team it seems to be favoring.
– Patrick Donovan
I really liked this piece of information because I had never really thought of it like that before, and I have often found myself in the situation that Patrick talks about in terms of seeing a spread you think is off and ending up losing that particular bet.
I would suggest that if you see a spread that you think is way off, take some extra time to analyze that game, because a lot of times the line usually ends up not being “off” after all.
Please share with us some of the filters you use when betting on college football in the comments section below. Thanks – Pez.